North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Ritz]

If NC Rs impeach the court, even after they strike down maps, then we have to wait years before we have control of it again...while also still likely having to contend with GOP control of the legislature. What a tactical mistake this is.

You need a 2/3rds majority to remove a justice. How do you conclude such a ridiculous powerplay would mean Dems waiting years for control? If anything, this would help Dems maintain control through popular backlash.

[Ritz]

If NC Rs impeach the court, even after they strike down maps, then we have to wait years before we have control of it again...while also still likely having to contend with GOP control of the legislature. What a tactical mistake this is.

You need a 2/3rds majority to remove a justice. How do you conclude such a ridiculous powerplay would mean Dems waiting years for control? If anything, this would help Dems maintain control through popular backlash.

Wait, I thought the GOP had the votes to unilaterally impeach the D justices.
This is the first time I'm hearing about a 2/3 requirement.
I'm feeling a bit dumb right now.

Impeachment is a majority vote in the House, but removal from office is a 2/3rds vote in the Senate. It's being floated as a nuclear option for redistricting because accused officials are temporarily suspended from office until the Senate's verdict.

[Ritz]

According to Gerry Cohen, who was the legislature's special counsel up until 2014, the impeachment strategy some Republicans are floating likely isn't legal.

https://www.newsobserver.com/opinion/article257419417.html

[Ritz]

I never want to hear again how the gop has a systemic bias in its favor

NY can have a 22-4 map and get away with it

Oregon can get away with its bs

Illinois can get away with its bs

These rulings always go in one direction. Always.

And yet the national map is a lock to have an overall Republican slant.

It's not really a lock at all.

[Ritz]

I never want to hear again how the gop has a systemic bias in its favor

NY can have a 22-4 map and get away with it

Oregon can get away with its bs

Illinois can get away with its bs

These rulings always go in one direction. Always.

And yet the national map is a lock to have an overall Republican slant.

It's not really a lock at all.

The redistricting experts on Twitter seem to think otherwise, that a 50-50 national House popular vote split in 2022 will almost certainly lead to a Republican controlled House.

Maybe back last year, but the current consensus seems to favor the House having a neutral bias or only a slight one for either party.

[Ritz]

https://twitter.com/EvanPerc_/status/1494327662046691334

Another map was apparently filed this morning. I quite like this one, actually.

It's by the leading Dem on the redistricting committee, Ben Clark.

[Ritz]

I really hate Republicans:

https://twitter.com/stevenmazie/status/1497334606948827138?s=20&t=F2JLfVoQLk...

If the GOP wins this case, does Ohio have to use its previously struck down map as well?

Don't they also risk allowing Dem trifectas to draw CA, CO, and WA? I think this is extremely unlikely, but if SCOTUS overturns all non-legislative drawn maps, Dems in Cali should have no sympathy.

No. A SC ruling like this would only overturn courts from drawing maps, not commissions, because commissions were ruled legislatures by Arizona.

The Arizona ruling didn't say commissions are legislatures. They said, "[r]edistricting is a legislative function to be performed in accordance with the State's prescriptions for lawmaking." What conservatives are arguing is that the state and federal legislature have the sole power to redistrict under the elections clause. If Republicans win this case, it would overturn the Arizona decision and invalidate commissions as well. 

[Ritz]

What I don't understand about their case is what if the governor and legislature just can't agree? Do we not get new maps? Or if so who says what the map is? The most logical answer should be the courts.

In a state like Michigan for instance, without the Michigan Commission, I don't think Whitmer and the state legislature would ever be able to agree on a map in any world and Whitmer would want a map that's fair from a direct partisanship standpoint while the legislature uses geography and VRA to pack Detroit, possibly creating only 4 Biden seats.

They're advocating for a very literal reading of the elections clause so governors would have no say over redistricting either. Only split legislatures like MN and VA would realistically have court-drawn maps.