Pennsylvania Registration Statistics, 2016-present
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 01:27:09 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Pennsylvania Registration Statistics, 2016-present
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: Pennsylvania Registration Statistics, 2016-present  (Read 2325 times)
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 04, 2019, 07:00:18 AM »
« edited: November 04, 2019, 07:10:41 AM by wbrocks67 »

Feel free to move this wherever else, but it's interesting for trends.

PENNSYLVANIA
November 2016: Dems +916,274
November 2017: Dems +808,918
November 2018: Dems +840,443
November 2019: Dems +813,876

Allegheny (Clinton +16.4, Casey +33.1)
November 2016: Dems +280,366
November 2017: Dems +277,908
November 2018: Dems +284,703
November 2019: Dems +291,626

Berks (Trump +9.9, Casey +3.8 )
November 2016: Dems +19,435
November 2017: Dems +15,185
November 2018: Dems +15,559
November 2019: Dems +13,437

Bucks (Clinton +0.8, Casey +14.0)
November 2016: Dems +9,382
November 2017: Dems +6,905
November 2018: Dems +10,361
November 2019: Dems +11,409

Centre (Clinton +2.4, Casey +17.2)
November 2016: Dems +3,502
November 2017: Dems +1,037
November 2018: Dems +2,383
November 2019: Dems +2,741

Chester (Clinton +9.4, Casey +20.2)
November 2016: Reps +18,468
November 2017: Reps +17,668
November 2018: Reps +11,300
November 2019: Reps +6,966

Dauphin (Clinton +2.9, Casey +11.4)
November 2016: Dems +10,067
November 2017: Dems +7,991
November 2018: Dems +9,786
November 2019: Dems +10,356

Delco (Clinton +22.3, Casey +31.4)
November 2016: Dems +17,569
November 2017: Dems +16,619
November 2018: Dems +26,637
November 2019: Dems +33,001

Erie (Trump +1.6, Casey +18.4)
November 2016: Dems +30,103
November 2017: Dems +29,223
November 2018: Dems +28,559
November 2019: Dems +27,679

Lackawanna (Clinton +3.5, Casey +23.2)
November 2016: Dems +48,493
November 2017: Dems +44,710
November 2018: Dems +44,357
November 2019: Dems +42,051

Lehigh (Clinton +4.7, Casey +16.4)
November 2016: Dems +35,122
November 2017: Dems +31,658
November 2018: Dems +33,718
November 2019: Dems +32,983

Lancaster (Trump +19.1, Barletta +8.4)
November 2016: Reps +66,193
November 2017: Reps +65,694
November 2018: Reps +62,936
November 2019: Reps +60,777

Luzerne (Trump +19.3, Barletta +8.2)
November 2016: Dems +33,939
November 2017: Dems +32,154
November 2018: Dems +30,022
November 2019: Dems +27,971

Montgomery (Clinton +21.3, Casey +31.9)
November 2016: Dems +56,510
November 2017: Dems +56,147
November 2018: Dems +67,225
November 2019: Dems +73,194

Philadelphia (Clinton +67.0, Casey +74.8 )
November 2016: Dems +727,534
November 2017: Dems +679,775
November 2018: Dems +699,390
November 2019: Dems +697,876
Logged
redeagleofficial
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 657


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2019, 09:54:16 AM »

YES, PA is trending red in my opinion, and I do believe Trump will win it by about 100K votes in 2020.  However, I take these registration numbers with a grain of salt.  Arizona and Nevada have seen more Republicans register, yet studies do show that republicans change their registrations more often when they move when you are a year out from an election.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2019, 09:59:11 AM »

Isn't Pennsylvania one of those states where there are tons of conservadems that are registered D but vote R? Looking at the county numbers cited here that seems to be driving the change.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2019, 03:23:37 PM »

Isn't Pennsylvania one of those states where there are tons of conservadems that are registered D but vote R? Looking at the county numbers cited here that seems to be driving the change.

In counties like Luzerne, yeah, that's pretty much where it's headed.

What I thought was interesting though is that Dems are slowly leaking in these counties, but Reps are REALLY leaking in the suburban counties. Reallly shows the Trump-era shift.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2020, 06:59:26 AM »

Bit of an update... and this is not including Indies, just the difference between Registered Ds and Rs

STATEWIDE
November 2019: Dems +813,876
February 2020: Dems +791,848

ALLEGHENY
November 2019: Dems +291,626
February 2020: Dems +268,000

BERKS
November 2019: Dems +13,437
February 2020: Dems +13,154

BUCKS
November 2019: Dems +11,409
February 2020: Dems +13,462

CENTRE
November 2019: Dems +2,741
February 2020: Dems +3,200

CHESTER
November 2019: Reps +6,966
February 2020: Reps +3,505

DAUPHIN
November 2019: Dems +10,356
February 2020: Dems +11,193

DELCO
November 2019: Dems +33,001
February 2020: Dems +37,092

LACKAWANNA
November 2019: Dems +42,051
February 2020: Dems +41,241

LEHIGH
November 2019: Dems +32,983
February 2020: Dems +33,857

LANCASTER
November 2019: Reps +60,777
February 2020: Reps +59,742

MONTGOMERY
November 2020: Dems +73,194
February 2020: Dems +78,843

PHILADELPHIA
November 2020: Dems +697,876
February 2020: Dems +702,439

Not sure what happened in Allegheny since November, but interesting and not surprising that the leftward shift dramatically continues in places like Montgomery and Delaware, and Chester will finally be in the hands of Ds soon, after having an R+19,000 advantage in 2016.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,278


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: February 28, 2020, 02:45:28 PM »

Bit of an update... and this is not including Indies, just the difference between Registered Ds and Rs

STATEWIDE
November 2019: Dems +813,876
February 2020: Dems +791,848

ALLEGHENY
November 2019: Dems +291,626
February 2020: Dems +268,000

BERKS
November 2019: Dems +13,437
February 2020: Dems +13,154

BUCKS
November 2019: Dems +11,409
February 2020: Dems +13,462

CENTRE
November 2019: Dems +2,741
February 2020: Dems +3,200

CHESTER
November 2019: Reps +6,966
February 2020: Reps +3,505

DAUPHIN
November 2019: Dems +10,356
February 2020: Dems +11,193

DELCO
November 2019: Dems +33,001
February 2020: Dems +37,092

LACKAWANNA
November 2019: Dems +42,051
February 2020: Dems +41,241

LEHIGH
November 2019: Dems +32,983
February 2020: Dems +33,857

LANCASTER
November 2019: Reps +60,777
February 2020: Reps +59,742

MONTGOMERY
November 2020: Dems +73,194
February 2020: Dems +78,843

PHILADELPHIA
November 2020: Dems +697,876
February 2020: Dems +702,439

Not sure what happened in Allegheny since November, but interesting and not surprising that the leftward shift dramatically continues in places like Montgomery and Delaware, and Chester will finally be in the hands of Ds soon, after having an R+19,000 advantage in 2016.

Any reason why R gains in Lackawanna are so slow ? Especially when compared to luzerne ?
Logged
538Electoral
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,691


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: February 28, 2020, 02:47:13 PM »

Interesting.
Logged
AGA
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,267
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -5.39

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: February 28, 2020, 03:00:51 PM »

Where can one find this data?
Logged
15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
Moderator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,669


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 29, 2020, 10:57:48 AM »

Bit of an update... and this is not including Indies, just the difference between Registered Ds and Rs

STATEWIDE
November 2019: Dems +813,876
February 2020: Dems +791,848

ALLEGHENY
November 2019: Dems +291,626
February 2020: Dems +268,000

BERKS
November 2019: Dems +13,437
February 2020: Dems +13,154

BUCKS
November 2019: Dems +11,409
February 2020: Dems +13,462

CENTRE
November 2019: Dems +2,741
February 2020: Dems +3,200

CHESTER
November 2019: Reps +6,966
February 2020: Reps +3,505

DAUPHIN
November 2019: Dems +10,356
February 2020: Dems +11,193

DELCO
November 2019: Dems +33,001
February 2020: Dems +37,092

LACKAWANNA
November 2019: Dems +42,051
February 2020: Dems +41,241

LEHIGH
November 2019: Dems +32,983
February 2020: Dems +33,857

LANCASTER
November 2019: Reps +60,777
February 2020: Reps +59,742

MONTGOMERY
November 2020: Dems +73,194
February 2020: Dems +78,843

PHILADELPHIA
November 2020: Dems +697,876
February 2020: Dems +702,439

Not sure what happened in Allegheny since November, but interesting and not surprising that the leftward shift dramatically continues in places like Montgomery and Delaware, and Chester will finally be in the hands of Ds soon, after having an R+19,000 advantage in 2016.

Any reason why R gains in Lackawanna are so slow ? Especially when compared to luzerne ?

Probably that Luzerne doesn't have a city comparable to Scranton
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: February 29, 2020, 12:42:28 PM »


Our SOS, whoever that is (not a position you can run for in an election, apparently) does a good job at keeping the stats up to date each week-

https://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections/OtherServicesEvents/VotingElectionStatistics/pages/votingelectionstatistics.aspx
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: February 29, 2020, 01:59:25 PM »

Isn't Pennsylvania one of those states where there are tons of conservadems that are registered D but vote R? Looking at the county numbers cited here that seems to be driving the change.

Yeah, party registration is a strong trailing indicator.
Logged
Cyrusman
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,328
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: March 05, 2020, 11:31:54 PM »

Then why don’t more people on here consider Pennsylvania a tossup?
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: May 01, 2020, 07:08:39 PM »

STATEWIDE
November 2019: Dems +813,876
February 2020: Dems +791,848
May 2020: Dems +809,164

ALLEGHENY
November 2019: Dems +291,626
February 2020: Dems +268,000
May 2020: Dems +271,496

BERKS
November 2019: Dems +13,437
February 2020: Dems +13,154
May 2020: Dems +13,367

BUCKS
November 2019: Dems +11,409
February 2020: Dems +13,462
May 2020: Dems +15,449

CENTRE
November 2019: Dems +2,741
February 2020: Dems +3,200
May 2020: Dems +3,617

CHESTER
November 2019: Reps +6,966
February 2020: Reps +3,505
May 2020: Reps +310

DAUPHIN
November 2019: Dems +10,356
February 2020: Dems +11,193
May 2020: Dems +12,068

DELCO
November 2019: Dems +33,001
February 2020: Dems +37,092
May 2020: Dems +40,191

LACKAWANNA
November 2019: Dems +42,051
February 2020: Dems +41,241
May 2020: Dems +41,058

LEHIGH
November 2019: Dems +32,983
February 2020: Dems +33,857
May 2020: Dems +34,662

LANCASTER
November 2019: Reps +60,777
February 2020: Reps +59,742
May 2020: Reps +58,771

MONTGOMERY
November 2020: Dems +73,194
February 2020: Dems +78,843
May 2020: Dems +83,301

PHILADELPHIA
November 2020: Dems +697,876
February 2020: Dems +702,439
May 2020: Dems +706,611

Interesting stats here - the suburbia growth continues. Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery all going Dem at a pretty fast pace, especially Chester, where Dems are about to overtake Reps for the first time.
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: May 01, 2020, 07:38:05 PM »

For Allegheny county from Nov 2019 to Feb 2020,  I read that was due to a record keeping update of some sort, not actual changes in registration.   I know Philadelphia did something similar in 2018.
Logged
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,181


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: May 01, 2020, 10:27:46 PM »

That's interesting but I find the population changes more interesting.  Clearly there are a lot of democrats in rural areas voting republican and a lot of republicans in the Philly suburbs voting democrat.  If you look at census population statistics, the areas that trended Democrat in 2016 are almost all growing in population while the areas that trended Republican in 2016 are almost all shrinking in population (since 2016).

Also I think I read somewhere that the decrease in Philly was some kind of error that has been corrected.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 08, 2021, 02:01:00 PM »

STATEWIDE
November 2019: Dems +813,876
February 2020: Dems +791,848
May 2020: Dems +809,164
August 2021: Dems +616,962

ALLEGHENY
November 2019: Dems +291,626
February 2020: Dems +268,000
May 2020: Dems +271,496
August 2021: Dems +268,065

BERKS
November 2019: Dems +13,437
February 2020: Dems +13,154
May 2020: Dems +13,367
August 2021: Dems +5,511

BUCKS
November 2019: Dems +11,409
February 2020: Dems +13,462
May 2020: Dems +15,449
August 2021: Dems +10,702

CENTRE
November 2019: Dems +2,741
February 2020: Dems +3,200
May 2020: Dems +3,617
August 2021: Dems +1,803

CHESTER
November 2019: Reps +6,966
February 2020: Reps +3,505
May 2020: Reps +310
August 2021: Dems +4,453

DAUPHIN
November 2019: Dems +10,356
February 2020: Dems +11,193
May 2020: Dems +12,068
August 2021: Dems +12,458

DELCO
November 2019: Dems +33,001
February 2020: Dems +37,092
May 2020: Dems +40,191
August 2021: Dems +49,709

LACKAWANNA
November 2019: Dems +42,051
February 2020: Dems +41,241
May 2020: Dems +41,058
August 2021: Dems +37,022

LEHIGH
November 2019: Dems +32,983
February 2020: Dems +33,857
May 2020: Dems +34,662
August 2021: Dems +31,888

LANCASTER
November 2019: Reps +60,777
February 2020: Reps +59,742
May 2020: Reps +58,771
August 2021: Reps +64,069

MONTGOMERY
November 2020: Dems +73,194
February 2020: Dems +78,843
May 2020: Dems +83,301
August 2021: Dems +92,522

PHILADELPHIA
November 2020: Dems +697,876
February 2020: Dems +702,439
May 2020: Dems +706,611
August 2021: Dems +687,816
Logged
Annatar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 976
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 09, 2021, 04:43:06 AM »

It is interesting that from Nov 2017 to June 2020 the dems basically stopped the decline in their voter registration lead, went from +809k in Nov 2017 to +802k in June 2020, they even increased their lead in 2018 in the run-up to the mid terms, they resumed declining after June 2020 though.
Logged
Cyrusman
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,328
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 14, 2021, 06:02:44 PM »

STATEWIDE
November 2019: Dems +813,876
February 2020: Dems +791,848
May 2020: Dems +809,164
August 2021: Dems +616,962

ALLEGHENY
November 2019: Dems +291,626
February 2020: Dems +268,000
May 2020: Dems +271,496
August 2021: Dems +268,065

BERKS
November 2019: Dems +13,437
February 2020: Dems +13,154
May 2020: Dems +13,367
August 2021: Dems +5,511

BUCKS
November 2019: Dems +11,409
February 2020: Dems +13,462
May 2020: Dems +15,449
August 2021: Dems +10,702

CENTRE
November 2019: Dems +2,741
February 2020: Dems +3,200
May 2020: Dems +3,617
August 2021: Dems +1,803

CHESTER
November 2019: Reps +6,966
February 2020: Reps +3,505
May 2020: Reps +310
August 2021: Dems +4,453

DAUPHIN
November 2019: Dems +10,356
February 2020: Dems +11,193
May 2020: Dems +12,068
August 2021: Dems +12,458

DELCO
November 2019: Dems +33,001
February 2020: Dems +37,092
May 2020: Dems +40,191
August 2021: Dems +49,709

LACKAWANNA
November 2019: Dems +42,051
February 2020: Dems +41,241
May 2020: Dems +41,058
August 2021: Dems +37,022

LEHIGH
November 2019: Dems +32,983
February 2020: Dems +33,857
May 2020: Dems +34,662
August 2021: Dems +31,888

LANCASTER
November 2019: Reps +60,777
February 2020: Reps +59,742
May 2020: Reps +58,771
August 2021: Reps +64,069

MONTGOMERY
November 2020: Dems +73,194
February 2020: Dems +78,843
May 2020: Dems +83,301
August 2021: Dems +92,522

PHILADELPHIA
November 2020: Dems +697,876
February 2020: Dems +702,439
May 2020: Dems +706,611
August 2021: Dems +687,816

Wtf happened this year? That’s a huge drop off in democrat support
Logged
Annatar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 976
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 14, 2021, 06:24:36 PM »

STATEWIDE
November 2019: Dems +813,876
February 2020: Dems +791,848
May 2020: Dems +809,164
August 2021: Dems +616,962

ALLEGHENY
November 2019: Dems +291,626
February 2020: Dems +268,000
May 2020: Dems +271,496
August 2021: Dems +268,065

BERKS
November 2019: Dems +13,437
February 2020: Dems +13,154
May 2020: Dems +13,367
August 2021: Dems +5,511

BUCKS
November 2019: Dems +11,409
February 2020: Dems +13,462
May 2020: Dems +15,449
August 2021: Dems +10,702

CENTRE
November 2019: Dems +2,741
February 2020: Dems +3,200
May 2020: Dems +3,617
August 2021: Dems +1,803

CHESTER
November 2019: Reps +6,966
February 2020: Reps +3,505
May 2020: Reps +310
August 2021: Dems +4,453

DAUPHIN
November 2019: Dems +10,356
February 2020: Dems +11,193
May 2020: Dems +12,068
August 2021: Dems +12,458

DELCO
November 2019: Dems +33,001
February 2020: Dems +37,092
May 2020: Dems +40,191
August 2021: Dems +49,709

LACKAWANNA
November 2019: Dems +42,051
February 2020: Dems +41,241
May 2020: Dems +41,058
August 2021: Dems +37,022

LEHIGH
November 2019: Dems +32,983
February 2020: Dems +33,857
May 2020: Dems +34,662
August 2021: Dems +31,888

LANCASTER
November 2019: Reps +60,777
February 2020: Reps +59,742
May 2020: Reps +58,771
August 2021: Reps +64,069

MONTGOMERY
November 2020: Dems +73,194
February 2020: Dems +78,843
May 2020: Dems +83,301
August 2021: Dems +92,522

PHILADELPHIA
November 2020: Dems +697,876
February 2020: Dems +702,439
May 2020: Dems +706,611
August 2021: Dems +687,816

Wtf happened this year? That’s a huge drop off in democrat support

In the leadup to the 2020 election Republicans registered more voters relative to democrats and after every election there is a post election purge where voters that no longer are in the state are removed, this affected more democrats than republicans.
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,123
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 15, 2021, 11:03:28 PM »
« Edited: August 15, 2021, 11:07:24 PM by Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee »

Registration is a lagging indicator and PA has trended Republican in every Presidential election for the past decade and thus registration (which was always overly skewed Democratic in PA) is now slowly normalizing (in a very polarized environment) to where the state is relative to the national picture, a tilt Republican swing state. This is a world of difference from the mid 2000s when it was a D+4.

Trump halted the progress on this underlying dynamic, but with him no longer President, it has resumed. Lancaster is a good place to find a lot of people turned off by Trump but naturally Republican and the Republican rebound in that county could be evidence of that. Bucks even more so.
Logged
swf541
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,916


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 17, 2021, 04:54:38 PM »

Pennsylvania is not a tilt R swing state, and insinuating it is, is a pretty bad take, agreed on the other parts of the above post tho
Logged
Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,729


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 19, 2021, 06:32:52 AM »

I stand by my post elsewhere. Democrats do not need to worry about Pennsylvania nearly as much as they need to worry about Michigan and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is much less elastic than the other two, most of its rural counties are already 80% R, and the population-growth trends are very clear - the areas moving left are growing, the areas moving right are shrinking.
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,123
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 19, 2021, 11:37:58 AM »

Pennsylvania is not a tilt R swing state, and insinuating it is, is a pretty bad take, agreed on the other parts of the above post tho

It has voted to the right of the nation in the last two President elections, Trended Republican in the last four and even trended slightly Republican with Scranton Joe as the Democratic nominee. Sounds tilt R to me.
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,123
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 19, 2021, 12:01:39 PM »

I stand by my post elsewhere. Democrats do not need to worry about Pennsylvania nearly as much as they need to worry about Michigan and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is much less elastic than the other two, most of its rural counties are already 80% R, and the population-growth trends are very clear - the areas moving left are growing, the areas moving right are shrinking.

Only Fulton and Bedford are 80% R.


I have been following PA politics for 20 years almost. I am old enough to remember this same exact line being stated to say that PA would get more Democratic than it was in the 2000s, just like the same argument was used regarding Colombus, OH and its metro to say Ohio would become more Democratic. Since then, both states have become considerably more Republican, regardless of the fact that said X factor proved true (those areas are growing and have become more Democratic).

Also, just last year, many of you guys said it would be impossible for PA to trend Republican with Biden on the ticket, and yet it did. Republicans also won statewide 2 of the 3 row offices for the first time (in a Presidential year which never happened before) and won the statewide house ballot by about the same that Biden did.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: August 19, 2021, 12:14:17 PM »

Yeah, registration is just normalizing at this point. Though I think you'll still find more D support than R at the end of the day, so I think Ds will always have a lead.

And it looks like the voter purge really hit Ds hard too, moreso than Rs.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.052 seconds with 12 queries.