KY and MS margins
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  KY and MS margins
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walleye26
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« on: November 04, 2019, 05:36:01 PM »

I don’t know too much about these states, so I’m asking for help here. If Hood and Beshear are on track to win 50% of the vote, what would they need the margins to be in:
KY-Warren, Jefferson, Fayette, Campbell/Boone, Franklin, Daviess.
MS-Hinds, Madison, DeSoto, Rankin, Oktibbeha, Lafayette.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2019, 06:20:39 PM »

I don’t know too much about these states, so I’m asking for help here. If Hood and Beshear are on track to win 50% of the vote, what would they need the margins to be in:
KY-Warren, Jefferson, Fayette, Campbell/Boone, Franklin, Daviess.
MS-Hinds, Madison, DeSoto, Rankin, Oktibbeha, Lafayette.

Here's a range of percentages they should hit in a tied race with 1-2% third party:

Warren: 48-52% (good bellwether)
Jefferson: 67-69%
Fayette: 64-66%
Franklin: 62-66%
Daviess: 46-50%
Campbell: 48-52% (good bellwether)
Boone: 38-41%

Hinds: 80-82%
Madison: 49-51% (good bellwether)
DeSoto: 43-45%
Rankin: 30-33%
Lafayette: 52-55%
Oktibehha: 60-63%
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