2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Sol]

Here's my Virginia fair map.

That Yellow district is incredibly ugly.

[SevenEleven]

I changed it to this:

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I changed it to this:

I'd swap Roanoke over to yellow in exchange for those four southern counties.

[dbatche3]

My attempt at a fair map. Didn't attempt to make this a gerrymander one way or the other, you be the judge if I was successful:



And some summary statistics:

District	Color	Clinton %	Trump %	Partisan Lean (2012-18)	Notes
1	Dark Blue	47.9	46.4	D+6.0
2	Dark Green	45.7	48.2	D+3.9
3	Dark Purple	61.5	33.0	D+33.4	45.3% Black
4	Red	58.9	36.3	D+25.6	42.6% Black
5	Yellow	42.7	52.1	R+5.3
6	Jade	33.6	60.6	R+21.8
7	Brown	42.9	51.0	R+5.1
8	Light Purple	72.8	20.3	D+52.2
9	Light Blue	27.4	68.2	R+33.6
10	Pink	58.6	34.4	D+26.1
11	Chartreuse	55.2	38.0	D+19.0

In a D wave year, this could be 9-2 D; in an R wave year, this could be 6-5 R. By taking in more of Prince William County, the 1st District gets quite a bit more Democratic. By contrast, the 11th District goes out into Fauquier County and gets quite a bit more Republican, though probably not enough to make it competitive.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

^ That's one of the best VA maps I've seen.

[Storr]

^ That's one of the best VA maps I've seen.

I agree. The most important thing for me is the "look" test, and this map simply looks good. The one issue I could see would be that Spanberger's 7th district gets ever so slightly more (non Atlas) red. Her current district went for Trump 50-44% in 2016.

[LimoLiberal]

Here's my attempt at a map the commission might pass. I based it partially off the current map with some incumbent protection. This is a 5-4-2 map with the two competitive districts improved for Luria and Spanberger. I'm fairly new to this so all feedback is welcome.

I know the numbering is off.



VA-01: Trump 65-31, Gillespie 64-35, Safe R (Morgan Griffith)
VA-02: Trump 62-34, Gillespie 64-36, Safe R (Bob Good)
VA-03: Trump 61-33, Gillespie 62-37, Safe R (Ben Cline)
VA-04: Clinton 62-34, Northam 64-35, Safe D and 45% BVAP (Don McEachin)
VA-05 (yellow): Clinton 48-45, Northam 53-46, Lean D but Likely D for Spanberger (Abigail Spanberger)
VA-06: Clinton 60-33, Northam 65-34, Safe D (Jennifer Wexton)
VA-07 (brown): Clinton 73-20, Northam 76-23, Safe D (Don Beyer)
VA-08: Clinton 59-35, Northam 62-37, Safe D (Gerry Connolly)
VA-09: Trump 52-42, Gillespie 53-46, Likely R (Rob Wittman) <- Kaine actually won this district by a point
VA-10: Clinton 59-36, Northam 64-34, Safe D and 42% BVAP (Bobby Scott)
VA-11: Trump 47-47, Northam 53-46, Tossup but Lean D for Luria (Elaine Luria)

[lfromnj]

^ That's one of the best VA maps I've seen.

I agree. The most important thing for me is the "look" test, and this map simply looks good. The one issue I could see would be that Spanberger's 7th district gets ever so slightly more (non Atlas) red. Her current district went for Trump 50-44% in 2016.

Why is that an issue?
I thought the goal was a fair map/non gerrymandered map? The reason it moves right is because VA 7 should probably have Hanover county in  Richmond Suburban district.

Unless the problem you speak of is that the commission wouldn't be happy with that map.  Well that would be pretty obvious considering both Spanberger and Whitman get hurt pretty bad.
Anyway I do love Sev calling my map a GOP gerrymander when the only partisan difference was shifting 1 district to the right by 2 points. Anyway I personally prefer my NOVA exurban district with Charlottesville so I don't get why people think my decision was partisan while he makes a nearly locked 8-3 map with the exception of Richmond.

[lfromnj]

My attempt at a fair map. Didn't attempt to make this a gerrymander one way or the other, you be the judge if I was successful:



And some summary statistics:

District	Color	Clinton %	Trump %	Partisan Lean (2012-18)	Notes
1	Dark Blue	47.9	46.4	D+6.0
2	Dark Green	45.7	48.2	D+3.9
3	Dark Purple	61.5	33.0	D+33.4	45.3% Black
4	Red	58.9	36.3	D+25.6	42.6% Black
5	Yellow	42.7	52.1	R+5.3
6	Jade	33.6	60.6	R+21.8
7	Brown	42.9	51.0	R+5.1
8	Light Purple	72.8	20.3	D+52.2
9	Light Blue	27.4	68.2	R+33.6
10	Pink	58.6	34.4	D+26.1
11	Chartreuse	55.2	38.0	D+19.0

In a D wave year, this could be 9-2 D; in an R wave year, this could be 6-5 R. By taking in more of Prince William County, the 1st District gets quite a bit more Democratic. By contrast, the 11th District goes out into Fauquier County and gets quite a bit more Republican, though probably not enough to make it competitive.

I still don't agree with the NOVA split like that, but at least here its not a gerrymander by giving Fairfax county incredible influence over 4 districts when its stuck into a corner and almost perfectly fits 2 with Arlington and Alexandria added.Other than NOVA I gotta say the map is very nice, The Richmond district doesn't split Richmond and puts in Hanover and you used the smart and easy choice for the VA beach district by taking Chesapeake.
If I was working from your map I would personally make VA 1 finish taking Caroline and King William county and then do a rotation between VA 7/VA5/VA 11 /VA 1 to remove that county split and region split(Tidewater) although that make VA 5 a bit too narrow and ugly?

[lfromnj]

Anyway if I was forced to make the NOVA triple road split I don't feel eastern PWC and the tidewater have too little in common  to really do that. This version does split the Fredricksburg metro however with the taking of Spotsylvania county.

The partisanship of VA 1/VA2/VA7/ are all the same as dbatches map so my changing of their map is purely for non partisan purposes.

[heatcharger]

A lot of people have been congratulating me on making such a good congressional map of Virginia:

Fairfax County:

District	Color	Clinton %	Trump %	Northam %	Gillespie %	Kaine %	Stewart %
1	Dark Blue	52.6	41.0	56.1	42.7	60.1	37.8
2	Dark Green	47.3	47.6	50.8	48.1	53.5	44.9
3	Dark Purple	60.8	33.0	64.3	34.5	68.2	29.8
4	Red	49.5	44.1	56.0	42.8	57.9	39.9
5	Yellow	43.2	50.7	47.9	50.9	50.8	47.0
6	Jade	31.5	64.0	33.4	65.5	36.4	62.0
7	Brown	53.6	41.9	57.0	41.9	59.4	39.1
8	Light Purple	67.7	25.5	71.8	27.2	74.2	23.3
9	Light Blue	27.4	67.7	31.7	67.0	35.4	62.9
10	Pink	45.4	48.2	49.9	49.0	53.7	44.2
11	Chartreuse	64.7	28.3	68.4	30.6	71.2	26.6

Assorted thoughts:
VA-5: Split UVA in a slightly ugly fashion, but enjoyed uniting the district with our friends at UMW and Liberty. Virginia Tech almost made it in the competitive district, but instead are condemned to VA-9.
VA-10: The failson district -- CIA/Raytheon thugs are reunited with their kids at JMU.
VA-11: Most high school rivalries are preserved.

[cvparty]

Anyway if I was forced to make the NOVA triple road split I don't feel eastern PWC and the tidewater have too little in common  to really do that. This version does split the Fredricksburg metro however with the taking of Spotsylvania county.

The partisanship of VA 1/VA2/VA7/ are all the same as dbatches map so my changing of their map is purely for non partisan purposes.

i kinda like this map, but keep loudoun county whole with CD 10. demographically makes no sense to put any part of loudoun with the shenandoah valley

[lfromnj]

And here's a map which tries to barely respect COIs but maximize competitive district. VA 6th and the 9th are combined to create room for a swing Charlottesville seat at Trump +4
Then VA 10th is pushed out despite massive population growth to make it Likely D at Clinton +6
VA 1st is then pushed in for a Clinton +1 district
Finally VA 7th and VA 2 are Trump +7 and Trump +3 respectively. Obviously has the split of the Shenandoah and VA 5 is a bit ugly but other than that its honestly not that bad. With some precint trades between VA 10 and 11 you can even make VA 10 Lean D at Clinton +3

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What are Lurias chances lfromnj?
Will she get screwed over by the new law?

[S019]

A lot of people have been congratulating me on making such a good congressional map of Virginia:

Fairfax County:

District	Color	Clinton %	Trump %	Northam %	Gillespie %	Kaine %	Stewart %
1	Dark Blue	52.6	41.0	56.1	42.7	60.1	37.8
2	Dark Green	47.3	47.6	50.8	48.1	53.5	44.9
3	Dark Purple	60.8	33.0	64.3	34.5	68.2	29.8
4	Red	49.5	44.1	56.0	42.8	57.9	39.9
5	Yellow	43.2	50.7	47.9	50.9	50.8	47.0
6	Jade	31.5	64.0	33.4	65.5	36.4	62.0
7	Brown	53.6	41.9	57.0	41.9	59.4	39.1
8	Light Purple	67.7	25.5	71.8	27.2	74.2	23.3
9	Light Blue	27.4	67.7	31.7	67.0	35.4	62.9
10	Pink	45.4	48.2	49.9	49.0	53.7	44.2
11	Chartreuse	64.7	28.3	68.4	30.6	71.2	26.6

Assorted thoughts:
VA-5: Split UVA in a slightly ugly fashion, but enjoyed uniting the district with our friends at UMW and Liberty. Virginia Tech almost made it in the competitive district, but instead are condemned to VA-9.
VA-10: The failson district -- CIA/Raytheon thugs are reunited with their kids at JMU.
VA-11: Most high school rivalries are preserved.

This map is an abomination. First of all, DelMarVA basically has to pair with Virginia Beach due to road connections. I'm not sure if the 7th has enough minorities in it. Trying to pair all of Loudoun with Shenadoah would only happen in a GOP gerrymander. I'm unsure what the 5th and 6th are supposed to accomplish. Also county lines would be nice, because I can't properly analyze the 1st, the way that you drew it. Also there is absolutely no need to give Richmond its own seat and very few maps will do that. Most maps will put in either the 4th which is the Newport News  to Richmond minority seat or in the suburban Henrico based 7th. The quad cut of Fairfax just seems unnecessary, giving McLean to the 10th actually makes some sense, given how it and Great Falls are different than places like Reston, but I don't get the logic behind pushing the 1st into parts of Fairfax.

[MAPZZ]

A lot of people have been congratulating me on making such a good congressional map of Virginia:

Fairfax County:

District	Color	Clinton %	Trump %	Northam %	Gillespie %	Kaine %	Stewart %
1	Dark Blue	52.6	41.0	56.1	42.7	60.1	37.8
2	Dark Green	47.3	47.6	50.8	48.1	53.5	44.9
3	Dark Purple	60.8	33.0	64.3	34.5	68.2	29.8
4	Red	49.5	44.1	56.0	42.8	57.9	39.9
5	Yellow	43.2	50.7	47.9	50.9	50.8	47.0
6	Jade	31.5	64.0	33.4	65.5	36.4	62.0
7	Brown	53.6	41.9	57.0	41.9	59.4	39.1
8	Light Purple	67.7	25.5	71.8	27.2	74.2	23.3
9	Light Blue	27.4	67.7	31.7	67.0	35.4	62.9
10	Pink	45.4	48.2	49.9	49.0	53.7	44.2
11	Chartreuse	64.7	28.3	68.4	30.6	71.2	26.6

Assorted thoughts:
VA-5: Split UVA in a slightly ugly fashion, but enjoyed uniting the district with our friends at UMW and Liberty. Virginia Tech almost made it in the competitive district, but instead are condemned to VA-9.
VA-10: The failson district -- CIA/Raytheon thugs are reunited with their kids at JMU.
VA-11: Most high school rivalries are preserved.

This map is an abomination. First of all, DelMarVA basically has to pair with Virginia Beach due to road connections. I'm not sure if the 7th has enough minorities in it. Trying to pair all of Loudoun with Shenadoah would only happen in a GOP gerrymander. I'm unsure what the 5th and 6th are supposed to accomplish. Also county lines would be nice, because I can't properly analyze the 1st, the way that you drew it. Also there is absolutely no need to give Richmond its own seat and very few maps will do that. Most maps will put in either the 4th which is the Newport News  to Richmond minority seat or in the suburban Henrico based 7th. The quad cut of Fairfax just seems unnecessary, giving McLean to the 10th actually makes some sense, given how it and Great Falls are different than places like Reston, but I don't get the logic behind pushing the 1st into parts of Fairfax.

Successfully trolled

[Idaho Conservative]

pretty solid 5-1-5 map the court could draw.  Not a gerrymander but tilts R.  https://davesredistricting.org/join/2bf45947-9f8c-441d-b02c-f1e566607039

[Nyvin]

Slightly different take.   I'm a big fan of the Shenandoah Valley district btw.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c7efb37e-9149-41af-8cbb-1cef67d1af22

[Frodo]

Slightly different take.   I'm a big fan of the Shenandoah Valley district btw.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c7efb37e-9149-41af-8cbb-1cef67d1af22

Now that is a really good map.  Hopefully that is the map that my state will adopt for the rest of the decade....

[Storr]

^ That's one of the best VA maps I've seen.

I agree. The most important thing for me is the "look" test, and this map simply looks good. The one issue I could see would be that Spanberger's 7th district gets ever so slightly more (non Atlas) red. Her current district went for Trump 50-44% in 2016.

Why is that an issue?
I thought the goal was a fair map/non gerrymandered map? The reason it moves right is because VA 7 should probably have Hanover county in  Richmond Suburban district.

Unless the problem you speak of is that the commission wouldn't be happy with that map.  Well that would be pretty obvious considering both Spanberger and Whitman get hurt pretty bad.
Anyway I do love Sev calling my map a GOP gerrymander when the only partisan difference was shifting 1 district to the right by 2 points. Anyway I personally prefer my NOVA exurban district with Charlottesville so I don't get why people think my decision was partisan while he makes a nearly locked 8-3 map with the exception of Richmond.

I mean it as an issue in that I doubt Spanberger would be happy about that.

[GALeftist]

So is it basically guaranteed that redistricting will get kicked to the Supreme Court?

[LimoLiberal]

The redistricting amendment isn't as secure as it seems. The new Wason Center poll had it leading 48-28 but Republicans were opposed to it by a 10 point margin. That lead may seem insurmountable but get this: the Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, and other local democratic committees are urging a "no" vote and the Democratic sample ballots will reflect that. There will undoubtedly be Democrats that hear about the redistricting amendment in vague terms and support it prior to the election but the check next to the "no" on the sample ballot will flip their vote. This all creates the opportunity for an unwieldy coalition of hardcore Virginia Republicans and NoVA Democrats to defeat the amendment.

[Frodo]

The redistricting amendment isn't as secure as it seems. The new Wason Center poll had it leading 48-28 but Republicans were opposed to it by a 10 point margin. That lead may seem insurmountable but get this: the Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, and other local democratic committees are urging a "no" vote and the Democratic sample ballots will reflect that. There will undoubtedly be Democrats that hear about the redistricting amendment in vague terms and support it prior to the election but the check next to the "no" on the sample ballot will flip their vote. This all creates the opportunity for an unwieldy coalition of hardcore Virginia Republicans and NoVA Democrats to defeat the amendment.

This post did not age well. 

[SevenEleven]

The redistricting amendment isn't as secure as it seems. The new Wason Center poll had it leading 48-28 but Republicans were opposed to it by a 10 point margin. That lead may seem insurmountable but get this: the Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, and other local democratic committees are urging a "no" vote and the Democratic sample ballots will reflect that. There will undoubtedly be Democrats that hear about the redistricting amendment in vague terms and support it prior to the election but the check next to the "no" on the sample ballot will flip their vote. This all creates the opportunity for an unwieldy coalition of hardcore Virginia Republicans and NoVA Democrats to defeat the amendment.

This post did not age well. 

It wasn't a good post back in September. 🤷

[S019]

VA Reps may push the 5-1 court to do something like this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce45050-8fd6-4923-9e68-81b01682d91d


5 and 7 are the leftovers, but the leftovers clearly benefit the GOP, the VRA seats are strengthened, which just happens to help shore up 2, and Albemarle honestly doesn't have a clear place to go, so I can see the 5-1 court just sticking it in Appalachia. In a vacuum, each of these decisions can clearly be justified as fine pairings, but on the broader scale, the side effects create a blatantly lopsided map, 6 might be vulnerable, but Appalachia is probably inelastic enough, 7 might also be vulnerable, but is currently D held anyways, I would not be shocked if the final map looks more like this than the quad cuts of Fairfax being proposed in this thread, and other than the NoVA seats, this map isn't even that ugly.