North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[lfromnj]

Didn't realize it but in a fair map(and not the incumbent protection/ local D gerrymander as currently) Buncombe county Ds are pretty badly distributed.  The County is exactly 3 state house seats and one would be a very D Asheville seat and then there would be 2 Tilt R east and west suburban seats that are both Trump +5 in 2016 although I imagine Biden won both.



Not super harmful for Democrats to win a majority in the state house but still hurts them and is probably a major reason  why the local legislative gerrymander's  might continue but the GOP can draw some 10-4 map congressionally.

[Nyvin]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c23ca130-9d40-4d61-ac9d-64dc93727eda

[Pink Panther]

Here is a 10-4 R GOP gerrymander map of NC.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5124686f-d182-4bef-8cca-f835c145202e

That's probably racial gerrymandering.

[Vern]

This is an 8-6 Democratic map that I feel like isn't crazy.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::998ace71-3bb5-487d-8544-e5378ca716f6

[lfromnj]

https://www.carolinajournal.com/news-article/its-official-14th-congressional-seat-coming-to-n-c-whats-next/


https://twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1386845242217861123

It was deleted within the article but I saw it myself before it was changed.

[Vern]

Look one of my Maps made the NC page!! Its the new nc one under most proportional.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Look one of my Maps made the NC page!! Its the new nc one under most proportional.

Congrats!

[Storr]

https://www.carolinajournal.com/news-article/its-official-14th-congressional-seat-coming-to-n-c-whats-next/


https://twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1386845242217861123

It was deleted within the article but I saw it myself before it was changed.

I wonder why it was deleted. But anyway, I've said it before and I'll say it again: if the Triad (Greensboro, Winston-Salem, and High Point; Manning's 6th district covers most of it) isn't a CoI, then I don't know what is.

[Sol]

Didn't realize it but in a fair map(and not the incumbent protection/ local D gerrymander as currently) Buncombe county Ds are pretty badly distributed.  The County is exactly 3 state house seats and one would be a very D Asheville seat and then there would be 2 Tilt R east and west suburban seats that are both Trump +5 in 2016 although I imagine Biden won both.



Not super harmful for Democrats to win a majority in the state house but still hurts them and is probably a major reason  why the local legislative gerrymander's  might continue but the GOP can draw some 10-4 map congressionally.

The current map I believe was imposed by the state court a few years ago--before then there was one Asheville district and two outer districts, but dems had all three anyway.

[Vern]

So, since Republican control redistricting, what do you think the map will look like.

[lfromnj]

So, since Republican control redistricting, what do you think the map will look like.

On Average 9-4-1? They do have a limit on top by the court. A 10-4 involves  Greensboro to Chapel hill, Raleigh sink and Durham with Black belt.

9-4-1 is either make a tossup seat out of Greensboro by tossing in Randolph and other red areas in central NC or push the Black belt seat rightwards.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, since Republican control redistricting, what do you think the map will look like.

Either 9-4-1 or 9-5. Either is possible.

[Sol]

I made a rough pass at a 10-4 map:



link

This map is uglier than it should be, because there are incumbent considerations at work--Hudson, McHenry, Adams, and Bishop all live quite close together and need to get their own districts--plus Tim Moore might want his own district based in Cleveland County.

Here's a cleaner alternative:



link

[Brittain33]

Which are the Democratic districts? Obviously Charlotte, Durham, and Raleigh, but I can't judge whether NC-1 or Greensboro is now R.

[Sol]

Which are the Democratic districts? Obviously Charlotte, Durham, and Raleigh, but I can't judge whether NC-1 or Greensboro is now R.

NC-01 is Dem--the 6th is a narrowly McRory 2016 district.

[Mr.Phips]

I made a rough pass at a 10-4 map:



link

This map is uglier than it should be, because there are incumbent considerations at work--Hudson, McHenry, Adams, and Bishop all live quite close together and need to get their own districts--plus Tim Moore might want his own district based in Cleveland County.

Here's a cleaner alternative:



link

That green district looks suspiciously similar to what was done in the prior gerrymander that led to the map eventually getting thrown out by the state Supreme Court.  Even if the court flips back to Republicans in 2022, it could easily flip back to Dems later in the decade and result in something like a 7-7 map getting forced.

[Sol]

Who cares though? Still earns you a term or two in the worse case scenario.

[Vern]

This is a fair map that I would be fine with. *Note, the numbers below are 2020 numbers*




https://davesredistricting.org/join/53ea3d0c-b25d-45bd-aad3-f1fc432eda4e

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is a fair map that I would be fine with. *Note, the numbers below are 2020 numbers*




https://davesredistricting.org/join/53ea3d0c-b25d-45bd-aad3-f1fc432eda4e

Biden vs Trump numbers, presumably?
Very nice map, btw.

[Sol]

It's not great CoI in my opinion to draw the Charlotte district out of Mecklenburg County, or to slice up the Triangle in that way, which kind of looks like Democratic gerrymander.

[Sol]

Here's a rough pass at a fair map.

link

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Bumping this so I can find it easier when I get home and post by 9-5 Democratic map

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

and behold... my masterpiece. 9 Democrats to 5 Republicans in North Carolina. The map shown uses composite but ever district voted for the same party in every election Dave's has rn

Also there are *Three* minority seats

[Nyvin]

Here's something resembling a least change map, aside from the god awful 5-10-13 configuration on the current map.







Raleigh+Cary is almost exactly 1 district.   Both NC-1 and NC-12 are 46.1% BVAP,  NC-6 is 35.9% BVAP.

NC-14 would be a swing district, I'd assume it's Trump16-Biden20.   So it's probably a 8-5-1 map overall (for now at least).

If the NCGOP were reasonable this would be a map they'd be happy with.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c23ca130-9d40-4d61-ac9d-64dc93727eda

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Here's a rough pass at a fair map.

link

Did Biden win your NC-14?