NYT/Siena Polls of 6 Battleground States

[Cinemark]

I know Sienna is very accurate, but some of these numbers are hard to swallow. Michigan being to the right of Florida and Arizona being the biggest red flag.

[Cinemark]

Im not gonna pick apart Siena, especially after 2018. Its not surprising that Trump is holding up better in the midwest compared to the other regions of the country.

I also wished they polled his job approvals. He was at 45/54 in 2018 exit polls, that seems about where he still is in these states too. Maybe a few points better than that.

[Cinemark]

Im not gonna pick apart Siena, especially after 2018. Its not surprising that Trump is holding up better in the midwest compared to the other regions of the country.

I also wished they polled his job approvals. He was at 45/54 in 2018 exit polls, that seems about where he still is in these states too. Maybe a few points better than that.

In the swing states in the 2018 exit polls he was at 51% approval in Florida, 50% in Arizona, 48% in Wisconsin and 45% in Pennsylvania & Michigan.

Yes, and this seems to show Trump with similar numbers in the midwest and falling elsewhere.

[Cinemark]

Its really important to note that Trump is only at about 45% except in NC, where he's at 47%, and IA, where they had a small sample and had Trump at 45-47%. We are a year out as well, so dont start freaking out or cheering because of this poll.

Trump is certainly not a strong incumbent, but it doesnt seem like his challenger are all that strong either.

[Cinemark]

Gore? Michelle Obama? Karl Dean? We need backups.

Klobuchar.

[Cinemark]

https://twitter.com/jbouie/status/1191328375010402304

We are a year out.

Democrats dont need to be crapping their pants after one poll.

[Cinemark]

good poll for trump of course: in the same time, you can't to be at 40 % on Joob approval or 12 % behind Biden  at national level and to have "good" result in IA, PA, FL and so on. Note again that's registered voters, not likely.

And sienna was very good in 2018 so yes, a good poll for the donald.

Irony is that NYT  gives a good result to Trump and fox news a very bad (I know, newspapers are not the pollsters but well...)

Trump only polling in the mid to low 40s in this poll so its not impossible for him to be in the low 40s nationally.

[Cinemark]

Let me put it this way, Trump is at 45% between all these swing states. Thats about what he got in 2016. He won't win with 45%. Problem is, the three front runners arent performing all that well either. So, bad things for both sides i guess.

[Cinemark]

Interesting:

Will vote for Trump/will vote for the Dem nominee in 2020:

Wisconsin: 40/46%
Pennsylvania: 41/45%
Florida: 39/43%
Arizona: 41/44%
Michigan: 38/41%
Iowa: 41/43%
NC: 44/45%

[Cinemark]

I think something that should give democrats pause is that there are quite a few Biden voters who think Warren and Sanders are too far to the left and wont vote for them. It certainly is giving me pause.

[Cinemark]

I will say I'm a tad turned off by Nate Cohn trying to explain why his poll is better than everyone else's poll.

[Cinemark]

I will say I'm a tad turned off by Nate Cohn trying to explain why his poll is better than everyone else's poll.

Why? Everyone else would attack him if he didn't

To an extent but let the numbers speak for themselves. Sienna is the second most accurate pollster in the country according to 538, he doesnt need to spend two days explaining why his poll shows better numbers for Trump then everybody else's. Its a good poll with sound methodology, but so are the ABC and Fox News polls.

[Cinemark]

Republicans ran 1.5% ahead of trump in the Virginia senate and basically even in the Virginia house, those results would suggest this poll is to pessimistic on trump’s numbers.

What in the world?