I don’t know too much about these states, so I’m asking for help here. If Hood and Beshear are on track to win 50% of the vote, what would they need the margins to be in:
KY-Warren, Jefferson, Fayette, Campbell/Boone, Franklin, Daviess.
MS-Hinds, Madison, DeSoto, Rankin, Oktibbeha, Lafayette.
Here's a range of percentages they should hit in a tied race with 1-2% third party:
Warren: 48-52% (good bellwether)
Jefferson: 67-69%
Fayette: 64-66%
Franklin: 62-66%
Daviess: 46-50%
Campbell: 48-52% (good bellwether)
Boone: 38-41%
Hinds: 80-82%
Madison: 49-51% (good bellwether)
DeSoto: 43-45%
Rankin: 30-33%
Lafayette: 52-55%
Oktibehha: 60-63%