PA Statewide Elections 2019

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Oh we're well aware haha.  

You can't watch a Youtube video 'round these parts without Megan McCarthy King (R) running a 5-second pre-roll ad touting her service on putting away drug runners and child molesters.  (Not making a partisan statement one way or the other, just noting that it seems as though both sides have been putting a lot of money into these seats). 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Just voted near University City.  

I was definitely on the lower end of the voters present in terms of age. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So, it feels like there is mixed results in the suburbs? The Delco and Chester council news is great, but the statewide races were very wonky.

These aren't *directly* comparable, but in Chester, Casey won by 20% last year, while Dems only 7.6% this year (not even Clinton's margin), while in Delco, Clinton won by 22% and Casey by *31%* yet Dems only added up to +10% in the statewide result. I know the suburbs are more moderate sometimes downballot, but this seems like a serious and odd downward trend, especially when the council seats all flipped blue.

Meanwhile, WTF happened in Dauphin? Clinton +3 and Casey +11 to Reps adding up to +7 there yesterday.

In the Trump flip areas, Lackawanna (Clinton +3.5, Casey +23.2), went to the Dems by 9%, while Erie (Trump +1.6, Casey +18.4) went to the Dems by 2%.

Even my home county, Montgomery disappointed me a bit. We went 22% by Dems, but that's only on par with Clinton (+21) and way less than Casey (+32).

Philly still has 100 precincts left to report and Northampton 150, plus a few other outstanding ones (~350 in total), so hoping that Green-Hawkins can somehow pull out a win for 2nd place.

I know these statewide races can not be reflective of what's happening, but it's still a bit dissapointing. Was hoping for a way better result from Dems, but turnout in my county, Montco, for example, was only 37%, compared to 67% last year.

Probably has to do in large part to turnout.  I can almost guarantee you that I was in the vast minority of people in my age bracket of 18-25 that even bothered to vote.  In contrast, the 65+ crowd definitely kept up the trend of getting out and voting, rain or shine.  When I voted near Uni City, I was definitely the youngest person in the room by at least forty years.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

But lower turnout is not uniformly good for Republicans though as its more educated voters who turn out disproportionately when turnout is lower and Republicans in PA do better with less educated voters offsetting the gains they might make with younger voters not turning out as much.

Sure, but I'm just pointing out for him that he doesn't really have any reason to be bummed by margins. The electorate demographics are like apples to oranges compared to normal elections.

You're right. And I mean, I'm more than happy considering there is headlines like the one below. I was just hoping the statewide races would do a bit better for Dems. A +2 margin is still good, but the margins in places like Dauphin, Erie, Chester, Delco for the statewide election were kind of meh, but again, it's not necessarily representative.

And you're right... in a lower turnout election where older, more Rep voters are expected to come out, and Dems still win by +2 statewide, that's not bad at all.

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1192381331470245888

I get your disappointment and this is a totally personal anecdote, but as I've said before, I saw at least five people with walkers at the polls when I went to vote.  I'm going to safely say that EVERYBODY in line was old enough to be grandmother/grandfather.  Doesn't help that I look like I'm fourteen haha but I digress.  

Anyway, it could've been the time of day (was early before my classes), but this wasn't a "sexy" election.  Student groups weren't organizing here on campus to "GET OUT THE VOTE FOR SUPERIOR COURT!".  

While I think the gains (or, at least, the continued trends) in the suburbs should be encouraging for PA Dems, nobody -- Republican, Democrat, or otherwise -- should be using the elections here as ironclad evidence for how their party will do in 2020.