North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Here's a mostly clean NC map.

You realize the purpose of the court order is to "undo" the current partisan gerrymander...correct?

Its a much better map though then many of those posted so far in this thread. You can make some small shifts and turn 2 or 3 of those Republican seats into swings and do some shifts in the Triad to create a solid D seat there.


A lot of the so called "fair" maps posted so far in this thread, focus on getting the numbers right and yet preserve some of the most egregious aspects of the current map, like stretching 9th out to the Sandhills, putting Johnston in with Wilmington etc.

[Tintrlvr]

Here's a mostly clean NC map.

You realize the purpose of the court order is to "undo" the current partisan gerrymander...correct?

Its a much better map though then many of those posted so far in this thread. You can make some small shifts and turn 2 or 3 of those Republican seats into swings and do some shifts in the Triad to create a solid D seat there.


A lot of the so called "fair" maps posted so far in this thread, focus on getting the numbers right and yet preserve some of the most egregious aspects of the current map, like stretching 9th out to the Sandhills, putting Johnston in with Wilmington etc.

Not sure what the problem with the 9th district including the Sandhills is. Stretching from Charlotte to the Sandhills is a problem, but there are zero Charlotte-Sandhills maps posted on this thread so far... except for the one from nerd73 that you just praised (which also keeps the problem in the current map of splitting the Sandhills down the middle). Most of the maps have been pairing the Sandhills with Fayetteville, which is pretty natural, and pulling that district entirely out of the Charlotte metro.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mel_bough/status/1191806197294350336

Don't like the Greensboro/Winston-Salem and Fayetteville regions one bit. On the other hand, that 11th seems like it was drawn by a Democrat looking for a potential pickup.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/mel_bough/status/1191806197294350336

Don't like the Greensboro/Winston-Salem and Fayetteville regions one bit. On the other hand, that 11th seems like it was drawn by a Democrat looking for a potential pickup.

Splitting Hoke/Robeson from Scotland/Richmond/Anson is a problem, too, and the arm up to Watauga is a mess, although it doesn't really matter from a partisan perspective. This doesn't seem like a good map, or, honestly, a nonpartisan one.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Here's a mostly clean NC map.

You realize the purpose of the court order is to "undo" the current partisan gerrymander...correct?

Its a much better map though then many of those posted so far in this thread. You can make some small shifts and turn 2 or 3 of those Republican seats into swings and do some shifts in the Triad to create a solid D seat there.


A lot of the so called "fair" maps posted so far in this thread, focus on getting the numbers right and yet preserve some of the most egregious aspects of the current map, like stretching 9th out to the Sandhills, putting Johnston in with Wilmington etc.

Not sure what the problem with the 9th district including the Sandhills is. Stretching from Charlotte to the Sandhills is a problem, but there are zero Charlotte-Sandhills maps posted on this thread so far... except for the one from nerd73 that you just praised (which also keeps the problem in the current map of splitting the Sandhills down the middle). Most of the maps have been pairing the Sandhills with Fayetteville, which is pretty natural, and pulling that district entirely out of the Charlotte metro.

Aside from generic partisan excess, the GOP maps (with exceptions like the first map in cases like the 9th) have three major problems, that should be completely avoided
1. Asheville being taken out of the 11th
2. Putting Johnston in with Wilmington
3. Stretching the 9th out to Fayetteville.

I would much rather split the Sandhills then have two districts running parallel to each other between Charlotte and Fayetteville.

Nerds map is better because it doesn't engage in any of this, it also creates a better looking and more competitive 7th in SE NC, where it always was and should have been before the Republicans messed with it to get rid of Mike McIntyre.


Nerd's map needs modifications obviously. 13th should be a Dem seat in the Triad. Two of the following four (NC-02, NC-06, NC-07 and NC-08, should and could be turned into close swing seats. Pushing 13th North to make it Democratic, sheds some of its Southern territory to the 9th, pulling it back Westward and making it more Charlotte centric. You can then shift its Eastern territory to the 8th or 7th and use Fayetteville to turn one of the 7th or 8th into a swing seat. You can do the same with the 2nd or Sixth by shifting some territory in the Triangle area. 

Such a map would be better than any of the GOP maps and better than the Dem gerrymander that came before it.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/mel_bough/status/1191806197294350336

Don't like the Greensboro/Winston-Salem and Fayetteville regions one bit. On the other hand, that 11th seems like it was drawn by a Democrat looking for a potential pickup.

Not terrible, but definitely room for improvement.   NC-6 has a lot of county splits.   NC-8 is definitely a swing district with maybe a small D lean.  

I'm pretty sure the second safe D seat in the triangle area is inevitable.  

This is still only a 8R-4D-1s map though,  not ideal.

Looks like the NCGOP is trying to get the committee to use this as the base map for when they start the drawing.   NC Dems seem to want to start from scratch.

[cvparty]

https://twitter.com/mel_bough/status/1191806197294350336

Don't like the Greensboro/Winston-Salem and Fayetteville regions one bit. On the other hand, that 11th seems like it was drawn by a Democrat looking for a potential pickup.

Splitting Hoke/Robeson from Scotland/Richmond/Anson is a problem, too, and the arm up to Watauga is a mess, although it doesn't really matter from a partisan perspective. This doesn't seem like a good map, or, honestly, a nonpartisan one.

NC-11 actually makes sense if you look at a topographic map of the state (mountains)

[Sol]

https://twitter.com/mel_bough/status/1191806197294350336

Don't like the Greensboro/Winston-Salem and Fayetteville regions one bit. On the other hand, that 11th seems like it was drawn by a Democrat looking for a potential pickup.

Splitting Hoke/Robeson from Scotland/Richmond/Anson is a problem, too, and the arm up to Watauga is a mess, although it doesn't really matter from a partisan perspective. This doesn't seem like a good map, or, honestly, a nonpartisan one.

NC-11 actually makes sense if you look at a topographic map of the state (mountains)

You can actually draw a whole county version--it's the same as the commissioners but minus McDowell and plus Ashe and Alleghany.

Apparently the commissioners were concerned that that NC-11 would be too long and disjunct for them. Although the whole county NC-11 is my personal preference, I can understand that argument--the High Country is not that connected to Asheville and in some respects looks more towards Winston-Salem.

[Sol]

NCYankee, what do you think of these districts?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

They look nice in isolation but it depends on what you are going for in that area and how it affects the rest of the map.

[Vern]

https://twitter.com/mel_bough/status/1191806197294350336
Don't like the Greensboro/Winston-Salem and Fayetteville regions one bit. On the other hand, that 11th seems like it was drawn by a Democrat looking for a potential pickup.

So I tried my best to get this right.


Look at the tweet map for the district numbers.

CD-1: D+5
CD-2: R+12
CD-3: R+6
CD-4: R+4
CD-5: D+9
CD-6: D+14
CD-7: R+13
CD-8: Even
CD-9: R+10
CD-10: R+21
CD-11: R+8
CD-12: R+12
CD-13: D+15

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It should be noted there is a good chance if a court draws the maps that the numbers get reworked in a East to West pattern like PA was.

[Vern]

So when should we get a new map?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1192169430702276610

Redistricting Livestream. At this moment, I'm seeing a Johnston to Wilmington seat so...yikes.

[Nyvin]

Not joking, their current map so far looks a lot like mine (excluding a few areas) -



NC-9 (teal district) losing Union County is a HUGE win if that makes it through.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's where the map stands right now at the end of the day. Of course  work will still continue but...this map is somehow worse then the previous preliminary one!

- Cracked Sandhills
- Separated Greensboro/Winston-Salem
- Raleigh seat that goes beyond Wake
- Parallel central districts
- First missing Greenville (they want to protect the  incumbent)
- No Boone for the 11th
- Johnson to Wilmington was clearly an option but it was dropped to carve up the sandhill region
- Seats are renumbered going E -> W, but this 4 and 7...

According to Stephan Wolfe, the GOP did something similar to that NC state senator from last time and whispered for half an hour while they carved up that neat sandhill seat you posted Nyvin.

If this style of map ends up as the final product, I suspect we will get the courts or special masters involved. The GOP employed their traditional "support AA caucus, lessen overall dem power" when drawing the state legislative maps. This plus their appeasement of all the urban legislatures with unpacked seats meant they could get away with maps that locked in the barest of majorities. This won't happen for the congressional map. In every possible way, the map posted at the end of today discriminates against AA Dem voters.

[cvparty]

this works well too i think. 7R-6D breakdown with NC-11 being the tipping point. CDs 2, 6 and 8 are very likely pickups

this is another map that better captures the research triangle and keeps most of johnston with raleigh, but also makes the 8th weirdish in shape

[Nyvin]

According to Stephan Wolfe, the GOP did something similar to that NC state senator from last time and whispered for half an hour while they carved up that neat sandhill seat you posted Nyvin.

I guess it was the map the NC Dems produced,  it was hard to get that from the video.

this works well too i think. 7R-6D breakdown with NC-11 being the tipping point. CDs 2, 6 and 8 are very likely pickups

this is another map that better captures the research triangle and keeps most of johnston with raleigh, but also makes the 8th weirdish in shape

I don't think the political will is there to unite Forsyth and Guilford, even on the Dem side really.   They probably want to keep the two metros separate.   The two counties really have their own respective political parties and power groups.   I know a similar situation plays out between Manchester and Nashua in New Hampshire.

The main thing is they want to avoid a tug of war during primaries.

[Vern]

Here's where the map stands right now at the end of the day. Of course  work will still continue but...this map is somehow worse then the previous preliminary one!

- Cracked Sandhills
- Separated Greensboro/Winston-Salem
- Raleigh seat that goes beyond Wake
- Parallel central districts
- First missing Greenville (they want to protect the  incumbent)
- No Boone for the 11th
- Johnson to Wilmington was clearly an option but it was dropped to carve up the sandhill region
- Seats are renumbered going E -> W, but this 4 and 7...

According to Stephan Wolfe, the GOP did something similar to that NC state senator from last time and whispered for half an hour while they carved up that neat sandhill seat you posted Nyvin.

If this style of map ends up as the final product, I suspect we will get the courts or special masters involved. The GOP employed their traditional "support AA caucus, lessen overall dem power" when drawing the state legislative maps. This plus their appeasement of all the urban legislatures with unpacked seats meant they could get away with maps that locked in the barest of majorities. This won't happen for the congressional map. In every possible way, the map posted at the end of today discriminates against AA Dem voters.

This is really not a bad map overall.

[Nyvin]

This is really not a bad map overall.

The southeast is a disaster zone in that map.  Those two county-chain districts are even worse than what the current map does.   Cabarrus with Johnston?  Brunswick with Union?!? 

It would also be a hard cap of 8R-5D,  with no real swing districts, Hillary won that Guilford district by like 9-10% if I have the math right.

[Vern]

Screenshot of Joint Select Committee on Congressional Redistricting Video link here


Here is all four maps they drew today.

[Brittain33]

God, these people are terrible at this.

[Oryxslayer]

👏 None 👏 Are 👏 Good 👏 Maps 👏

[cvparty]

Here is all four maps they drew today.

they seem really bent on stretching that one district 100 miles to the east of charlotte

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Thats it, put them all in jail. Let the courts draw the maps!


Of course they are going to keep putting Johnston in with Wilmington, because David Fing Rouzer is a former State Senator, and his base is Johnston.