Does Beshear's win mean that the LA Gubernatorial Race is Lean D
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  Does Beshear's win mean that the LA Gubernatorial Race is Lean D		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Does Beshear's win mean that the LA Gubernatorial Race is Lean D  (Read 421 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« on: November 06, 2019, 01:22:07 PM »
LA is more Dem than KY and Bel Edwards is a popular governor so if Dems won in KY they should be able to win this race .


So my rating goes from : Tossup/Tilt D -> Lean D
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
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« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2019, 01:24:37 PM »
Edwards should win about as well as Reeves, if not more
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2019, 01:29:43 PM »
No
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andjey
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2019, 01:36:43 PM »
No, it's mean that LA-Gov is Likely D
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2019, 01:43:30 PM »
Yeah, about the same way Bevin's surprisingly lopsided win in 2015 meant that LA-GOV 2015 was Lean R.
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Computer89
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« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2019, 01:47:10 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on November 06, 2019, 01:43:30 PM
Yeah, about the same way Bevin's surprisingly lopsided win in 2015 meant that LA-GOV 2015 was Lean R.

LA is more Dem than KY and has been since at least 1996
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« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2019, 01:53:46 PM »
No, since they're different races with different dynamics. If Bevin were the Governor of Louisiana, equally unpopular, and running against Beshear, maybe it would make sense to change the rating of this race as well. Still a Toss-Up.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2019, 02:00:03 PM »
Quote from: Old School Republican on November 06, 2019, 01:47:10 PM
Quote from: MT Treasurer on November 06, 2019, 01:43:30 PM
Yeah, about the same way Bevin's surprisingly lopsided win in 2015 meant that LA-GOV 2015 was Lean R.

LA is more Dem than KY and has been since at least 1996

In presidential races, yes, but I’m not sure if it’s as flexible as KY in state/Senate elections nowadays unless the Republican is particularly unpopular or odious like Vitter.

I think JBE will win (narrowly), but you could just as well point to Hood's loss (a Democrat with a similar profile in a state with similar demographics) to justify a Tossup rating.

Like xingkerui said, different states with different races with different dynamics. You’re comparing apples to oranges.
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Pericles
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2019, 03:22:35 PM »
Maybe Tilt D but Louisiana is different from Kentucky. Atlas overreacted to the primary and became too pessimistic for JBE, and now seems to be overreacting to the Kentucky results. This race has been Tilt D, I could see Rispone winning (Louisiana seems to like to break patterns) but JBE was always the favorite and my estimate rn is he wins by 4 points.
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2019, 03:26:28 PM »
I saw it LA as Tilt D before last night and still see it that way (FTR, I'd have rated Kentucky Tilt to Lean R).
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Solid4096
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« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2019, 03:31:07 PM »
Still Tilt R. Though if Bel Edwards wins, that moves IN-GOV 2020 to Tilt D.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2019, 03:58:27 PM »
No, not really. There is few connections between gubernatorial races (contrary to senatorial races for example)
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