North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Vern]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b8c66314-894f-4281-acd7-cc66dc6e3bb6

This is my fair map for NC. It's a 6R-6D and 2 Even

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ed5b1056-1df4-4243-85e9-fbbc927477a3
this is a fair map based off 2010 data (outdated, I know)
Effort was taken to minimize county splits.
Chapel Hill and Durham were separated for compactness and to preserve the whole-county NC-13 in central NC.
A new 14th district is made that covers most of Wake County.
The 9th becomes mostly centered Charlotte McMansion suburbs and exurbs, and its eastern territory is lost to the 8th, which is now D-leaning and maj-min, with a sizable Lumbee population.
Compactness is fairly decent on this map, as is keeping CoI such as counties together. But it is not really as useful for 2020 as it otherwise would have been otherwise due to it using 2010 numbers.

[Vern]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ed5b1056-1df4-4243-85e9-fbbc927477a3
this is a fair map based off 2010 data (outdated, I know)
Effort was taken to minimize county splits.
Chapel Hill and Durham were separated for compactness and to preserve the whole-county NC-13 in central NC.
A new 14th district is made that covers most of Wake County.
The 9th becomes mostly centered Charlotte McMansion suburbs and exurbs, and its eastern territory is lost to the 8th, which is now D-leaning and maj-min, with a sizable Lumbee population.
Compactness is fairly decent on this map, as is keeping CoI such as counties together. But it is not really as useful for 2020 as it otherwise would have been otherwise due to it using 2010 numbers.

That is a good map. I would love see it using the updated 2018 data.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ed5b1056-1df4-4243-85e9-fbbc927477a3
this is a fair map based off 2010 data (outdated, I know)
Effort was taken to minimize county splits.
Chapel Hill and Durham were separated for compactness and to preserve the whole-county NC-13 in central NC.
A new 14th district is made that covers most of Wake County.
The 9th becomes mostly centered Charlotte McMansion suburbs and exurbs, and its eastern territory is lost to the 8th, which is now D-leaning and maj-min, with a sizable Lumbee population.
Compactness is fairly decent on this map, as is keeping CoI such as counties together. But it is not really as useful for 2020 as it otherwise would have been otherwise due to it using 2010 numbers.

That is a good map. I would love see it using the updated 2018 data.

I've enabled all the possible data sets for viewing on the map. If you reload I think they would show up now?
And should I try to make an updated 2018 pop version of it?

[Vern]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ed5b1056-1df4-4243-85e9-fbbc927477a3
this is a fair map based off 2010 data (outdated, I know)
Effort was taken to minimize county splits.
Chapel Hill and Durham were separated for compactness and to preserve the whole-county NC-13 in central NC.
A new 14th district is made that covers most of Wake County.
The 9th becomes mostly centered Charlotte McMansion suburbs and exurbs, and its eastern territory is lost to the 8th, which is now D-leaning and maj-min, with a sizable Lumbee population.
Compactness is fairly decent on this map, as is keeping CoI such as counties together. But it is not really as useful for 2020 as it otherwise would have been otherwise due to it using 2010 numbers.

That is a good map. I would love see it using the updated 2018 data.

I've enabled all the possible data sets for viewing on the map. If you reload I think they would show up now?
And should I try to make an updated 2018 pop version of it?

Yes, that worked! I can work on an updated one.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ed5b1056-1df4-4243-85e9-fbbc927477a3
this is a fair map based off 2010 data (outdated, I know)
Effort was taken to minimize county splits.
Chapel Hill and Durham were separated for compactness and to preserve the whole-county NC-13 in central NC.
A new 14th district is made that covers most of Wake County.
The 9th becomes mostly centered Charlotte McMansion suburbs and exurbs, and its eastern territory is lost to the 8th, which is now D-leaning and maj-min, with a sizable Lumbee population.
Compactness is fairly decent on this map, as is keeping CoI such as counties together. But it is not really as useful for 2020 as it otherwise would have been otherwise due to it using 2010 numbers.

That is a good map. I would love see it using the updated 2018 data.

I've enabled all the possible data sets for viewing on the map. If you reload I think they would show up now?
And should I try to make an updated 2018 pop version of it?

Yes, that worked! I can work on an updated one.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ec158509-ff02-438d-94df-c067b8de5a98
I made an updated one but I also enjoy seeing what your version of an updated one looks like. Compare and contrast and such...

[Vern]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a2b4d6c0-db04-4591-a73c-bed067f75a15
This is mine

[Vern]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ed5b1056-1df4-4243-85e9-fbbc927477a3
this is a fair map based off 2010 data (outdated, I know)
Effort was taken to minimize county splits.
Chapel Hill and Durham were separated for compactness and to preserve the whole-county NC-13 in central NC.
A new 14th district is made that covers most of Wake County.
The 9th becomes mostly centered Charlotte McMansion suburbs and exurbs, and its eastern territory is lost to the 8th, which is now D-leaning and maj-min, with a sizable Lumbee population.
Compactness is fairly decent on this map, as is keeping CoI such as counties together. But it is not really as useful for 2020 as it otherwise would have been otherwise due to it using 2010 numbers.

That is a good map. I would love see it using the updated 2018 data.

I've enabled all the possible data sets for viewing on the map. If you reload I think they would show up now?
And should I try to make an updated 2018 pop version of it?

Yes, that worked! I can work on an updated one.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ec158509-ff02-438d-94df-c067b8de5a98
I made an updated one but I also enjoy seeing what your version of an updated one looks like. Compare and contrast and such...

[Oryxslayer]

You guys care to explain why you are sending NC01 into Durham? That was ruled as a gerrymander in December, especially since AAs can get their candidate of preference fine using only the belt counties. If you really need more AAs for partisan safety, east non-Raleigh wake is readily available and closer to the belt.

[EastAnglianLefty]

This is what I came up with: https://davesredistricting.org/join/c97e624d-8fd5-4448-8fe4-ea91e60f8eb4

I'm not sure who would draw this, as I doubt any political actor would like it. Possibly a citizens' commission?

Most of the elements are pretty familiar from other maps. The distinctive bits are having separate seats for Winston-Salem (safely Republican) and Greensboro (swing seat) and trying to keep the 5th away from both Charlotte and the Piedmont Triad, so that it's primarily a Catawba Valley seat instead.

It's a 4D-8R-2 swing map, but both of the swing districts voted for Clinton and at least one is trending blue, so it would have no appeal to the Republicans.

[Vern]

You guys care to explain why you are sending NC01 into Durham? That was ruled as a gerrymander in December, especially since AAs can get their candidate of preference fine using only the belt counties. If you really need more AAs for partisan safety, east non-Raleigh wake is readily available and closer to the belt.

I was using His map. This is my fair map: https://davesredistricting.org/join/b8c66314-894f-4281-acd7-cc66dc6e3bb6

[Sol]

This is what I came up with: https://davesredistricting.org/join/c97e624d-8fd5-4448-8fe4-ea91e60f8eb4

I'm not sure who would draw this, as I doubt any political actor would like it. Possibly a citizens' commission?

Most of the elements are pretty familiar from other maps. The distinctive bits are having separate seats for Winston-Salem (safely Republican) and Greensboro (swing seat) and trying to keep the 5th away from both Charlotte and the Piedmont Triad, so that it's primarily a Catawba Valley seat instead.

It's a 4D-8R-2 swing map, but both of the swing districts voted for Clinton and at least one is trending blue, so it would have no appeal to the Republicans.

That's a great map! I'd maybe trade some territory in the Nothern part of the 7th in exchange for unifying Pender (which is pretty Wilmington-oriented) but this is a very nice map! I especially enjoy the thoughtfulness of keeping RTP together.

[Sol]

You guys care to explain why you are sending NC01 into Durham? That was ruled as a gerrymander in December, especially since AAs can get their candidate of preference fine using only the belt counties. If you really need more AAs for partisan safety, east non-Raleigh wake is readily available and closer to the belt.

I was using His map. This is my fair map: https://davesredistricting.org/join/b8c66314-894f-4281-acd7-cc66dc6e3bb6

Why the ugly 14th?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You guys care to explain why you are sending NC01 into Durham? That was ruled as a gerrymander in December, especially since AAs can get their candidate of preference fine using only the belt counties. If you really need more AAs for partisan safety, east non-Raleigh wake is readily available and closer to the belt.

NC-01 was sent into Durham because of the districts I had in Central NC were whole-county and I didn't want to disturb that.
In the updated map, it was because I didn't want to deviate too much from the original.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a0e07306-4fda-4c60-b44d-f9ac7a4e4ba1
I went out of the box with this one.
Distinctive elements:
the 12th is rooted in southern rather than northern Mecklenburg
Unlike most maps here the 6th has some of Forsyth and all of Guildford instead of vice versa
There are more swing districts
Semi-competitive R+5 CD in SE NC taking in New Hanover, Columbus, Brunswick, Bladen, Sampson, Robeson, Hoke, and Scotland counties

[Sol]

Here's a subtle GOP gerry, with the idea being avoiding court intervention with a relatively compact map.



NC-01, NC-02, NC-04, and NC-12 are safe D, while NC-14 is a D-leaning seat. NC-06 is very likely R, while NC-13 is safe R now but might move more towards the Democrats over the decade.

The one downside of this map is that it screws over Budd, who's double-bunked with McHenry. He might could primary Foxx or run in the 6th though.

[Storr]

Here's a subtle GOP gerry, with the idea being avoiding court intervention with a relatively compact map.



NC-01, NC-02, NC-04, and NC-12 are safe D, while NC-14 is a D-leaning seat. NC-06 is very likely R, while NC-13 is safe R now but might move more towards the Democrats over the decade.

The one downside of this map is that it screws over Budd, who's double-bunked with McHenry. He might could primary Foxx or run in the 6th though.

Splitting Guilford County three ways isn't subtle imo.

But thank you for getting rid of the NC-08 and 09 bacon strips. The light blue Union to Gaston district with a strip in South Charlotte is pretty ugly, but at least it's all in areas of the same metro area, unlike the aforementioned current strips. 

[Sol]

Here's a subtle GOP gerry, with the idea being avoiding court intervention with a relatively compact map.



NC-01, NC-02, NC-04, and NC-12 are safe D, while NC-14 is a D-leaning seat. NC-06 is very likely R, while NC-13 is safe R now but might move more towards the Democrats over the decade.

The one downside of this map is that it screws over Budd, who's double-bunked with McHenry. He might could primary Foxx or run in the 6th though.

Splitting Guilford County three ways isn't subtle imo.

But thank you for getting rid of the NC-08 and 09 bacon strips. The light blue Union to Gaston district with a strip in South Charlotte is pretty ugly, but at least it's all in areas of the same metro area, unlike the aforementioned current strips. 

You could probably go into Stanly/Montgomery or Rockingham.

[Skill and Chance]

If the current 6/1 Dem majority on the state supreme court holds, they will likely just impose their preferred map no matter what.  If it falls to 4D/3R, they probably won't intervene unless it's something as egregious as the 2011 map. 

[JerryArkansas]

If the current 6/1 Dem majority on the state supreme court holds, they will likely just impose their preferred map no matter what.  If it falls to 4D/3R, they probably won't intervene unless it's something as egregious as the 2011 map. 

There's a greater chance of it going 7-0 than 4-3, but even a court like that would likely step in on most maps.

[Nyvin]

Here's a relatively clean map.



1 is 46.7% AA CVAP

9 is 37.2% AA CVAP

11 is 45.3% AA CVAP

1 and 11 would definitely be functional minority seats, 9 most likely would be an opportunity seat.

Probably is 8 Safe R, 5 Safe D, and 1 tossup (NC-7) to start, but over the decade NC-4, NC-10, and NC-14 would all be trending D.   By 2022 NC-4 might already be a tossup actually.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1daa5814-bfa4-4b55-b77b-6f3f3c9825e8

[lfromnj]

Butterfield might need Durham back, in some deal or so considering he is only up by 8 points. I think a 9-5 map is probably what happens. NC D's look likely to take a net of -1 in the state supreme court and possibly -2 to a total of 4-3.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Butterfield might need Durham back, in some deal or so considering he is only up by 8 points. I think a 9-5 map is probably what happens. NC D's look likely to take a net of -1 in the state supreme court and possibly -2 to a total of 4-3.

Nah, this was just a weird year.  Butterfield will be fine.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Butterfield might need Durham back, in some deal or so considering he is only up by 8 points. I think a 9-5 map is probably what happens. NC D's look likely to take a net of -1 in the state supreme court and possibly -2 to a total of 4-3.

Not good enough. If we don't win the senate and pass hr 1 dem courts need to enforce as many d leaning maps as possible.

[Sol]

If there's a concern about Butterfield you could also draw something like this, pronging into Raleigh instead of Durham.



It has the advantage of relieving the pressure on ENC, thereby allowing for more logical districts--though obviously it's still not optimal. Eastern Wake County is also getting a good bit Blacker, which might help too if there are concerns about a decline in minority communities in the Northeast.