What happens if he wins this year and gets a more favorable district in 2022?
In all likelihood and assuming MN has its three rural districts merge into two, this won't happen. His new district might have a lower R PVI, but that's a small comfort if redistricting ensures the new district (in proportional terms) is less dominated than previously by former constituents who were prepared to vote for him. Trying to make new split ticket voters is even harder than hanging onto current ones.
He could still win in a squeaker of the PVI shrinks by 7.5%+, but things only significantly improve for Peterson if he moves into a CD which is mostly suburban or urban but has a small part of his old district. It's not unlikely he decides to retire irrespective of electoral advantage anyway, having previously said in 2014 (when thinking about retirement) that he'd be running 'through 2020'.
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