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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  TX-UT/Texas Tribune: Trump +5 to +13
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Author Topic: TX-UT/Texas Tribune: Trump +5 to +13  (Read 914 times)
gracile
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« on: November 04, 2019, 01:09:21 am »
« edited: November 04, 2019, 01:15:24 am by gracile »

This poll was conducted before Beto O'Rourke dropped out.

Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
Joe Biden (D) 39%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 39%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Bernie Sanders (D) 40%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 41%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
Julian Castro (D) 33%

https://www.texastribune.org/2019/11/04/democrats-dont-have-candidate-who-would-beat-trump-texas-today-poll/
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2019, 01:18:58 am »

Polls showing Dems leading in TX, were too good to be true.
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Old School Republican
Computer89
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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2019, 01:21:32 am »

Warren and Sanders will underperform this polls while Biden will definitely over perform it
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2019, 01:23:11 am »

Warren and Sanders will underperform this polls while Biden will definitely over perform it

Any reason why besides muh bad fit for the sunbelt? To clarify, I'm not suggesting this poll is accurate or doesn't have flaws, just questioning that assumption.
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Computer89
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2019, 01:27:08 am »

Warren and Sanders will underperform this polls while Biden will definitely over perform it

Any reason why besides muh bad fit for the sunbelt? To clarify, I'm not suggesting this poll is accurate or doesn't have flaws, just questioning that assumption.

Sanders is a bad fit for the Rust Belt and Warren is just a bad fit period(She would do terribly in both the Sunbelt and Rust Belt).


The fact is the Sunbelt will not like Sanders/Warren position on trade which is even more protectionist than Trump , and will not like their position on Taxes.


On the other hand Biden is a great fit for both the Rust Belt and Sunbelt because he can appeal to both to WWC Voters and Upscale Suburbanites .
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2019, 01:39:03 am »

It's almost Jan, and it's almost time to vote, on-line polling is unrealiable; whereas, phone polling is reliable. The samething happens during GE, the polling gets tighter when the election gets near. Sanders and Warren are splitting the progressive vote
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OneJ
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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2019, 07:00:13 am »

Warren and Sanders will underperform this polls while Biden will definitely over perform it

Any reason why besides muh bad fit for the sunbelt? To clarify, I'm not suggesting this poll is accurate or doesn't have flaws, just questioning that assumption.

Sanders is a bad fit for the Rust Belt and Warren is just a bad fit period(She would do terribly in both the Sunbelt and Rust Belt).


The fact is the Sunbelt will not like Sanders/Warren position on trade which is even more protectionist than Trump , and will not like their position on Taxes.


On the other hand Biden is a great fit for both the Rust Belt and Sunbelt because he can appeal to both to WWC Voters and Upscale Suburbanites .

I thought we'd have all learned our lessons by now about how meaningless "good/bad fits" are, especially in this era.
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mollybecky
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2019, 08:16:09 am »

Such a pathetic showing for Castro.  Give it up.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2019, 11:39:09 am »

Texas straddles 400 electoral votes for a Democratic nominee for President, as has been so since the 1990's when Bill Clinton barely lost it Texas voting for a Democratic nominee for President indicates a landslide stronger than the decisive wins for Bill Clinton in the 1990s or Obama in 2008. The last two Democratic nominees to get 400 or more electoral votes were LBJ and FDR.

There is no reason for anyone to believe that Texas is not in the same spot in the electoral college.
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Laki
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2019, 12:25:03 pm »

2020 is too early for TX to flip, and if it does, the Dems win with an 400 electoral landslide. I think this poll is about right.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2019, 01:04:39 pm »

It's very unlikely that the Democrat will get under 40%.
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