This likely = a small Dem lead given well known Nevada polling problems, but emphasis on small. Nevada should continue to be a Trump > Generic R state. I fully expect it to be within 5 again and give Trump about 1 in 3 odds of winning.
So Trump is down 5-8 nationally but tied or ahead in NV? I agree that he has a fairly high floor in NV, but there’s really no way he’s doing this well in the state. Don’t be fooled by NV polling again.
I think the state will track closely to the popular vote, but given that the popular vote is pretty much Safe D...
I think he's actually only down 3ish nationally. See the other thread here I recently posted in.
