NYT/Siena Polls of 6 Battleground States

[GeorgiaModerate]

A few thoughts, in no particular order:

These are mostly pretty good polls for Trump, from a very good pollster.  Democrats shouldn't try to pick holes in them, but should recognize that Trump does have a realistic possibility of replicating his electoral inside straight from 2016.  However, neither should Republicans use these polls to assume that Trump is a strong favorite for reelection; he isn't.  It's possible to draw two inside straights in a row...but it sure isn't a good bet.

It's true that the election is still a year away.  There are one or two people here who routinely say "polls this far in advance are meaningless" -- at least when they don't like the results.  For those who really think polls are meaningless at this point, why are you wasting your time on a polling board?  Check back in July or so.

Polling this far in advance indeed has low predictive value for the state of the race a year from now.  But it's not zero, and the value is gradually increasing as the election gets closer. Also, although the polls don't tell us much about the November 2020 state of the race, they do tell us quite a lot about the state of the race now, especially when there are many polls that can be averaged together.

Those polls do tell us a story: Trump is the underdog at this point, but certainly not out of it yet.  And he does better against some candidates than others.  In particular, the large majority of polls show that Biden has the best results against Trump, and looking at the average (don't cherry pick individual polls) he does significantly better than Warren does.  

This is not just a matter of name recognition at this point.  Anyone who's following the campaign at all (and polls consistently show a record level of interest and enthusiasm for this election) knows who Warren is at this point.

Could Warren beat Trump?  Sure, it's very possible.  But at this point in the race, Biden looks like a significantly stronger candidate against Trump.  If this doesn't match your preferences, it's too bad; that's what the data says.  As an old poker buddy of mine once said: no matter how long you stare at a deuce in your hand, it will not transform into an ace.

Why is Warren running behind Biden?  Polls that probe this question, as the Upshot polls did, tend to show that she has specific weakness especially among the working class voters who, for better or worse, have a disproportionate electoral influence at this point in presidential politics.  Perhaps this isn't justified or fair, but it's the way that it is.  Again, look at the damn data.

Personally, I'll vote for any Democrat over Trump, but I'm rooting for Biden, and not just because I'm a moderate.  At this point, he has the best chance to beat Trump.  That's my ONLY concern right now, and I think it should be every Democrat's only concern.

Again, it's certainly possible that Warren can beat Trump.  But that sure looks like a shakier proposition than Biden beating Trump.  Every Democrat out there needs to ask themselves: would I rather lose with Warren or win with Biden?  Of course neither of those outcomes is a given, but right now it sure looks like Biden is more likely than not to beat Trump, while Warren is IMO a 50-50 bet.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Again, it's certainly possible that Warren can beat Trump.  But that sure looks like a shakier proposition than Biden beating Trump.  Every Democrat out there needs to ask themselves: would I rather lose with Warren or win with Biden?  Of course neither of those outcomes is a given, but right now it sure looks like Biden is more likely than not to beat Trump, while Warren is IMO a 50-50 bet.

Lose with Warren, get a Dem landslide in 2022 and impeach Trump after taking the Senate.

Taking the Senate isn't enough; you need 67 votes to convict and remove Trump.  But even if you manage that, Trump would still have had at least two more years to inflict further damage on the country.  And even then you're left with Pence (or whoever replaces him on the ticket) as President. 

Would you REALLY prefer four more years of Trump or Trump/Pence to four years of Biden?  Wouldn't you rather have Trump out in January 2021? 

[GeorgiaModerate]

How can you claim to be a moderate and say you would vote for Bernie Sanders or Warren who are both socialists.

I don't particularly like either of them, but I believe the country would survive four years of their Presidency, especially as they will have difficulty getting more extreme programs through Congress.  I don't believe it will survive another four years of Donald Trump.

It's an either-or choice.  Sometimes the choice is between bad and worse, rather than between good and bad.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How can you claim to be a moderate and say you would vote for Bernie Sanders or Warren who are both socialists.

I don't particularly like either of them, but I believe the country would survive four years of their Presidency, especially as they will have difficulty getting more extreme programs through Congress.  I don't believe it will survive another four years of Donald Trump.

It's an either-or choice.  Sometimes the choice is between bad and worse, rather than between good and bad.

Trump isn't proposing 27 trillion in new spending. How can you honestly say Warren or Bernie would be a better president? Trump is presiding over the best economy since the 60s. You may hate him as a person but there is no denying he is managing the country effectively.

Also I disagree with you slightly about the inside straight. I think if anything Trump is in a stronger position in the electoral college than even 2016. The advantage of incumbency is going to put other states possibly in his column: Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire. Trump could lose by 1-2 million votes and still win an electoral college mini landslide: 320-350 electoral votes. I also am not sure Biden is as great of a candidate as you think he is. I agree with a previous poster that the Trump campaign will dig up every bit of dirt on Biden and I think his strength in the polls is largely based off of name recognition. When Trump and his team really start spending then negative advertising on Biden (if he gets the nomination which looks less than 50% right now) I think his numbers would drop significantly nationally and in the state polls.

Trump and the Republicans are going to dig up all the dirt they can find on whoever his opponent is. 

Polls consistently show Biden running better against him than any other Democrat.  And no, it's not just name recognition; the NYT/Siena polls (which you tout highly) went into this question in depth.  They found that among voters who were familiar with both Biden and Warren, a strong majority preferred Biden.  To put it simply: there probably aren't a lot of persuadable voters left in the American electorate, but it looks like more of them can be persuaded to vote for Biden than Warren.

Also, "fiscal responsibility" is probably not a card that Republicans can play after the way they've zoomed up the deficit since Trump took office.

[GeorgiaModerate]

(...typical rant deleted...)

The fact that people like you consistently try to run down Biden reinforces my belief that he's the strongest Democratic candidate.