New Jersey legislative elections megathread

[Bojack Horseman]

Going from a 56-24 to 48-32 majority is insane. NJ Dems need to get their ish together.

I remember someone predicting on election night 2017 that Phil Murphy would end the same way that Jon Corzine did.

[hurricanehink]

Some comparisons between 2015 (the last NJ midterm), 2017 (when we had the governor election), and last night:

LD1: In 2015, the Dems won 19,140 votes to 16,818 (R), a margin of 2,322. In 2017, Dems won 30,938 to 20,445, a margin of 10,493. Last night, GOP won 25,521 to 23,098, a margin of 2,423.
LD2: In 2015, a Republican and Democrat won with over 18,000 votes each. In 2017, both Dems won, 25,683 to 20,814, a margin of 4,869. Last night, GOP won 17,906 to 17,137, a margin of 769, and apparently too close to call.

In the state senate election (1st district), Jeff Van Drew won in 2017 35,464 to 18,589, a margin of 16,875. Last night in the special election (after JVD become congressman), his replacement Dem appointee got 23,686, losing by 3,527 votes to the GOP candidate, who got 27,163 votes.

Add it all up, the off year elections in this part of South Jersey is trending GOP. In LD1, GOP went from 16k, to 20k in 2017, and 25k last night. Also in LD1 in 2017, there were about 2k people who voted GOP for state assembly but Democrat for state Senate.  Last night, it was the reverse, as the GOP state Senate candidate got 2000 more votes than the assemblyman (even though the Dem got only 600 more votes in the state senate election).

[Mr.Phips]

Some comparisons between 2015 (the last NJ midterm), 2017 (when we had the governor election), and last night:

LD1: In 2015, the Dems won 19,140 votes to 16,818 (R), a margin of 2,322. In 2017, Dems won 30,938 to 20,445, a margin of 10,493. Last night, GOP won 25,521 to 23,098, a margin of 2,423.
LD2: In 2015, a Republican and Democrat won with over 18,000 votes each. In 2017, both Dems won, 25,683 to 20,814, a margin of 4,869. Last night, GOP won 17,906 to 17,137, a margin of 769, and apparently too close to call.

In the state senate election (1st district), Jeff Van Drew won in 2017 35,464 to 18,589, a margin of 16,875. Last night in the special election (after JVD become congressman), his replacement Dem appointee got 23,686, losing by 3,527 votes to the GOP candidate, who got 27,163 votes.

Add it all up, the off year elections in this part of South Jersey is trending GOP. In LD1, GOP went from 16k, to 20k in 2017, and 25k last night. Also in LD1 in 2017, there were about 2k people who voted GOP for state assembly but Democrat for state Senate.  Last night, it was the reverse, as the GOP state Senate candidate got 2000 more votes than the assemblyman (even though the Dem got only 600 more votes in the state senate election).

It looks like the Dems in AD-02 will actually hold since the VBM ballots went heavily for them.

[Annatar]

Do you have link to where the results are being updated, can't seem to find it on the NJ State Elections site.

[hurricanehink]

Do you have link to where the results are being updated, can't seem to find it on the NJ State Elections site.

https://www.nj.com/politics/2019/11/live-election-results-nj-state-assembly-races-2019-and-statewide-ballot-question.html

[Brittain33]

Going from a 56-24 to 48-32 majority is insane. NJ Dems need to get their ish together.

Wait a minute. What are the 4 districts where Dems lost 8 seats? I thought they only lost 4 seats in AD-1 and AD-2 and failed to advance in others.

[Roll Roons]

Going from a 56-24 to 48-32 majority is insane. NJ Dems need to get their ish together.

Wait a minute. What are the 4 districts where Dems lost 8 seats? I thought they only lost 4 seats in AD-1 and AD-2 and failed to advance in others.

The breakdown was actually 54-26 before last night, and at one point it looked like the GOP candidates were ahead in 38, but the Dems pulled ahead in the end.

[Pollster]

What's the most recent update on LD-02? NJ.com appears to have stalled.

[Dead Parrot]

What's the most recent update on LD-02? NJ.com appears to have stalled.

No updates since last night: all of the E-Day vote in, no VBMs or provisionals counted.

[Progressive Pessimist]

WTF happened here? Why did nobody go out?

This always happens in off-year elections in New Jersey, with Democrats especially. This has probably been the New Jersey GOP'S best overall performance since Christie's 2013 landslide re-election. Between then and now, New Jersey Democrats had Christie become a boogeyman for them and fared better. Now, with no presidential or congressional elections, the Republicans had their time again with Murphy now being the one to galvanize them, particularly in south Jersey.

[Dead Parrot]

The Atlantic County Clerk still hasn't updated, but the NJ Globe is reporting that VBMs have put the Dems back ahead in LD-2, and that will probably hold: newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/democrats-cling-to-small-lead-in-2nd-district-assembly-race/

[Roll Roons]

https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2019/11/06/murphy-losing-democrats-should-have-embraced-him-1226458

Hahahahahaha. He literally sounds like the Democratic version of Trump here. For 2021, I think Republicans have a much better shot here than in Virginia.

Also this just occurred to me but it seems like Jon (with that spelling) is an unusually common name in New Jersey politics, between Bramnick, Runyan and Corzine.

[Cinemark]

https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2019/11/06/murphy-losing-democrats-should-have-embraced-him-1226458

Hahahahahaha. He literally sounds like the Democratic version of Trump here. For 2021, I think Republicans have a much better shot here than in Virginia.

Also this just occurred to me but it seems like Jon (with that spelling) is an unusually common name in New Jersey politics, between Bramnick, Runyan and Corzine.

Murphy isnt Corzine. Atleast not yet.

Lest you forget, Corzine was incredibly unpopular due to the recession and being a dumbass. And NJ still almost relected him. Not to mention NJ has gotten bluer in the last ten years.

So, your getting way ahead of yourself if you think democrats are safer in Virginia then they are in NJ. 

[MT Treasurer]

I agree with Roll Roons that this is more likely to flip than VA in 2021, but it will still be an uphill battle for any Republican candidate. Someone like Ciattarelli definitely shouldn’t be counted out if Murphy's approval rating plummets and Trump loses reelection, though.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

So LD-25 stayed Republican after all. Morris County is definitely proving a very tough nut to crack for Dems not named Mikie Sherrill. They can get to the mid-high 40s, but they can't seem to get over the last little hump. However, Dems will have another crack at the Senate seat next year because there will be a special election to replace the late Anthony Bucco who died in September, and presidential turnout may change the calculus since Clinton narrowly won the district in the '16. I'm assuming there will be a special for one LD-25 Assembly seat at that time as well, since I'm assuming Assemblyman Bucco Jr. will be shortly be appointed to the Senate seat. Who would replace him in the Assembly is beyond my political knowledge (perhaps outgoing Assemblyman Michael Patrick Carroll, who lost the primary for Morris County Surrogate in June, will return?)

At the municipal level Dems continued to chip away at Republican dominance, though. They picked up the mayor's office in Boonton Town and Chatham Borough, as well as some council seats. Probably the best news was in Dover, the County's big Hispanic enclave, where Trump Democrat-turned-Indy Mayor James Dodd appears to have lost by about 19 votes to Democrat Carolyn Blackman, who will be the town's first black and first female mayor.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

And overall in the state, in the Assembly Dem losses were limited to far South Jersey (beyond even Metro Philly at the southern end of the state). Up in the Philly and North Jersey/NYC burbs, there doesn't seem to have been much Dem erosion at all, at least not enough to change the outcome.

(Regarding "Christie as a boogeyman" from earlier in the thread, as a lifelong New Jerseyan I still have whiplash from how quickly he went from Worse than Satan, to Untouchable God-Emperor, and back to Worse than Satan...)

[Politician]

Murphy is done in 2021.

[Pollster]

South Jersey becoming less Dem friendly is good news for Murphy as it decreases Sweeney and Norcross' power and liberalizes the Dem caucus, especially since many Reps from the northern part of the state appear to be on thinning ice.

[Cinemark]

Murphy is done in 2020.

Totally, good thing the election is in 2021.

[Progressive Pessimist]

And overall in the state, in the Assembly Dem losses were limited to far South Jersey (beyond even Metro Philly at the southern end of the state). Up in the Philly and North Jersey/NYC burbs, there doesn't seem to have been much Dem erosion at all, at least not enough to change the outcome.

(Regarding "Christie as a boogeyman" from earlier in the thread, as a lifelong New Jerseyan I still have whiplash from how quickly he went from Worse than Satan, to Untouchable God-Emperor, and back to Worse than Satan...)

I'm thankful to have been vindicated about Christie. I always hated him. Just because he didn't spit in Obama's face and managed to not be incompetent when it came to the aftermath of a hurricane never meant that he was a good Governor or even a good person.

I think the issue with Morris County's slow as molasses Somersetization, or tease of it, is that their voters (as with other voters in the state too) seem to be making a distinction between Trenton Republicans and Washington Republicans. They still favor the former while moving away from the latter. I wouldn't completely write off Morris County trending D in national elections, but in statewide elections, especially while Murphy is Governor, it will probably remain the solidly Republican county it always was.

[Badger]

https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2019/11/06/murphy-losing-democrats-should-have-embraced-him-1226458

Hahahahahaha. He literally sounds like the Democratic version of Trump here. For 2021, I think Republicans have a much better shot here than in Virginia.

Also this just occurred to me but it seems like Jon (with that spelling) is an unusually common name in New Jersey politics, between Bramnick, Runyan and Corzine.

And don't forget Bon Jovi.

[Badger]

Murphy is done in 2021.

weren't you one of the folks forecasting that Bevin would romp to reelection?

[lfromnj]

Murphy is done in 2021.

weren't you one of the folks forecasting that Bevin would romp to reelection?

Uh what?
Politican has been opposing Icespear for a whole year brah.

[Badger]

Murphy is done in 2021.

weren't you one of the folks forecasting that Bevin would romp to reelection?

Uh what?
Politican has been opposing Icespear for a whole year brah.

Then I'm obviously confused.

Still a damn silly prediction about Murphy, though.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

And overall in the state, in the Assembly Dem losses were limited to far South Jersey (beyond even Metro Philly at the southern end of the state). Up in the Philly and North Jersey/NYC burbs, there doesn't seem to have been much Dem erosion at all, at least not enough to change the outcome.

(Regarding "Christie as a boogeyman" from earlier in the thread, as a lifelong New Jerseyan I still have whiplash from how quickly he went from Worse than Satan, to Untouchable God-Emperor, and back to Worse than Satan...)

I'm thankful to have been vindicated about Christie. I always hated him. Just because he didn't spit in Obama's face and managed to not be incompetent when it came to the aftermath of a hurricane never meant that he was a good Governor or even a good person.

I think the issue with Morris County's slow as molasses Somersetization, or tease of it, is that their voters (as with other voters in the state too) seem to be making a distinction between Trenton Republicans and Washington Republicans. They still favor the former while moving away from the latter. I wouldn't completely write off Morris County trending D in national elections, but in statewide elections, especially while Murphy is Governor, it will probably remain the solidly Republican county it always was.

I think that's it, for the most part. I know plenty of middle aged people (including my own mother) who were more than happy to vote for nice, middle-of-the-road army helicopter lady, to send a message to mean Trump but have a much harder time finding the will to "vote with Newark and Camden" on the state level. A lot of it is because of already-quite-high state taxes, but it's hard to deny there's not a level of racial animosity in the mix as well, especially since lots of people here are post-'67-riots white flight "refugees" from Newark and its immediate suburbs. In fact, while I'm sure there's a lot of literature about it, I don't think the '67 riots and their legacy gets enough attention wrt to how it affects suburban North Jersey politics.

In any case. demographic change will probably gradually start pulling Morris left, but that could take years. My sister's high school has a hell of a lot more Hispanics and Indian-Americans than when I went there, and it hasn't been THAT long since I went there. Change is on the way, but it could take a while yet...