VA/CO/NM/NV

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

In 2064 I'll be 87, so that's most likely the last election I'll see. So, 12 more cycles for me. In the previous 12, every state except DC has gone Republican, but the following states have never gone Democratic:

ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, ID, WY, UT, AK

These are states that, these days, are typically 20 to 50 points to the right of the nation. The following states are the Democratic counterparts, and virtually guaranteed not to flip without a major realignment:

DC, HI, VT, MA, CA, MD, NY

Do any of VA/CO/NM/NV look like they will enter that tier? No.

Here are states that almost certainly will never flip, but could in a major GOP landslide:

IL, CT, RI, NJ, DE, WA

Virginia is moving into this tier by 2024 if not in 2020. I don't expect to see it flip back in my lifetime.

I think New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado are entering a tier that includes Oregon and... Oregon. States that could flip for the right GOP candidate in the right kind of year. I think they will go R again at least once in my lifetime.