Is it 2007 all over again in KY?
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Author Topic: Is it 2007 all over again in KY?  (Read 1079 times)
coolface1572
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« on: November 01, 2019, 11:04:05 PM »
« edited: November 01, 2019, 11:15:46 PM by coolface1572 »
This Kentucky governor's election has some very interesting parallels to the 2007 election for governor.

Unpopular republican incumbent-Check
2007: Ernie Fletcher 2019: Matt Bevin

Strong GOP primary challenger-Check
2007: Anne Northup 2019: Robert Goforth

Dem challenger is a Beshear who served as the state attorney general-Check
2007: Steve Beshear 2019: Andy Beshear

Is it 2007 all over again?
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Skunk
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2019, 11:07:58 PM »
Major difference, Bevin's gonna win on Tuesday.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2019, 11:14:54 PM »
Bevin may well lose, but certainly not by 17 points, so not quite.

Still, losing by 17 points as an incumbent Republican in Kentucky. I can't imagine how badly Fletcher screwed up for that to happen.
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coolface1572
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2019, 11:22:41 PM »
One more parallel. The gop incumbent changed his Lieutenant governor
2007:Fletcher dropped Steve Pence for Robbie Rudolph

2019: Bevin dropped Jenean Hampton for Ralph Alvarado
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2019, 11:32:55 PM »
Nah, it's 2018 all over again, with the more appropriate parallels being OK-GOV and TN-SEN.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2019, 12:25:51 AM »
Quote from: Xing on November 01, 2019, 11:32:55 PM
Nah, it's 2018 all over again, with the more appropriate parallels being OK-GOV and TN-SEN.

Or 2015 all over again, with the appropriate parallel being KY-Gov!
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2019, 12:30:52 AM »
Its not like KY wasnt super R when it came to statwide races in the 2000s either. Bush won KY by 20 points in 2004, Republicans held more high profile top state wide positions in the mid 2000s in KY then they do now.


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andjey
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2019, 12:47:27 AM »
Yes but Bevin will lose by less than Fletcher
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Pericles
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2019, 02:27:36 AM »
Quote from: Bevinevitable on November 02, 2019, 12:25:51 AM
Quote from: Xing on November 01, 2019, 11:32:55 PM
Nah, it's 2018 all over again, with the more appropriate parallels being OK-GOV and TN-SEN.

Or 2015 all over again, with the appropriate parallel being KY-Gov!

A caveat to those parallels is those were open races while Bevin is an incumbent with a record to run on directly, but I doubt it makes much difference (just this would be an explanation if Bevin underperforms by more than 20 points).
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2019, 06:37:11 AM »
Quote from: Old School Republican on November 02, 2019, 12:30:52 AM
Its not like KY wasnt super R when it came to statwide races in the 2000s either. Bush won KY by 20 points in 2004, Republicans held more high profile top state wide positions in the mid 2000s in KY then they do now.




Kerry lost it by 20 while he lost the PV by 2 ; Clinton lost it by nearly 30 while she won the PV by 2
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2019, 06:37:40 AM »
Quote from: Skunk on November 01, 2019, 11:07:58 PM
Major difference, Bevin's gonna win on Tuesday.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2019, 06:42:53 AM »
Quote from: Xing on November 01, 2019, 11:32:55 PM
Nah, it's 2018 all over again, with the more appropriate parallels being OK-GOV and TN-SEN.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2019, 01:41:00 PM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on November 02, 2019, 06:42:53 AM
Quote from: Xing on November 01, 2019, 11:32:55 PM
Nah, it's 2018 all over again, with the more appropriate parallels being OK-GOV and TN-SEN.
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Spark
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2019, 04:06:09 PM »
I hope not, but it might turn out to be that way.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2019, 04:39:05 PM »
Every 10 years there is a realignment, and the 2020, isnt proving wrong due to the growth of people of color and inequality of wealth, due to automation.  That's why we are getting these results
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2019, 06:32:41 AM »



For it to be 2007, the Democratic Party can't have run off all of people like this.

Perhaps we'll find out this year if they've run ALL of them off.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2019, 09:56:31 PM »
Is it 2015 all over again?
FTFY
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coolface1572
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« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2019, 04:40:46 PM »
Yes. Yes it was.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2019, 03:04:47 AM »

Not really. Beshear senior won his race by 17% and a majority of counties, the junior won by less than 0.5%. Hardly the same. Andy won more total votes, though.
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