North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

That really just leaves Ohio and Texas as the last two surviving "major" R Gerrymanders left in the country.   (Not saying the NC Map is perfect now or anything)

We'll see how well the Texas one holds up next year though.

Georgia too.

And Michigan

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Butterfield might need Durham back, in some deal or so considering he is only up by 8 points. I think a 9-5 map is probably what happens. NC D's look likely to take a net of -1 in the state supreme court and possibly -2 to a total of 4-3.

Nah, this was just a weird year.  Butterfield will be fine.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Here's a coincidentally proportional that is also made with mostly non partisan intent map that actually plays within the bounds of communities instead of drowning out Randolph and Johnston with mega Democratic areas.

5 Safe D with 1 lean D trending R and 2 Lean/Likely  R trending D with a last likely R not trending anywhere and 6 Safe R.

Best map I have seen all day.

Agreed, from a fairness standpoint.  I think it might be the first one where Cawthorn’s seat isn’t an a R gerrymander.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Someone sent this map in a Discord I'm in, saying it's a leak of the draft NC map for 2022. I have no idea if it's legitimate or not, as they haven't provided a source.

Pretty sure that’d get struck down rather quickly

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is just a f*** you to the NC Supreme Court

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is pointless. The SCONC will flip anyway and republicans will draw another gerrymander mid decade

There’s no downside for us; why not fight it in court and see what we can get?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How can we expect the state supreme court to rule on this?

They’ll probably strike down the congressional maps and appoint a special master at the very least

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This has been a disaster this cycle for the GOP

On the Margin

Midterms have never been determined by redistricting

It hasn't determined which party had a majority, but there is a substantial difference between an R+15-20 majority and an R+30 majority.

This could make it far easier for Democrats to take back the House in 2024.

NC gop will certainly do a mid decade redraw for 2023 unless the court doesn't flip.

I forget if it’s the legislature or Congress, but I think one of those can only be drawn once per decade

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Anyone think that Roe gone could keep the NC high court in Dem hands and cost the GOP with maps for the entire decade? I feel that the court is the easiest Dem victory.

Not impossible