NYT/Siena Polls of 6 Battleground States
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 05:17:08 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  NYT/Siena Polls of 6 Battleground States
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7
Author Topic: NYT/Siena Polls of 6 Battleground States  (Read 13199 times)
Cinemark
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 870


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: November 04, 2019, 08:28:00 AM »

Its really important to note that Trump is only at about 45% except in NC, where he's at 47%, and IA, where they had a small sample and had Trump at 45-47%. We are a year out as well, so dont start freaking out or cheering because of this poll.

Trump is certainly not a strong incumbent, but it doesnt seem like his challenger are all that strong either.
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,684
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: November 04, 2019, 08:29:38 AM »

Gore? Michelle Obama? Karl Dean? We need backups.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,579
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: November 04, 2019, 08:30:14 AM »

Its really important to note that Trump is only at about 45% except in NC, where he's at 47%, and IA, where they had a small sample and had Trump at 45-47%. We are a year out as well, so dont start freaking out or cheering because of this poll.

No, Iowa was polled separately, and the sample is from 1400 RV, which certainly isn't small lol.
Logged
Cinemark
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 870


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: November 04, 2019, 08:32:07 AM »

Gore? Michelle Obama? Karl Dean? We need backups.

Klobuchar.
Logged
Heebie Jeebie
jeb_arlo
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,178
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: November 04, 2019, 08:34:49 AM »

Logged
Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,207
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: November 04, 2019, 08:41:33 AM »

Why is Warren doing better in Arizona then Michigan or Pennsylvania
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,717


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: November 04, 2019, 08:43:06 AM »

The racial cross-tabs show something I've suspected: white voters have basically been locked in on Trump since 2016 by education level. Biden gets a few more college educated types who are scared off my left-wing rhetoric from Sanders and Warren (because only college educated types explicitly care about ideology). Blacks and Hispanics may swing toward Trump, probably modestly.
Logged
slothdem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 531


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: November 04, 2019, 08:44:35 AM »

Why is Warren doing better in Arizona then Michigan or Pennsylvania

Because trends are real.
Logged
Cinemark
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 870


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: November 04, 2019, 08:45:19 AM »



We are a year out.

Democrats dont need to be crapping their pants after one poll.
Logged
Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,207
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: November 04, 2019, 08:45:57 AM »

Also how can Warren be doing worse in Michigan then Wisconsin. Trends wise that makes no sense
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,805
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: November 04, 2019, 09:05:38 AM »

Looks like were are back to 278, but AZ numbers are misleading
Logged
Umengus
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,474
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: November 04, 2019, 09:11:15 AM »
« Edited: November 04, 2019, 09:14:29 AM by Umengus »

good poll for trump of course: in the same time, you can't to be at 40 % on Joob approval or 12 % behind Biden  at national level and to have "good" result in IA, PA, FL and so on. Note again that's registered voters, not likely.

And sienna was very good in 2018 so yes, a good poll for the donald.

Irony is that NYT  gives a good result to Trump and fox news a very bad Wink (I know, newspapers are not the pollsters but well...)
Logged
Wiz in Wis
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,711


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: November 04, 2019, 09:13:17 AM »

Also how can Warren be doing worse in Michigan then Wisconsin. Trends wise that makes no sense

In the methods write up, Nate Cohn notes that the Michigan poll had a lower than expected completion rate (500 completes vs goal of 650) and higher variability due to post-weighting, making the Michigan numbers a bit more wonky than for the other states.

Not that a difference of a few points is actually a big deal in a poll. That will just happen.
Logged
JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,536
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: November 04, 2019, 09:14:27 AM »

A 13 point difference between this and Emerson for Warren in Michigan.  Yeah one of these is really wrong, and it isn't Emerson this time.
Logged
Umengus
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,474
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: November 04, 2019, 09:15:24 AM »

A 13 point difference between this and Emerson for Warren in Michigan.  Yeah one of these is really wrong, and it isn't Emerson this time.

and Trump + 2 in NV... per emerson. So, I'm going with siena.
Logged
Holy Unifying Centrist
DTC
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,201


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.54

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: November 04, 2019, 09:15:33 AM »

A 13 point difference between this and Emerson for Warren in Michigan.  Yeah one of these is really wrong, and it isn't Emerson this time.

Emerson’s Michigan sample was 46% college educated. Michigan is around 32% educated. Emerson is much more wrong.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: November 04, 2019, 09:22:16 AM »

Ow.
Logged
Cinemark
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 870


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: November 04, 2019, 09:24:49 AM »

good poll for trump of course: in the same time, you can't to be at 40 % on Joob approval or 12 % behind Biden  at national level and to have "good" result in IA, PA, FL and so on. Note again that's registered voters, not likely.

And sienna was very good in 2018 so yes, a good poll for the donald.

Irony is that NYT  gives a good result to Trump and fox news a very bad Wink (I know, newspapers are not the pollsters but well...)

Trump only polling in the mid to low 40s in this poll so its not impossible for him to be in the low 40s nationally.
Logged
Cinemark
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 870


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: November 04, 2019, 09:36:18 AM »

Let me put it this way, Trump is at 45% between all these swing states. Thats about what he got in 2016. He won't win with 45%. Problem is, the three front runners arent performing all that well either. So, bad things for both sides i guess.
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,934
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: November 04, 2019, 09:37:01 AM »

These polls probably show what Trump's ceiling is, but he's not going to win next year. Undecideds break for the challenger (as Republicans constantly say).
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: November 04, 2019, 09:37:37 AM »

Attn blue avatars

I am a red avatar who is reading and acknowledging this poll is bad news for Dems in general and for my choice Warren in particular.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,805
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: November 04, 2019, 09:37:58 AM »

Why didnt they poll AZ Senate? It would of been nice. If Biden is leading in FL, he isnt tied with Trump in MI
Logged
Epaminondas
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,742


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: November 04, 2019, 09:38:06 AM »

Excellent news, there was too much complacency around here since the Fox News polls.

2020 in battlegrounds states will be WI-GOV 18 times ten: tight races everywhere.
The rest of the country will have neatly shuffled into boxes.
Logged
The Mikado
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,678


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: November 04, 2019, 09:38:55 AM »



While I doubt it would happen, something weird like this map (Trump 275-Dem 263) can't be ruled out. It'd be a HELL of a post-election discussion.
Logged
Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,047


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: November 04, 2019, 09:44:28 AM »

I really wish they had polled GA and TX as well.

Anyway, this poll is not great for Democrats and shows that Trump is still very much in it. The results for the three Midwest battleground states, in particular, are much more believable than some of the other polls we've been seeing.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.039 seconds with 13 queries.