IA-NYT/Siena: Tight 4-way-race

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2/3rd of the voters way they could change their preference & are not fully decided, so the field is very fluid. For Sanders, the positive he has the most committed & least likely to change voters as per this poll & he is also 2nd in the 2nd choice voters.

I don't see any silver lining for Biden. It is very likely that his voters are the least energized & most likely to not turn out. He also has a weak ground game. His numbers among young voters are horrendous. If Biden actually finishes 4th in Iowa & 3rd/4th in NH, he will find a very tough race.

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BTW Sanders is beating Warren among 30-44 & 45-55 voters (& losing badly among 65+) but the interesting part is Warren is beating Sanders among 18-29 voters comfortably which is an anomaly vs national trends. So either she is doing much stronger among young voters in Iowa than other states or if the small sample size of young voters in this poll is too friendly for her, then she may well be 1-2-3% behind Sanders overall.

Either way this is a very close & fluid race. Warren also has incredible 2nd choice numbers including among most of Sanders voters.

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Sanders' numbers among young voters are comfortably lower than Warren which is anomaly considering the same poll has Sanders leading among 30-44 & 45-54 age groups where Warren generally leads. There has to be something wrong with the sample either way. If Sanders is leading among 30-54 vs Warren, then he is surely doing a lot better among 18-29 & he is actually leading Warren.

Another thing to consider is Yang-Gabbard voters who are like 5% here & Sanders can get 3-4% from that easily, maybe in some cases votes of Biden & Pete as well.

I don't see Sanders with any risk of dropping below 15%. If anything all polls don't consider the unlikely voter which Sanders is tapping to & under-estimate young voter turnout based on previous turnout levels. That coupled up with the energy of his supporters & huge volunteer & donor base means he will very likely exceed the polls. Just look @ the number of donors of Bernie. It is virtually impossible to fall below 15%.

Another aspect of the polls -

Would you say your mind is made up, or could you still be persuaded to caucus for a different candidate?

% “Mind is made up” by 1st choice candidate:

Sanders: 55%
Biden: 34%
Warren: 26%
Buttigieg: 25%

55% of 19% = 10.45% (Sanders)
34% of 17% = 5.78% (Biden)
26% of 22% = 5.72% (Warren)
25% of 18% - 4.5% (Pete)

There will be considerable movement till Caucus date.