North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Non Swing Voter]

Why wouldn't the NC Supreme Court rule before 2022 when they've already heard similar issues in the past and know the subject matter, arguments, law, etc.?  Just because the Chief Justice there is right wing?  That appears to be the only counterpoint I saw in this thread.

[BoiseBoy]

Here's another ghastly map that was worked on earlier today.

[Stuart98]

Here's another ghastly map that was worked on earlier today.

This map is a troll, they're not doing a stupid four way Mecklenburg crack that doesn't even eliminate the Biden seat.

[It’s so Joever]

Here's another ghastly map that was worked on earlier today.

I vote for this one.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's another ghastly map that was worked on earlier today.

Ye that gotta be a joke 13 prolly voted to Biden and it’s pretty much impossible for the GOP to crack Mecklenburg to not have a D seat unless they gonna cede NC-6 but NC-12 is prolly the better trade for them.

[BoiseBoy]

Sen. Hise is altering the map to try and zero out the numbers:

https://twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1446145836384198659?s=20

[lfromnj]

I mean this has to be trolling right? Yesterday's map seemed plausible but this one is just lol.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

And people called me crazy when I suggested TXGOP might just through the VRA out the window…

[Sol]

If Republicans are really wanting to do elaborate gerrymanders, why not something like this?

[S019]

So, the Youtube video containing Daniel's gerrymander from yesterday is indeed back, this makes me think, they upload the videos, the day after the session: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ATyQFLvtoU, so after some looking, the streams are on the General Assembly's Channel, but then they get deleted and/or privatized and the recordings are on the redistricting channel.

Also I'll note that the NC GOP's software does not give them partisan information or racial information, I highly doubt they'll get away with cracking one of NC-01/NC-12, but it seems like they could try to crack both, I wouldn't rule it out, though it'd lead to an immediate lawsuit, which is why I'd be surprised if they went this way, it's very possible that they're just seeing what the max is, that they can do.

If Republicans are really wanting to do elaborate gerrymanders, why not something like this?

This is a pretty ingenious gerrymander and also has the advantage of making NC-01 into a true black seat, which greatly weakens the legal case for racial gerrymandering. There would still be a partisan gerrymandering suit which would likely go in the Democrats' favor if it got there before November 2022, which it likely would.

[Biden his time]

Why does the city of Charlotte have such a small Black population for other Southern cities its size?

Is it really closer to an Upper South city such as Nashville?

[lfromnj]

Why does the city of Charlotte have such a small Black population for other Southern cities its size?

Is it really closer to an Upper South city such as Nashville?

A bit of it not being fully deep southern city, one could say, although it also is just the fact the city is basically the entire county

[Sol]

Yeah Charlotte is on the hilly western edge of the Piedmont--it's more like Spartanburg or Greenville in terms of location (though it's significantly larger).

That said, it's more Black than other major metro areas in the country, including St. Louis, Houston, or Dallas, and it has an extremely fast growing Black community (over 38% growth between 2010 and 2020!). It has a reputation a bit like Atlanta within the Black community from what I understand.

It's also worth noting that Charlotte has a large Black suburban section like other Southern cities--only in the city limits.  

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tried my hand at a relatively clean 11-3 NC gerry. Absolutely no way the gop goes 12-2 as it would be horrendous, illegal, and probably very weak and in net less effective than an 11-3 would be.

[Mr.Phips]

Looks like Democrats are going to pay again for stupidly not passing an independent redistricting commission here in early 2010 when polls showed them losing their legislative majorities.

[kwabbit]

Is it just me, or is there not very much difference between a fair maps and gerrymanders in NC? I feel like a fair map would likely be 9 R 5 D and I'm having trouble drawing a reasonable R gerrymander that's 10 R 4 D even.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is it just me, or is there not very much difference between a fair maps and gerrymanders in NC? I feel like a fair map would likely be 9 R 5 D and I'm having trouble drawing a reasonable R gerrymander that's 10 R 4 D even.

The map I posted above is proof that it's likelier that a fair map would have 6 D seats as opposed to 5.

[kwabbit]

Is it just me, or is there not very much difference between a fair maps and gerrymanders in NC? I feel like a fair map would likely be 9 R 5 D and I'm having trouble drawing a reasonable R gerrymander that's 10 R 4 D even.

The map I posted above is proof that it's likelier that a fair map would have 6 D seats as opposed to 5.

I see what you did now. I had a previously drawn map that I legitimately couldn't tell if I drew it fair or a light R gerry. I don't know if this is an NC no no but I repeatedly draw a tendril into Wake for NC-01 to pick up the Black voters there, likely diluting Wake and preventing it from supporting 3 dem seats.

[Tintrlvr]

I made an NC map that could function as both a fair-proportional and a fair-non-partisan map.
1, 4, 6, 12, and 13 are the Democratic districts, while 2, 3, 5, 8, 10, and 11 are the Republican ones. 7, 9, and 14 are swingy; 7 is trending R but still is quite winnable for Dems, 9 is lean GOP but increasingly winnable for Dems, and 14 is trending D and soon might count as a full-blown Dem district.
7 is a new majority-minority district. 2 is anchored in coastal counties such as Onslow and New Hanover, while 3 is a "leftovers seat". 9 is a dedicated suburban seat. 10, 8, and 14 mix suburban and rural.
Trump won 8 of these seats, Cooper also won 8, and Burr won 7.
DRA link

Overall a good map, but I have a few thoughts:

1. Rather than going into Gaston, I think 9 would be more natural going into Cabarrus - this would also mean it doesn't cross across Mecklenburg
2. Personal preference is to split both Guilford and Forsyth so you can keep more of the urban/suburban areas together. Alternative is to put High Point in the central NC district. Both I think are better than splitting Winston-Salem from its inner suburbs.
3. While the whole counties are nice, I actually think the Asheville-to-Watauga connection is better for 11. The reason actually has to do with 10, which awkwardly splits a bunch of smaller metros right now. Together with pulling 9 out of Gaston, I think you could do much neater versions of 5 and 10 with those changes.

The eastern part of the state is particularly nice. Wouldn't change anything there, except I might consider trying to pull the exurban areas of Franklin and maybe Nash into a Raleigh-area seat to help bolster 1's black percentage and send 1 into Wayne or Lenoir.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I made an NC map that could function as both a fair-proportional and a fair-non-partisan map.
1, 4, 6, 12, and 13 are the Democratic districts, while 2, 3, 5, 8, 10, and 11 are the Republican ones. 7, 9, and 14 are swingy; 7 is trending R but still is quite winnable for Dems, 9 is lean GOP but increasingly winnable for Dems, and 14 is trending D and soon might count as a full-blown Dem district.
7 is a new majority-minority district. 2 is anchored in coastal counties such as Onslow and New Hanover, while 3 is a "leftovers seat". 9 is a dedicated suburban seat. 10, 8, and 14 mix suburban and rural.
Trump won 8 of these seats, Cooper also won 8, and Burr won 7.
DRA link

Overall a good map, but I have a few thoughts:

1. Rather than going into Gaston, I think 9 would be more natural going into Cabarrus - this would also mean it doesn't cross across Mecklenburg
2. Personal preference is to split both Guilford and Forsyth so you can keep more of the urban/suburban areas together. Alternative is to put High Point in the central NC district. Both I think are better than splitting Winston-Salem from its inner suburbs.
3. While the whole counties are nice, I actually think the Asheville-to-Watauga connection is better for 11. The reason actually has to do with 10, which awkwardly splits a bunch of smaller metros right now. Together with pulling 9 out of Gaston, I think you could do much neater versions of 5 and 10 with those changes.

The eastern part of the state is particularly nice. Wouldn't change anything there, except I might consider trying to pull the exurban areas of Franklin and maybe Nash into a Raleigh-area seat to help bolster 1's black percentage and send 1 into Wayne or Lenoir.

At first I did want to pair Union and Cabarrus, but then I found I could place all of Cabarrus in 8, making it both neater and split less counties.
The Triad is too large to fully keep within one district anyway - a split has to be made somewhere.
Regardless I am making an alternative that goes down these paths.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Update: I found the only way to avoid having a gratitious county split would be to have the excess population of 4 go into Guilford, as to allow the 6th to move west and thus allow Winston-Salem to be paired with most of its orbit. The territory vacated by 4 is picked up by 5. So the 5th now extends all the way to Caswell.
Charlotte was harder to work with. I settled on a seat that tries to pick up black areas in a compact way (12) and a leftovers CD (9). 9 becomes more Dem due to my desire to have only one district taking in leftovers and rearranging of 12; it loses exurban Union, which flips the district from Trump to Biden. It trades minority precincts with huge margins in percentage, with white precincts with larger numbers of numerical votes. In any case, with exurban Union having nowhere else to go, it went into 8.
It feels a bit more Dem-favoring than it should be, and all these decisions tilted the map a bit in the Ds favor. At the same time it seems to reflect non-county CoIs a bit better. So I'm not sure what to think. It's still fair, but a slightly different shade perhaps.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/5aeabae3-0c8b-4130-9efc-a8f98532358f

[Vern]

I wonder if we will get the final draft today or next week.

[compucomp]

Looks like Democrats are going to pay again for stupidly not passing an independent redistricting commission here in early 2010 when polls showed them losing their legislative majorities.

Or at least they could have given their governor veto power over redistricting when they gave governors veto power over other legislation in 1997. Democrats were in charge of the legislature then. Oops....

[lfromnj]

Weirdly NC democrats have been fairly quiet about what is happening. So far the only guy who I see has said anything is the Cumberland state senator.

[I’m not Stu]

Don't Democrats still have a 4-3 majority on SCONC?