Timeline: The Red (Atlas Blue) Wave 2016-2024

[538Electoral]

2016 Election Night: BREAKING NEWS, In a big upset. Donald Trump has won the presidency and he did so pretty convincingly.

Trump - 350
Clinton - 188

Meanwhile, The Senate map is looking like it will be Republican+1 with Democrats picking up Illinois and Republicans picking up Nevada and a very surprising pickup in Colorado.

It's a 55-45 senate now.

Republicans will have a pickup of 5 seats in the House for a 252-183 majority.

Republicans pretty convincingly swept 2016, And this is only the beginning of a long streak of Republican dominance.

Would anyone like to guess how the 2018 midterms end up? Things will be VERY different than what actually happened.

[538Electoral]

January 20th, 2017: Trump inaugurated, Goes into presidency with negative approval ratings.

Trump Approval: 46%
Trump Disapproval: 49%

[Roll Roons]

Would anyone like to guess how the 2018 midterms end up? Things will be VERY different than what actually happened.

Based on the title, I'm guessing the GOP picked up more seats in the Senate (very possibly getting a supermajority) and limited their House losses to less than 10.

[DeSantis4Prez]

I like this. For midterms, i'm guessing the GOP holds the house, 60-40 in the Senate, wins all of the close Governors races (3-5%)

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

Background
At the start of 2018 Democrats led the generic ballot by 10 points, most polls had Trumps approval under 40%, and Democrats felt pretty confident that they would flip Congress in the upcoming midterms. However, as primary season began it began clear it was going to be extremely competitive, by the summer the Democrats generic ballot lead had shrunk to 5 points, and on the back of a booming economy and the passage of a bipartisan Infrastructure package in the spring, Trumps approval has risen into the mid 40s on average causing Democrats massive concern (though party leadership tried their best to conceal this publicly). Then at the worst possible time, on September 27th Robert Mueller announced the conclusion of the special counsel investigation, with no charges against Kushner or Don Jr. along with no evidence of Collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russian government. This proved devastating for Democrats, as immediately Fox News and other Right-wing media outlets accused Democrats of wasting over a year and millions of taxpayer money on what they described as a "Biased and fraudulent investigation that found absolutely Nothing". The day after the investigation ended Trump pardoned Micheal Flynn (who was convicted in Federal court of Perjury a month earlier and was awaiting sentencing), Democrats were immediately furious and accused the president of bailing out his criminal associate, however polling conducted over the next few days showed over 50% of voters supported Trumps decision to pardon Flynn and agreed that the Russia investigation was a waste of time and money. Meanwhile on October 15th the Dow jones hit 30,000 due to massive growth (the first three quarters grew 3.5%, 3.2%, and 3.8% respectively) which only strengthened the approval bounce Trump recieved due to the positive conclusion of the Mueller probe. Due to these developments by the Day before the midterms, Trumps Approval was averaging in the low 50s and the Democrats generic ballot lead had fallen to nothing (the RCP average showed Democrats and Republicans tied at 45%). Even more disturbing for Democrats the last polls showed Democratic incumbents trailing in 5 senate races (WV, ND, MT, IN, and MO) tied in two (FL and OH) and barely leading in three (PA, MI, and WI) while Republican incumbents were ahead comfortably in 6 senate races (TX, TN, MS, NE, UT, and WY) leading slightly in one (AZ) and tied in one (NV). This set the stage for one of the most crucial Midterms in American history, would Republicans defy history and post massive gains (as the polls suggest) or would Democrats shock the nation and post come from behind victories and preserve the trend of Midterms hurting the incumbent party?

[538Electoral]

2017 GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION RESULTS

NEW JERSEY: DEMOCRATIC GAIN

MURPHY: 52.1%
GUADAGNO: 47.2%

VIRGINIA: REPUBLICAN GAIN

GILLESPIE: 50.3%
NORTHAM: 48.9%

ALABAMA 2017 SPECIAL ELECTION RESULTS

MOORE: 53.2%
JONES: 46.0%

[538Electoral]

January 28th, 2018: Trump launches a trade war with China and plans a summit with North Korea leader Kim-Jong Un as tensions with North Korea are at boiling point.

March 13th, 2018: Trump schedules a meeting with Kim-Jong Un for March 30th, 2018.

March 30th, 2018: Trump and Kim-Jong Un have a meeting.

April 13th, 2018: Trump, The UK and France opt not to strike Syria.

April 27th, 2018: UN has announced that North Korea has dismantled half of it's nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, It's looking more and more likely the US will come out on top in the Trade War with China as China looks to give the US some major concessions. The DOW increases to 28,000.

May 8th, 2018: After a hard decision, Trump opts to not have the US pull out of the Iran Nuclear Deal.

May 17th, 2018: China concedes it has lost the Trade War. Promises to give the US better trade deals and cuts US debt to China by one-third. The DOW is over 30,000 at this point.

June 13th, 2018: Trump opts for a peace deal with Russia, Begins to close US bases around Russia in exchange for Russia pulling out of Europe.

June 30th, 2018: With all of his foreign policy and economic successes, Trump sits at a 60% approval rating and Republicans are leading Democrats by 6 points in the generic ballot.

[538Electoral]

July 11th, 2018: Trump and top Democrats strike a compromise on the border. Build a little bit of the wall, but don't separate families at the border.

August 1st, 2018: Trump announces that the US will withdraw all troops from Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria without delay.

The next months leading up to the election are rather uneventful for the most part.

November 6th, 2018: Dow is at 33,500.

EXIT POLLS

Trump approval: 65%
Trump disapproval: 31%

Country in right direction: 59%
Country on wrong track: 38%

I support Trump for the 2020 presidential election: 55%
I support the Democratic candidate for the 2020 presidential election: 41%

I voted Republican: 54%
I voted Democratic: 42%

[538Electoral]

7PM Poll losings:

INDIANA SENATE: REPUBLICAN GAIN

This isn't a shock as it looks like we're headed for a massive Republican wave tonight. Mike Braun was up double digits in polling against incumbent Democrat Joe Donnelly. This is the first of presumably many gains for Trump and his Republican Party tonight.

VERMONT SENATOR: INDEPENDENT-DEMOCRAT HOLD

VERMONT GOVERNOR: REPUBLICAN HOLD

SOUTH CAROLINA GOVERNOR: REPUBLICAN HOLD

VIRGINIA SENATOR: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

This race between incumbent Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Corey Stewart is too close to call. Thought to be out of play a few months ago, Several polls over the last couple weeks showed this race within the margin of error.

Any thoughts on how the night will go from here?

[538Electoral]

7:30PM poll closings:

OHIO GOVERNOR: REPUBLICAN HOLD

Governor Mike DeWine will easily win against Democrat Richard Cordray.

OHIO SENATOR: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Also in Ohio, A surprisingly competitive race between Sherrod Brown and Jim Renacci is too close to call.

WEST VIRGINIA SENATOR: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

In West Virginia, It's too close to call between Joe Manchin and Patrick Morrisey.

SENATE MAP AT THIS TIME

GOVERNORS MAP AT THIS TIME

[538Electoral]

8PM Poll Closings:

MISSOURI SENATE: REPUBLICAN GAIN

Josh Hawley will win against incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill.

MISSISSIPPI SENATE ELECTIONS AND TENNESSEE: REPUBLICAN HOLDS

MASSACHUSETTS, CONNECTICUT, RHODE ISLAND, MARYLAND AND DELAWARE: DEMOCRATIC HOLDS

MAINE SENATE: TOO EARLY TO CALL

FLORIDA, PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY SENATE ELECTIONS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

WEST VIRGINIA: REPUBLICAN GAIN

Patrick Morrisey has won against incumbent Joe Manchin.

OKLAHOMA, TENNESSEE, ALABAMA, MASSACHUSETTS, MARYLAND AND NEW HAMPSHIRE GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS: REPUBLICAN HOLDS

CONNECTICUT GUBERNATORIAL: REPUBLICAN GAIN

Bob Stefanowski picks this seat up.

MAINE, RHODE ISLAND, ILLINOIS, FLORIDA AND PENNSYLANIA GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

SENATE MAP

GOVERNORS MAP

[DeSantis4Prez]

BOB!!

[538Electoral]

8:30PM

ARKANSAS GOVERNOR: REPUBLICAN HOLD

Sorry for not updating in a while.

[538Electoral]

9PM:

SENATE

ARIZONA, NEBRASKA, TEXAS AND WYOMING: REPUBLICAN HOLDS

NEW YORK AND MINNESOTA: DEMOCRATIC HOLDS

NORTH DAKOTA SENATE: REPUBLICAN GAIN

This isn't a huge surprise but Kevin Cramer will beat incumbent Democrat Heidi Heitkamp by an overwhelming margin.

FLORIDA SENATE: REPUBLICAN GAIN

Rick Scott picks this seat up from incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson. This race looks like it's going to Scott by a larger margin than expected.

MICHIGAN, MN-SPECIAL, NEW MEXICO AND WISCONSIN: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

GOVERNORS

ARIZONA, KANSAS, NEBRASKA, SOUTH DAKOTA, TEXAS AND WYOMING: REPUBLICAN HOLDS
NEW YORK: DEMOCRATIC HOLD

FLORIDA: REPUBLICAN HOLD

Previously too close to call, Ron DeSantis will win against Andrew Gillum.

COLORADO, MICHIGAN, MINNESOTA, NEW MEXICO AND WISCONSIN: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

CURRENT SENATE MAP

CURRENT GOVERNORS MAP

[538Electoral]

The midterms have ended: Republicans now have 69 seats in the senate and now control all but six governorships. The Republicans also gained two seats in the House to have a 243-192 majority.

MN Special: Republicans pick the seat up.

FINAL SENATE RESULTS: REPUBLICANS PICK UP 14 SEATS

I included the eventual 2019 governorship results in this too.

FINAL GOVERNOR RESULTS: REPUBLICANS PICK UP 8 GOVERNORSHIPS AND NOW HAVE ALL BUT 6 GOVERNORSHIPS. (As you might have guessed, MT and NC both went to Republicans in 2016)

[Morgan Kingsley]

I know this is a silly question, but what is the popular vote in 2016 here

[538Electoral]

I know this is a silly question, but what is the popular vote in 2016 here

Trump 50%
Clinton 45%

[538Electoral]

May 2020: Biden becomes Democratic presumptive nominee.

After a contested primary battle early on, Biden has become the presumptive nominee.

However, Here's what polling looks like at this point:

Trump: 52%
Biden: 43%