North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[lfromnj]

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article257073892.html

So far only admitted for legislative maps only

https://twitter.com/will_doran/status/1478922075385569282

[lfromnj]

So any chance the congressional map gets overturned or is at least ordered to change 1-2 districts?

I think there's a decent shot that NC-02 (old NC-01) gets remade to be at least likely Dem/VRA-compliant.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if they end up upholding the gerrymander of the Triad, considering the not-so-subtle pressure the NCGA has been applying to the court over the related Voter ID lawsuits and recusal issues therein.

State legislature I suspect will be similar--reconfiguration in the NE and maybe Asheville but little else.

Hope I'm wrong!

The GOP also chopped a Black oppurtunity seat in Goldsboro by the way.

[patzer]

So what is the TLDR for this point in time on the outcome?

The map used in 2020 was pretty damn fair, it's frustrating that it couldn't just have been kept in place, since that *should* satisfy the rationals on both sides.

There's 14 districts in the first place.

Ye a least change map was always going to be tricky since there was no obvious place to put the new district other than “in the triangle”, which means most parts of the state where redistricting is decisive would have to be shifted significantly anyways. Doesn’t excuse the GOP Gerry though.

Here's my try at what a least change map could have looked like. The current 8th gets split equally into a rump 8th and a new 14th, with each of the two taking on more areas in the triangle and the Charlotte area respectively. New 8th is Biden+6 in 2020, new 14th is Trump+18. Every other district avoids any major changes, only really get what they need to keep population equality and that's it.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a292ac55-346b-419c-a21a-3a08569aefe6

[Sol]

That's very good least-change, but Republicans absolutely wouldn't have allowed for there to be a new Democratic district, even if they allowed Butterfield and Manning to stay in office.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Today is closing arguments, not sure when we get verdict though

[ProgressiveModerate]

So what is the TLDR for this point in time on the outcome?

The map used in 2020 was pretty damn fair, it's frustrating that it couldn't just have been kept in place, since that *should* satisfy the rationals on both sides.

There's 14 districts in the first place.

Ye a least change map was always going to be tricky since there was no obvious place to put the new district other than “in the triangle”, which means most parts of the state where redistricting is decisive would have to be shifted significantly anyways. Doesn’t excuse the GOP Gerry though.

Here's my try at what a least change map could have looked like. The current 8th gets split equally into a rump 8th and a new 14th, with each of the two taking on more areas in the triangle and the Charlotte area respectively. New 8th is Biden+6 in 2020, new 14th is Trump+18. Every other district avoids any major changes, only really get what they need to keep population equality and that's it.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a292ac55-346b-419c-a21a-3a08569aefe6

Ye I agree 8 is the best district to split as it’s already overpopulated and connects the 2 fastest growing areas of the state. Good job.

[Sol]

So what is the TLDR for this point in time on the outcome?

The map used in 2020 was pretty damn fair, it's frustrating that it couldn't just have been kept in place, since that *should* satisfy the rationals on both sides.

There's 14 districts in the first place.

Ye a least change map was always going to be tricky since there was no obvious place to put the new district other than “in the triangle”, which means most parts of the state where redistricting is decisive would have to be shifted significantly anyways. Doesn’t excuse the GOP Gerry though.

Here's my try at what a least change map could have looked like. The current 8th gets split equally into a rump 8th and a new 14th, with each of the two taking on more areas in the triangle and the Charlotte area respectively. New 8th is Biden+6 in 2020, new 14th is Trump+18. Every other district avoids any major changes, only really get what they need to keep population equality and that's it.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a292ac55-346b-419c-a21a-3a08569aefe6

Ye I agree 8 is the best district to split as it’s already overpopulated and connects the 2 fastest growing areas of the state. Good job.

FWIW, Fayetteville is not particularly fast growing--it's obviously a bad fit with suburban Charlotte but it's not a great fit with the Triangle either. In a fair map it would serve as the base of its own district.

[Roll Roons]

So what is the TLDR for this point in time on the outcome?

The map used in 2020 was pretty damn fair, it's frustrating that it couldn't just have been kept in place, since that *should* satisfy the rationals on both sides.

There's 14 districts in the first place.

Ye a least change map was always going to be tricky since there was no obvious place to put the new district other than “in the triangle”, which means most parts of the state where redistricting is decisive would have to be shifted significantly anyways. Doesn’t excuse the GOP Gerry though.

Here's my try at what a least change map could have looked like. The current 8th gets split equally into a rump 8th and a new 14th, with each of the two taking on more areas in the triangle and the Charlotte area respectively. New 8th is Biden+6 in 2020, new 14th is Trump+18. Every other district avoids any major changes, only really get what they need to keep population equality and that's it.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a292ac55-346b-419c-a21a-3a08569aefe6

That is a decent map but I feel like county splits can be cleaned up a bit.

[BoiseBoy]

Trial ended today. Verdict is expected by Tuesday January 11.

[lfromnj]

So any chance the congressional map gets overturned or is at least ordered to change 1-2 districts?

I think there's a decent shot that NC-02 (old NC-01) gets remade to be at least likely Dem/VRA-compliant.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if they end up upholding the gerrymander of the Triad, considering the not-so-subtle pressure the NCGA has been applying to the court over the related Voter ID lawsuits and recusal issues therein.

State legislature I suspect will be similar--reconfiguration in the NE and maybe Asheville but little else.

Hope I'm wrong!

One thing to consider is a compromise.  

The Plaintiffs want a Lean to Likely D seat that doesn't take in Winston Salem interestingly. They claim they want competitve maps so what about replacing that medium red part of Forsyth with either part of Rockingham or Davidson which therefore makes the district more competitive?


I actually thought the NC GOP would do it in 2019 to give Mark Walker a chance but their position there was much weaker. It looked like NC would be a tossup statewide and the court was more D. Now heading into 2022 NC looks Likely R and the court is much more narrow.

[lfromnj]

https://www.carolinajournal.com/news-article/legislators-seek-justice-ervins-recusal-in-redistricting-case/

NC GOP begins push

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://www.carolinajournal.com/news-article/legislators-seek-justice-ervins-recusal-in-redistricting-case/

NC GOP begins push

Lol that's such a silly argument by the NCGOP. Couldn't really any case you can argue have an impact on voter turnout and such?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So any chance the congressional map gets overturned or is at least ordered to change 1-2 districts?

I think there's a decent shot that NC-02 (old NC-01) gets remade to be at least likely Dem/VRA-compliant.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if they end up upholding the gerrymander of the Triad, considering the not-so-subtle pressure the NCGA has been applying to the court over the related Voter ID lawsuits and recusal issues therein.

State legislature I suspect will be similar--reconfiguration in the NE and maybe Asheville but little else.

Hope I'm wrong!

One thing to consider is a compromise.  

The Plaintiffs want a Lean to Likely D seat that doesn't take in Winston Salem interestingly. They claim they want competitve maps so what about replacing that medium red part of Forsyth with either part of Rockingham or Davidson which therefore makes the district more competitive?


I actually thought the NC GOP would do it in 2019 to give Mark Walker a chance but their position there was much weaker. It looked like NC would be a tossup statewide and the court was more D. Now heading into 2022 NC looks Likely R and the court is much more narrow.

Idea for a competitivemander to pair with this sort of seat: Winston-Salem and Carrabus in the same district?

[lfromnj]

So any chance the congressional map gets overturned or is at least ordered to change 1-2 districts?

I think there's a decent shot that NC-02 (old NC-01) gets remade to be at least likely Dem/VRA-compliant.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if they end up upholding the gerrymander of the Triad, considering the not-so-subtle pressure the NCGA has been applying to the court over the related Voter ID lawsuits and recusal issues therein.

State legislature I suspect will be similar--reconfiguration in the NE and maybe Asheville but little else.

Hope I'm wrong!

One thing to consider is a compromise.  

The Plaintiffs want a Lean to Likely D seat that doesn't take in Winston Salem interestingly. They claim they want competitve maps so what about replacing that medium red part of Forsyth with either part of Rockingham or Davidson which therefore makes the district more competitive?


I actually thought the NC GOP would do it in 2019 to give Mark Walker a chance but their position there was much weaker. It looked like NC would be a tossup statewide and the court was more D. Now heading into 2022 NC looks Likely R and the court is much more narrow.

Idea for a competitivemander to pair with this sort of seat: Winston-Salem and Carrabus in the same district?

Winston Salem is pretty hard to get into a D leaning district or even swingy. To get through Cabarrus means going through some deeper red areas although yes it is possible.





Anyway here's a map I made based on this earlier Greensboro district that could theoretically happen. Changes involve Sandhills district, Keeping Guilford whole, and swapping Franklin with Lenoir to boost black VAP in NE seat.  In a year where NC is close- it would be 3 Safe D, 1 lean D(black belt), 2  pure tossups , 2 Likely R(Western seat and Charlotte suburban) and 6 Safe R.

It does require Dan Bishop to take the Sandhills district . I think he was the only Republican to match Trumps Robeson county margin. It still goes R in 2022 with a generic R but Charles Graham would be a tough opponent here as he would reduce the R margin in Robeson.

[Sol]

Made a pass at a similar map, also designed to force Madison Cawthorn west and allow Tim Moore to get the district he always wanted. Intended to be a "fair" map but actually quite calibrated for the GOP, and probably impossible to overrule before the 2022 midterms.

Does require Bishop or Hudson to leave, more likely Hudson than Bishop.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So any chance the congressional map gets overturned or is at least ordered to change 1-2 districts?

I think there's a decent shot that NC-02 (old NC-01) gets remade to be at least likely Dem/VRA-compliant.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if they end up upholding the gerrymander of the Triad, considering the not-so-subtle pressure the NCGA has been applying to the court over the related Voter ID lawsuits and recusal issues therein.

State legislature I suspect will be similar--reconfiguration in the NE and maybe Asheville but little else.

Hope I'm wrong!

One thing to consider is a compromise.  

The Plaintiffs want a Lean to Likely D seat that doesn't take in Winston Salem interestingly. They claim they want competitve maps so what about replacing that medium red part of Forsyth with either part of Rockingham or Davidson which therefore makes the district more competitive?


I actually thought the NC GOP would do it in 2019 to give Mark Walker a chance but their position there was much weaker. It looked like NC would be a tossup statewide and the court was more D. Now heading into 2022 NC looks Likely R and the court is much more narrow.

Idea for a competitivemander to pair with this sort of seat: Winston-Salem and Carrabus in the same district?

Winston Salem is pretty hard to get into a D leaning district or even swingy. To get through Cabarrus means going through some deeper red areas although yes it is possible.





Anyway here's a map I made based on this earlier Greensboro district that could theoretically happen. Changes involve Sandhills district, Keeping Guilford whole, and swapping Franklin with Lenoir to boost black VAP in NE seat.  In a year where NC is close- it would be 3 Safe D, 1 lean D(black belt), 2  pure tossups , 2 Likely R(Western seat and Charlotte suburban) and 6 Safe R.

It does require Dan Bishop to take the Sandhills district . I think he was the only Republican to match Trumps Robeson county margin. It still goes R in 2022 with a generic R but Charles Graham would be a tough opponent here as he would reduce the R margin in Robeson.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f61276d0-731c-4efe-974a-1ab8e1fdad5b
Drew a competitivemander. I got a Trump+4 Winston-Salem CD.
Not really realistic since it changes so many things across the state though.

[lfromnj]

By the way does anyone have the county clusters for the 2010 cycle for the legislative maps? I just want to see how likely it was the GOP would have had their 3/5 supermajorities anyway in 2016-2017

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

By the way does anyone have the county clusters for the 2010 cycle for the legislative maps? I just want to see how likely it was the GOP would have had their 3/5 supermajorities anyway in 2016-2017

Wouldn't you be able to do this manually by looking at the number of districts nested in certain sets of counties?

[lfromnj]

By the way does anyone have the county clusters for the 2010 cycle for the legislative maps? I just want to see how likely it was the GOP would have had their 3/5 supermajorities anyway in 2016-2017

Wouldn't you be able to do this manually by looking at the number of districts nested in certain sets of counties?

Just wondering if there were any other cluster options. An interesting thing is the map used in 2016 had 31 Trump districts but 35 R senators yet 76 Trump districts in the house and 74 R house members.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

By the way does anyone have the county clusters for the 2010 cycle for the legislative maps? I just want to see how likely it was the GOP would have had their 3/5 supermajorities anyway in 2016-2017

Wouldn't you be able to do this manually by looking at the number of districts nested in certain sets of counties?

Just wondering if there were any other cluster options. An interesting thing is the map used in 2016 had 31 Trump districts but 35 R senators yet 76 Trump districts in the house and 74 R house members.

Aaaah. I see.
If I knew more about this I'll tell, but the best I can do is point out Atlas threads from the 2010s round of redistricting I guess.

[Vern]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::b27d87e4-1fa1-4a9d-aaeb-70b7795a5a14


This is a map I came up with trying to keep the metro areas together. It ended up being 7-6 map. 14 and 6 are your battleground districts. 

[Vern]

So today we find out what the courts have to say right?

[lfromnj]

One major factor that has changed between 2011 and 2021 for legislative districts is its much harder to carve out extra GOP legislative seats in Wake and Mecklenburg. In the state senate you can get 2 swing seats from Wake and a Biden +7 in Mecklenburg. All these seats are drawn in R friendly manners but overall they are fairly reasonable . In 2011 you could draw nearly 3 winnable R Meck seats IIRC.
Democrats want all of the Wake and Mecklenburg seats to be safe D in their lawsuits. In either scenario all the seats would clearly be part of a Dem majority coalitian so in the end it doesn't matter that much. It does matter for R supmajorities to some degree.

[Oryxslayer]

So today we find out what the courts have to say right?

Yes, but no matter what happens it could get appealed up the the NC supremes. Certainly if the ruling is unfavorable to Dems, perhaps also if it's unfavorable to the GOP and the leg is willing screw with the justices.

[lfromnj]

Anyone know how the vote went? How did the dem vote ?

Also plaintiffs clearly need to make sd01 and sd02 a bit more about racial stuff. Although the NE black CD is not maximally black it still keeps most of the black community in NE NC together. Sd01 and sd02 are way more egregious in it just flat out splits the black community