North Carolina 2020 Redistricting
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Author Topic: North Carolina 2020 Redistricting  (Read 84712 times)
Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #525 on: October 06, 2021, 02:53:00 PM »

This is just a f*** you to the NC Supreme Court
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #526 on: October 06, 2021, 03:05:07 PM »


My thoughts exactly. This map is a wishcast. It's purpose is either move the Overton Window so far to the right that when they proceed to draw 9-5 people accept said map despite it's clear partisanship, or they know the court's going to seize power very fast no matter what, so there is no point playing reasonable.
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they don't love you like i love you
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« Reply #527 on: October 06, 2021, 03:17:23 PM »

I think they're pulling a gambit here, though the NCSC still has a 4-3 D majority tge Republican narrowly won the Chief Justice seat and the Chief Justice appoints the judges who'll initially hear redistricting cases. So those will uphold the map and they hope to stall long enough for the map to be in place in 2022 and then hope to pick up a state Supreme Court seat so even the NCSC upholds it.

Good news: The Fourth Circuit is likely the most liberal federal court circuit now, so that's a likely avenue if they stall long enough 
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #528 on: October 06, 2021, 03:49:56 PM »

That 1st district would be so much better if they just put in Pitt and removed Nash and some of the coastal counties. As it is right now though it's likely a Trump district though.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #529 on: October 06, 2021, 04:00:21 PM »

That 1st district would be so much better if they just put in Pitt and removed Nash and some of the coastal counties. As it is right now though it's likely a Trump district though.

It is a Trump 2020 district by like 4 points although Clinton won it by 0.1%
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #530 on: October 06, 2021, 04:01:40 PM »

That 1st district would be so much better if they just put in Pitt and removed Nash and some of the coastal counties. As it is right now though it's likely a Trump district though.

It is a Trump 2020 district by like 4 points although Clinton won it by 0.1%
Yeah, it shouldn't be too hard to make that a Biden CD merely by removing a few counties and all.
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Sestak
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« Reply #531 on: October 06, 2021, 04:15:14 PM »

Why are people assuming this map is going to get struck down at all lmao
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GALeftist
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« Reply #532 on: October 06, 2021, 04:17:55 PM »

Why are people assuming this map is going to get struck down at all lmao

This proposal is playing with fire regarding racial gerrymandering, and the North Carolina Supreme Court is 4D-3R
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #533 on: October 06, 2021, 04:20:07 PM »

Why are people assuming this map is going to get struck down at all lmao

Because the NC Supreme Court already struck down the last two maps the state legislature drew, and this one is just as partisan, if not more partisan, than those? The NC Supreme Court has found a state constitutional prohibition on partisan gerrymandering, which basically means the Republicans automatically lose when they do stuff like this map would suggest. Maybe not if the Republicans could get control of the state SC, but they don't have it right now.
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Sestak
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« Reply #534 on: October 06, 2021, 04:20:30 PM »

Why are people assuming this map is going to get struck down at all lmao

This proposal is playing with fire regarding racial gerrymandering, and the North Carolina Supreme Court is 4D-3R

A federal suit’s likely result would be SCOTUS easing or eliminating the VRA district requirement, and the NCSC will be majority Republican by the time this reaches them. The map will hold up.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #535 on: October 06, 2021, 04:21:15 PM »

Why are people assuming this map is going to get struck down at all lmao

This proposal is playing with fire regarding racial gerrymandering, and the North Carolina Supreme Court is 4D-3R

A federal suit’s likely result would be SCOTUS easing or eliminating the VRA district requirement, and the NCSC will be majority Republican by the time this reaches them. The map will hold up.

The state suit happens first, not the federal one. Democrats would be stupid to sue in federal court, and there's no removal if the suit is based on the state constitution.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #536 on: October 06, 2021, 04:23:50 PM »



Second draft before they closed for the day. Swing district in West removed that was lean to Likely R .

Lean D swing district created using Guilford and 4 whole counties.
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Sestak
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« Reply #537 on: October 06, 2021, 04:25:44 PM »

Why are people assuming this map is going to get struck down at all lmao

This proposal is playing with fire regarding racial gerrymandering, and the North Carolina Supreme Court is 4D-3R

A federal suit’s likely result would be SCOTUS easing or eliminating the VRA district requirement, and the NCSC will be majority Republican by the time this reaches them. The map will hold up.

The state suit happens first, not the federal one. Democrats would be stupid to sue in federal court, and there's no removal if the suit is based on the state constitution.

Yes, but as I also pointed out, the full NCSC will probably not rule on this until after 2022 when it will likely have a GOP majority. So both avenues are fruitless.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #538 on: October 06, 2021, 04:31:53 PM »

Why are people assuming this map is going to get struck down at all lmao

This proposal is playing with fire regarding racial gerrymandering, and the North Carolina Supreme Court is 4D-3R

A federal suit’s likely result would be SCOTUS easing or eliminating the VRA district requirement, and the NCSC will be majority Republican by the time this reaches them. The map will hold up.

The state suit happens first, not the federal one. Democrats would be stupid to sue in federal court, and there's no removal if the suit is based on the state constitution.

Yes, but as I also pointed out, the full NCSC will probably not rule on this until after 2022 when it will likely have a GOP majority. So both avenues are fruitless.

Why would you think it would take that long? The NC SC will rule in late 2021, or at the latest early 2022. Even if you assume the Republicans win, the court election isn't until Nov. 2022 and the change in office not until Jan. 1, 2023. In any event, I don't think it's certain at all that all of the Republicans on the NC SC would vote to overturn their precedents on partisan gerrymandering.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #539 on: October 06, 2021, 04:36:46 PM »
« Edited: October 06, 2021, 05:14:27 PM by lfromnj »

Why are people assuming this map is going to get struck down at all lmao

This proposal is playing with fire regarding racial gerrymandering, and the North Carolina Supreme Court is 4D-3R

A federal suit’s likely result would be SCOTUS easing or eliminating the VRA district requirement, and the NCSC will be majority Republican by the time this reaches them. The map will hold up.

The state suit happens first, not the federal one. Democrats would be stupid to sue in federal court, and there's no removal if the suit is based on the state constitution.

Yes, but as I also pointed out, the full NCSC will probably not rule on this until after 2022 when it will likely have a GOP majority. So both avenues are fruitless.

Why would you think it would take that long? The NC SC will rule in late 2021, or at the latest early 2022. Even if you assume the Republicans win, the court election isn't until Nov. 2022 and the change in office not until Jan. 1, 2023. In any event, I don't think it's certain at all that all of the Republicans on the NC SC would vote to overturn their precedents on partisan gerrymandering.

Pretty sure sure the NC Democrats on the court just made up some stuff just like the PA court did about gerrymandering. Not sure why NC R's would be very likely to keep some random standard made up.

(Note same applies in the opposite direction to the Oregon court/Florida court/IL court for legislative maps where all these states actually do have standards but the courts have or will likely ignore them.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #540 on: October 06, 2021, 04:39:45 PM »

are those whole county CDs within proper deviation?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #541 on: October 06, 2021, 04:49:03 PM »

Also just noticed that they seem to want NC01 to reach the 70% counties on the coast but also exclude Dare county. Dare is the whitest county in that area but its only mildly Republican. It even voted for gay marriage in 2012.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #542 on: October 06, 2021, 04:50:04 PM »

Why are people assuming this map is going to get struck down at all lmao

This proposal is playing with fire regarding racial gerrymandering, and the North Carolina Supreme Court is 4D-3R

A federal suit’s likely result would be SCOTUS easing or eliminating the VRA district requirement, and the NCSC will be majority Republican by the time this reaches them. The map will hold up.
None of this is true at all and assuming it is is one of the most hackish things I've ever seen.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #543 on: October 06, 2021, 04:58:18 PM »

Why are people assuming this map is going to get struck down at all lmao

This proposal is playing with fire regarding racial gerrymandering, and the North Carolina Supreme Court is 4D-3R

A federal suit’s likely result would be SCOTUS easing or eliminating the VRA district requirement, and the NCSC will be majority Republican by the time this reaches them. The map will hold up.

The state suit happens first, not the federal one. Democrats would be stupid to sue in federal court, and there's no removal if the suit is based on the state constitution.

Yes, but as I also pointed out, the full NCSC will probably not rule on this until after 2022 when it will likely have a GOP majority. So both avenues are fruitless.

If an 11-3 map is upheld that's just more ammunition for Democrats to pass a national reform for redistricting and maybe make all the states redraw their maps.   

The way Republicans are playing with the debt ceiling, ending the filibuster is looking more and more likely nowadays.

I don't think it's as "hopeless" as you describe here though.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #544 on: October 06, 2021, 04:59:37 PM »

Why are people assuming this map is going to get struck down at all lmao

This proposal is playing with fire regarding racial gerrymandering, and the North Carolina Supreme Court is 4D-3R

A federal suit’s likely result would be SCOTUS easing or eliminating the VRA district requirement, and the NCSC will be majority Republican by the time this reaches them. The map will hold up.

The state suit happens first, not the federal one. Democrats would be stupid to sue in federal court, and there's no removal if the suit is based on the state constitution.

Yes, but as I also pointed out, the full NCSC will probably not rule on this until after 2022 when it will likely have a GOP majority. So both avenues are fruitless.

Why would you think it would take that long? The NC SC will rule in late 2021, or at the latest early 2022. Even if you assume the Republicans win, the court election isn't until Nov. 2022 and the change in office not until Jan. 1, 2023. In any event, I don't think it's certain at all that all of the Republicans on the NC SC would vote to overturn their precedents on partisan gerrymandering.

Because can’t the Chief Justice hold up the case? The dude seems like a pretty right wing justice
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #545 on: October 06, 2021, 05:51:15 PM »

Why are people assuming this map is going to get struck down at all lmao

This proposal is playing with fire regarding racial gerrymandering, and the North Carolina Supreme Court is 4D-3R

A federal suit’s likely result would be SCOTUS easing or eliminating the VRA district requirement, and the NCSC will be majority Republican by the time this reaches them. The map will hold up.

The state suit happens first, not the federal one. Democrats would be stupid to sue in federal court, and there's no removal if the suit is based on the state constitution.

Yes, but as I also pointed out, the full NCSC will probably not rule on this until after 2022 when it will likely have a GOP majority. So both avenues are fruitless.

Why would you think it would take that long? The NC SC will rule in late 2021, or at the latest early 2022. Even if you assume the Republicans win, the court election isn't until Nov. 2022 and the change in office not until Jan. 1, 2023. In any event, I don't think it's certain at all that all of the Republicans on the NC SC would vote to overturn their precedents on partisan gerrymandering.

Because can’t the Chief Justice hold up the case? The dude seems like a pretty right wing justice

And as is usual in NC there is bad blood. He was the most senior associate justice and normally that would mean he would have been appointed by the governor as Chief, but as he was the sole Republican Cooper stiffed him. He then gave up his seat to challenge the Chief Justice probably ensuring the court was 4-3 D not 5-2.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #546 on: October 06, 2021, 05:52:00 PM »

When will you all learn to not have hope?
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S019
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« Reply #547 on: October 06, 2021, 06:25:24 PM »

That's definitely 11-3,  I doubt cracking NC-1 would survive in the court.   

Weird they're putting Watauga into NC-11 though.

Cracking NC-6 was expected all along,  NC Republicans and all.

Uh in that image it looks like NC-6 survives though you have to look closely

No, we have Youtube videos of the NC leg stream where this came from, they took Greensboro out of the 6th and shoved into some rural seat

Link?

Well they privatized them, probably because they didn't want Dems going back into them and finding material for a lawsuit, but that's where this person got the map from, you have to watch it in real time.
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Vern
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« Reply #548 on: October 06, 2021, 09:21:23 PM »
« Edited: October 06, 2021, 09:33:18 PM by Vern »



No, not at all. I did the map in DRA and it is wildly off in a lot of districts. If I had to guess, this is a starting point and they will play with the numbers.

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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #549 on: October 06, 2021, 11:31:46 PM »


I made an NC map that could function as both a fair-proportional and a fair-non-partisan map.
1, 4, 6, 12, and 13 are the Democratic districts, while 2, 3, 5, 8, 10, and 11 are the Republican ones. 7, 9, and 14 are swingy; 7 is trending R but still is quite winnable for Dems, 9 is lean GOP but increasingly winnable for Dems, and 14 is trending D and soon might count as a full-blown Dem district.
7 is a new majority-minority district. 2 is anchored in coastal counties such as Onslow and New Hanover, while 3 is a "leftovers seat". 9 is a dedicated suburban seat. 10, 8, and 14 mix suburban and rural.
Trump won 8 of these seats, Cooper also won 8, and Burr won 7.
DRA link
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