Pennsylvania Registration Statistics, 2016-present

[S019]

Pennsylvania is not a tilt R swing state, and insinuating it is, is a pretty bad take, agreed on the other parts of the above post tho

I think Yankee is saying Tilt R in terms of PVI/partisan lean relative to the nation, not necessarily how it votes in an election. Saying PA would tilt R if the NPV was tied is definitely a fair take, and it's probably the accurate one, too.

[Person Man]

Pennsylvania is not a tilt R swing state, and insinuating it is, is a pretty bad take, agreed on the other parts of the above post tho

I think Yankee is saying Tilt R in terms of PVI/partisan lean relative to the nation, not necessarily how it votes in an election. Saying PA would tilt R if the NPV was tied is definitely a fair take, and it's probably the accurate one, too.

Of course this is all happening in isolation. If California starts (albeit more slowly) goes the way of Texas, it might return Pennsylvania to zero PVI. At the rate Pennsylvania is going, it probably will be plurality Republican by the late 2020's.

I wonder how national voter party identification is going. At this point, it looks like Pennsylvania could vote to the right of Arizona and Georgia.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Pennsylvania is not a tilt R swing state, and insinuating it is, is a pretty bad take, agreed on the other parts of the above post tho

I think Yankee is saying Tilt R in terms of PVI/partisan lean relative to the nation, not necessarily how it votes in an election. Saying PA would tilt R if the NPV was tied is definitely a fair take, and it's probably the accurate one, too.

Of course this is all happening in isolation. If California starts (albeit more slowly) goes the way of Texas, it might return Pennsylvania to zero PVI. At the rate Pennsylvania is going, it probably will be plurality Republican by the late 2020's.

I wonder how national voter party identification is going. At this point, it looks like Pennsylvania could vote to the right of Arizona and Georgia.

Several of us have said for years that GA and AZ could end to the left of the rust belt and PA as well.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Another factor that people need to consider about PA is that it is not just Philly that drives Democrats early lead on election night.  A lot of the counties have heavily Democratic towns or cities in them. The example I often cite is Crawford in 2010, how it reported with Sestak in the lead or tied at first and many thought this meant Toomey was doomed, but when it finished, it was 61% Republican.

These towns and cities are collapsing in population, ex mining and manufacturing areas. So while the population of these rural counties is declining, it is not necessarily hitting the Republicans as hard as it might seem at first glance, but in many cases it is the Democrats taking the hit. We also have one of many more examples as to Philly basically plateauing for the Democrats and likewise with Pittsburgh.

This is worse than a simple party registration switch, because the implication is that these people are moving out of the state and is thus a true loss for the Democrats rather than a Demosaur finally catching up to reality (though that certainly is a factor in these places too).

Pennsylvania is not a tilt R swing state, and insinuating it is, is a pretty bad take, agreed on the other parts of the above post tho

I think Yankee is saying Tilt R in terms of PVI/partisan lean relative to the nation, not necessarily how it votes in an election. Saying PA would tilt R if the NPV was tied is definitely a fair take, and it's probably the accurate one, too.

Yes, also the fact that it is R PVI is going to make it so that Republicans continually work to win it because it is easier to flip PA than it is to flip VA/CO and eventually will be likewise for GA/AZ. Pointing to WI and MI also doesn't mean much in this context, because WI and MI on their own cannot get to 270 without GA. This means Republicans not spooking naturally Republican voters in the Pittsburgh suburbs, Lancaster and Bucks county into voting Democratic.

[Annatar]

An update to this thread, as of the 4th of October which is the last date for which we have voter registration data from PA, the democratic lead is down 607,642, over 2 months from the start of August to the start of October, the lead has fallen by around 9,000. It is likely that in the next few months the democratic lead will go below 600,000 as ancestral democrats continue to pass away.

[Non Swing Voter]

This is all a nothing burger.  9,000 in a state as large as PA?  When we all know it's just Dems who haven't voted Dem for years anyways. 

I think we need to stop looking at states based on how they vote relative to the nation.  The "nation" if it were a state would be tilt or lean D.  Dems consistently win the national popular vote by 3-5 points and that's without drumming up huge turnout in states like NY and CA. 

The reality is that SEPA is the fastest growing part of the state and even the GOP exurban counties around that area, which are seeing heavy growth, are only gaining because of Dem transplants.  PA will probably end up like the Dem version of FL, a "swing" state that mostly favors Dems and stabilizes as a Dem +3 state.