How will Beshear do in Elliot County?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 07:39:05 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  How will Beshear do in Elliot County?
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4
Author Topic: How will Beshear do in Elliot County?  (Read 7152 times)
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,521
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: November 02, 2019, 03:43:24 PM »

He will lose it, but by less than Clinton seems the safe answer here.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: November 02, 2019, 05:22:32 PM »

Hal Rogers won it by 10%, but he also won the district by 58%, so no one should be surprised if Elliott voted for Beshear. However, the thing is that these trends are so supercharged and the Democratic label so toxic in places like this that uniform swing/overall environment/PVI might be lagging indicators, so don’t be surprised if it (narrowly) votes for Bevin even in a close race. Even in 2018, there were rural counties in NV and OH which swung to the right even as those states moved 50 and 30 points to the left, respectively. There might be just enough voters in 2019 who aren’t going to give a Democratic candidate the time of the day in this environment.

I do think this wouldn’t even be a question if Adkins had been the nominee, though.

I agree with this. This is yet another reason as to why it was a mistake for Democratic primary voters to nominate Beshear, and why he will go down in flames.
Logged
Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,481


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: November 02, 2019, 05:49:23 PM »

Loses statewide by 5 and Elliott by low double digits.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,278


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: November 02, 2019, 06:01:58 PM »

Loses statewide by 5 and Elliott by low double digits.

Lol. Elliott is not voting to the right of the state
Logged
Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,072
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: November 02, 2019, 08:29:42 PM »

Loses statewide by 5 and Elliott by low double digits.

Lol. Elliott is not voting to the right of the state

It did in 2016.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: November 02, 2019, 08:39:00 PM »


Albeit in the presidential, but not Senatorial, race that year. Nevertheless, given polarization, who knows what might happen? It's been almost a year since Rogers' victory in the county, and Democratic strength has probably frayed further there since.
Logged
Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
Fuzzy Bear
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,500
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: November 03, 2019, 06:29:00 AM »




These folks were for the Democrats forty years ago.  Why did the Democrats run them off?
Logged
TDAS04
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,463
Bhutan


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: November 03, 2019, 01:50:00 PM »

Have to give the edge in Elliott to Bevin.
Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,700
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: November 03, 2019, 02:09:08 PM »

Well. Adkins has been campaigning with Beshear on a regular basis, so that will likely count for something.  I'd expect Beshear to win it.
Logged
I Can Now Die Happy
NYC Millennial Minority
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,949
United States
Political Matrix
E: 4.39, S: -4.70

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: November 03, 2019, 02:48:57 PM »

If Jim Gray won it against Rand Paul in 2016 you can reasonably predict it to go to Beshear. Probably Likely D, especially given that Beshear's percentage statewide will probably be higher than Gray's 2016 percentage against Rand Paul.
Logged
slothdem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 531


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: November 03, 2019, 03:14:21 PM »

Beshear will win Rowan and Elliot and nowhere else in the East.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: November 04, 2019, 12:11:01 AM »

Beshear will win Rowan and Elliot and nowhere else in the East.

Rowan, I can see. Elliott, I'm doubtful about. If Beshear does win Elliott, he will probably be the last Democrat to carry it for a long time to come.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: November 04, 2019, 02:15:02 AM »

You know, I will make an exception for trends for this one. I think Beshear wins Elliot county by high singles to low doubles. Some literal rando only lost it by 8% in a federal house race against Hal Rogers, I just fail to see how Bevin wins it.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: November 04, 2019, 10:06:20 AM »

You know, I will make an exception for trends for this one. I think Beshear wins Elliot county by high singles to low doubles. Some literal rando only lost it by 8% in a federal house race against Hal Rogers, I just fail to see how Bevin wins it.

Yes, it's not some outlandish prediction that a county still to the left of the state with a high, albeit degrading Dem floor, is going to vote for the democrat when s/he is on track for a respectable (at the minimum) showing statewide. I shouldn't also be that outlandish a prediction that this may be the last year the counties base is large enough to vote blue in meaningful races. Future occurrences will be limited to the rare blue landslide or no name congressional/local candidates pulling more then their constituencies baseline just by being on the ticket in a hard R region.
Logged
😥
andjey
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,510
Ukraine
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: November 04, 2019, 01:08:29 PM »

Beshear will win it 54-44
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: November 04, 2019, 02:22:17 PM »

I wish this was a poll, so we could see how many people actually think each way. Responses are very mixed.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: November 04, 2019, 02:31:39 PM »

I wish this was a poll, so we could see how many people actually think each way. Responses are very mixed.

There’s a lot of uncertainty not just with places like Elliott but also the race in general, so all we can do is make a rough guess. The lack of polling doesn’t help (although it should at least make election night much more interesting, which is always good).
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,217


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: November 04, 2019, 02:31:39 PM »

I love how one county with 8000 people probably has more posts dedicated to it than its population on an obscure forum called uselectionatlas.org
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,693
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: November 04, 2019, 02:34:03 PM »

Do people seriously think Beshear will underperform the no name some guy who ran against Hal Rogers in 2018 and got about 20% district wide? Because some are predicting him getting less than 46%.

If 46% is Beshear's absolute floor, it's not hard to see him winning it against someone who will definitely significantly underrun Rogers.
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: November 04, 2019, 02:40:13 PM »

Bevin will win Elliott by 20+ points due to Angry Kentucky Democrats revolting against the party for rejecting Elliott County Homegrown Hero™ Rocky Adkins in the primary.
Logged
Holy Unifying Centrist
DTC
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,200


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.54

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: November 04, 2019, 03:10:25 PM »

Do people seriously think Beshear will underperform the no name some guy who ran against Hal Rogers in 2018 and got about 20% district wide? Because some are predicting him getting less than 46%.

If 46% is Beshear's absolute floor, it's not hard to see him winning it against someone who will definitely significantly underrun Rogers.

Yes.

Hit me up after tomorrow and we’ll see who’s right.
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,693
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: November 04, 2019, 03:16:05 PM »

Do people seriously think Beshear will underperform the no name some guy who ran against Hal Rogers in 2018 and got about 20% district wide? Because some are predicting him getting less than 46%.

If 46% is Beshear's absolute floor, it's not hard to see him winning it against someone who will definitely significantly underrun Rogers.

Yes.

Hit me up after tomorrow and we’ll see who’s right.
Reasoning?
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: November 04, 2019, 03:28:45 PM »

Do people seriously think Beshear will underperform the no name some guy who ran against Hal Rogers in 2018 and got about 20% district wide? Because some are predicting him getting less than 46%.

If 46% is Beshear's absolute floor, it's not hard to see him winning it against someone who will definitely significantly underrun Rogers.

Yes.

Hit me up after tomorrow and we’ll see who’s right.
Reasoning?

Loyal Democrats being heavily clustered among the oldest voters is arguably one reason: even a single year's turnover can make a huge difference in terms of performance. Coupled with likely weaker turnout among younger voters (who as a whole are probably still less D than the olds - but more D than voters overall; the youngs who end up not showing are probably more D than the olds) and it's feasible to have a weaker performance.

Not saying I agree that will happen, but that's probably the path of least resistance in explaining how it could happen.
Logged
crazy jimmie
jamespol
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,513


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: November 04, 2019, 03:31:51 PM »

Who cares how this county votes? It literally will make no difference in the eventual result.

I do not know Kentucky well but I would be more concerned with out the Cincinnati suburbs vote which would be a more realistic path for Beshear.
 
Logged
2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: November 04, 2019, 04:08:21 PM »

The most important County for Beshear tomorrow will be Jefferson County. He needs to win that 58-42 or something like that to have a chance maybe even higher.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.055 seconds with 11 queries.