North Carolina 2020 Redistricting
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October 27, 2021, 08:58:45 PM

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Author Topic: North Carolina 2020 Redistricting  (Read 21594 times)
Chap Petersen Democrat
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« Reply #575 on: October 08, 2021, 12:19:32 PM »

Weirdly NC democrats have been fairly quiet about what is happening. So far the only guy who I see has said anything is the Cumberland state senator.
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ERM64man
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« Reply #576 on: October 12, 2021, 03:51:00 PM »

Don't Democrats still have a 4-3 majority on SCONC?
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Stuart98
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« Reply #577 on: October 12, 2021, 11:45:29 PM »

Weirdly NC democrats have been fairly quiet about what is happening. So far the only guy who I see has said anything is the Cumberland state senator.
Sooner the gerrymander passes, the sooner they can expeditiously get it sent to the supreme court to be thrown out before it's too late?
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Devils30
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« Reply #578 on: October 14, 2021, 12:29:08 AM »

10-4 attempt makes some sense for the GOP, 9-5 should be ok with the courts. Not sure why they keep mentioning 11-3, that probably has serious dummymander risk come 2026.
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Vern
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« Reply #579 on: October 14, 2021, 07:02:38 AM »

I believe we should see the final maps come out this week or next week. I read that they want to get the maps done by the end of Oct or beginning of Nov.
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Chap Petersen Democrat
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« Reply #580 on: October 14, 2021, 12:21:26 PM »
« Edited: October 14, 2021, 12:34:07 PM by lfromnj »



State senate draft

Democrats could try a VRA lawsuit between 1 and 2 for the county splits but I think those clusters were forced by the algorithm. Nothing too crazy besides Wilmington I guess. Fayetteville I guess is weird but honestly just blame the algorithm there.

Seems to be 20 Biden districts in 2020 although the Northern Wake + Granville would be relatively close.

Robeson Scotland and Hoke being together is great for the Lumbee though.


For Democrats to win a majority they need to win the Nash/Franklin/Vance district which is Trump +1, Wilmington district which is like Trump +3,Robeston,Scott, Hoke which is Trump +8 but Clinton +2 the Wilson/Wayne district at Trump +6, and Cabarrus county which is Trump +8 and zooming left

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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #581 on: October 14, 2021, 12:52:03 PM »



State senate draft

Democrats could try a VRA lawsuit between 1 and 2 for the county splits but I think those clusters were forced by the algorithm. Nothing too crazy besides Wilmington I guess. Fayetteville I guess is weird but honestly just blame the algorithm there.

Seems to be 20 Biden districts in 2020 although the Northern Wake + Granville would be relatively close.

Robeson Scotland and Hoke being together is great for the Lumbee though.


For Democrats to win a majority they need to win the Nash/Franklin/Vance district which is Trump +1, Wilmington district which is like Trump +3,Robeston,Scott, Hoke which is Trump +8 but Clinton +2 the Wilson/Wayne district at Trump +6, and Cabarrus county which is Trump +8 and zooming left



Looks like they turned the Wilmington seat into a Trump 2020 seat.  What are the Presidential numbers on the Moore-Fayetteville seat?  I assume that was another Biden seat that shifted to Trump?  What was the other district that changed from Biden to Trump (I think there were previously 23 Biden seats).
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Chap Petersen Democrat
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« Reply #582 on: October 14, 2021, 12:57:07 PM »
« Edited: October 14, 2021, 01:15:23 PM by lfromnj »



State senate draft

Democrats could try a VRA lawsuit between 1 and 2 for the county splits but I think those clusters were forced by the algorithm. Nothing too crazy besides Wilmington I guess. Fayetteville I guess is weird but honestly just blame the algorithm there.

Seems to be 20 Biden districts in 2020 although the Northern Wake + Granville would be relatively close.

Robeson Scotland and Hoke being together is great for the Lumbee though.


For Democrats to win a majority they need to win the Nash/Franklin/Vance district which is Trump +1, Wilmington district which is like Trump +3,Robeston,Scott, Hoke which is Trump +8 but Clinton +2 the Wilson/Wayne district at Trump +6, and Cabarrus county which is Trump +8 and zooming left



Looks like they turned the Wilmington seat into a Trump 2020 seat.  What are the Presidential numbers on the Moore-Fayetteville seat?  I assume that was another Biden seat that shifted to Trump?  What was the other district that changed from Biden to Trump (I think there were previously 23 Biden seats).

Like Trump +18, Definitely is ugly but it can be defended under the purpose of keeping Fayetteville whole and being forced by county clusters. Currently the 2nd Fayetville district is paired with Hoke county and not Moore.



Now that Wake and Mecklenburg are relatively uniform(The GOP can still win 2 seats out of Wake and 1 seat in South meck) the crazy gerrymandering just isn't there.  Strict County split rules arent always the best(See SD01/SD02) but they did limit gerrymandering .
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #583 on: October 14, 2021, 01:18:31 PM »



State senate draft

Democrats could try a VRA lawsuit between 1 and 2 for the county splits but I think those clusters were forced by the algorithm. Nothing too crazy besides Wilmington I guess. Fayetteville I guess is weird but honestly just blame the algorithm there.

Seems to be 20 Biden districts in 2020 although the Northern Wake + Granville would be relatively close.

Robeson Scotland and Hoke being together is great for the Lumbee though.


For Democrats to win a majority they need to win the Nash/Franklin/Vance district which is Trump +1, Wilmington district which is like Trump +3,Robeston,Scott, Hoke which is Trump +8 but Clinton +2 the Wilson/Wayne district at Trump +6, and Cabarrus county which is Trump +8 and zooming left



Looks like they turned the Wilmington seat into a Trump 2020 seat.  What are the Presidential numbers on the Moore-Fayetteville seat?  I assume that was another Biden seat that shifted to Trump?  What was the other district that changed from Biden to Trump (I think there were previously 23 Biden seats).

Like Trump +18, Definitely is ugly but it can be defended under the purpose of keeping Fayetteville whole and being forced by county clusters. Currently the 2nd Fayetville district is paired with Hoke county and not Moore.



Now that Wake and Mecklenburg are relatively uniform(The GOP can still win 2 seats out of Wake and 1 seat in South meck) the crazy gerrymandering just isn't there.  Strict County split rules arent always the best(See SD01/SD02) but they did limit gerrymandering .

County splitting rules seem to be the way to go.  Honestly, every state should have a rule that says you can only split 1 county per congressional district and/or you can only split a county once unless it's literally the population of more than 2 districts.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #584 on: October 14, 2021, 01:36:05 PM »



State senate draft

Democrats could try a VRA lawsuit between 1 and 2 for the county splits but I think those clusters were forced by the algorithm. Nothing too crazy besides Wilmington I guess. Fayetteville I guess is weird but honestly just blame the algorithm there.

Seems to be 20 Biden districts in 2020 although the Northern Wake + Granville would be relatively close.

Robeson Scotland and Hoke being together is great for the Lumbee though.


For Democrats to win a majority they need to win the Nash/Franklin/Vance district which is Trump +1, Wilmington district which is like Trump +3,Robeston,Scott, Hoke which is Trump +8 but Clinton +2 the Wilson/Wayne district at Trump +6, and Cabarrus county which is Trump +8 and zooming left



Looks like they turned the Wilmington seat into a Trump 2020 seat.  What are the Presidential numbers on the Moore-Fayetteville seat?  I assume that was another Biden seat that shifted to Trump?  What was the other district that changed from Biden to Trump (I think there were previously 23 Biden seats).

Like Trump +18, Definitely is ugly but it can be defended under the purpose of keeping Fayetteville whole and being forced by county clusters. Currently the 2nd Fayetville district is paired with Hoke county and not Moore.



Now that Wake and Mecklenburg are relatively uniform(The GOP can still win 2 seats out of Wake and 1 seat in South meck) the crazy gerrymandering just isn't there.  Strict County split rules arent always the best(See SD01/SD02) but they did limit gerrymandering .

What are the 2020 numbers for the south Meck district and the two Wake districts you are referring to?
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Chap Petersen Democrat
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« Reply #585 on: October 14, 2021, 01:39:28 PM »



State senate draft

Democrats could try a VRA lawsuit between 1 and 2 for the county splits but I think those clusters were forced by the algorithm. Nothing too crazy besides Wilmington I guess. Fayetteville I guess is weird but honestly just blame the algorithm there.

Seems to be 20 Biden districts in 2020 although the Northern Wake + Granville would be relatively close.

Robeson Scotland and Hoke being together is great for the Lumbee though.


For Democrats to win a majority they need to win the Nash/Franklin/Vance district which is Trump +1, Wilmington district which is like Trump +3,Robeston,Scott, Hoke which is Trump +8 but Clinton +2 the Wilson/Wayne district at Trump +6, and Cabarrus county which is Trump +8 and zooming left



Looks like they turned the Wilmington seat into a Trump 2020 seat.  What are the Presidential numbers on the Moore-Fayetteville seat?  I assume that was another Biden seat that shifted to Trump?  What was the other district that changed from Biden to Trump (I think there were previously 23 Biden seats).

Like Trump +18, Definitely is ugly but it can be defended under the purpose of keeping Fayetteville whole and being forced by county clusters. Currently the 2nd Fayetville district is paired with Hoke county and not Moore.



Now that Wake and Mecklenburg are relatively uniform(The GOP can still win 2 seats out of Wake and 1 seat in South meck) the crazy gerrymandering just isn't there.  Strict County split rules arent always the best(See SD01/SD02) but they did limit gerrymandering .

What are the 2020 numbers for the south Meck district and the two Wake districts you are referring to?

South meck is around Biden +6, South wake is like Biden +3, North Wake is like Biden +0  IIRC. All 3 should still be winnable downballot for now
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Seeking Isian Mystery Initiation
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« Reply #586 on: October 14, 2021, 01:41:36 PM »



State senate draft

Democrats could try a VRA lawsuit between 1 and 2 for the county splits but I think those clusters were forced by the algorithm. Nothing too crazy besides Wilmington I guess. Fayetteville I guess is weird but honestly just blame the algorithm there.

In addition to the VRA violation, the 2nd lacks road contiguity. Hyde and Pamlico Counties are not connected (nor are Hyde and Carteret).
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Chap Petersen Democrat
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« Reply #587 on: October 14, 2021, 01:42:21 PM »



State senate draft

Democrats could try a VRA lawsuit between 1 and 2 for the county splits but I think those clusters were forced by the algorithm. Nothing too crazy besides Wilmington I guess. Fayetteville I guess is weird but honestly just blame the algorithm there.

In addition to the VRA violation, the 2nd lacks road contiguity. Hyde and Pamlico Counties are not connected.

Iirc they have a ferry connection. Don't get me wrong it is an absurd district but I think the GOP just got lucky in this area regarding county clusters.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #588 on: October 14, 2021, 01:54:42 PM »

It also looks like they made it so only one black Democrat can win a seat in the rural east.
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Chap Petersen Democrat
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« Reply #589 on: October 14, 2021, 01:57:38 PM »

It also looks like they made it so only one black Democrat can win a seat in the rural east.
County cluster algorithm. I don't know how many options there were. Dems can still sue under VRA of course and ask Federal courts to provide a county split option.
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Sol
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« Reply #590 on: October 14, 2021, 02:03:15 PM »



State senate draft

Democrats could try a VRA lawsuit between 1 and 2 for the county splits but I think those clusters were forced by the algorithm. Nothing too crazy besides Wilmington I guess. Fayetteville I guess is weird but honestly just blame the algorithm there.

In addition to the VRA violation, the 2nd lacks road contiguity. Hyde and Pamlico Counties are not connected.

Iirc they have a ferry connection. Don't get me wrong it is an absurd district but I think the GOP just got lucky in this area regarding county clusters.

That's true, though Pamlico doesn't actually have a connection to Carteret, and the connection between Carteret and Hyde is only to Ocracoke.
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Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #591 on: October 14, 2021, 02:04:56 PM »

Ds are hard-pressed to win a majority in the NC Senate if this map holds.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #592 on: October 14, 2021, 02:05:43 PM »

Ds are hard-pressed to win a majority in the NC Senate if this map holds.

They are hard pressed to win it in any map that isnít a Dem gerrymander to be honest.
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Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #593 on: October 14, 2021, 02:09:00 PM »

Ds are hard-pressed to win a majority in the NC Senate if this map holds.

They are hard pressed to win it in any map that isnít a Dem gerrymander to be honest.
Not sure if I'd be that categorical, but it's incredibly painful for NC Dems to lose rural seats out east, it means they have to run up the score in suburban areas and D trending areas elsewhere.
Hard ask.
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Chap Petersen Democrat
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« Reply #594 on: October 14, 2021, 02:14:48 PM »
« Edited: October 14, 2021, 02:17:57 PM by lfromnj »



State senate draft

Democrats could try a VRA lawsuit between 1 and 2 for the county splits but I think those clusters were forced by the algorithm. Nothing too crazy besides Wilmington I guess. Fayetteville I guess is weird but honestly just blame the algorithm there.

Seems to be 20 Biden districts in 2020 although the Northern Wake + Granville would be relatively close.

Robeson Scotland and Hoke being together is great for the Lumbee though.


For Democrats to win a majority they need to win the Nash/Franklin/Vance district which is Trump +1, Wilmington district which is like Trump +3,Robeston,Scott, Hoke which is Trump +8 but Clinton +2 the Wilson/Wayne district at Trump +6, and Cabarrus county which is Trump +8 and zooming left



Looks like they turned the Wilmington seat into a Trump 2020 seat.  What are the Presidential numbers on the Moore-Fayetteville seat?  I assume that was another Biden seat that shifted to Trump?  What was the other district that changed from Biden to Trump (I think there were previously 23 Biden seats).

Like Trump +18, Definitely is ugly but it can be defended under the purpose of keeping Fayetteville whole and being forced by county clusters. Currently the 2nd Fayetville district is paired with Hoke county and not Moore.



Now that Wake and Mecklenburg are relatively uniform(The GOP can still win 2 seats out of Wake and 1 seat in South meck) the crazy gerrymandering just isn't there.  Strict County split rules arent always the best(See SD01/SD02) but they did limit gerrymandering .

County splitting rules seem to be the way to go.  Honestly, every state should have a rule that says you can only split 1 county per congressional district and/or you can only split a county once unless it's literally the population of more than 2 districts.

New England counties basically don't exist. Although to be fair outside of South East MA they work fairly well for CD's. It does get ugly down there. CT is amazing. One East seat. Then one seat each for the 3 big counties and one leftover seat in the NW that is currently slightly gerrymandered as a leftover .
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Sol
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« Reply #595 on: October 14, 2021, 02:27:13 PM »

The thing about the county cluster rule is that it basically acts as an insurance policy, preventing each party from getting thrown out by an overpowered gerrymander.

My big issue with it tbh is that the clusters often don't make any sense with reference to geography (as seen in the above discussion) or communities--you get jokes like Moore+Cumberland.
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Chap Petersen Democrat
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« Reply #596 on: October 14, 2021, 02:39:10 PM »

The thing about the county cluster rule is that it basically acts as an insurance policy, preventing each party from getting thrown out by an overpowered gerrymander.

My big issue with it tbh is that the clusters often don't make any sense with reference to geography (as seen in the above discussion) or communities--you get jokes like Moore+Cumberland.

Yeah state senate is pretty much restricted in what the GOP can do. The only real gerrymandering is in Wilmington. They may have cherry picked a few precincts in Mecklenburg and Wake as well I guess but nothing crazy. I guess Democrats could wish that the Guilford and Cumberland R districts are more compact and also more D but the seats there aren't anything crazy.Statehouse has a lot more freedom for gerrymandering as there are multiple county cluster options. Along with that you can carve out more pockets.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #597 on: October 14, 2021, 02:42:40 PM »

I remain confused as to why R gerrymanders keep giving Watauga to Cawthorn. Are they that confident in their chances there, or are they ambivalent about Cawthorn's electoral position? It would cost them nothing to make that district likely R rather than Lean R.
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Chap Petersen Democrat
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« Reply #598 on: October 14, 2021, 02:43:13 PM »

I remain confused as to why R gerrymanders keep giving Watauga to Cawthorn. Are they that confident in their chances there, or are they ambivalent about Cawthorn's electoral position? It would cost them nothing to make that district likely R rather than Lean R.

Not sure, Some of it could be that they are working without partisan data and don't remember exact details. Maybe Tim Moore has certain demands?
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Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #599 on: October 14, 2021, 02:45:43 PM »

I remain confused as to why R gerrymanders keep giving Watauga to Cawthorn. Are they that confident in their chances there, or are they ambivalent about Cawthorn's electoral position? It would cost them nothing to make that district likely R rather than Lean R.

Not sure, Some of it could be that they are working without partisan data and don't remember exact details. Maybe Tim Moore has certain demands?
It could be because Watauga has to be kept out of the CD that also has Wilkes?
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