I voted for the third option, but re: The fourth one... I’ve never heard of this before. Would you care to enlighten me?
Ok, so in 1884, President Chester Arthur, who ascended to the office after Garfield's Assassination in 1881, was extremely Popular but he was in poor health (he was ill with Bright's disease) so he didn't campaign as heavily for the nomination (He wouldn't have been renominated as he never got the nom in the first place), instead losing it to the corrupt Blaine from Maine, who would go on to lose to Cleveland in the general. If Arthur campaigned a tad bit harder for the nomination, it's likely he would've won, likely winning NY by a point or two and flipping CT and maybe NJ or IN in the general against Cleveland but he he was still ill and would've died in 1886 per OTL or even earlier due to the stress of the job, meaning his VP would've succeeded him as president.
Now as to who his VP would've, a lot of people were considered, but the one man people really wanted for the job was Honest Abe's son, Secretary of War, Robert Todd Lincoln, who was the only Garfield Cabinet member Arthur kept, so Lincoln was personally loyal to him.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/robert-todd-lincoln-possibly-president.350654/#post-10604233This post explains the situation far better than I can, so 1884 would've seen the Republican ticket be Arthur/Lincoln had it been for that telegram.
Hopefully this answer is satisfying. I love to help educate people on the obscure.