North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[GALeftist]

Technically the court can do whatever they want. The leg just has a realistic nuclear option.

Lol imagined getting impeach for using special master to draw a map.

This is where our system really starts to fail. There are no repercussions for lawmakers who do this, even though their motives and actions are brazenly corrupt.

the repercussions are elections, if voters see no fault with the legislators' actions then so be it

When you use gerrymandering to rig the elections in your favor, then impeach if the court tries to undo this gerrymandering, you create a Catch 22.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Technically the court can do whatever they want. The leg just has a realistic nuclear option.

Lol imagined getting impeach for using special master to draw a map.

This is where our system really starts to fail. There are no repercussions for lawmakers who do this, even though their motives and actions are brazenly corrupt.

the repercussions are elections, if voters see no fault with the legislators' actions then so be it

When you use gerrymandering to rig the elections in your favor, then impeach if the court tries to undo this gerrymandering, you create a Catch 22.

I could see this getting some national headlines, though ultimately prolly shifts the scales very little and the GOP will almost certainly hold both chambers, perhaps with a supermajority

[lfromnj]

Technically the court can do whatever they want. The leg just has a realistic nuclear option.

Lol imagined getting impeach for using special master to draw a map.

This is where our system really starts to fail. There are no repercussions for lawmakers who do this, even though their motives and actions are brazenly corrupt.

the repercussions are elections, if voters see no fault with the legislators' actions then so be it

When you use gerrymandering to rig the elections in your favor, then impeach if the court tries to undo this gerrymandering, you create a Catch 22.

Well as I said, I don't know if it would happen. I highly doubt they would do it over fixing the major gerrymander in the legislative district which is the 2 NE senate districts. But on the other hand there isn't much one could definetively say was a gerrymander in the state senate. The state house has a few examples like Cabarrus/Gastonia. Overall the court would definetely be pushing their luck by "ungerrymandering" a map that doesn't have much to really change. Maybe there is appetite for it at all. ProgMods statement about being worried from blowback is certainly a factor which is why there is no point in fighting a fix of the VRA senate districts. Infact even if the court fixes that it is possible the GOP could still win both seats anyway.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Technically the court can do whatever they want. The leg just has a realistic nuclear option.

Lol imagined getting impeach for using special master to draw a map.

This is where our system really starts to fail. There are no repercussions for lawmakers who do this, even though their motives and actions are brazenly corrupt.

the repercussions are elections, if voters see no fault with the legislators' actions then so be it

When you use gerrymandering to rig the elections in your favor, then impeach if the court tries to undo this gerrymandering, you create a Catch 22.

Well as I said, I don't know if it would happen. I highly doubt they would do it over fixing the major gerrymander in the legislative district which is the 2 NE senate districts. But on the other hand there isn't much one could definetively say was a gerrymander in the state senate. The state house has a few examples like Cabarrus/Gastonia. Overall the court would definetely be pushing their luck by "ungerrymandering" a map that doesn't have much to really change. Maybe there is appetite for it at all. ProgMods statement about being worried from blowback is certainly a factor which is why there is no point in fighting a fix of the VRA senate districts. Infact even if the court fixes that it is possible the GOP could still win both seats anyway.

What if the court were to court overturn the entire congressional map outside of just NC-02? Obviously that would be less of a personal problem for the state legislatures as their seats aren’t changing, but congressional redistrictong seems to be highest stakes.

[jimrtex]

If you honestly think that is why the Democrats in then states do that. Then you are fooling yourself.

I’m not saying it’s the only reason. But it was definitely republicans that started the modern gerrymandering war with the old Texas, Louisiana, Florida maps of the 2000s & 2010s. Democrats also are playing in this, but we’re the ones trying to end it.

I think you are forgetting what Democrats did in NC for years. Republicans in NC at least are making maps that are too crazy

...back when the Democratic party in states like NC and TX was still led by white conservatives. You may not be aware that a decade ago, Republicans saw gerrymandering as a necessary tool to achieve power, while the people advocating for commissions and independent redistricting were Democrats. Good government and independent redistricting are liberal priorities. After Republicans used gerrymandering to lock up state legislatures and Congress, many liberals said Inks this, let's go for the jugular, too.

Democrats are not liberals. They are leftists.

Have you never heard of Vera vs. Richards?

[jimrtex]

North Carolina Supreme Court has agreed to delay the primaries.

https://twitter.com/SFalmlen/status/1468697706994544640?s=20

GOOD

If the NCGOP wants war, they'll get war. They might still win it, but they'll have to fight it out and pay a price.

All out war ends in impeachment, the NC court should be careful about pushing it too far especially with regards to legislative districts. You tell me what you would strike down on the above senate maps.

https://sites.duke.edu/quantifyinggerrymandering/files/2021/08/countyClusters2020.pdf

Use these if you are confused about any weird districts. For example 19/21 look weird but are 100% justifiable.  Democrats wanted to split Fayetteville in 2 to get 2 Dem seats. The GOP merely said no to that. In exchange they were however consistent on the senate map and did not split Wilmington. If the NC court is going to say you can't split Wilmington but must split Fayetteville they really are pushing their luck.

It is possible that the clustering algorithm, which was devised by the NC Supreme Court, is not working. It requires smallest clusters (i.e. single counties, two counties, three counties) be drawn first. The remnant area or areas must also be able to divided into districts within 5% limits. The initial clusters may push these remnant areas closer to the 5% threshold which makes it harder to split on counties. I bet that 7-county, 4-district cluster that snakes from north of Charlotte, to east of Greensboro has a significant deviation. It is surrounded by two-county and three-county clusters, and instead gets chopped.

Better would be to simply ignore the five percent limts and divide the state into (1) multi-county, single-member districts, or (2) single-county multi-member districts, or (3) single-county single-member districts. Alternative plans can be compared based on standard deviation. Then all that has to be done is to divide the single-county multi-member districts.

This complies with the NC Constitution, the VRA, and equal protection.

Alternatively do the same and adopt weighted voting.

[jimrtex]

This is pointless. The SCONC will flip anyway and republicans will draw another gerrymander mid decade

There’s no downside for us; why not fight it in court and see what we can get?

This.  It's also unconstitutional in NC to redraw the state legislative districts mid-decade, so if either of those maps get thrown out, the changes will stick.  Dems could plausibly flip a chamber over the course of the decade.

Did they explicitly forbid it? If not, this will be up to the likely GOP SC in 2022.

It says the process is done at the first legislative session after the census is released. 

Have you checked TX, GA, NV constitutions? I believe such language should be there as well. I am curious which state does not have this type of language.

TX and NV have this language for the legislative districts.  Georgia’s language is a bit more open.

TX did this back in 2000s. NV threatened to do this in 2010s. Hence I don't think such languages are major obstacles, especially with a friendly court.

The legislature failed to do legislative redistricting in 2001, so it was done by the Legislative Redistricting Board under terms of the Texas Constitution.

The legislature failed to redistrict Congress in 2001 because of a deadlock between the Senate and House. The federal court intervened and imposed a map largely based on the 1990's Democrat gerrymander.

In 2003, the legislature was able to draw a congressional map and do so, radically undoing the past Democrat gerrymanders.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1478055610209951753

As we can see the point of this lawsuit is not merely to prevent a GOP gerrymander but to make Democratic gerrymanders in reverse.

Having an R buncombe district or 2 swing districts is reasonable. I don't know why the GOP made it so ugly though. There aren't any R incumbent demands here as all 3 are D.This is simply due to the fact that even If Buncombe is a safe D County there is an Asheville pack. The rest of the county is like Biden +2. The plaintiffs rather than actually fighting for fair maps by demanding that Gastonia not be split demands an Asheville crack to save the 3 Dem incumbents.

Note that the GOP map is still bad imo but what the plaintiffs are demanding is much worse.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Was watching a bit of the trial was funny because the defense was mad that Dems used a color cartogram.

[Sol]

https://mobile.twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1478055610209951753

As we can see the point of this lawsuit is not merely to prevent a GOP gerrymander but to make Democratic gerrymanders in reverse.

Having an R buncombe district or 2 swing districts is reasonable. I don't know why the GOP made it so ugly though. There aren't any R incumbent demands here as all 3 are D.This is simply due to the fact that even If Buncombe is a safe D County there is an Asheville pack. The rest of the county is like Biden +2. The plaintiffs rather than actually fighting for fair maps by demanding that Gastonia not be split demands an Asheville crack to save the 3 Dem incumbents.

Note that the GOP map is still bad imo but what the plaintiffs are demanding is much worse.

All of the Democratic incumbents in Asheville are retiring though--I don't think it's that. (And it's not a side effect of the maps as far as I can tell, the two who are in safe districts are leaving too).

IMO it's more of a combination of wanting genuinely proportional districts--which is understandable though I disagree, genuinely not thinking of Gastonia as an area where they could get a district (Gaston County has a much smaller footprint in D party politics than Buncombe), and, in recognition of the previous judicial decision which split Asheville three ways, going for something which might be more attractive to the court.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1478055610209951753

As we can see the point of this lawsuit is not merely to prevent a GOP gerrymander but to make Democratic gerrymanders in reverse.

Having an R buncombe district or 2 swing districts is reasonable. I don't know why the GOP made it so ugly though. There aren't any R incumbent demands here as all 3 are D.This is simply due to the fact that even If Buncombe is a safe D County there is an Asheville pack. The rest of the county is like Biden +2. The plaintiffs rather than actually fighting for fair maps by demanding that Gastonia not be split demands an Asheville crack to save the 3 Dem incumbents.

Note that the GOP map is still bad imo but what the plaintiffs are demanding is much worse.

All of the Democratic incumbents in Asheville are retiring though--I don't think it's that. (And it's not a side effect of the maps as far as I can tell, the two who are in safe districts are leaving too).

IMO it's more of a combination of wanting genuinely proportional districts--which is understandable though I disagree, genuinely not thinking of Gastonia as an area where they could get a district (Gaston County has a much smaller footprint in D party politics than Buncombe), and, in recognition of the previous judicial decision which split Asheville three ways, going for something which might be more attractive to the court.

Fair enough. A Gastonia district would still help with proportionalityif one cares. It would be +2 Cooper. So this would be a swing seat Democrats could win if they are winning North Carolina. Unlike the other mill towns in Western NC it seems that Gastonia has not trended much in any direction so overall the seat would be a possible majority winner for Democrats.
Also let's not forget a Biden Cabarrus district . Although Democrats are new to Cabarrus that would be a possible diversifying district that Democrats could win. Even then the old Asheville map never really needed to be fixed if one cared about proportionality. Packing Asheville into 1 super blue seat and then evenly dividing the rest of the county would result in 2 very narrow Biden seats. So still keeps proportionality it is just that those seats would be competive. I really don't think the goal here is proportionality but another reason. It's very suspicious these good government groups which always want "competive" districts and/or proportionality don't instead ask for the option of 2 hyper competitve Buncombe districts. It's also not terrible on COI grounds as it just requires cherry picking a few precicnts really.  


Also I know you would know about the Gastonia district but here we go. Cooper +2, Trump +4 2020 and Tillis +5 in 2014. I used 2014 as I think its a good way to show the trends in NC.



An Actual good government group that cares about balancing proportionality/competitive concerns should obviously sue for this. 2 narrow Biden seats(+1/+2) which Democrats would easily win in a year like 2018. It keeps most of the city of Asheville together and only has a few cherry picked precincts to keep both districts a bit evened out(not what I would do but its not the worst).

Instead the demand is that the 3 Safe D protection offer stay in place instead of actual "good government" districts. Overall I can't see any reason other than your court ruling reason to go for 3 Asheville districts.


Also yes the Asheville district here is a slight Dem overpack but nothing crazy. Point is just to demonstrate that the older GOP dummymander is what should have been kept from certain perspectives.
Overall you are right with one of your points about the Dem footprints. Asheville seems like an area more involved in politics rather than more diverse working class areas in Cabarrus/Gastonia. It seems to be that they want to control 3 districts rather than merely 1. Meanwhile Cabarrus and Gastonia are overlooked.

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

Technically if you are willing to cut 5-7 precincts you can get a compact Gastonia seat <50% White by population. Obviously not VRA protected given the VAP and the electoral results demonstrating the need for a higher minority%, but if you are drawing a compact seat, why not go all the way?

[lfromnj]

SNIP

Technically if you are willing to cut 5-7 precincts you can get a compact Gastonia seat <50% White by population. Obviously not VRA protected given the VAP and the electoral results demonstrating the need for a higher minority%, but if you are drawing a compact seat, why not go all the way?

I don't see how you can get that.

[Virginiá]

the repercussions are elections, if voters see no fault with the legislators' actions then so be it

Which is a major reason behind gerrymandering - politicians insulating themselves from repercussions by drawing as many friendly districts as possible using their existing power as legislators.

Any system is going to rely on trust that lawmakers will do things in good faith, but how much is a variable you can adjust for with various forms of government and other checks and balances.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/will_doran/status/1478480966100275200

Atlas user in NC court.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/will_doran/status/1478480966100275200

Atlas user in NC court.

BASED

[Virginiá]

The Atlas Defense

[wbrocks67]

So what is the TLDR for this point in time on the outcome?

The map used in 2020 was pretty damn fair, it's frustrating that it couldn't just have been kept in place, since that *should* satisfy the rationals on both sides.

[lfromnj]

So what is the TLDR for this point in time on the outcome?

The map used in 2020 was pretty damn fair, it's frustrating that it couldn't just have been kept in place, since that *should* satisfy the rationals on both sides.

There's 14 districts in the first place.

[Vern]

So what is the TLDR for this point in time on the outcome?

The map used in 2020 was pretty damn fair, it's frustrating that it couldn't just have been kept in place, since that *should* satisfy the rationals on both sides.

This is a “Tell me you know nothing about the subject at hand, without telling me you know nothing about the subject at hand” post.

[wbrocks67]

Why do people need to be such a**holes? There's no reason for attitude, jfc.

[ProgressiveModerate]

So what is the TLDR for this point in time on the outcome?

The map used in 2020 was pretty damn fair, it's frustrating that it couldn't just have been kept in place, since that *should* satisfy the rationals on both sides.

There's 14 districts in the first place.

Ye a least change map was always going to be tricky since there was no obvious place to put the new district other than “in the triangle”, which means most parts of the state where redistricting is decisive would have to be shifted significantly anyways. Doesn’t excuse the GOP Gerry though.

[BoiseBoy]

So any chance the congressional map gets overturned or is at least ordered to change 1-2 districts?

[Sol]

So any chance the congressional map gets overturned or is at least ordered to change 1-2 districts?

I think there's a decent shot that NC-02 (old NC-01) gets remade to be at least likely Dem/VRA-compliant.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if they end up upholding the gerrymander of the Triad, considering the not-so-subtle pressure the NCGA has been applying to the court over the related Voter ID lawsuits and recusal issues therein.

State legislature I suspect will be similar--reconfiguration in the NE and maybe Asheville but little else.

Hope I'm wrong!

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DallasWoodhouse/status/1478826104794357761

Thats def a factor why certain areas aren't maxed out on the leg maps while congressional is maximized for basically everything but NC14.
For example
Wilmington for both state house and state senate. State house is arguably D friendly here.