North Carolina 2020 Redistricting
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Author Topic: North Carolina 2020 Redistricting  (Read 84668 times)
Sol
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« Reply #475 on: July 03, 2021, 10:52:54 PM »


I believe he just barely lost it.
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« Reply #476 on: July 13, 2021, 06:43:01 PM »

I tried my hand at a fair 14-district map of North Carolina.


Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.08%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

62/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
68/100 on the Compactness Index
59/100 on County Splitting
72/100 on the Minority Representation index
24/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.



Partisan Breakdown by Election

2014 U.S. Senate Election in North Carolina: 8R to 6D

2016 North Carolina Attorney General Election: 8R to 6D

2016 U.S. Senate Election in North Carolina: 8R to 6D

2016 North Carolina Gubernatorial Election: 8R to 6D

2016 North Carolina Lieutenant Governor Election: 9R to 5D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in North Carolina: 8R to 6D

2020 North Carolina Attorney General Election: 8R to 6D

2020 U.S. Senate Election in North Carolina: 8R to 6D

2020 North Carolina Gubernatorial Election: 8R to 6D

2020 North Carolina Lieutenant Governor Election: 8R to 6D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in North Carolina: 8R to 6D



Opinions?
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #477 on: August 09, 2021, 02:57:27 PM »

The NC GOP has released a proposal of redistricting criteria for the upcoming session:

  • Equal Population - Acceptable range for a district's population is within +/- 5% of the ideal population
  • Contiguity - Districts must be contiguous, and water contiguity is sufficient
  • Counties, Groupings, and Traversals - legislative districts should be drawn within county groupings, and within these groupings, county lines should not be traversed except in a few cases. The congressional plan must only divide counties for the purposes of population equalization and consideration of double bunking. If a county is of sufficient population to contain a CD within its boundaries, a district must be made entirely within that county.
  • Racial data - Data identifying race will not be used as a factor when drawing districts
  • VTDs - voting districts should only be split when necessary
  • Compactness - a reasonable effort should be made to maintain compact districts, using as a guide the minimum Reock and Polsby-Popper scores
  • Municipal boundaries - municipal boundaries may be considered when drawing districts
  • Election data - Election results data and partisan considerations shall not be used in the drawing of districts
  • Incumbent member residence - Member residence may be considered when drawing districts
  • Communities of Interest - As long as a district plan complies with the other criteria, COIs may be considered in drawing districts

https://ncleg.gov/documentsites/committees/Senate2021-154/2021/08-09-2021/2021%20Joint%20Redistricting%20Committee%20Plan%20Proposed%20Criteria.pdf
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Nyvin
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« Reply #478 on: August 09, 2021, 03:52:07 PM »

The NC GOP has released a proposal of redistricting criteria for the upcoming session:

  • Equal Population - Acceptable range for a district's population is within +/- 5% of the ideal population
  • Contiguity - Districts must be contiguous, and water contiguity is sufficient
  • Counties, Groupings, and Traversals - legislative districts should be drawn within county groupings, and within these groupings, county lines should not be traversed except in a few cases. The congressional plan must only divide counties for the purposes of population equalization and consideration of double bunking. If a county is of sufficient population to contain a CD within its boundaries, a district must be made entirely within that county.
  • Racial data - Data identifying race will not be used as a factor when drawing districts
  • VTDs - voting districts should only be split when necessary
  • Compactness - a reasonable effort should be made to maintain compact districts, using as a guide the minimum Reock and Polsby-Popper scores
  • Municipal boundaries - municipal boundaries may be considered when drawing districts
  • Election data - Election results data and partisan considerations shall not be used in the drawing of districts
  • Incumbent member residence - Member residence may be considered when drawing districts
  • Communities of Interest - As long as a district plan complies with the other criteria, COIs may be considered in drawing districts
https://ncleg.gov/documentsites/committees/Senate2021-154/2021/08-09-2021/2021%20Joint%20Redistricting%20Committee%20Plan%20Proposed%20Criteria.pdf

So, does this pretty much exclude those Wake-to-Orange Dem vote sinks that I see all over the place from people?   I guess they can still do Miles Coleman's Guilford-to-Orange vote sink though.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #479 on: August 09, 2021, 05:40:25 PM »
« Edited: August 09, 2021, 05:53:36 PM by ProgressiveModerate »

The NC GOP has released a proposal of redistricting criteria for the upcoming session:

  • Equal Population - Acceptable range for a district's population is within +/- 5% of the ideal population
  • Contiguity - Districts must be contiguous, and water contiguity is sufficient
  • Counties, Groupings, and Traversals - legislative districts should be drawn within county groupings, and within these groupings, county lines should not be traversed except in a few cases. The congressional plan must only divide counties for the purposes of population equalization and consideration of double bunking. If a county is of sufficient population to contain a CD within its boundaries, a district must be made entirely within that county.
  • Racial data - Data identifying race will not be used as a factor when drawing districts
  • VTDs - voting districts should only be split when necessary
  • Compactness - a reasonable effort should be made to maintain compact districts, using as a guide the minimum Reock and Polsby-Popper scores
  • Municipal boundaries - municipal boundaries may be considered when drawing districts
  • Election data - Election results data and partisan considerations shall not be used in the drawing of districts
  • Incumbent member residence - Member residence may be considered when drawing districts
  • Communities of Interest - As long as a district plan complies with the other criteria, COIs may be considered in drawing districts
https://ncleg.gov/documentsites/committees/Senate2021-154/2021/08-09-2021/2021%20Joint%20Redistricting%20Committee%20Plan%20Proposed%20Criteria.pdf

So, does this pretty much exclude those Wake-to-Orange Dem vote sinks that I see all over the place from people?   I guess they can still do Miles Coleman's Guilford-to-Orange vote sink though.

If this becomes criteria, then yes, unless they draw a district entirely in Wake and they make a sink that combines the bit left over with Orange County.

This gives me a bit of hope we won't get a map that's too crazy, though it'll probably still end up being R slanted.

We could probably end up with a map simillar to the current one; not an extreme gerrymander but clearly drawn with partisan intentions that favors Rs.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #480 on: August 09, 2021, 07:29:00 PM »



If these new rules are actually applied, here's a map the GOP could still draw. The most notable thing is the fact that there needs to be a district entirely in Wake, which basically eliminates any chance of an 11 - 3 map. The other info around county splitting sounds pretty vague and using compactness as a "guideline" doesn't necessarily mean much.
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« Reply #481 on: August 09, 2021, 09:14:30 PM »

This map seems to fit the criteria quite well, right?
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #482 on: August 12, 2021, 01:04:50 PM »

Someone sent this map in a Discord I'm in, saying it's a leak of the draft NC map for 2022. I have no idea if it's legitimate or not, as they haven't provided a source.

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Sol
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« Reply #483 on: August 12, 2021, 01:12:21 PM »

Someone sent this map in a Discord I'm in, saying it's a leak of the draft NC map for 2022. I have no idea if it's legitimate or not, as they haven't provided a source.



Lol if that's their intended map, it's so sloppy in addition to being a gerrymander.

It doesn't seem that implausible though tbh, especially since Republicans in the NCGA appear to be misunderstanding the judicial decisions wrt: NC-01 and think that it can just be drawn any kind of way. NC-10 makes sense here too as a seat drawn explicitly for Tim Moore. And tbh the NC Republicans are kind of into being really sloppy at mapping.

The formatting also looks a lot like NCGA maps, not that that means anything.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #484 on: August 12, 2021, 01:13:22 PM »

Oh my god, that's hideous. How'd that 13th vote in 2020?
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #485 on: August 12, 2021, 01:17:53 PM »

Someone sent this map in a Discord I'm in, saying it's a leak of the draft NC map for 2022. I have no idea if it's legitimate or not, as they haven't provided a source.



Pretty sure that’d get struck down rather quickly
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #486 on: August 12, 2021, 01:22:42 PM »

Oh my god, that's hideous. How'd that 13th vote in 2020?
Based on my sloppy rendition I just whipped up in DRA, it would be about R+9 to R+11. Definitely not a safe seat by 2020 numbers.
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #487 on: August 12, 2021, 01:30:06 PM »

Oh my god, that's hideous. How'd that 13th vote in 2020?
Based on my sloppy rendition I just whipped up in DRA, it would be about R+9 to R+11. Definitely not a safe seat by 2020 numbers.

That's safe for North Carolina.
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Sol
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« Reply #488 on: August 12, 2021, 01:30:26 PM »

Someone sent this map in a Discord I'm in, saying it's a leak of the draft NC map for 2022. I have no idea if it's legitimate or not, as they haven't provided a source.



Pretty sure that’d get struck down rather quickly

That should be true--and it might would happen--but that district actually isn't too different from the current one in terms of racial composition because the rural white areas are plucked out in exchange for Chapel Hill and Durham.

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Nyvin
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« Reply #489 on: August 12, 2021, 02:20:15 PM »

Someone sent this map in a Discord I'm in, saying it's a leak of the draft NC map for 2022. I have no idea if it's legitimate or not, as they haven't provided a source.



Four districts in Wake and four in Mecklenburg.   Yeah.

The NC-6 looks to be like Trump+8-ish or so, and the NC-13 looks around Trump+9.   Doubt either of those hold for the decade.
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Vern
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« Reply #490 on: August 12, 2021, 04:28:45 PM »

Someone sent this map in a Discord I'm in, saying it's a leak of the draft NC map for 2022. I have no idea if it's legitimate or not, as they haven't provided a source.



Lol if that's their intended map, it's so sloppy in addition to being a gerrymander.

It doesn't seem that implausible though tbh, especially since Republicans in the NCGA appear to be misunderstanding the judicial decisions wrt: NC-01 and think that it can just be drawn any kind of way. NC-10 makes sense here too as a seat drawn explicitly for Tim Moore. And tbh the NC Republicans are kind of into being really sloppy at mapping.

The formatting also looks a lot like NCGA maps, not that that means anything.

I don't believe this is true. 
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Vern
vern1988
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« Reply #491 on: August 12, 2021, 05:37:27 PM »

Someone sent this map in a Discord I'm in, saying it's a leak of the draft NC map for 2022. I have no idea if it's legitimate or not, as they haven't provided a source.



Lol if that's their intended map, it's so sloppy in addition to being a gerrymander.

It doesn't seem that implausible though tbh, especially since Republicans in the NCGA appear to be misunderstanding the judicial decisions wrt: NC-01 and think that it can just be drawn any kind of way. NC-10 makes sense here too as a seat drawn explicitly for Tim Moore. And tbh the NC Republicans are kind of into being really sloppy at mapping.

The formatting also looks a lot like NCGA maps, not that that means anything.

I don't believe this is true. 

Also I tried to recreate this map, and it seems like they used very old population data.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #492 on: August 13, 2021, 05:25:39 PM »

Someone sent this map in a Discord I'm in, saying it's a leak of the draft NC map for 2022. I have no idea if it's legitimate or not, as they haven't provided a source.



Lol if that's their intended map, it's so sloppy in addition to being a gerrymander.

It doesn't seem that implausible though tbh, especially since Republicans in the NCGA appear to be misunderstanding the judicial decisions wrt: NC-01 and think that it can just be drawn any kind of way. NC-10 makes sense here too as a seat drawn explicitly for Tim Moore. And tbh the NC Republicans are kind of into being really sloppy at mapping.

The formatting also looks a lot like NCGA maps, not that that means anything.

I don't believe this is true. 

Also I tried to recreate this map, and it seems like they used very old population data.

For me it works out almost prfectly on 2019 data on DRA; it's just difficult to get the border between 4 and 14 and 9 and 12
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #493 on: August 13, 2021, 05:29:25 PM »

Oh my god, that's hideous. How'd that 13th vote in 2020?

I got about Trump + 7.8; definitively not safe.
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Vern
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« Reply #494 on: August 14, 2021, 11:29:38 AM »

Someone sent this map in a Discord I'm in, saying it's a leak of the draft NC map for 2022. I have no idea if it's legitimate or not, as they haven't provided a source.



Lol if that's their intended map, it's so sloppy in addition to being a gerrymander.

It doesn't seem that implausible though tbh, especially since Republicans in the NCGA appear to be misunderstanding the judicial decisions wrt: NC-01 and think that it can just be drawn any kind of way. NC-10 makes sense here too as a seat drawn explicitly for Tim Moore. And tbh the NC Republicans are kind of into being really sloppy at mapping.

The formatting also looks a lot like NCGA maps, not that that means anything.

I don't believe this is true. 

Also I tried to recreate this map, and it seems like they used very old population data.

For me it works out almost prfectly on 2019 data on DRA; it's just difficult to get the border between 4 and 14 and 9 and 12


One thing I noticed is this map puts to incumbents in District one. I doubt they would do that
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Vern
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« Reply #495 on: August 14, 2021, 11:48:53 AM »




https://davesredistricting.org/join/944c5502-3400-438b-99e0-b1cc765d6f59

My Fair map: it makes 5-5-4 with 2 leaning Dem and 2 leaning Rep. So pretty much a 7-7 map
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #496 on: August 14, 2021, 11:51:17 AM »




https://davesredistricting.org/join/944c5502-3400-438b-99e0-b1cc765d6f59

My Fair map: it makes 5-5-4 with 2 leaning Dem and 2 leaning Rep. So pretty much a 7-7 map
I like it.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #497 on: August 27, 2021, 03:52:11 PM »



Here's a 11-3 NC map that follows the rules. I tried to make all the Trump district a pretty well balanced mix of suburbs, small towns, and rural areas, so that they will be a bit less elastic
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #498 on: August 28, 2021, 01:32:58 PM »



I've hit a bit of an impasse when trying to draw state house districts. The state uses county groupings to theoretically help prevent gerrymandering and ugly, stringy districts. If a county can fully contain one or more districts within it, it cannot be divided. Counties that are too small or are outside the acceptable bounds for districts (for example, a county with 150,000 people is too big for one district but too small for two) are put into county groupings, trying to maximize the number of two-county pairs, then maximizing three-county pairs, ect. However, I don't know how to actually go about doing this. The blue, non-contiguous counties are counties that fully contain their districts, all the other colors are possible pairs that contain one or more pairings. I've tried going by hand and seeing what possible combinations of the 31 possible pairings work without overlapping or otherwise breaking the system, but this is both time consuming and inefficient. Does anyone know of a way to test what works and what doesn't without going one-by-one through the possible options? I've been enjoying messing around with what I can, but this just becomes tedious.

A "Stephenson" explainer
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #499 on: September 01, 2021, 04:24:03 PM »

Here are the dates and times for public hearings on the redistricting process in North Carolina.

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