New Jersey legislative elections megathread

[Tekken_Guy]

Somerset County is blue almost single-handedly because of Franklin Township. Without it Obama would’ve lost it twice (although Hillary still would’ve narrowly carried it). Morris lacks a community that could make it blue the same way.

[Brittain33]

Somerset County is blue almost single-handedly because of Franklin Township. Without it Obama would’ve lost it twice (although Hillary still would’ve narrowly carried it). Morris lacks a community that could make it blue the same way.

Somerset is becoming more demographically diverse, especially in the South near Princeton. Those towns also have high academic attainment. It’s not just Franklin.

[Tekken_Guy]

Somerset County is blue almost single-handedly because of Franklin Township. Without it Obama would’ve lost it twice (although Hillary still would’ve narrowly carried it). Morris lacks a community that could make it blue the same way.

Somerset is becoming more demographically diverse, especially in the South near Princeton. Those towns also have high academic attainment. It’s not just Franklin.

That wasn’t what I was trying to say. My point is that without Franklin Somerset would still be a swing county, although trending blue, rather than a solidly blue one by now.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Somerset County is blue almost single-handedly because of Franklin Township. Without it Obama would’ve lost it twice (although Hillary still would’ve narrowly carried it). Morris lacks a community that could make it blue the same way.

Morristown, Morris Township, Dover, Parsippany-Troy Hills, Madison.

[Dead Parrot]

Somerset County is blue almost single-handedly because of Franklin Township. Without it Obama would’ve lost it twice (although Hillary still would’ve narrowly carried it). Morris lacks a community that could make it blue the same way.

Morristown, Morris Township, Dover, Parsippany-Troy Hills, Madison.

None of those towns comprise as much of Morris's population as Franklin does Somerset's. Franklin accounts for nearly 20% of all the votes cast in the county most years. They're also nowhere near as blue.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Somerset County is blue almost single-handedly because of Franklin Township. Without it Obama would’ve lost it twice (although Hillary still would’ve narrowly carried it). Morris lacks a community that could make it blue the same way.

Democrats won the congressional vote in Morris County pretty easily last year. I don’t have the township results, but that result could indicate a potential Democratic power base

[Tekken_Guy]

Somerset County is blue almost single-handedly because of Franklin Township. Without it Obama would’ve lost it twice (although Hillary still would’ve narrowly carried it). Morris lacks a community that could make it blue the same way.

Democrats won the congressional vote in Morris County pretty easily last year. I don’t have the township results, but that result could indicate a potential Democratic power base

Maybe that’s because Morris County is located in a district where the GOP ran a horrible candidate and got crushed by 15 points. We still can’t see what a normal win will look like.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Somerset County is blue almost single-handedly because of Franklin Township. Without it Obama would’ve lost it twice (although Hillary still would’ve narrowly carried it). Morris lacks a community that could make it blue the same way.

Democrats won the congressional vote in Morris County pretty easily last year. I don’t have the township results, but that result could indicate a potential Democratic power base

Maybe that’s because Morris County is located in a district where the GOP ran a horrible candidate and got crushed by 15 points. We still can’t see what a normal win will look like.

I remember last year when our blue avatars were touting him as a great recruit and the strongest possible candidate.

[Tekken_Guy]

Somerset County is blue almost single-handedly because of Franklin Township. Without it Obama would’ve lost it twice (although Hillary still would’ve narrowly carried it). Morris lacks a community that could make it blue the same way.

Democrats won the congressional vote in Morris County pretty easily last year. I don’t have the township results, but that result could indicate a potential Democratic power base

Maybe that’s because Morris County is located in a district where the GOP ran a horrible candidate and got crushed by 15 points. We still can’t see what a normal win will look like.

I remember last year when our blue avatars were touting him as a great recruit and the strongest possible candidate.

Ghee would have been much stronger.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Somerset County is blue almost single-handedly because of Franklin Township. Without it Obama would’ve lost it twice (although Hillary still would’ve narrowly carried it). Morris lacks a community that could make it blue the same way.

Democrats won the congressional vote in Morris County pretty easily last year. I don’t have the township results, but that result could indicate a potential Democratic power base

Maybe that’s because Morris County is located in a district where the GOP ran a horrible candidate and got crushed by 15 points. We still can’t see what a normal win will look like.

I remember last year when our blue avatars were touting him as a great recruit and the strongest possible candidate.

Ghee would have been much stronger.

He wasn't pure enough for the primary electorate.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Wasn't Franklin voting Democratic much more often of the rest of Somerset County before the entire county became favorable to Democrats though? There's no doubt that Franklin is the center of that change, but other communities within the county are undeniably moving leftwards too though.

[cg41386]

Montgomery Township has also become fairly blue. Wouldn’t be shocked if Bernards Township and Bridgewater also had more of a blue swing in the near future.

[cg41386]

Somerset County is blue almost single-handedly because of Franklin Township. Without it Obama would’ve lost it twice (although Hillary still would’ve narrowly carried it). Morris lacks a community that could make it blue the same way.

Morristown, Morris Township, Dover, Parsippany-Troy Hills, Madison.

The Chathams have also swung leftward, as has Randolph.

[Tekken_Guy]

Wasn't Franklin voting Democratic much more often of the rest of Somerset County before the entire county became favorable to Democrats though? There's no doubt that Franklin is the center of that change, but other communities within the county are undeniably moving leftwards too though.

It was, but the town was much smaller then. The rest of the county has moved left, but hasn’t reached the point where it’s reliably blue without Franklin.

[Brittain33]

So did the Republicans win in AD2 or not?

[Dead Parrot]

So did the Republicans win in AD2 or not?

I can't link to it, but David Wildstein just tweeted that the Dems have held LD-2.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/BenJKest/status/1194792935524573187

The Democrats were able to hold off some of their potential losses but still lost their supermajority.

[they don't love you like i love you]

So the 2nd is the only district with a party split?

[lfromnj]

So the 2nd is the only district with a party split?

No nj 3 has the party switcher state senator but r state house.

[they don't love you like i love you]

So the 2nd is the only district with a party split?

No nj 3 has the party switcher state senator but r state house.

I kind of doubt Steve Sweeney is a party switcher.

[Roll Roons]

So the 2nd is the only district with a party split?

16th (traditionally based in Somerset County, but now includes part of Hunterdon along with Princeton) has a Republican senator and two Democratic assemblymen.

On another note, was anyone else surprised that the 21st stayed R? I was bracing myself for disappointment but very pleasantly surprised on election night. This is a wealthy district that Hillary won by 10 and where Trump is beyond toxic.

[lfromnj]

So the 2nd is the only district with a party split?

No nj 3 has the party switcher state senator but r state house.

I kind of doubt Steve Sweeney is a party switcher.

Sorry my bad
Meant ld 8

[Pollster]

On another note, was anyone else surprised that the 21st stayed R? I was bracing myself for disappointment but very pleasantly surprised on election night. This is a wealthy district that Hillary won by 10 and where Trump is beyond toxic.

This is the Kean/Bramnick/Munoz seat, all of whom are quite individually popular and well-liked, and not to mention virtually the entire Republican legislative leadership in NJ (yes, they're all from the same seat). Bramnick and Munoz are very effective moderates who practically ran an anti-Trump campaign. Both would be formidable gubernatorial candidates, especially if a Democrat is President.

[slothdem]

On another note, was anyone else surprised that the 21st stayed R? I was bracing myself for disappointment but very pleasantly surprised on election night. This is a wealthy district that Hillary won by 10 and where Trump is beyond toxic.

I'm not surprised that Bramnick/Munoz pulled it out, but I am surprised at the margin and I'm shocked that they carried the Union County portion of the district (by 1.8%, but still). I'm originally from the Union suburbs, and I was of the opinion that post-Trump, no Republican could carry those towns at any level. Makes their win very impressive.

[Brittain33]

There must be some share of voters in AD 21 who voted Democratic federally because they were reamed by the SALT deduction cap but by the same token are going to vote for state Republicans to keep taxes down.