How will Beshear do in Elliot County?

[ElectionsGuy]

The most important County for Beshear tomorrow will be Jefferson County. He needs to win that 58-42 or something like that to have a chance maybe even higher.

He needs to get 65%+ to have a chance. He'll probably get >60%, but not the 65-67% that he needs.

[One Term Floridian]

The most important County for Beshear tomorrow will be Jefferson County. He needs to win that 58-42 or something like that to have a chance maybe even higher.

Beshear almost certainly needs to cross 60% in JeffCo to offset the rurals bleeding even further to the GOP

[DINGO Joe]

Elliot only cast 1200 votes in 2015, they cast about 2100 in the primary this year because Rocky was on the ballot.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The most important County for Beshear tomorrow will be Jefferson County. He needs to win that 58-42 or something like that to have a chance maybe even higher.

He needs to get 65%+ to have a chance. He'll probably get >60%, but not the 65-67% that he needs.

He probably needs 70%+ to even get within single digits statewide. KY is more rural than TN, and Bredesen getting 70% in Nashville was only enough to get to 43% of the state vote.

[lfromnj]

The most important County for Beshear tomorrow will be Jefferson County. He needs to win that 58-42 or something like that to have a chance maybe even higher.

Uh he definetely needs to win it higher considering Clinton won Jefferson by 14.

[Oryxslayer]

The most important County for Beshear tomorrow will be Jefferson County. He needs to win that 58-42 or something like that to have a chance maybe even higher.

Uh he definetely needs to win it higher considering Clinton won Jefferson by 14.

Jefferson should be 70-30 or better for Beshear, with respectable turnout, to be on track for a win.

[jamestroll]

I do not know about them but I am far more concerned with the Democratic margins in Jefferson and Fayette and how large Democrats can win Franklin County. Plus let's not forget the Cincinnati suburbs.


How Elliott County itself votes will barely have an impact of the election. My main concern is if we could reduce the margin in the rural areas rather than how a single puny county will vote.

[Donerail]

The first precinct in beautiful Elliot County is in — 72-27 BESHEAR.

[Oryxslayer]

I accept all blame  if it flips, but Elliot looks to be making some  of the  prediction here look LOL tier.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Ahahhahahahhahahhahaha

[Mr. Smith]

Well sh&^, I guess that means Politician is gonna be the insufferable one instead of IceSpear.

[Gone to Carolina]

Tfw everyone here (including me) is about to get humiliated.

[Donerail]

Bevin wins.

Another #bold prediction I have for KY-GOV is that Bevin wins Elliott, as well as every county except Jefferson, Franklin, and Fayette. He'll certainly do worse than Conway there.

As I've noted previously, Hal Rogers won Elliott County by 8% last year, the first time ever in a competitive race that he had carried it. And given the rural trends that we are seeing, I doubt that Beshear will be able to hold it. Yes, Jim Gray won it by 12% in 2016 while Trump was carrying it by 44% at the same time, but the trends had not played out in full force then, nor had the polarizing effects of Trump's first few years in office. Elliott County is abandoning the Democrats even more rapidly than Vermont abandoned the Republicans, to give a parallel (and in some ways, Vermont has not abandoned them fully, given that it currently has a Republican Governor, however much of a RINO he may be).

I’d wager Elliot votes in line with the state roughly, so high single digits Republican win or something about there.

Probably on the wrong side of a plurality to actually win the county.

I genuinely think Elliot County will vote to the right of the state at large. I'm thinking it will by 5-10%.

He will lose it, but by less than Clinton seems the safe answer here.

Loses statewide by 5 and Elliott by low double digits.

Have to give the edge in Elliott to Bevin.

[DaWN]

Well sh&^, I guess that means Politician is gonna be the insufferable one instead of IceSpear.

He'd be insufferable but on the plus side it'd be fun to watch the R hacks squirm around explaining it so it evens out.

It's still early in the night though.

[Tintrlvr]

Elliot has too blue a base to not vote dem when the state is reasonably competitive. But her once blue neighbors? Yeah, the east is red.

If Beshear wins,he will need something like this map, probably with more coming from the Cincinnati suburbs.

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1189703078842372097

Beshear is currently winning 59% of the vote in Bath County, by the way...

[Mr. Smith]

Tfw everyone here (including me) is about to get humiliated.

Unless you've lost your life savings on PredictIt, I really don't see the point in getting that worked up.

Bevin wins.

Another #bold prediction I have for KY-GOV is that Bevin wins Elliott, as well as every county except Jefferson, Franklin, and Fayette. He'll certainly do worse than Conway there.

As I've noted previously, Hal Rogers won Elliott County by 8% last year, the first time ever in a competitive race that he had carried it. And given the rural trends that we are seeing, I doubt that Beshear will be able to hold it. Yes, Jim Gray won it by 12% in 2016 while Trump was carrying it by 44% at the same time, but the trends had not played out in full force then, nor had the polarizing effects of Trump's first few years in office. Elliott County is abandoning the Democrats even more rapidly than Vermont abandoned the Republicans, to give a parallel (and in some ways, Vermont has not abandoned them fully, given that it currently has a Republican Governor, however much of a RINO he may be).

I’d wager Elliot votes in line with the state roughly, so high single digits Republican win or something about there.

Probably on the wrong side of a plurality to actually win the county.

I genuinely think Elliot County will vote to the right of the state at large. I'm thinking it will by 5-10%.

He will lose it, but by less than Clinton seems the safe answer here.

Loses statewide by 5 and Elliott by low double digits.

Have to give the edge in Elliott to Bevin.

In fairness, there're still 6 other precincts left.

[One Term Floridian]

This is beautiful. Atlas wrong all over again lmao

[Calthrina950]

This is beautiful. Atlas wrong all over again lmao

And in a good way! I'm glad to see that Elliott is actually going for Beshear.

[One Term Floridian]

This is beautiful. Atlas wrong all over again lmao

And in a good way! I'm glad to see that Elliott is actually going for Beshear.

Always thought this county was safe for Beshear, but even I couldn’t have guessed it would be this solid.

[Xing]

Literally 1 precinct is in, with less than 200 votes...

[Oryxslayer]

Literally 1 precinct is in, with less than 200 votes...

This is a small, rather homogeneous county. Sure it's one precinct, but the rest will be somewhat similar.

[Calthrina950]

Literally 1 precinct is in, with less than 200 votes...

This is true. We could still see this race going the trajectory of the Bishop-McCready race back in September, with Bevin regaining the lead and ultimately winning by a narrow margin. But I'm still not certain of it, given how early this is.

[Xing]

Literally 1 precinct is in, with less than 200 votes...

This is true. We could still see this race going the trajectory of the Bishop-McCready race back in September, with Bevin regaining the lead and ultimately winning by a narrow margin. But I'm still not certain of it, given how early this is.

I'll concede that it would take an enormous shift for Bevin to win it at this point, but the eventual margin won't be this lopsided.

[Calthrina950]

Literally 1 precinct is in, with less than 200 votes...

This is true. We could still see this race going the trajectory of the Bishop-McCready race back in September, with Bevin regaining the lead and ultimately winning by a narrow margin. But I'm still not certain of it, given how early this is.

I'll concede that it would take an enormous shift for Bevin to win it at this point, but the eventual margin won't be this lopsided.

You are right about that. And Elliott County in particular may not vote Democratic for a long time after this election cycle.

[Zaybay]

And Beshear has won Elliot county, 59-37.