PA Statewide Elections 2019

[wbrocks67]

Not many people realize but PA has one statewide election today for Superior Court Judge. Very interested to see what the total Dem and R %s look like.

I'd bet on Daniel McCaffrey getting the one spot, and likely Amanda Green-Hawkins the other, but Reps have also been spending money.

Results - https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Oh we're well aware haha.  

You can't watch a Youtube video 'round these parts without Megan McCarthy King (R) running a 5-second pre-roll ad touting her service on putting away drug runners and child molesters.  (Not making a partisan statement one way or the other, just noting that it seems as though both sides have been putting a lot of money into these seats). 

[wbrocks67]

Oh we're well aware haha.  

You can't watch a Youtube video 'round these parts without Megan McCarthy King (R) running a 5-second pre-roll ad touting her service on putting away drug runners and child molesters.  (Not making a partisan statement one way or the other, just noting that it seems as though both sides have been putting a lot of money into these seats). 

I've noticed a LOT of TV ads for the Dems, but I've also seen ads AGAINST Megan McCarthy King, so I'm assuming they see her as the biggest threat

[Lambsbread]

Very excited to vote for Amanda Green-Hawkins later and McCaffery too

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/sixtysixwards/status/1191767031282065408

Interesting yet unsurprising map, the liberal white regions are turning out the most. 

[wbrocks67]

What's interesting is how it will compare to 2017's general. Reps outright won the Supreme Court seat by 4.6%, while Dems won the total vote for Superior Court by 5.7%.

Dems won Commonwealth by a slim 1%.

Justice of the Supreme Court - 2017 General
Sallie Mundy (R) 52.3%
Dwayne Woodruff (D) 47.7%

Judge of the Superior Court - 2017 General
Dems 52.2%
Reps 46.5%

Judge of the Commonwealth Court - 2017 General
Dems 50.5%
Reps 49.5%

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Just voted near University City.  

I was definitely on the lower end of the voters present in terms of age. 

[ctherainbow]

Oh we're well aware haha.  

You can't watch a Youtube video 'round these parts without Megan McCarthy King (R) running a 5-second pre-roll ad touting her service on putting away drug runners and child molesters.  (Not making a partisan statement one way or the other, just noting that it seems as though both sides have been putting a lot of money into these seats).  

SAME.  All her ads (TV/YouTube) seem to focus on the fact that she... did her job like she was supposed to?  It really reflects the sad state of PA's state politics when that's a talking point.    

[wbrocks67]

Philly seems to be having very strong turnout

https://twitter.com/sixtysixwards/status/1191859332780109824

[wbrocks67]

The website is broken, I think

https://electionreturns.pa.gov/#

[ctherainbow]

It's been interesting to watch the returns on the statewide Superior Court elections.  Dauphin County in particular surprised me; even the weaker-performing of the two Republicans did 3 points better than the best-performing Dem in Dauphin.  Given that the battle in 2020 between DePasquale and Perry for the Dauphin Co US congressional district is likely to be a hard-fought one, and with the Dauphin-based state senate seat one of three the Dems need to flip to seize control of the state senate, it'll be interesting to see just how close the down-ballot margins are in Dauphin in 2020.

[Orser67]

Still waiting on the statewide election results, though it looks one Republican and one Democrat might end up winning the two major statewide judicial races.

Democrats did quite well in elections held in the suburban counties around Philadelphia. The party won a majority on the Chester County Board of Commissioners for the first time in history, a majority on the Delaware County Council for the first time since the Civil War, and it looks like they'll win a majority on the Bucks County Board of Commissioners for the first time since the 1980s. They also defended their majority on the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners, and obviously kept their majority on the Philadelphia City Council. Democrats also some other races for e.g. Delaware County District Attorney.

[windjammer]

Still waiting on the statewide election results, though it looks one Republican and one Democrat might end up winning the two major statewide judicial races.

Democrats did quite well in elections held in the suburban counties around Philadelphia. The party won a majority on the Chester County Board of Commissioners for the first time in history, a majority on the Delaware County Council for the first time since the Civil War, and it looks like they'll win a majority on the Bucks County Board of Commissioners for the first time since the 1980s. They also defended their majority on the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners, and obviously kept their majority on the Philadelphia City Council. Democrats also some other races for e.g. Delaware County District Attorney.

Have they picked up a seat or it's the statut quo?

[ctherainbow]

Have they picked up a seat or it's the statut quo?

If you're referring to the Superior Court, the two vacancies were one Dem aging out and one Pub not standing for retention, so one Dem and one Pub winning tonight would maintain the status quo on the court.

[ctherainbow]

Northampton County(for non-Pennsylvanians, a heavily populated swing county) is having problems with their voting machines and is doing a complete paper ballot recount.  The Superior Court races could be left hanging until tomorrow afternoon.   

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Not a statewide race, but things aren’t getting any better for the GOP in the philly suburbs. They got crushed in Del co.

https://twitter.com/CBSPhilly/status/1191946706847440897?s=20

[wbrocks67]

So, it feels like there is mixed results in the suburbs? The Delco and Chester council news is great, but the statewide races were very wonky.

These aren't *directly* comparable, but in Chester, Casey won by 20% last year, while Dems only 7.6% this year (not even Clinton's margin), while in Delco, Clinton won by 22% and Casey by *31%* yet Dems only added up to +10% in the statewide result. I know the suburbs are more moderate sometimes downballot, but this seems like a serious and odd downward trend, especially when the council seats all flipped blue.

Meanwhile, WTF happened in Dauphin? Clinton +3 and Casey +11 to Reps adding up to +7 there yesterday.

In the Trump flip areas, Lackawanna (Clinton +3.5, Casey +23.2), went to the Dems by 9%, while Erie (Trump +1.6, Casey +18.4) went to the Dems by 2%.

Even my home county, Montgomery disappointed me a bit. We went 22% by Dems, but that's only on par with Clinton (+21) and way less than Casey (+32).

Philly still has 100 precincts left to report and Northampton 150, plus a few other outstanding ones (~350 in total), so hoping that Green-Hawkins can somehow pull out a win for 2nd place.

I know these statewide races can not be reflective of what's happening, but it's still a bit dissapointing. Was hoping for a way better result from Dems, but turnout in my county, Montco, for example, was only 37%, compared to 67% last year.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So, it feels like there is mixed results in the suburbs? The Delco and Chester council news is great, but the statewide races were very wonky.

These aren't *directly* comparable, but in Chester, Casey won by 20% last year, while Dems only 7.6% this year (not even Clinton's margin), while in Delco, Clinton won by 22% and Casey by *31%* yet Dems only added up to +10% in the statewide result. I know the suburbs are more moderate sometimes downballot, but this seems like a serious and odd downward trend, especially when the council seats all flipped blue.

Meanwhile, WTF happened in Dauphin? Clinton +3 and Casey +11 to Reps adding up to +7 there yesterday.

In the Trump flip areas, Lackawanna (Clinton +3.5, Casey +23.2), went to the Dems by 9%, while Erie (Trump +1.6, Casey +18.4) went to the Dems by 2%.

Even my home county, Montgomery disappointed me a bit. We went 22% by Dems, but that's only on par with Clinton (+21) and way less than Casey (+32).

Philly still has 100 precincts left to report and Northampton 150, plus a few other outstanding ones (~350 in total), so hoping that Green-Hawkins can somehow pull out a win for 2nd place.

I know these statewide races can not be reflective of what's happening, but it's still a bit dissapointing. Was hoping for a way better result from Dems, but turnout in my county, Montco, for example, was only 37%, compared to 67% last year.

Probably has to do in large part to turnout.  I can almost guarantee you that I was in the vast minority of people in my age bracket of 18-25 that even bothered to vote.  In contrast, the 65+ crowd definitely kept up the trend of getting out and voting, rain or shine.  When I voted near Uni City, I was definitely the youngest person in the room by at least forty years.  

[Oryxslayer]

So, it feels like there is mixed results in the suburbs? The Delco and Chester council news is great, but the statewide races were very wonky.

These aren't *directly* comparable, but in Chester, Casey won by 20% last year, while Dems only 7.6% this year (not even Clinton's margin), while in Delco, Clinton won by 22% and Casey by *31%* yet Dems only added up to +10% in the statewide result. I know the suburbs are more moderate sometimes downballot, but this seems like a serious and odd downward trend, especially when the council seats all flipped blue.

Meanwhile, WTF happened in Dauphin? Clinton +3 and Casey +11 to Reps adding up to +7 there yesterday.

In the Trump flip areas, Lackawanna (Clinton +3.5, Casey +23.2), went to the Dems by 9%, while Erie (Trump +1.6, Casey +18.4) went to the Dems by 2%.

Even my home county, Montgomery disappointed me a bit. We went 22% by Dems, but that's only on par with Clinton (+21) and way less than Casey (+32).

Philly still has 100 precincts left to report and Northampton 150, plus a few other outstanding ones (~350 in total), so hoping that Green-Hawkins can somehow pull out a win for 2nd place.

I know these statewide races can not be reflective of what's happening, but it's still a bit dissapointing. Was hoping for a way better result from Dems, but turnout in my county, Montco, for example, was only 37%, compared to 67% last year.

Probably has to do in large part to turnout.  I can almost guarantee you that I was in the vast minority of people in my age bracket of 18-25 that even bothered to vote.  In contrast, the 65+ crowd definitely kept up the trend of getting out and voting, rain or shine.  When I voted near Uni City, I was definitely the youngest person in the room by at least forty years.  

Also minority turnout, which we all know is always low in these off cycle low-interest elections. Back in 2017, dems got nearly the exact same percentage in 'moving Dem' Chester as they got in 'Safe Dem' Delaware. A lot of these 'WWC rust belt towns' ironically now are dependent on minorities to give the  Democrats a floor. Some  of these minorities moved there back when there was jobs, but more have been invited to come by the towns to revitalize dead greyland. Reading, Lancaster, Reading, Allentown, and Harrisburg are majority minority, with many more possessing significant minority communities.

[Lambsbread]

I'm bummed that Amanda lost. We had nothing really surprising go down here in Lancaster County. Hobie Crystle, our progressive candidate for District Attorney, got just about 40% of the vote. His opponent got 52,000 votes. In 2015, the previous Republican DA got just shy of 51,000 votes.

Turnout seemed to be up across the county. Last night, the county commissioners race netted 135,000 votes, whereas in 2015, 104,000 votes were counted. So just based on that, looks like a lot more people came out to vote. Of course, Lancaster County gonna Lancaster County so those margins mostly favored Republicans.

A lot of the reporting on the ground yesterday showed voters saying there is a lot of enthusiasm to vote for Trump next year and that's why turnout is so high. I would take that with a grain of salt, but we'll see.

[wbrocks67]

Half of me wonders if typical voters see this and say, well, I wanna be "Fair" and vote in one dem and one rep (even though Reps have a majority on the Superior Court)

Sad thing is Hawkins will likely get even closer to 2nd place once the rest of Philly and Northampton comes in.

[Gass3268]

I see Democrats picked up Lehigh County too.

[Lambsbread]

Lancaster Newspapers reporting 27.17% turnout (88,369 votes cast out of 325,296 registered voters) in Lancaster County.

Looks like about ~65,000 votes were cast in 2015. Turnout was 21.06% according to LNP.

A 6% increase in a municipal election in deep red Lancaster County spells (mostly) good for Trump in 2020.

[Orser67]

Seems like this election basically saw Democrats do well in places Trump lost, and Republicans do well in places Trump won. In the Pittsburgh suburbs, the GOP won control of the board of commissioners in Westmoreland County (voted 64-33 for Trump in 2016) and Washington County (voted 60-36 Trump in 2016). In Northeast PA, Democrats defended their majority on the Lackawanna County (voted 50-46 for Clinton in 2016) board of commissioners, but lost it in Luzerne County (voted 58-39 for Trump). In the Lehigh Valley, Democrats won control of the Lehigh County (voted 50-45 for Clinton) board of commissioners for the first time this century.

I know these statewide races can not be reflective of what's happening, but it's still a bit dissapointing. Was hoping for a way better result from Dems, but turnout in my county, Montco, for example, was only 37%, compared to 67% last year.

Not that I disagree with anything you said, but it's worth noting that these judicial races aren't for the state supreme court, but for one of two appellate courts. I've lived in Pennsylvania for about three decades, and I don't know anyone who has ever mentioned the Superior Court of Pennsylvania in a conversation.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1192145491720593409?s=20