North Carolina 2020 Redistricting
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lfromnj
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« Reply #800 on: December 06, 2021, 05:28:10 PM »
« edited: December 06, 2021, 06:12:48 PM by lfromnj »

This is pointless. The SCONC will flip anyway and republicans will draw another gerrymander mid decade

There’s no downside for us; why not fight it in court and see what we can get?

This.  It's also unconstitutional in NC to redraw the state legislative districts mid-decade, so if either of those maps get thrown out, the changes will stick.  Dems could plausibly flip a chamber over the course of the decade.

The question is what should be changed in the state senate maps for example other than the  NE senate districts. If the court starts demanding the NC GOP just start gerrymandering certain legislative districts in favor of the Democrats they might just go the impeachment route.


A lot of the legislative lawsuits is merely sticking everything they can. It really does risk a crisis.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #801 on: December 06, 2021, 05:58:18 PM »

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GALeftist
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« Reply #802 on: December 06, 2021, 08:32:10 PM »



Bummer, but expected. I do wonder if the courts will still decline to get involved before 2024, as people were speculating would be the case if filing had gone ahead from the outset.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #803 on: December 08, 2021, 04:49:54 PM »

North Carolina Supreme Court has agreed to delay the primaries.

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GALeftist
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« Reply #804 on: December 08, 2021, 04:55:08 PM »

North Carolina Supreme Court has agreed to delay the primaries.



Wonderful news! This day has been win after win in terms of redistricting.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #805 on: December 08, 2021, 05:01:06 PM »

North Carolina Supreme Court has agreed to delay the primaries.



Wonderful news! This day has been win after win in terms of redistricting.

What else am I missing other than Virginia?
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #806 on: December 08, 2021, 05:13:37 PM »

North Carolina Supreme Court has agreed to delay the primaries.



Wonderful news! This day has been win after win in terms of redistricting.

What else am I missing other than Virginia?
Ohio's court is seemingly unhappy with the maps there. Fair chance those are dedrawn.
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S019
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« Reply #807 on: December 08, 2021, 05:43:57 PM »

This is pointless. The SCONC will flip anyway and republicans will draw another gerrymander mid decade

There’s no downside for us; why not fight it in court and see what we can get?

This.  It's also unconstitutional in NC to redraw the state legislative districts mid-decade, so if either of those maps get thrown out, the changes will stick.  Dems could plausibly flip a chamber over the course of the decade.

The question is what should be changed in the state senate maps for example other than the  NE senate districts. If the court starts demanding the NC GOP just start gerrymandering certain legislative districts in favor of the Democrats they might just go the impeachment route.


A lot of the legislative lawsuits is merely sticking everything they can. It really does risk a crisis.

well seats like that 29 look quite bizarre, though I still expect the GOP to come out with a map that'd give them House and Senate majorities after the lawsuit, on the congressional level, the big sticking point is ofc NC-01 with a valid argument that it has been illegally diluted.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #808 on: December 08, 2021, 05:55:14 PM »

This is pointless. The SCONC will flip anyway and republicans will draw another gerrymander mid decade

There’s no downside for us; why not fight it in court and see what we can get?

This.  It's also unconstitutional in NC to redraw the state legislative districts mid-decade, so if either of those maps get thrown out, the changes will stick.  Dems could plausibly flip a chamber over the course of the decade.

The question is what should be changed in the state senate maps for example other than the  NE senate districts. If the court starts demanding the NC GOP just start gerrymandering certain legislative districts in favor of the Democrats they might just go the impeachment route.


A lot of the legislative lawsuits is merely sticking everything they can. It really does risk a crisis.

well seats like that 29 look quite bizarre, though I still expect the GOP to come out with a map that'd give them House and Senate majorities after the lawsuit, on the congressional level, the big sticking point is ofc NC-01 with a valid argument that it has been illegally diluted.

29 is a county cluster and its super safe r.The court isn't touching that. No partisan purposes here.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #809 on: December 08, 2021, 06:21:10 PM »

North Carolina Supreme Court has agreed to delay the primaries.



GOOD

If the NCGOP wants war, they'll get war. They might still win it, but they'll have to fight it out and pay a price.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #810 on: December 08, 2021, 06:35:38 PM »
« Edited: December 08, 2021, 07:09:16 PM by lfromnj »

North Carolina Supreme Court has agreed to delay the primaries.



GOOD

If the NCGOP wants war, they'll get war. They might still win it, but they'll have to fight it out and pay a price.

All out war ends in impeachment, the NC court should be careful about pushing it too far especially with regards to legislative districts. You tell me what you would strike down on the above senate maps.

https://sites.duke.edu/quantifyinggerrymandering/files/2021/08/countyClusters2020.pdf

Use these if you are confused about any weird districts. For example 19/21 look weird but are 100% justifiable.  Democrats wanted to split Fayetteville in 2 to get 2 Dem seats. The GOP merely said no to that. In exchange they were however consistent on the senate map and did not split Wilmington. If the NC court is going to say you can't split Wilmington but must split Fayetteville they really are pushing their luck.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #811 on: December 08, 2021, 06:56:22 PM »

I think the more egregious state legislative districts are in the lower chamber?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #812 on: December 08, 2021, 07:05:18 PM »
« Edited: December 08, 2021, 07:36:33 PM by lfromnj »

I think the more egregious state legislative districts are in the lower chamber?

To some degree.
https://www.carolinaforward.org/blog/state-house-gerrymander

Heres what I think are the Democrat complaints.

First one is Wilmington. But actually the thing is it seems IMO to me that Wilmington is actually Dem friendly in the state house map because instead of packing Wilmington into 1 district it splits it into 2 which thereby creates a 2nd Cooper district while leaving the main seat somewhat safe. Ok so first one can be chalked off to Dem whining. The deviation complaints are also total BS here because even if the district is 4.8% overpopulated the surrounding districts are similarly overpopulated because the cluster as a whole is very overpopulated.

Pitt: Somehow a North south split of this county is a gerrymander by creating a 61% Biden seat and a 53% Trump seat. I don't really like it and I think a donut here makes more sense but the partisan effect would exactly be the same.

Cumberland: The GOP made 2 swing seats for their 2 incumbents . I think this attack is reasonable although the swing seats are merely swing seats and both voted for Cooper. The GOP didn't even abuse the "rotten borough" of Fort Bragg so it isn't that egregious. I think the court could reasonably shut this down to just forcing 1 GOP seat though.

Next on the list is Durham/Wake. The Durham seat has legitimate complaints but no drawing 2 Trump Wake seats in the North and South is perfectly justifiable.

Chatham/Randolph: GOP conceded that one already for the final map and the seat is now Biden +6 instead of Biden +1. Ergo doesn't matter.

Guilford/Forsyth: These are weird to draw. I think Guilford is fine but Forsyth is a medium  GOP gerrymander. They didn't go all in as I think the 3rd seat voted for Cooper but it still seems to be a GOP gerrymander. Forsyth is a bit awkward to draw .

Mecklenburg: More Dem whining. Northern seat loses a precinct thanks to an extra seat in the first place but somehow that is GOP gerrymandering. Southern swing seat as well.

Watauga/Ashe: Dems did win the Watauga seat in 2018 fwiw but at the same time they didn't remove Dem precincts from Watauga and one of the counties had to be split anyway

Buncombe: No Democrats, the GOP getting 1 R seat or 2 swing seats from Buncombe is perfectly reasonable as Asheville is a super pack. The map is ugly I guess  and I wouldn't mind a redraw to what I drew earlier in this thread when discussing with Sol but the effect would be the same.

Surprisingly the post didn't mention what I would actually call a gerrymander unlike most of this whining.

Cabarrus/Gastonia. You can draw a Cooper seat based in Gastonia which is Trump +4. They also split Cabarrus in a GOP friendly way . This is pretty egregious but if I was the Democrats I would consider letting it stay I guess as it could very likely dummymander.


The simple answer is if you place a strict relatively non partisan criteria such as the county clusters, you can't gerrymander that much. The GOP managed to get some egregious legislative gerrymanders in 2010 by breaking the counties to just claim every seat was VRA. Thomas struck down that down.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #813 on: December 08, 2021, 07:21:52 PM »
« Edited: December 08, 2021, 07:26:04 PM by lfromnj »





Top is NC GOP map,
Bottom is my expectation of a fair map for this cluster. NC GOP green district isn't even contiguous lol. My map creates a logical Wilmington seat, one Coastal New Hanover seat, one inland seat with both counties featuring the suburbs of Wilmington and one Coastal Brunswick seat. The court could shut this down I guess and I would be fine with it because its good for COI but it merely hurts Democrats so not sure why they would do this. The other option is to make the area even more Dem friendly for some reason.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #814 on: December 08, 2021, 08:38:26 PM »

North Carolina Supreme Court has agreed to delay the primaries.



GOOD

If the NCGOP wants war, they'll get war. They might still win it, but they'll have to fight it out and pay a price.

All out war ends in impeachment, the NC court should be careful about pushing it too far especially with regards to legislative districts. You tell me what you would strike down on the above senate maps.

https://sites.duke.edu/quantifyinggerrymandering/files/2021/08/countyClusters2020.pdf

Use these if you are confused about any weird districts. For example 19/21 look weird but are 100% justifiable.  Democrats wanted to split Fayetteville in 2 to get 2 Dem seats. The GOP merely said no to that. In exchange they were however consistent on the senate map and did not split Wilmington. If the NC court is going to say you can't split Wilmington but must split Fayetteville they really are pushing their luck.

The lawsuit also includes CD maps, right? Obviously those are indefensible.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #815 on: December 08, 2021, 08:52:09 PM »
« Edited: December 08, 2021, 08:56:57 PM by lfromnj »

North Carolina Supreme Court has agreed to delay the primaries.



GOOD

If the NCGOP wants war, they'll get war. They might still win it, but they'll have to fight it out and pay a price.

All out war ends in impeachment, the NC court should be careful about pushing it too far especially with regards to legislative districts. You tell me what you would strike down on the above senate maps.

https://sites.duke.edu/quantifyinggerrymandering/files/2021/08/countyClusters2020.pdf

Use these if you are confused about any weird districts. For example 19/21 look weird but are 100% justifiable.  Democrats wanted to split Fayetteville in 2 to get 2 Dem seats. The GOP merely said no to that. In exchange they were however consistent on the senate map and did not split Wilmington. If the NC court is going to say you can't split Wilmington but must split Fayetteville they really are pushing their luck.

The lawsuit also includes CD maps, right? Obviously those are indefensible.
Yes its both.  I still want to hear your perspective on what legislative districts you would change. Analysis is very easy and objective with regards to legislative districts as you can easily only rotate a few at a time.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #816 on: December 08, 2021, 09:09:42 PM »



BTW here is the full order details. We are not going to get delays it appears, and if there is a remap there will be time for it.
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Sol
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« Reply #817 on: December 08, 2021, 09:14:21 PM »
« Edited: December 08, 2021, 09:17:43 PM by Sol »

I could easily see the state court dismissing all the suits except for the obviously gerrymandered choice of clusters in the NE/NC-02. I also think that's less likely to result in backlash from the NCGA, since those are relatively insignificant portions of the map and it's obviously a bit out on a limb anyway.

Ultimately the real reason why the current lines are bad for Dems on the state legislative level comes down to a combination of unlucky clusters (especially in the house) and a crummy rural vote distribution, especially in the eastern part of the state, where there are a lot of 54R-46D type districts unless you try very hard to avoid this.

There is of course the occasional GOP thumb on the scale, which is certainly present (see the Charlotte suburbs as lfromnj mentioned) but tbh the county cluster rule imposes such intense regulation on districting that it makes it hard to do sophisticated gerrymandering of any kind. Often too these are justifiable--Moore+Outer Cumberland is no worse that Moore+Fayetteville.

The thing about the county cluster rule is that it basically acts as an insurance policy, preventing each party from getting thrown out by an overpowered gerrymander.

My big issue with it tbh is that the clusters often don't make any sense with reference to geography (as seen in the above discussion) or communities--you get jokes like Moore+Cumberland.

^^This is my big takeaway about the cluster rule: it prevents anything drastic by creating dumb random seats that aren't good at doing anything : it blocks gerrymandering and incumbent protection but also blocks sensible lines and population equality.  Democrats argued for the county rule because it was the obvious way to overturn Republican maps but now it's in place I'd argue that it's an obstacle to genuinely good mapping.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #818 on: December 08, 2021, 09:26:24 PM »
« Edited: December 08, 2021, 10:47:18 PM by lfromnj »

I could easily see the state court dismissing all the suits except for the obviously gerrymandered choice of clusters in the NE/NC-02. I also think that's less likely to result in backlash from the NCGA, since those are relatively insignificant portions of the map and it's obviously a bit out on a limb anyway.

Ultimately the real reason why the current lines are bad for Dems on the state legislative level comes down to a combination of unlucky clusters (especially in the house) and a crummy rural vote distribution, especially in the eastern part of the state, where there are a lot of 54R-46D type districts unless you try very hard to avoid this.

There is of course the occasional GOP thumb on the scale, which is certainly present (see the Charlotte suburbs as lfromnj mentioned) but tbh the county cluster rule imposes such intense regulation on districting that it makes it hard to do sophisticated gerrymandering of any kind. Often too these are justifiable--Moore+Outer Cumberland is no worse that Moore+Fayetteville.

The thing about the county cluster rule is that it basically acts as an insurance policy, preventing each party from getting thrown out by an overpowered gerrymander.

My big issue with it tbh is that the clusters often don't make any sense with reference to geography (as seen in the above discussion) or communities--you get jokes like Moore+Cumberland.

^^This is my big takeaway about the cluster rule: it prevents anything drastic by creating dumb random seats that aren't good at doing anything : it blocks gerrymandering and incumbent protection but also blocks sensible lines and population equality.  Democrats argued for the county rule because it was the obvious way to overturn Republican maps but now it's in place I'd argue that it's an obstacle to genuinely good mapping.

Did you mean the thumb on the scale as the actual Mecklenburg districts or the surrounding counties? Like the Southern Charlotte senate district is perhaps one could describe as that as its a quite reasonable district although they likely pushed certain precincts, but the splits of Cabarrus and especially Gastonia are not what I would call the thumb on a scale but just full out gerrymandering.

Also I think the cluster rule works ok for the state house? Obviously state senate has some joke clusters like as the aforementioned Cumberland/Moore one but I can't really see anything that bad in the state house other than the Chatham to Richmond 5 district cluster. Even then its really only Moore county that gets screwed there.

Also I went ahead and looked some other areas that are gerrymandered by the NC GOP in the state house which weren't mentioned by that Dem group.

Alamance:  GOP gerrymander that splits Burlington to keep the Dem seat more swingy while still not risking the GOP outer seat too much.

Robeson: They split the Lumbee areas.  The Democrats offered an amendment to fix this but the GOP refused for some reason. Not really partisan, just not sure why they didn't fix it. The Lumbee are more elastic than whites but the seat still flips at this point.

edit: The split of the Lumbee isn't super egregious as the district is still 45% native and the Dem amendment split Lumberton compared to the R proposal which keeps it whole.

Onslow: Not sure if this is a full gerrymander but it is reasonably possible to use the "Rotten Borough" of the military base to create a Cooper seat in this deep red county.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #819 on: December 09, 2021, 08:15:39 AM »

North Carolina Supreme Court has agreed to delay the primaries.



GOOD

If the NCGOP wants war, they'll get war. They might still win it, but they'll have to fight it out and pay a price.

All out war ends in impeachment, the NC court should be careful about pushing it too far especially with regards to legislative districts. You tell me what you would strike down on the above senate maps.

https://sites.duke.edu/quantifyinggerrymandering/files/2021/08/countyClusters2020.pdf

Use these if you are confused about any weird districts. For example 19/21 look weird but are 100% justifiable.  Democrats wanted to split Fayetteville in 2 to get 2 Dem seats. The GOP merely said no to that. In exchange they were however consistent on the senate map and did not split Wilmington. If the NC court is going to say you can't split Wilmington but must split Fayetteville they really are pushing their luck.

The lawsuit also includes CD maps, right? Obviously those are indefensible.
Yes its both.  I still want to hear your perspective on what legislative districts you would change. Analysis is very easy and objective with regards to legislative districts as you can easily only rotate a few at a time.

I'm not paying attention to the legislative maps. I'm sure there's still plenty of GOP f**kery on the margins, but the consensus seems to be that they're largely defensible? All right then.

The CD map should absolutely be struck down, and it should be so before the 2022 cycle begins in earnest.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #820 on: December 09, 2021, 08:28:28 AM »
« Edited: December 09, 2021, 08:36:56 AM by Mr.Phips »

North Carolina Supreme Court has agreed to delay the primaries.



GOOD

If the NCGOP wants war, they'll get war. They might still win it, but they'll have to fight it out and pay a price.

All out war ends in impeachment, the NC court should be careful about pushing it too far especially with regards to legislative districts. You tell me what you would strike down on the above senate maps.

https://sites.duke.edu/quantifyinggerrymandering/files/2021/08/countyClusters2020.pdf

Use these if you are confused about any weird districts. For example 19/21 look weird but are 100% justifiable.  Democrats wanted to split Fayetteville in 2 to get 2 Dem seats. The GOP merely said no to that. In exchange they were however consistent on the senate map and did not split Wilmington. If the NC court is going to say you can't split Wilmington but must split Fayetteville they really are pushing their luck.

Dems don’t have a ton of argument on the legislative districts.  However on the congressional districts, they can easily argue that the black vote was diluted in NC-02 and that there is no good reason for the Guilford county split.  Republicans could probably easily get away with a Guilford/Rockingham/Randolph district that would have only went 50%-48% for Biden that they would likely win in 2022.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #821 on: December 09, 2021, 08:30:23 AM »

North Carolina Supreme Court has agreed to delay the primaries.



GOOD

If the NCGOP wants war, they'll get war. They might still win it, but they'll have to fight it out and pay a price.

All out war ends in impeachment, the NC court should be careful about pushing it too far especially with regards to legislative districts. You tell me what you would strike down on the above senate maps.

https://sites.duke.edu/quantifyinggerrymandering/files/2021/08/countyClusters2020.pdf

Use these if you are confused about any weird districts. For example 19/21 look weird but are 100% justifiable.  Democrats wanted to split Fayetteville in 2 to get 2 Dem seats. The GOP merely said no to that. In exchange they were however consistent on the senate map and did not split Wilmington. If the NC court is going to say you can't split Wilmington but must split Fayetteville they really are pushing their luck.

Dems don’t have a ton of argument on the legislative districts.  However on the congressional districts, they can easily argue that the black vote was diluted in NC-02 and that there is no good reason for the Guilford county split.

Yes, there's a serious VRA issue with the new NC-01, let alone the stricter state level standards the court imposed.
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David Hume
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« Reply #822 on: December 09, 2021, 11:50:06 AM »


BTW here is the full order details. We are not going to get delays it appears, and if there is a remap there will be time for it.
It seems they are skipping the appellate court and directly hear appeals in the SC? I remembered the CJ will appoint a three appellate court judge panel. How do they avoid it?
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David Hume
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« Reply #823 on: December 09, 2021, 11:53:13 AM »

This is pointless. The SCONC will flip anyway and republicans will draw another gerrymander mid decade

There’s no downside for us; why not fight it in court and see what we can get?

This.  It's also unconstitutional in NC to redraw the state legislative districts mid-decade, so if either of those maps get thrown out, the changes will stick.  Dems could plausibly flip a chamber over the course of the decade.
Did they explicitly forbid it? If not, this will be up to the likely GOP SC in 2022.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #824 on: December 09, 2021, 12:03:45 PM »

This is pointless. The SCONC will flip anyway and republicans will draw another gerrymander mid decade

There’s no downside for us; why not fight it in court and see what we can get?

This.  It's also unconstitutional in NC to redraw the state legislative districts mid-decade, so if either of those maps get thrown out, the changes will stick.  Dems could plausibly flip a chamber over the course of the decade.
Did they explicitly forbid it? If not, this will be up to the likely GOP SC in 2022.

It says the process is done at the first legislative session after the census is released. 
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