A few thoughts, in no particular order:
These are mostly pretty good polls for Trump, from a very good pollster. Democrats shouldn't try to pick holes in them, but should recognize that Trump does have a realistic possibility of replicating his electoral inside straight from 2016. However, neither should Republicans use these polls to assume that Trump is a strong favorite for reelection; he isn't. It's possible to draw two inside straights in a row...but it sure isn't a good bet.
It's true that the election is still a year away. There are one or two people here who routinely say "polls this far in advance are meaningless" -- at least when they don't like the results. For those who really think polls are meaningless at this point, why are you wasting your time on a polling board? Check back in July or so.
Polling this far in advance indeed has low predictive value for the state of the race a year from now. But it's not zero, and the value is gradually increasing as the election gets closer. Also, although the polls don't tell us much about the November 2020 state of the race, they do tell us quite a lot about the state of the race now, especially when there are many polls that can be averaged together.
Those polls do tell us a story: Trump is the underdog at this point, but certainly not out of it yet. And he does better against some candidates than others. In particular, the large majority of polls show that Biden has the best results against Trump, and looking at the average (don't cherry pick individual polls) he does significantly better than Warren does.
This is not just a matter of name recognition at this point. Anyone who's following the campaign at all (and polls consistently show a record level of interest and enthusiasm for this election) knows who Warren is at this point.
Could Warren beat Trump? Sure, it's very possible. But at this point in the race, Biden looks like a significantly stronger candidate against Trump. If this doesn't match your preferences, it's too bad; that's what the data says. As an old poker buddy of mine once said: no matter how long you stare at a deuce in your hand, it will not transform into an ace.
Why is Warren running behind Biden? Polls that probe this question, as the Upshot polls did, tend to show that she has specific weakness especially among the working class voters who, for better or worse, have a disproportionate electoral influence at this point in presidential politics. Perhaps this isn't justified or fair, but it's the way that it is. Again, look at the damn data.
Personally, I'll vote for any Democrat over Trump, but I'm rooting for Biden, and not just because I'm a moderate. At this point, he has the best chance to beat Trump. That's my ONLY concern right now, and I think it should be every Democrat's only concern.
Again, it's certainly possible that Warren can beat Trump. But that sure looks like a shakier proposition than Biden beating Trump. Every Democrat out there needs to ask themselves: would I rather lose with Warren or win with Biden? Of course neither of those outcomes is a given, but right now it sure looks like Biden is more likely than not to beat Trump, while Warren is IMO a 50-50 bet.
