North Carolina 2020 Redistricting
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  North Carolina 2020 Redistricting
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Author Topic: North Carolina 2020 Redistricting  (Read 84720 times)
Mr.Phips
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« Reply #625 on: October 19, 2021, 11:01:32 AM »

Welp, hopefully this gets struck down but I doubt it. Newby will probably stall until GOP wins the court

Some people have said they he doesn’t have the power to do this if the majority of the court wants to expedite hearing any case.
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #626 on: October 19, 2021, 06:37:47 PM »

Six maps proposed by legislative members have been posted on the NCLEG website:

https://www.ncleg.gov/Committees/CommitteeInfo/SenateStanding/154#2021\Member%20Submitted%20Maps
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #627 on: October 19, 2021, 07:02:18 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2021, 07:06:02 PM by Oryxslayer »


CBK 4 and 5 (5 is a slight change to 4) are too good for this world, must be Dem-drawn maps since we didn't see them earlier.

CMT9 is the wtf map that fails to try and cut up charlotte spotted 2 weeks ago.

Also anyone know what exactly is the naming convention? C is for congress, S is for senate, but the next two letters clearly arn't signifying who submitted the map given BK3's differences from BK 4 and 5.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #628 on: October 19, 2021, 07:05:03 PM »

CBK-4 is what a normal, plain, fair map of North Carolina would look like.   There's really nothing awkward or forced anywhere, no tentacles, nothing.

CBK-5 is almost the same, it just has that weird arm of NC-11 up to Alleghany county. 
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Thunder98
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« Reply #629 on: October 19, 2021, 08:29:51 PM »

I was able to create a fair map that is very similar to the CBK-4 plan. This map is 6R-6D-2T.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/51abfce5-5f81-4625-a194-2690a53d9673



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Vern
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« Reply #630 on: October 19, 2021, 08:42:01 PM »

I looks like I will end up being in the 7th district, if they keep the numbering the same, and they do not add any more maps. 
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lfromnj
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« Reply #631 on: October 20, 2021, 01:08:39 AM »
« Edited: October 20, 2021, 08:30:48 PM by lfromnj »

Statehouse minority leader is being moved from a Biden +22 to Biden +900 votes district.



North Carolina R's literally pull a Mattis !
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #632 on: October 20, 2021, 09:19:21 PM »



Another attempt at a compact R gerry
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lfromnj
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« Reply #633 on: October 20, 2021, 11:38:12 PM »
« Edited: October 20, 2021, 11:46:57 PM by lfromnj »

Statehouse minority leader is being moved from a Biden +22 to Biden +900 votes district.



North Carolina R's literally pull a Mattis!

I think this tweet does not understand the redistricting process at play here in North Carolina. Given the requirements made around clustering counties, it is inevitable that Reives would no longer sit in a massively Biden-favoring district. Last cycle, Chatham county, a county Biden won by 11.5%, was paired with Durham county, home of the city of Durham. Durham gave Biden 80% of the vote to Trump's 18% and the three precincts taken from the county to bring Reives's district up to population all roughly split that way too. Now, after the 2020 Census, Durham was optimally matched with Person county to its north. Chatham is now in a five county cluster of which it is by far the most Democratic of those counties. Even if you were to try and create the most Biden district possible in the cluster while abiding by the assembly's own rules, Trump would still win it 49.6% to 49.1%, and that district wouldn't even include the Reives residence. In fact, the only reason that the current draft map gives Reives a Biden district at all is because the NC GOP, in violation of its own redistricting criteria, is splitting Moore county, something that shouldn't be done given Moore's population.

The NC GOP moderately used deviation to add an extra precinct to shift it from Biden +6 to Biden +1.  The rest of the districts in the cluster are relatively underpopulated while this one is nearly 5%(max legal) overpopulated. Really not the biggest gerrymander in the history of the world but it is funny to note.


I guess as you said the NC GOP is violating other criteria in favor of compactness which favors Reives in the end. However this does make sure Democrats can only win 1 district instead of 2.



So yeah the tweet is wrong in that they aren't really trying hard to go after him as they could just do what you suggested by keeping Moore whole. They are correct in the deviation abuse though as they could obviously reduce deviation for the district but they had a freebie here.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #634 on: October 20, 2021, 11:45:44 PM »

Statehouse minority leader is being moved from a Biden +22 to Biden +900 votes district.



North Carolina R's literally pull a Mattis!

I think this tweet does not understand the redistricting process at play here in North Carolina. Given the requirements made around clustering counties, it is inevitable that Reives would no longer sit in a massively Biden-favoring district. Last cycle, Chatham county, a county Biden won by 11.5%, was paired with Durham county, home of the city of Durham. Durham gave Biden 80% of the vote to Trump's 18% and the three precincts taken from the county to bring Reives's district up to population all roughly split that way too. Now, after the 2020 Census, Durham was optimally matched with Person county to its north. Chatham is now in a five county cluster of which it is by far the most Democratic of those counties. Even if you were to try and create the most Biden district possible in the cluster while abiding by the assembly's own rules, Trump would still win it 49.6% to 49.1%, and that district wouldn't even include the Reives residence. In fact, the only reason that the current draft map gives Reives a Biden district at all is because the NC GOP, in violation of its own redistricting criteria, is splitting Moore county, something that shouldn't be done given Moore's population.

The NC GOP moderately used deviation to add an extra precinct to shift it from Biden +6 to Biden +1.  The rest of the districts in the cluster are relatively underpopulated while this one is nearly 5%(max legal) overpopulated. Really not the biggest gerrymander in the history of the world but it is funny to note.

Yeah. Rereading the thread on Twitter, I think my criticism is actually more on what you added in your post. The district no longer being Biden+22 or anywhere near that was inevitable. The extra work done by the NC GOP to press the population up to its limit as the other districts remain far smaller than needed is fairly blatant.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #635 on: October 20, 2021, 11:57:37 PM »
« Edited: October 21, 2021, 12:06:22 AM by lfromnj »

Statehouse minority leader is being moved from a Biden +22 to Biden +900 votes district.



North Carolina R's literally pull a Mattis!

I think this tweet does not understand the redistricting process at play here in North Carolina. Given the requirements made around clustering counties, it is inevitable that Reives would no longer sit in a massively Biden-favoring district. Last cycle, Chatham county, a county Biden won by 11.5%, was paired with Durham county, home of the city of Durham. Durham gave Biden 80% of the vote to Trump's 18% and the three precincts taken from the county to bring Reives's district up to population all roughly split that way too. Now, after the 2020 Census, Durham was optimally matched with Person county to its north. Chatham is now in a five county cluster of which it is by far the most Democratic of those counties. Even if you were to try and create the most Biden district possible in the cluster while abiding by the assembly's own rules, Trump would still win it 49.6% to 49.1%, and that district wouldn't even include the Reives residence. In fact, the only reason that the current draft map gives Reives a Biden district at all is because the NC GOP, in violation of its own redistricting criteria, is splitting Moore county, something that shouldn't be done given Moore's population.

The NC GOP moderately used deviation to add an extra precinct to shift it from Biden +6 to Biden +1.  The rest of the districts in the cluster are relatively underpopulated while this one is nearly 5%(max legal) overpopulated. Really not the biggest gerrymander in the history of the world but it is funny to note.

Yeah. Rereading the thread on Twitter, I think my criticism is actually more on what you added in your post. The district no longer being Biden+22 or anywhere near that was inevitable. The extra work done by the NC GOP to press the population up to its limit as the other districts remain far smaller than needed is fairly blatant.

Well maybe blatant to the NC supreme court and us of course.. Definitely not blatant to the average person. Federal courts generally look down at population deviation abuse although it generally has to be statewide and it is probably weaker after Rucho.  One use of it is not enough to draw the Federal courts ire atleast. IIRC the Georgia state house 2000 maps were struck down because literally every single district was +5 or -5% .  
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Thunder98
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« Reply #636 on: October 21, 2021, 09:23:35 AM »

This map is 11R-3D….

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #637 on: October 21, 2021, 11:41:29 AM »

Cracking Greensboro like that has to be a nonstarter. No way the SC doesn't strike this map down.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #638 on: October 21, 2021, 12:10:13 PM »

Cracking Greensboro like that has to be a nonstarter. No way the SC doesn't strike this map down.

Only if Dems can get the case heard and decided by November 2022 when Dems are likely to lose control of the court…
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #639 on: October 21, 2021, 12:14:09 PM »

Cracking Greensboro like that has to be a nonstarter. No way the SC doesn't strike this map down.

Only if Dems can get the case heard and decided by November 2022 when Dems are likely to lose control of the court…

Even then, a narrow 1-seat GOP majority might not necessarily want to undo a clear precedent. That's counting on a lot of things to go right for the GOP and I honestly don't understand why they'd bother when they can get a fairly compact 10-4 map and be done with it.
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Sol
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« Reply #640 on: October 21, 2021, 12:40:15 PM »

Cracking Greensboro like that has to be a nonstarter. No way the SC doesn't strike this map down.

Only if Dems can get the case heard and decided by November 2022 when Dems are likely to lose control of the court…

Even then, a narrow 1-seat GOP majority might not necessarily want to undo a clear precedent. That's counting on a lot of things to go right for the GOP and I honestly don't understand why they'd bother when they can get a fairly compact 10-4 map and be done with it.

This map is clearly intended to be a bit provocative--that's why they got rid of NC-01 as well. They aren't playing it safe.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #641 on: October 21, 2021, 12:53:06 PM »

Cracking Greensboro like that has to be a nonstarter. No way the SC doesn't strike this map down.

Only if Dems can get the case heard and decided by November 2022 when Dems are likely to lose control of the court…

Even then, a narrow 1-seat GOP majority might not necessarily want to undo a clear precedent. That's counting on a lot of things to go right for the GOP and I honestly don't understand why they'd bother when they can get a fairly compact 10-4 map and be done with it.

This map is clearly intended to be a bit provocative--that's why they got rid of NC-01 as well. They aren't playing it safe.

Yeah what they did in NC-01 is going to almost certainly result in a VRA challenge. 
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lfromnj
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« Reply #642 on: October 21, 2021, 01:21:49 PM »
« Edited: October 21, 2021, 01:25:04 PM by Chap Petersen Democrat »



Note this isn't about redistricting  but rather the court trying to declare the state constitution unconstitutional .
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Virginiá
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« Reply #643 on: October 21, 2021, 03:08:21 PM »

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Virginiá
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« Reply #644 on: October 21, 2021, 03:21:39 PM »

https://mobile.twitter.com/DallasWoodhouse/status/1451239387577081859

Note this isn't about redistricting  but rather the court trying to declare the state constitution unconstitutional .

Not hard to see them deploying that against Democrats for redistricting as well. I don't really think forcing the removal of two Rep. justices for potential conflicts of interest on this is worth the potential drama it would cause (or if it's justified, but that is another conversation), but if that is where the NCGOP is actually at, I could see them using it to sideline even a single justice until after 2022's elections, so any attempt to stop their gerrymander would be dead in the water unless Democrats later hold all their seats, which might not even matter if Republicans win veto-proof majorities in the legislature off of their maps and can then go hog-wild.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #645 on: October 21, 2021, 05:33:56 PM »



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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #646 on: October 21, 2021, 05:57:20 PM »

Cracking Greensboro like that has to be a nonstarter. No way the SC doesn't strike this map down.

Right now I think the biggest obstacle to an 11-3 is not the Greensboro crack but rather the VRA on NC-1.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #647 on: October 22, 2021, 01:32:02 PM »
« Edited: October 22, 2021, 01:50:39 PM by Chap Petersen Democrat »


State house

Also didn't realize but a fair map can actually have a fairly swing seat in Gastonia.
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #648 on: October 25, 2021, 02:10:55 PM »

Another new map (CST-8) has been posted:

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Stuart98
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« Reply #649 on: October 25, 2021, 02:37:08 PM »

I imported it into DRA.

Oddly fair 6-8 in 2020 president data, with 9 and 14 very close. Who drew this thing?
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