North Carolina 2020 Redistricting (user search)
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  North Carolina 2020 Redistricting (search mode)
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Author Topic: North Carolina 2020 Redistricting  (Read 84693 times)
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,181


« on: September 13, 2021, 07:41:48 PM »

I was able to make a 9-6 Dem Gerrymander. I was trying to do a 10-4 D map by making two Dem seats in the Winston-Salem and Greensboro area, but the margins were way too small to be sustainable for the Dems, so I had to combined that area.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b920bf1a-b50f-420f-8e33-cdf93731c92f



That map is hideous.  Unbelievable that it takes that much effort to do 9-6 D gerrymander in a relatively close state.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,181


« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2021, 09:32:34 PM »

I was able to make a 9-6 Dem Gerrymander. I was trying to do a 10-4 D map by making two Dem seats in the Winston-Salem and Greensboro area, but the margins were way too small to be sustainable for the Dems, so I had to combined that area.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b920bf1a-b50f-420f-8e33-cdf93731c92f



That map is hideous.  Unbelievable that it takes that much effort to do 9-6 D gerrymander in a relatively close state.

It’s because the Democrats are in a few area of the state while the rest lean Republican.

That's the case in most states though.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,181


« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2021, 10:59:45 AM »

Why wouldn't the NC Supreme Court rule before 2022 when they've already heard similar issues in the past and know the subject matter, arguments, law, etc.?  Just because the Chief Justice there is right wing?  That appears to be the only counterpoint I saw in this thread.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,181


« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2021, 01:18:31 PM »



State senate draft

Democrats could try a VRA lawsuit between 1 and 2 for the county splits but I think those clusters were forced by the algorithm. Nothing too crazy besides Wilmington I guess. Fayetteville I guess is weird but honestly just blame the algorithm there.

Seems to be 20 Biden districts in 2020 although the Northern Wake + Granville would be relatively close.

Robeson Scotland and Hoke being together is great for the Lumbee though.


For Democrats to win a majority they need to win the Nash/Franklin/Vance district which is Trump +1, Wilmington district which is like Trump +3,Robeston,Scott, Hoke which is Trump +8 but Clinton +2 the Wilson/Wayne district at Trump +6, and Cabarrus county which is Trump +8 and zooming left



Looks like they turned the Wilmington seat into a Trump 2020 seat.  What are the Presidential numbers on the Moore-Fayetteville seat?  I assume that was another Biden seat that shifted to Trump?  What was the other district that changed from Biden to Trump (I think there were previously 23 Biden seats).

Like Trump +18, Definitely is ugly but it can be defended under the purpose of keeping Fayetteville whole and being forced by county clusters. Currently the 2nd Fayetville district is paired with Hoke county and not Moore.



Now that Wake and Mecklenburg are relatively uniform(The GOP can still win 2 seats out of Wake and 1 seat in South meck) the crazy gerrymandering just isn't there.  Strict County split rules arent always the best(See SD01/SD02) but they did limit gerrymandering .

County splitting rules seem to be the way to go.  Honestly, every state should have a rule that says you can only split 1 county per congressional district and/or you can only split a county once unless it's literally the population of more than 2 districts.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,181


« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2021, 06:25:07 PM »

I remain confused as to why R gerrymanders keep giving Watauga to Cawthorn. Are they that confident in their chances there, or are they ambivalent about Cawthorn's electoral position? It would cost them nothing to make that district likely R rather than Lean R.

Maybe party leaders want to keep it but give him a warning shot that they won't do him any favors if he doesn't cut the bullsh**.
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