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Author Topic: North Carolina 2020 Redistricting  (Read 84713 times)
Torie
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« on: October 30, 2021, 04:50:38 PM »
« edited: October 30, 2021, 04:57:57 PM by Torie »

Another potential NC map. This one is labelled CST-13.



There are 10 R seats to 4 D seats.

I think this is a very skillful Pubmander, or at least one in the style I would have drawn. It minimizes county chops and erosity to the extent reasonably possible without materially degrading  efficacy, avoids VRA risk (the Butterfield district is not a Gingles CD, and in fact is a Dem pack CD, sort of, to leave adjacent CD’s Pub safer – sorry Wasserman), and packs Charlotte and the Research Triangle, while neutralizing the Dem nodes of Asheville, Winston-Salam, and Greensboro.


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Torie
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2021, 05:17:08 PM »

Thanks for catching the erratum. Trump 2020 won the far west CD by 7.4%, and the partisan spoils I think in the western part of the state, and indeed statewide, were skillfully divided. The district to the east that goes into the Charlotte burbs was Pubbed up a bit with a pad to anticipate future Pub headwinds there. In other words, the Asheville CD was probably deliberately made a bit marginal to minimize dummymander potential. And thus it took in most of Watauga County that leans Dem (albeit also adding the small heavily Pub county en route) in order to give the CD that runs along the northern border all the way to Greensboro a materially longer Pub half life, and the rest of the Asheville action to protect the CD that runs into the Charlotte maelstrom for the Pubs that in due time will probably flip the state as it segues into the next Atlanta-like metro for the Dems. This assumes of course that the Pubs move along in their current psephological death spiral without a course correction. But that can't happen until Trump is de-fanged, if then.
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Torie
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2021, 05:32:04 PM »

Thanks for catching the erratum. Trump 2020 won the far west CD by 7.4%, and the partisan spoils I think in the western part of the state, and indeed statewide, were skillfully divided. The district to the east that goes into the Charlotte burbs was Pubbed up a bit with a pad to anticipate future Pub headwinds there. In other words, the Asheville CD was probably deliberately made a bit marginal to minimize dummymander potential. And thus it took in most of Watauga County that leans Dem (albeit also adding the small heavily Pub county en route) in order to give the CD that runs along the northern border all the way to Greensboro a materially longer Pub half life, and the rest of the Asheville action to protect the CD that runs into the Charlotte maelstrom for the Pubs that in due time will probably flip the state as it segues into the next Atlanta-like metro for the Dems. This assumes of course that the Pubs move along in their current psephological death spiral without a course correction. But that can't happen until Trump is de-fanged, if then.

That district is made for Speaker Tim Moore. That is why he gets the safest district in the state. I guess Cawthorn is just annoying punk to the party so they don't care about him.

IMO the Greensboro and the Charlotte district could definitely distribute those margins to "shore up" NC11 but they don't really care enough to shore up Cawthorn.

Well that is another interpretation, but I stand by my natterings anyway made without understanding who was doing what to whom among the lean and hungry ones. Maybe Moore's narcissism just happened to serve Pub long term interests best. You sound so bitter and cynical. Of course that emotion set fits the times. Sad.
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Torie
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2021, 06:05:35 PM »

Thanks for catching the erratum. Trump 2020 won the far west CD by 7.4%, and the partisan spoils I think in the western part of the state, and indeed statewide, were skillfully divided. The district to the east that goes into the Charlotte burbs was Pubbed up a bit with a pad to anticipate future Pub headwinds there. In other words, the Asheville CD was probably deliberately made a bit marginal to minimize dummymander potential. And thus it took in most of Watauga County that leans Dem (albeit also adding the small heavily Pub county en route) in order to give the CD that runs along the northern border all the way to Greensboro a materially longer Pub half life, and the rest of the Asheville action to protect the CD that runs into the Charlotte maelstrom for the Pubs that in due time will probably flip the state as it segues into the next Atlanta-like metro for the Dems. This assumes of course that the Pubs move along in their current psephological death spiral without a course correction. But that can't happen until Trump is de-fanged, if then.

That district is made for Speaker Tim Moore. That is why he gets the safest district in the state. I guess Cawthorn is just annoying punk to the party so they don't care about him.

IMO the Greensboro and the Charlotte district could definitely distribute those margins to "shore up" NC11 but they don't really care enough to shore up Cawthorn.

Well that is another interpretation, but I stand by my natterings anyway made without understanding who was doing what to whom among the lean and hungry ones. Maybe Moore's narcissism just happened to serve Pub long term interests best. You sound so bitter and cynical. Of course that emotion set fits the times. Sad.


?

I am just pointing out what happened and how it isn't maximally efficient in the West. It is pretty similar to IL 17th in that it wasn't maxed out.  However it still is very much efficient and compared to IL 17th there seem to be more serious incumbent demands to worry about compared to a young punk.


No problem.
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Torie
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2021, 10:22:56 AM »

I was wondering if NC-02 could be drawn in a way that got if over 50% BCVAP, thus potentially triggering Gingles if deemed compact. The answer is yes, barely, with a lot of contortions. The odds that a federal court deems it compact enough to trigger Gingles is probably fairly low, but if triggered, the issue is then whether a 2% Biden margin CD is deemed a black performing CD. Perhaps, since the black incumbent would have run way ahead of that, but it is a close call. So there is some VRA risk with the Butterfield CD, but if called on it by a court, it can with another chop or two, be made more Dem, so it probably is not an imprudent Pub risk to take.

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Torie
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2021, 12:06:14 PM »

I was wondering if NC-02 could be drawn in a way that got if over 50% BCVAP, thus potentially triggering Gingles if deemed compact. The answer is yes, barely, with a lot of contortions. The odds that a federal court deems it compact enough to trigger Gingles is probably fairly low, but if triggered, the issue is then whether a 2% Biden margin CD is deemed a black performing CD. Perhaps, since the black incumbent would have run way ahead of that, but it is a close call. So there is some VRA risk with the Butterfield CD, but if called on it by a court, it can with another chop or two, be made more Dem, so it probably is not an imprudent Pub risk to take.



Butterfield actually ran behind Biden by 0.1%. He faced a C/B tier candidate just like  Vicente Gonzalez did instead of the regular no namer. A lot of incumbent overperformances are fairly paper thin.

That surprises me, but OK, then the compact issue becomes more salient. The voting must be very racially polarized.
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Torie
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2021, 12:29:44 PM »
« Edited: November 02, 2021, 03:42:11 PM by Torie »

I was wondering if NC-02 could be drawn in a way that got if over 50% BCVAP, thus potentially triggering Gingles if deemed compact. The answer is yes, barely, with a lot of contortions. The odds that a federal court deems it compact enough to trigger Gingles is probably fairly low, but if triggered, the issue is then whether a 2% Biden margin CD is deemed a black performing CD. Perhaps, since the black incumbent would have run way ahead of that, but it is a close call. So there is some VRA risk with the Butterfield CD, but if called on it by a court, it can with another chop or two, be made more Dem, so it probably is not an imprudent Pub risk to take.



Butterfield actually ran behind Biden by 0.1%. He faced a C/B tier candidate just like  Vicente Gonzalez did instead of the regular no namer. A lot of incumbent overperformances are fairly paper thin.

That surprises me, but OK, then the compact issue becomes more salient. The voting must be very racially polarized.


In most of the NE NC counties we are talking about, it is racially polarized to a degree comparable to other parts of the deep south. You have to go into the cities of Greensville, or the much larger ones of Raleigh and Durham for large crossover voting. This is the issue with cutting NC-01 like republicans are attempting: the district is still majority-minority, can be maintained majority minority, and the degree of racial polarization in the region means that a seat 49% White by CVAP is performing - and very strongly. All their proposals make the seat majority white despite the state getting more diverse, so regression then comes into play.

I don't think retrogression is a thing anymore. SCOTUS killed it off. So you are just left with the Gingles trigger, and if triggered (you can draw a 50%+ BCVAP CD that is deemed "compact"), whether a CD is minority performing if less than 50% BCVAP. The odds I think are pretty low that the erose monster that I drew that grabs black inner city hoods in various cities, will be deemed by the current SCOTUS to be "compact." This is particularly true given that the subject CD is not really gerrymandered and the county chops are minimized. If it were gerrymandered to get the black percentage down, a court might be more aggressive in deeming such erosity nevertheless compact.
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Torie
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« Reply #7 on: January 15, 2022, 09:35:56 AM »

So impeach, adjourn the trial, the high court is deadlocked, and thus emasculated. What a country!

This redistricting business is getting out of control. Really.
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Torie
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« Reply #8 on: February 06, 2022, 08:46:36 AM »

The word "fair" should probably be banned from the English language.
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Torie
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« Reply #9 on: February 14, 2022, 03:13:07 PM »


I love it.

1. A court draws the lines because no one but them can parse what natural rights or equal protection means, or to effect proportionality.

2. The court has a personnel change, and it deems the map the prior court drew a gerrymander, and not only ditches the map, but all the laws the gerrymandered legislature passed, so the new regime need not go to all the trouble or repealing the laws one by one.

3. The most important elections in the state are now court elections. That is where the big bucks go, and the voters realizing that who is governor or in the legislature is now bedside the point, because the court is not only writing the laws, but also in effect picking who is in the legislature, don't bother to vote much for those offices. In fact, many are elected to the legislature who run solely to get the 12K a year paycheck, and then never even show up to legislative sessions, because the per diem is not high enough to induce them to show up.
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Torie
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« Reply #10 on: February 17, 2022, 10:44:10 AM »

Is it really too much to ask for this state to be normal in redistricting?

I'm pretty sure they're trolling at this point. Trends look atrocious for the GOP in 13 and 14 and pretty bad in 6 and even 8, so they wouldn't want this map beyond 2022. Probably just aiming for a court drawn map which they can easily redraw in 2022. I do wonder why they didn't do this for the state legislature; maybe they thought restricting the court legislative maps to 2 years might have been unconstitutional.

Is it clear that if the legislature passes a map it does not like under court pressure, it lasts for 10 years, and cannot be changed, but if the court draws the map it only lasts until the legislature can get passed a new map that a court with different justices will uphold?
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Torie
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« Reply #11 on: February 17, 2022, 02:06:19 PM »

Is it really too much to ask for this state to be normal in redistricting?

I'm pretty sure they're trolling at this point. Trends look atrocious for the GOP in 13 and 14 and pretty bad in 6 and even 8, so they wouldn't want this map beyond 2022. Probably just aiming for a court drawn map which they can easily redraw in 2022. I do wonder why they didn't do this for the state legislature; maybe they thought restricting the court legislative maps to 2 years might have been unconstitutional.

Is it clear that if the legislature passes a map it does not like under court pressure, it lasts for 10 years, and cannot be changed, but if the court draws the map it only lasts until the legislature can get passed a new map that a court with different justices will uphold?


I think that's the Republican interpretation.

In all likelihood, these maps are only going to last for this year anyway one way or another (a Republican controlled state supreme court is guaranteed to strike anything down), so it's better to have good maps than ugly NCGA bong smoke maps.

I don't think under the doctrine of res judicata, a court can reverse its opinion on the same case. So if the Pubs take over the court, the legislature would need to pass a new map, and then the court could uphold that map and reverse its prior decision that equal rights to happiness does not mean that maps must be proportional from a partisan standpoint.
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Torie
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« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2022, 08:45:06 AM »

It would be nice to depict the county lines on maps. Absent them, I at least cannot reasonably appraise a map.
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Torie
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« Reply #13 on: October 20, 2022, 10:56:10 AM »

I'm not a North Carolina expert, but this is how I would have cleaned up the court map:





Districts 1, 2, 3, 4, and 7 are unchanged.


What are your metrics for clean-up? For example, in Torie's world, "cleanup" means subject to the VRA, drawing a map using neutral metrics, which means minimizing splits and erosity and respecting metro are lines, and then as a tie breaker between plans that are about equal in merit, going for partisan proportionality.

In the case of NC, it would assume that the state constitution would not have a role here, because the court will have new personnel and reverse itself, or SCOTUS will emasculate it, and that the VRA will be trimmed back to not require maps that fail to hew to the metrics above, leaving only that if a series of maps hewing to neutral metrics can be drawn, then if one or more of them entails a majority minority CD, or perhaps even a performing minority CD, such a map must be selected.

Your map does not entirely hew to the neutral metrics outlined above.
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Torie
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« Reply #14 on: October 20, 2022, 12:30:01 PM »

I'm not a North Carolina expert, but this is how I would have cleaned up the court map:



Districts 1, 2, 3, 4, and 7 are unchanged.


What are your metrics for clean-up? For example, in Torie's world, "cleanup" means subject to the VRA, drawing a map using neutral metrics, which means minimizing splits and erosity and respecting metro are lines, and then as a tie breaker between plans that are about equal in merit, going for partisan proportionality.

In the case of NC, it would assume that the state constitution would not have a role here, because the court will have new personnel and reverse itself, or SCOTUS will emasculate it, and that the VRA will be trimmed back to not require maps that fail to hew to the metrics above, leaving only that if a series of maps hewing to neutral metrics can be drawn, then if one or more of them entails a majority minority CD, or perhaps even a performing minority CD, such a map must be selected.

Your map does not entirely hew to the neutral metrics outlined above.

I at least contest that your metrics are neutral, or at least that they way you measure them is neutral, in effect if not in intent.

The only by-definition neutral metric of redistricting is partisan fairness, which is unfortunately quite vague to be a particularly strong guide. The next-most neutral metric is communities of interest, but what those constitute is itself debatable, and I strongly disagree that counties (or even in some cases municipal boundaries) are an appropriate way to measure them.

Everyone can have different opinions on what metrics to use, and that is fine. My only suggestion was to spell them out, and then I spelled out mine as an example (they are quite close to the Muon2 rules). Defining terms is the first step to having a more productive conversation. So if proportionality is the trump card, just disclose that. I assume that when picking between proportional maps, you would prefer one that is less erose with fewer chops, but perhaps not.
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Torie
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« Reply #15 on: October 20, 2022, 09:42:49 PM »
« Edited: October 21, 2022, 08:39:29 AM by Torie »

Here is a map that follows the Torie rules, which closely resemble the Muon2 rules. I ignored all partisan data when drawing it. The map give the Pubs one extra seat when I checked after the fact, but it should be 7-7 within a couple of election cycles.

I am not trying to persuade anyone of the merits of my approach. That effort would be utterly futile. It is an attempt at description for those that might be interested, and nothing more. This place is not one that is open to persuasion in general. It never has been. And that is OK.

Cheers.



Here is an alternative that avoids a tri-chop of Mecklenburg. I am not which map scores higher. They have their competing virtues and flaws.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d1dd6217-3446-4208-b344-d58281a953f9



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Torie
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« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2022, 08:52:06 AM »

Does "partisan fairness" have the same definition as pornography - you know it when you see it?

At the end of the day, one needs some tangible metrics to work with, that try to minimize subjectivity, that make it much more difficult to reasonably adjudicate matters.

And now we have the poli sci math nerds, who use fancy mathematics, geometry and statistics to try to offer up at least a veneer of objectivity. However, under that particular hood, this particular set of eyes finds an ample supply of smoked up mirrors. They have been running circles around the legal class, and I find that somewhat annoying. Lawyers should always be at the top of the pyramid, not math nerds.  Glasses
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Torie
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« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2022, 10:29:27 AM »
« Edited: October 23, 2022, 10:16:51 AM by Torie »

Yes, Cary in one CD and Raleigh in the other works out very well hewing slavishly to neutral metrics based on governmental subdivisions, without getting into racial percentages at all. That is precisely what my map 2 did.



But then I changed the map again, although not in Wake County.

Obsessive as I am, I kept playing with the NC map, totally ignoring race and partisan numbers, and finally came up with the below after it seemed no more desirable tweaks were in play that would give me pleasure (including. e.g., trying to minimize the population involved with county chops). And then I peeked at the partisan spoils just for fun. This map just happens to be very close to proportional. Trump barely carried NC-13 (the green CD), which is trending Dem at warp speed (Trump 2020 +1.7%, Trump 2016 + 7.5%, which has to be one of the larger swings in the nation). So as of 2024, it may well be a 7-7 map. Hewing to county and city lines may overall help the Pubs, but hewing to MSA’s in general does not, given the current party coalitions. The ying and the yang.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/a8077809-bfa9-496f-857b-ef7cb938f7c2


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Torie
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« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2022, 08:24:19 AM »

What does that map look like if you combine the Winston and Greensboro MSAs for redistricting purposes, Torie?

I ask since it's very much a Bay Area situation where what's functionally one metro area is kept as two due to the Census Bureau being a bit conservative on these things. (This is true of the Triangle too).

Almost nothing, since NC-05 entirely covers the Winston MSA, and then spills into the Greensboro MSA, and NC-06 takes in the balance of the Greensboro MSA. Combining the two MSA's would increase the score of the map without changing it in other words.

The thing about using MSA's, particularly in a state like NC that has so many multi-county MSA's, is that it kind of forces the lines of the map, limiting one's choices, so the subjectivity component is minimized. I tend to pretty slavishly honor them, absent the map getting too erose and looking that way to the eye (aesthetics of a map really matter in the public square), or it avoids a large and ugly county chop in favor of but a micro-chop of a county. That is why I split the Morgantown MSA into halves, with two counties in NC-10, and two counties in NC-08.


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Torie
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« Reply #19 on: October 24, 2022, 02:43:30 PM »

What does that map look like if you combine the Winston and Greensboro MSAs for redistricting purposes, Torie?

I ask since it's very much a Bay Area situation where what's functionally one metro area is kept as two due to the Census Bureau being a bit conservative on these things. (This is true of the Triangle too).

Almost nothing, since NC-05 entirely covers the Winston MSA, and then spills into the Greensboro MSA, and NC-06 takes in the balance of the Greensboro MSA. Combining the two MSA's would increase the score of the map without changing it in other words.

The thing about using MSA's, particularly in a state like NC that has so many multi-county MSA's, is that it kind of forces the lines of the map, limiting one's choices, so the subjectivity component is minimized. I tend to pretty slavishly honor them, absent the map getting too erose and looking that way to the eye (aesthetics of a map really matter in the public square), or it avoids a large and ugly county chop in favor of but a micro-chop of a county. That is why I split the Morgantown MSA into halves, with two counties in NC-10, and two counties in NC-08.




Ah, I was probably being a little circuitous. What I was trying to get at is, what does the map look like if you draw a W-S-Greensboro district?

Yes, indeed, if your question is how much is the map messed up by virtue of creating another safe Dem CD by combining Winston-Salem with Goldsboro. In response to that inquiry, see below.


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Torie
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« Reply #20 on: November 13, 2022, 10:20:15 AM »

If Republicans win supermajorities and flip the court in 2022, could they make it so justices are elected by districts? Gerrymandered court districts fall pretty naturally if you create a Charlotte and Raliegh based seats and let the other 5 seats sort themselves out.



The NC governor has no veto power in NC, so a new map is a done deal.

https://governors.rutgers.edu/governors-and-the-redistricting-process/
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Torie
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« Reply #21 on: November 13, 2022, 10:25:22 AM »

Here's a potential NCGOP unleashed map post a possible SCOTUS VRA overruling.

link



All the R seats should be fairly safe; NC-01 is the most Democratic but is fairly polarized.



The one prong of the VRA that might be left standing is to ban gerrymanders that clearly fail to hew to neutral redistricting metrics that cause a seat to cease to be minority performing. So the Pubs in NC would be wise in a redraw to be able to persuasively defend a NC-01 that is not minority performing as not gerrymandered, even if another reasonable map would make it minority performing.
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Torie
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« Reply #22 on: November 14, 2022, 10:12:11 AM »

Here is a not totally insane but still quite butt ugly Pubmander that I quite loathe, and all it accomplishes over a nice pretty plausible denial Pubmander light map is move one seat from lean Dem to lean Pub.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7168d195-798f-4981-ab5f-11f31e34c904
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Torie
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« Reply #23 on: November 14, 2022, 11:30:38 AM »

Here is a version that makes NC-01 by detaching Greenville from it. The lines however look clean, and it was not a Gingles CD anyway, so it probably survives whatever will be left of the VRA. I think this map is about the best one can do, that does not have dummymander potential.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8e4bfba7-34a0-470a-bd5d-e92cd59eb8c8
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Torie
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« Reply #24 on: November 14, 2022, 02:38:02 PM »
« Edited: November 14, 2022, 03:12:27 PM by Torie »

Maybe you accomplish it by linking Durham to NC-01 for a majority-black seat that is super D and just sinking Chapel Hill? So the eliminated seat is the Durham-Chapel Hill seat instead of the NE black seat.

You can definitely merge NC-04 and NC-01, though the result is as much a successor to the former as to the latter (and questionably legal?). Plurality Black though plurality white on CVAP.



(You can probably make this a little tidier but not a lot tidier without sacrificing BVAP--I drew this for another pretty maximalist R gerry thus the ugly lines)

Here is a version that makes NC-01 by detaching Greenville from it. The lines however look clean, and it was not a Gingles CD anyway, so it probably survives whatever will be left of the VRA. I think this map is about the best one can do, that does not have dummymander potential.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8e4bfba7-34a0-470a-bd5d-e92cd59eb8c8

Again not bad, but I think the Republicans would go a bit uglier to make NC-05, NC-06 NC-08, and NC-14 safer. There's no meaningful check on their capacity to gerrymander save the VRA so you can expect a reversion to post-2010 esque maps in at least the rest of the state outside the Northeast. Perhaps I'm wrong, idk, but that seems like the vibe from how Republicans tend to talk about these issues. Sorry to nitpick.

Torie, in your understanding of the VRA in the scenario you lay out, is there a way for Republicans to either turn NC-01 into either a lean R seat or a dem vote sink legally?

In my map everything is pretty safe except NC-05 (51.5-47 Trump) and NC-06 (52-46 Trump). NC-06 is surrounded by marginal or hostile territory, so not much can be done about that. NC-05 could be made safer, but it would require the CD with surplus Pubs, NC-09, to have a long thin prong going into Winston Salem, and NC-05 then having a prong going the other way, as NC-08 takes in more of Goldsboro. The map would be a mess and a poster child for the Dems. The Pubs would be most unwise to go there. Pigs get fat, and hogs get slaughtered.

Like this:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/aa533672-f562-47cb-a759-2d584d631cc1




The current version of the VRA requires one to draw a "compact" CD that is 50% BVAP.  An ugly chop into Durham is not going to cut it, and certainly will not after Alito writes his opinion in a few months. But an ugly gerrymander that deprives blacks of a performing CD I think is still vulnerable. Thus, when snatching away a black performing CD, one should avoid erosity and unnecessary county chops. My NC-01 will nominate a black in a Dem primary, but in the General the district is swing. But it looks nice, and the county cuts follow municipal lines and are minimized. It should be pretty VRA proof. The surrounding CD's don't have a lot of Pubs to spare anyway.




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