KY, MS etc. Results Thread

[Tintrlvr]

Not sure why people don't think McConnell could lose. He's just as unpopular as Bevin is.

McConnell is a far more competent candidate than Bevin (tbf, literally everyone is) and will be up for reelection in a presidential year, that’s why.

And is a federal official vs. state, which is the most significant factor.

[Badger]

So does this mean McConnel can lose

Slow down, tiger

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Icespear is unavailable for comment due to their mouth being full of crow feathers

[Frodo]

So Gov. Matt Bevin follows Ernie Fletcher's fate being a one-term wonder.  Good to see. 

[BP🌹]

One potentially interesting result to wait on in eastern Kentucky: Rowan County is the only eastern Kentucky county not reporting anything yet. It was by far Clinton's best county in eastern Kentucky in 2016; she held on to 37% of the vote there. But it's not typically especially Democratic, voting for Conway only narrowly over Bevin, 49-46, in 2015.

Edit: It's also the home of the infamous Kim Davis.

I asked about this before, and given what we are seeing now, Beshear will definitely win Rowan.

He already has.

[libertpaulian]

Is it too late for Andy Beshear to jump into the presidential race? Beshear 2020.

I'd rate his chances higher than Steve Bullock's, lol.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

88.1% in - Beshear ahead 2.3%

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Bandit reminds me of that minor character from Anne of Avonlea who predicted a hundred-year thunderstorm on and off for decades, and earned a reputation as a weather prophet when one finally happened.

[Oryxslayer]

Not sure why people don't think McConnell could lose. He's just as unpopular as Bevin is.

Federal vs. state.

The  last time unpopularity was a serious anchor federally was 2012 in Indiana and Missouri, correct? It's statistically proven that governor races see the partisan base of a state and divide it by two (down from a divider by 3 or 4) when compared to Federal elections.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Icespear said Bevin was inevitable,  ha. He who laughs have the last laugh

[Tintrlvr]

One potentially interesting result to wait on in eastern Kentucky: Rowan County is the only eastern Kentucky county not reporting anything yet. It was by far Clinton's best county in eastern Kentucky in 2016; she held on to 37% of the vote there. But it's not typically especially Democratic, voting for Conway only narrowly over Bevin, 49-46, in 2015.

Edit: It's also the home of the infamous Kim Davis.

I asked about this before, and given what we are seeing now, Beshear will definitely win Rowan.

I'm sure he wins Rowan; it's more of a question of whether it will continue its 2016 pattern of being the strongest Dem county in eastern Kentucky or will it fall back in line with historical patterns. I'm not sure at all why Clinton did so much better (/less badly) there than elsewhere in eastern Kentucky.

Edit: And it's in, Beshear wins 58% so less than Elliott but still solidly Democratic.

[JG]

There is still quite a few counties who have yet to report any results. Could they be big enough to tip the election in Bevin's favor?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

It's been half an hour. Why no results for Mississippi yet?

[Senator Spark]

There is still quite a few counties who have yet to report any results. Could they be big enough to tip the election in Bevin's favor?

Possibly

[Calthrina950]

Well, that settles KY for Beshear even before any MS votes have come in, who would have predicted that? I also thought that Bevin was slightly favored (Tossup/Tilt R), but I’m almost grateful that the unbelievably smug and insufferable Safe R posters have been proven wrong. This is why you don’t make overconfident predictions, especially when you’ve been consistently wrong before (AL-SEN 2017, WV-GOV 2016, etc.).

You're right. I am happy to see that I was wrong, and given that Manchin did indeed hold on in West Virginia last year, I shouldn't have discounted Beshear's chances. However, I was doing so out of pessimism, and not out of a desire for Bevin to win, as I've already made clear.

At any rate, this is very good to see!

[DeSantis4Prez]

It's been half an hour. Why no results for Mississippi yet?

NYT said 8:30 is when results will come in

[H. Ross Peron]

There is still quite a few counties who have yet to report any results. Could they be big enough to tip the election in Bevin's favor?

No.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Remember when Atlas said Beshear was gonna lose by 5-9 points?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It's been half an hour. Why no results for Mississippi yet?

The guy carrying the votes to Jackson got eaten by an alligator.

[Pericles]

There is still quite a few counties who have yet to report any results. Could they be big enough to tip the election in Bevin's favor?

Possibly

Nope, not happening.

[Tintrlvr]

There is still quite a few counties who have yet to report any results. Could they be big enough to tip the election in Bevin's favor?

Highly unlikely. They are all very small. Beshear has a 23,000-vote margin, and we're talking about counties with maybe a grand total of 30,000 votes among them. One of them, Union County, is the most Democratic county in western Kentucky, too, based on 2015 results.

[Pericles]

Remember when Atlas said Beshear was gonna lose by 5-9 points?

Didn't Trendsarereal think it'd be a double-digit margin?

[Badger]

I had one too many free articles recently and can't get past the nyt firewall. Where is the outstanding vote from at this point? Who does it favor and how heavily?

[OBD]

I had one too many free articles recently and can't get past the nyt firewall. Where is the outstanding vote from at this point? Who does it favor and how heavily?

Beshear's up by 2, urban areas look to be all in though. 89% reporting.

[DeSantis4Prez]

I had one too many free articles recently and can't get past the nyt firewall. Where is the outstanding vote from at this point? Who does it favor and how heavily?

Go on CNN or Politico. Favoring Bevin but not enough.