North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[lfromnj]

Have y'all tried drawing with NC on the new population numbers? I've been tinkering around with some maps (nothing finished yet). So far it seems like the population distribution is a little better as far as drawing decent community of interest based districts ( ) but there seem to be fewer whole-county combinations which make concise districts ( ).

There also seem to be a few other "difficult points." The 1st district has been declining in population all decade even as NC has been gaining a seat, so it doesn't change much from 2010. Eastern North Carolina seems to have had laggy growth in general, but unlike last time it does seem to be possible to draw three ENC districts. Another thing worth noting is that Eastern Wake County is increasingly black; it means that a district based in Johnston or Franklin County might shouldn't cut in in that direction.

Yeah the map with the Charlotte split was with 2018 numbers as its now possible for a majority minority district there while keeping a Safe D white suburban district, anyway I wouldn't try for whole counties in a map rn, 2018 estimates are close to what actually happens but 2 years is still a lot of possible deviation.

[Sol]

Have y'all tried drawing with NC on the new population numbers? I've been tinkering around with some maps (nothing finished yet). So far it seems like the population distribution is a little better as far as drawing decent community of interest based districts ( ) but there seem to be fewer whole-county combinations which make concise districts ( ).

There also seem to be a few other "difficult points." The 1st district has been declining in population all decade even as NC has been gaining a seat, so it doesn't change much from 2010. Eastern North Carolina seems to have had laggy growth in general, but unlike last time it does seem to be possible to draw three ENC districts. Another thing worth noting is that Eastern Wake County is increasingly black; it means that a district based in Johnston or Franklin County might shouldn't cut in in that direction.

Yeah the map with the Charlotte split was with 2018 numbers as its now possible for a majority minority district there while keeping a Safe D white suburban district, anyway I wouldn't try for whole counties in a map rn, 2018 estimates are close to what actually happens but 2 years is still a lot of possible deviation.

That's fair. Still it's depressing to see that concise whole county NC-11 is basically impossible, at least under the current numbers, especially when there were multiple reasonable whole county combinations in 2010.

[Oryxslayer]

I messed around last week.

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1253732377072984066

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1253737004229066760

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1253744391941959680

[lfromnj]

Have y'all tried drawing with NC on the new population numbers? I've been tinkering around with some maps (nothing finished yet). So far it seems like the population distribution is a little better as far as drawing decent community of interest based districts ( ) but there seem to be fewer whole-county combinations which make concise districts ( ).

There also seem to be a few other "difficult points." The 1st district has been declining in population all decade even as NC has been gaining a seat, so it doesn't change much from 2010. Eastern North Carolina seems to have had laggy growth in general, but unlike last time it does seem to be possible to draw three ENC districts. Another thing worth noting is that Eastern Wake County is increasingly black; it means that a district based in Johnston or Franklin County might shouldn't cut in in that direction.

Yeah the map with the Charlotte split was with 2018 numbers as its now possible for a majority minority district there while keeping a Safe D white suburban district, anyway I wouldn't try for whole counties in a map rn, 2018 estimates are close to what actually happens but 2 years is still a lot of possible deviation.

That's fair. Still it's depressing to see that concise whole county NC-11 is basically impossible, at least under the current numbers, especially when there were multiple reasonable whole county combinations in 2010.

Actually you can start from the west and go to Asheville and then drag a county strip to wautaga for a deviation of only +333. Not perfectly compact but still follows the COI of the mountain ranges and allows for the most competitive seat in the region possible. So its basically a no brainer seat.

[Sol]

Have y'all tried drawing with NC on the new population numbers? I've been tinkering around with some maps (nothing finished yet). So far it seems like the population distribution is a little better as far as drawing decent community of interest based districts ( ) but there seem to be fewer whole-county combinations which make concise districts ( ).

There also seem to be a few other "difficult points." The 1st district has been declining in population all decade even as NC has been gaining a seat, so it doesn't change much from 2010. Eastern North Carolina seems to have had laggy growth in general, but unlike last time it does seem to be possible to draw three ENC districts. Another thing worth noting is that Eastern Wake County is increasingly black; it means that a district based in Johnston or Franklin County might shouldn't cut in in that direction.

Yeah the map with the Charlotte split was with 2018 numbers as its now possible for a majority minority district there while keeping a Safe D white suburban district, anyway I wouldn't try for whole counties in a map rn, 2018 estimates are close to what actually happens but 2 years is still a lot of possible deviation.

That's fair. Still it's depressing to see that concise whole county NC-11 is basically impossible, at least under the current numbers, especially when there were multiple reasonable whole county combinations in 2010.

Actually you can start from the west and go to Asheville and then drag a county strip to wautaga for a deviation of only +333. Not perfectly compact but still follows the COI of the mountain ranges and allows for the most competitive seat in the region possible. So its basically a no brainer seat.

That excludes Henderson County no? Frankly I'd call a version of NC-11 which excludes Henderson County unreasonable, considering how interconnected Buncombe and Henderson are. Still, a good catch, though I might actually prefer a map with a county split to cleaving those two counties.

[lfromnj]

Have y'all tried drawing with NC on the new population numbers? I've been tinkering around with some maps (nothing finished yet). So far it seems like the population distribution is a little better as far as drawing decent community of interest based districts ( ) but there seem to be fewer whole-county combinations which make concise districts ( ).

There also seem to be a few other "difficult points." The 1st district has been declining in population all decade even as NC has been gaining a seat, so it doesn't change much from 2010. Eastern North Carolina seems to have had laggy growth in general, but unlike last time it does seem to be possible to draw three ENC districts. Another thing worth noting is that Eastern Wake County is increasingly black; it means that a district based in Johnston or Franklin County might shouldn't cut in in that direction.

Yeah the map with the Charlotte split was with 2018 numbers as its now possible for a majority minority district there while keeping a Safe D white suburban district, anyway I wouldn't try for whole counties in a map rn, 2018 estimates are close to what actually happens but 2 years is still a lot of possible deviation.

That's fair. Still it's depressing to see that concise whole county NC-11 is basically impossible, at least under the current numbers, especially when there were multiple reasonable whole county combinations in 2010.

Actually you can start from the west and go to Asheville and then drag a county strip to wautaga for a deviation of only +333. Not perfectly compact but still follows the COI of the mountain ranges and allows for the most competitive seat in the region possible. So its basically a no brainer seat.

That excludes Henderson County no? Frankly I'd call a version of NC-11 which excludes Henderson County unreasonable, considering how interconnected Buncombe and Henderson are. Still, a good catch, though I might actually prefer a map with a county split to cleaving those two counties.

No just look at Oryx slayers map, it will probably have to take a few precints from the next county over too but seriously this district makes no sense not to make in any court/fair map


Preserves COI's(mountain ranges)
has a mostly reasonable shape with a very slightly odd arm
and keeps a slightly competitive district(Trump got 54% here) and it was only MCrory +2, trends aren't great here for D's but its the best district possible.
Obama lost it by 3.5 in 08 and if you divide the district into 2 parts(Wautaga+Henderson+Buncombe) vs the rest  you get a Roy Cooper +10 and Obama +4, part and a Mccrory +20 which was Mccain +16 so trends aren't completely awful here but it isn't great as Cooper still overperformed in the western rurals.

[Skill and Chance]

Have y'all tried drawing with NC on the new population numbers? I've been tinkering around with some maps (nothing finished yet). So far it seems like the population distribution is a little better as far as drawing decent community of interest based districts ( ) but there seem to be fewer whole-county combinations which make concise districts ( ).

There also seem to be a few other "difficult points." The 1st district has been declining in population all decade even as NC has been gaining a seat, so it doesn't change much from 2010. Eastern North Carolina seems to have had laggy growth in general, but unlike last time it does seem to be possible to draw three ENC districts. Another thing worth noting is that Eastern Wake County is increasingly black; it means that a district based in Johnston or Franklin County might shouldn't cut in in that direction.

Yeah the map with the Charlotte split was with 2018 numbers as its now possible for a majority minority district there while keeping a Safe D white suburban district, anyway I wouldn't try for whole counties in a map rn, 2018 estimates are close to what actually happens but 2 years is still a lot of possible deviation.

That's fair. Still it's depressing to see that concise whole county NC-11 is basically impossible, at least under the current numbers, especially when there were multiple reasonable whole county combinations in 2010.

Actually you can start from the west and go to Asheville and then drag a county strip to wautaga for a deviation of only +333. Not perfectly compact but still follows the COI of the mountain ranges and allows for the most competitive seat in the region possible. So its basically a no brainer seat.

That excludes Henderson County no? Frankly I'd call a version of NC-11 which excludes Henderson County unreasonable, considering how interconnected Buncombe and Henderson are. Still, a good catch, though I might actually prefer a map with a county split to cleaving those two counties.

No just look at Oryx slayers map, it will probably have to take a few precints from the next county over too but seriously this district makes no sense not to make in any court/fair map


Preserves COI's(mountain ranges)
has a mostly reasonable shape with a very slightly odd arm
and keeps a slightly competitive district(Trump got 54% here) and it was only MCrory +2, trends aren't great here for D's but its the best district possible.

I really think Asheville would be Dem enough to dominate that CD by the end of the decade, especially with Boone included.

[Sol]

Have y'all tried drawing with NC on the new population numbers? I've been tinkering around with some maps (nothing finished yet). So far it seems like the population distribution is a little better as far as drawing decent community of interest based districts ( ) but there seem to be fewer whole-county combinations which make concise districts ( ).

There also seem to be a few other "difficult points." The 1st district has been declining in population all decade even as NC has been gaining a seat, so it doesn't change much from 2010. Eastern North Carolina seems to have had laggy growth in general, but unlike last time it does seem to be possible to draw three ENC districts. Another thing worth noting is that Eastern Wake County is increasingly black; it means that a district based in Johnston or Franklin County might shouldn't cut in in that direction.

Yeah the map with the Charlotte split was with 2018 numbers as its now possible for a majority minority district there while keeping a Safe D white suburban district, anyway I wouldn't try for whole counties in a map rn, 2018 estimates are close to what actually happens but 2 years is still a lot of possible deviation.

That's fair. Still it's depressing to see that concise whole county NC-11 is basically impossible, at least under the current numbers, especially when there were multiple reasonable whole county combinations in 2010.

Actually you can start from the west and go to Asheville and then drag a county strip to wautaga for a deviation of only +333. Not perfectly compact but still follows the COI of the mountain ranges and allows for the most competitive seat in the region possible. So its basically a no brainer seat.

That excludes Henderson County no? Frankly I'd call a version of NC-11 which excludes Henderson County unreasonable, considering how interconnected Buncombe and Henderson are. Still, a good catch, though I might actually prefer a map with a county split to cleaving those two counties.

No just look at Oryx slayers map, it will probably have to take a few precints from the next county over too but seriously this district makes no sense not to make in any court/fair map


Preserves COI's(mountain ranges)
has a mostly reasonable shape with a very slightly odd arm
and keeps a slightly competitive district(Trump got 54% here) and it was only MCrory +2, trends aren't great here for D's but its the best district possible.
Obama lost it by 3.5 in 08 and if you divide the district into 2 parts(Wautaga+Henderson+Buncombe) vs the rest  you get a Roy Cooper +10 and Obama +4, part and a Mccrory +20 which was Mccain +16 so trends aren't completely awful here but it isn't great as Cooper still overperformed in the western rurals.

Ah I see-how dumb of me; assumed McDowell was included.

Not a bad district at all! In an ideal world this district would be a bit more southwesterly (i.e. exchanging Watauga and Avery for McDowell and Polk, but that's obviously splitting hairs.

[lfromnj]

Have y'all tried drawing with NC on the new population numbers? I've been tinkering around with some maps (nothing finished yet). So far it seems like the population distribution is a little better as far as drawing decent community of interest based districts ( ) but there seem to be fewer whole-county combinations which make concise districts ( ).

There also seem to be a few other "difficult points." The 1st district has been declining in population all decade even as NC has been gaining a seat, so it doesn't change much from 2010. Eastern North Carolina seems to have had laggy growth in general, but unlike last time it does seem to be possible to draw three ENC districts. Another thing worth noting is that Eastern Wake County is increasingly black; it means that a district based in Johnston or Franklin County might shouldn't cut in in that direction.

Yeah the map with the Charlotte split was with 2018 numbers as its now possible for a majority minority district there while keeping a Safe D white suburban district, anyway I wouldn't try for whole counties in a map rn, 2018 estimates are close to what actually happens but 2 years is still a lot of possible deviation.

That's fair. Still it's depressing to see that concise whole county NC-11 is basically impossible, at least under the current numbers, especially when there were multiple reasonable whole county combinations in 2010.

Actually you can start from the west and go to Asheville and then drag a county strip to wautaga for a deviation of only +333. Not perfectly compact but still follows the COI of the mountain ranges and allows for the most competitive seat in the region possible. So its basically a no brainer seat.

That excludes Henderson County no? Frankly I'd call a version of NC-11 which excludes Henderson County unreasonable, considering how interconnected Buncombe and Henderson are. Still, a good catch, though I might actually prefer a map with a county split to cleaving those two counties.

No just look at Oryx slayers map, it will probably have to take a few precints from the next county over too but seriously this district makes no sense not to make in any court/fair map


Preserves COI's(mountain ranges)
has a mostly reasonable shape with a very slightly odd arm
and keeps a slightly competitive district(Trump got 54% here) and it was only MCrory +2, trends aren't great here for D's but its the best district possible.

I really think Asheville would be Dem enough to dominate that CD by the end of the decade, especially with Boone included.

Again it still Trended R from 2008 to 2016  at the presidential level, it would be a good wave seat for D's to pick up but would still stay GOP out of that, this district might be enough to entice Schuler to come back however.

[lfromnj]

Have y'all tried drawing with NC on the new population numbers? I've been tinkering around with some maps (nothing finished yet). So far it seems like the population distribution is a little better as far as drawing decent community of interest based districts ( ) but there seem to be fewer whole-county combinations which make concise districts ( ).

There also seem to be a few other "difficult points." The 1st district has been declining in population all decade even as NC has been gaining a seat, so it doesn't change much from 2010. Eastern North Carolina seems to have had laggy growth in general, but unlike last time it does seem to be possible to draw three ENC districts. Another thing worth noting is that Eastern Wake County is increasingly black; it means that a district based in Johnston or Franklin County might shouldn't cut in in that direction.

Yeah the map with the Charlotte split was with 2018 numbers as its now possible for a majority minority district there while keeping a Safe D white suburban district, anyway I wouldn't try for whole counties in a map rn, 2018 estimates are close to what actually happens but 2 years is still a lot of possible deviation.

That's fair. Still it's depressing to see that concise whole county NC-11 is basically impossible, at least under the current numbers, especially when there were multiple reasonable whole county combinations in 2010.

Actually you can start from the west and go to Asheville and then drag a county strip to wautaga for a deviation of only +333. Not perfectly compact but still follows the COI of the mountain ranges and allows for the most competitive seat in the region possible. So its basically a no brainer seat.

That excludes Henderson County no? Frankly I'd call a version of NC-11 which excludes Henderson County unreasonable, considering how interconnected Buncombe and Henderson are. Still, a good catch, though I might actually prefer a map with a county split to cleaving those two counties.

No just look at Oryx slayers map, it will probably have to take a few precints from the next county over too but seriously this district makes no sense not to make in any court/fair map


Preserves COI's(mountain ranges)
has a mostly reasonable shape with a very slightly odd arm
and keeps a slightly competitive district(Trump got 54% here) and it was only MCrory +2, trends aren't great here for D's but its the best district possible.
Obama lost it by 3.5 in 08 and if you divide the district into 2 parts(Wautaga+Henderson+Buncombe) vs the rest  you get a Roy Cooper +10 and Obama +4, part and a Mccrory +20 which was Mccain +16 so trends aren't completely awful here but it isn't great as Cooper still overperformed in the western rurals.

Ah I see-how dumb of me; assumed McDowell was included.

Not a bad district at all! In an ideal world this district would be a bit more southwesterly (i.e. exchanging Watauga and Avery for McDowell and Polk, but that's obviously splitting hairs.

Nah I think districts should at the very least prioritize a degree of competitiveness if its a fair map if possible while not tearing COI's up(Arizona went too far it used native Americans in the north along with liberals in Flag staff and then went to the South Phoenix burbs), but this is merely a choice of a perfectly clean district but mostly noncompetitive or a slightly competitive district but a touch messier but also keeps reasonable COI's together.

[Sol]

I'd argue that the parts of WNC which are in Asheville's sphere of influence are definitely a CoI, albeit a weak one for all but Henderson since most of them are more exurban (and not in the sense of massive developments of ticky tacky) than suburban. Henderson is different because it's more built up and linked to Asheville.

I doubt Heath Shuler would come back succesfully; he's cashed in as a lobbyist. Plus he's never represented Watauga, Avery, or Mitchell. These days he's a crappy fit for the Democratic primary electorate in that hypothetical NC-11, which would probably be dominated by lefties in Buncombe and Watauga.

(Watauga wildly punches above their weight in primaries; the Watauga Democrats picked the Democratic nominee in every NC-05 primary before Winston-Salem was added, and Bill Tooele won the Lt. Gov. primary this year there because he got the crucial local endorsement).

Wrt: WNC trends, there's a fair amount of counter-momentum to Asheville getting more D; Western NC is a popular place for retirees and Dems probably still haven't bottomed out in Madison, Yancey, Haywood, etc.

[Sol]

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1253737004229066760

Why is this so ugly? Splitting Orange and Durham, the odd shape of the 5th, etc.

IMO the most likely outcome is a fair map imposed by the court which is more on the Democratic side of the range of possibilities. 

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1253737004229066760

Why is this so ugly? Splitting Orange and Durham, the odd shape of the 5th, etc.

IMO the most likely outcome is a fair map imposed by the court which is more on the Democratic side of the range of possibilities.  

Are you referring to map 1, 2, or 3 here? 2 only micro-cuts Orange, and that's because of pop. But on the broader topic...incumbent protection deals are not the prettiest maps, they are guided by partisanship. Almost everything is copied from the current map, so blame the legislature for the mess. In concerning the makeup of 4 and 14, it came down to the easiest way to make all seats safe.  The way how the Dems in the legislature would see this is an expansion of the Triangles power since they would have Ross in Raleigh, Price, or likely his successor, in Chapel Hill, and someone new in Durham. That's just how parochial legislators think, which is why commissions are better. Unfortunately, NC lacks a commission so that style of map is not drawn.

[Sol]

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1253737004229066760

Why is this so ugly? Splitting Orange and Durham, the odd shape of the 5th, etc.

IMO the most likely outcome is a fair map imposed by the court which is more on the Democratic side of the range of possibilities.  

Are you referring to map 1, 2, or 3 here? 2 only micro-cuts Orange, and that's because of pop. But on the broader topic...incumbent protection deals are not the prettiest maps, they are guided by partisanship. Almost everything is copied from the current map, so blame the legislature for the mess. In concerning the makeup of 4 and 14, it came down to the easiest way to make all seats safe.  The way how the Dems in the legislature would see this is an expansion of the Triangles power since they would have Ross in Raleigh, Price, or likely his successor, in Chapel Hill, and someone new in Durham. That's just how parochial legislators think, which is why commissions are better. Unfortunately, NC lacks a commission so that style of map is not drawn.

I have no idea why you assume that 1. The NCGOP would consult with Democrats even if drawing a fairly modest map, and 2. that the Democrats would want a Fayetteville to Chapel Hill district. If your new 14th district is open, it's liable to elect a Fayetteville democrat. The status quo of a Durham-Chapel Hill district is pretty sensible and wouldn't be controversial with the local Democrats. Then you can draw a district based in Fayetteville and environs. The previous gerrymandered 4th went all the way to Fayetteville and was loathed, and not just because it was a hyper-partisan vote sink--Orange and Cumberland counties are extremely different.

Additionally, cutting Mecklenburg into 5 districts with 7 pieces is grotesque. No party wants to do something like that unless they're engaging massive scale gerrymandering, which isn't what they're supposed to be doing in this map and which isn't necessary. They'd split Catawba or Iredell or something first.

Sorry for the quote gore.

[Sol]

I understand why you'd want two districts dipping into South Charlotte, but splitting Northern Mecklenburg two ways is unecessary for a region which is much less populated, and which hasn't trended as far as certain areas in the south of the county.

[Sol]

Here's a map which I've been spitballing, roughly a fair map drawn by a Dem court. There's a few things which I'd alter if I could--the real version of this map would have the 4th splitting a precinct in Lee. I'd also have to split a precinct in Northern Mecklenburg as well as they cut across city lines and are huge.

A few things:
-I tried to split counties where it'd make sense--so Franklin and Iredell are cut to separate their rural from suburban areas (roughly). The cuts in Northern Mecklenburg, Wake, and Pitt are designed to follow city lines.
-I wish the 1st was further east, but it was that or send the 7th into suburban Raleigh or Robeson County, which I figured were worse.
-Likewise, I wish the 4th went east rather than south. Alamance, Lee, and Moore aren't great fits for a Triangle district.
-I also don't like Goldsboro going into the Wilmington district, but I don't feel too guilty. Wilmington is too small on its own.

And since I think any fair district should have obvious Canadian-style names, here are some:
1. Rocky Mount-Albemarle
2. Raleigh
3. Jacksonville-Outer Banks
4. Durham-Chapel Hill
5. Hickory-Yadkin
6. Greensboro-Winston Salem
7. Cape Fear
8. Fayetteville-Sandhills
9. Charlotte South and West (or Charlotte-Concord-Monroe?)
10. Gastonia-Shelby
11. Blue Ridge (or Western North Carolina?)
12. Charlotte
13. Raleigh East
14. Piedmont

[lfromnj]

Any D court is gonna squish a 4th tossup/ D district in the Piedmont to the triangle, you just have to start by using all of Forsyth then add a few extra moderately R leaning Counties in the north for the tossup. This keeps it relatively clean, one could make it a bit messier but more COI based by pushing it into one of Wake's exurbs counties.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/533404207668133888/707062709010694144/unknown.png
Blue is the main COI for the 4 districts and green is the remaining 250k or so pop needed to boost it to exactly 4 districts by 2018 pop.

[Oryxslayer]

Any D court is gonna squish a 4th tossup/ D district in the Piedmont to the triangle, you just have to start by using all of Forsyth then add a few extra moderately R leaning Counties in the north for the tossup.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/533404207668133888/707062709010694144/unknown.png
Blue is the main COI for the 4 districts and green is the remaining 250k or so pop needed to boost it to exactly 4 districts by 2018 pop.

Yes, any Dem court map is going to find a way to squeeze 4 D/Competitive seats out of the cities in north NC. However, they probably won't go with exactly the blue counties you selected because of the cascade effect it would have of the map. The 1st is already getting desperate for more favorable turf, so it probably needs AT LEAST one of Franklin or Granville. Even still, it would then require eating more from the west of the state. This then either requires 9 to give up needed swingy turf in the Sandhills or Johnston ends up with one of the eastern seats - neither a good outcome. That said, taking in a bit of red won't really hurt any of the seats in the long term - the court drawn map I suggested above for instance found a way to get a swing seat out of the region even with Johnston and Hernet. there is zero chance a dem court map tries to revive 2016 NC02 like in sols previous map.

Also, I will go over Sol's response point by point later, when it is not 11pm at night.

[lfromnj]

Any D court is gonna squish a 4th tossup/ D district in the Piedmont to the triangle, you just have to start by using all of Forsyth then add a few extra moderately R leaning Counties in the north for the tossup.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/533404207668133888/707062709010694144/unknown.png
Blue is the main COI for the 4 districts and green is the remaining 250k or so pop needed to boost it to exactly 4 districts by 2018 pop.

Yes, any Dem court map is going to find a way to squeeze 4 D/Competitive seats out of the cities in north NC. However, they probably won't go with exactly the blue counties you selected because of the cascade effect it would have of the map. The 1st is already getting desperate for more favorable turf, so it probably needs AT LEAST one of Franklin or Granville. Even still, it would then require eating more from the west of the state. This then either requires 9 to give up needed swingy turf in the Sandhills or Johnston ends up with one of the eastern seats - neither a good outcome. That said, taking in a bit of red won't really hurt any of the seats in the long term - the court drawn map I suggested above for instance found a way to get a swing seat out of the region even with Johnston and Hernet. there is zero chance a dem court map tries to revive 2016 NC02 like in sols previous map.

Also, I will go over Sol's response point by point later, when it is not 11pm at night.

You mean the green counties right?
The blue ones are the big counties while the green counties are what I needed to boost up the district. Anyway IMO the 4th "Triangle" district should still be pretty R leaning like sol's map but yeah   a D court is gonna shove that 4th seat in, similar to decisions like PA 17th(made for Lamb) or smaller decisions like PA 1st which shifted it 3 points left, or PA 10th to squeeze a seat there.(taking in York)

[Oryxslayer]

Any D court is gonna squish a 4th tossup/ D district in the Piedmont to the triangle, you just have to start by using all of Forsyth then add a few extra moderately R leaning Counties in the north for the tossup.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/533404207668133888/707062709010694144/unknown.png
Blue is the main COI for the 4 districts and green is the remaining 250k or so pop needed to boost it to exactly 4 districts by 2018 pop.

Yes, any Dem court map is going to find a way to squeeze 4 D/Competitive seats out of the cities in north NC. However, they probably won't go with exactly the blue counties you selected because of the cascade effect it would have of the map. The 1st is already getting desperate for more favorable turf, so it probably needs AT LEAST one of Franklin or Granville. Even still, it would then require eating more from the west of the state. This then either requires 9 to give up needed swingy turf in the Sandhills or Johnston ends up with one of the eastern seats - neither a good outcome. That said, taking in a bit of red won't really hurt any of the seats in the long term - the court drawn map I suggested above for instance found a way to get a swing seat out of the region even with Johnston and Hernet. there is zero chance a dem court map tries to revive 2016 NC02 like in sols previous map.

Also, I will go over Sol's response point by point later, when it is not 11pm at night.

You mean the green counties right?
The blue ones are the big counties while the green counties are what I needed to boost up the district. Anyway IMO the 4th "Triangle" district should still be pretty R leaning like sol's map but yeah   a D court is gonna shove that 4th seat in, similar to decisions like PA 17th(made for Lamb) or smaller decisions like PA 1st which shifted it 3 points left, or PA 10th to squeeze a seat there.(taking in York)

Yep, swap green and blue in my orginial post. This is an excellent example of why I don't want to respond meticulously to a post at 11pm. 

[Sol]

If y'all are concerned about adding another Dem district, how about this?

[lfromnj]

If y'all are concerned about adding another Dem district, how about this?

Yeah that should work, Also the court may try to make the 2nd Mecklenburg district more competitive say around Trump +9 or +8.

[Sol]

Played a bit with Mecklenburg, but it's hard to make the 9th district competitive without slicing up the Black community or putting one of Union or Cabarrus in the 12th, which I would assume are no-gos.

[Oryxslayer]

I have no idea why you assume that 1. The NCGOP would consult with Democrats even if drawing a fairly modest map,

This scenario has the GOP wishing to avoid the court. Now why would they consult with the Dems and get their agreement even though right now it looks like the GOP will have full de jure mapping authority? Well, perhaps because the Dems and their aligned groups would be the ones pushing it up to the courts, so the GOP would want to get a map that they could agree to, so that they have confidence the lines won't be challenged. That is this map's scenario, and it follows likely trajectories based on that initial scenario.

2. that the Democrats would want a Fayetteville to Chapel Hill district. If your new 14th district is open, it's liable to elect a Fayetteville democrat.

Sure, the seat could elect a Fayetteville Dem, but that is less likely. Fayetteville had about 70K Dem voters in 2016, and a large chunk of them are AA, meaning lower primary turnout. The Triangle Area has 105-110K Dem voters, and most are Suburbanites. The region is also growing, and will get more dems. If Price stays on past 2022 then it would 100% be electing 3 Triangle dems, and there are more of them in the legislature. But on to the more pressing issue...

The status quo of a Durham-Chapel Hill district is pretty sensible and wouldn't be controversial with the local Democrats. Then you can draw a district based in Fayetteville and environs. The previous gerrymandered 4th went all the way to Fayetteville and was loathed, and not just because it was a hyper-partisan vote sink--Orange and Cumberland counties are extremely different.

So this is about separating Chapel Hill and Durham, which only became united after the 2019 court case. Lets start the explanation from the triangle, but from the Sandhills. In this scenario, the GOP does not want Fayetteville in their red seats - it's too much of a blue anchor. In fact it would make more sense to throw the district into a pack. However, where would this pack come from? It can't be a long NC01 connection, a decision which would allow for a centralized third Triangle seat. Even if one is selective and takes away a bunch of counties near to the Triangle, NC01+Fayetteville+the connector is still too overpopulated. It can't be southern Wake - that area is still not blue enough to anchor a safe Dem pack, even if you go the for the blue areas like Cary. Plus I'm sure Ross might be a little fussy for losing the centrism of her Wake seat. It can't be Durham, even though such a move would create another AA opportunity seat. Durham is just to heavy, and both of the counties combined would almost equal one CD. By process of elimination, it has to be Chapel Hill.

But, you might ask, why not go for the Sandhills. Well, because a district with Fayetteville, Robeson, Bladen, Hoke, Scotland, Richmond, Anson, and whatever GOP turf if needed to fill out the seat has it's over issues. Such a seat would be weak in it's dem partisan lean, and would require a bunch of re-jostling across the map. This is ideal for a fair or court map, which cares about COIs first and partisanship second. It however is not ideal for a Bipartisan gerrymander. Democrats look at this and see a seat that would need money to defend in all years, and would be vulnerable to a flip in bad years. The GOP looks at such a district and sees a bunch of rural Republican precincts getting wasted in a Blue seat AND a bunch of weaker Blue and tossup areas - counties perfect for cracking. Fayetteville however is none of these, unless the GOP has the authority to go for complete carveup since they somehow found a way to flip the court.

In summery, Fayetteville is too Blue to be cracked, yet too heavy a democratic county to be paired with anything but Chapel Hill.

Additionally, cutting Mecklenburg into 5 districts with 7 pieces is grotesque. No party wants to do something like that unless they're engaging massive scale gerrymandering, which isn't what they're supposed to be doing in this map and which isn't necessary. They'd split Catawba or Iredell or something first.

While I may have held the pen here, the decision as not mine. I want you to open your eyes for a moment. This map is mostly based on the 2019 lines, with some adjustments so that the dems would not challenge it in court. So I want you to think: Why did the GOP bacon-strip their safe R seats even though they are all Safe R and nobody has any threats. Consideirng they cross multiple media markets, it makes it all harder for incumbents to appeal to their entire district and leaves disconnected communities which can birth opportunists. The original thought was that the new seats were designed to facilitate certain primary challengers or lay the groundwork for certain legislative allies upon the retirement of said incumbents. But that didn't happen. However the decision was clearly premeditated and understanding why the districts were reoriented is key.

My understanding right now is that the districts were reoriented because of the actual population on the ground, even though they were mapping with 2010 data. Mecklenburg seems to have added above 200K last decade. Gaston added 20K. Cabarrus added 40K. Union added 40K. If 2016 and 2018 are good indicators, most of these new additions are democrats. Oh, and Charlotte doesn't appear to be slowing down her growth anytime soon. The GOP wants a map that can survive all 10 years safely. Sticking the entire counties surplus in NC08 or 09 will be dangerous in the future based on growth patterns. The trick therefore is to divide the surplus between the districts the GOP reoriented into the region for likely this very reason. The 2019 map laid the groundwork, for their plans in 2020. Now yes, I could have pulled one of NC10 or NC05 out of Mecklenburg and cut the county one less time, but if you are already committing to a mass-crack, you should probably go all the way.

[Sol]

I just think you're overrating the thoughtfulness of the GOP/their willingness to draw ugly districts to satisfy a purpose other than partisan gain. I suspect the GOP would look at a light blue (atlas red) Sandhills district and see it as more appealing than an extra Democratic vote sink which takes in several Republican counties and is ugly.

The scenario which you've outlined is one where Republicans are trying to draw a non-partisanish district which appeals to some Democrats. The map which the Republicans drew in 2019, which was about the same scenario, was significantly less ugly!


Wrt: Mecklenburg, I think I expressed above the specificity of my criticism. I don't mind that you dipped into South Charlotte, or the removal of Northern Mecklenburg--both make sense from pretty much any perspective. But slicing Northern Mecklenburg twice (!) is unecessary. If you look at the 2016 results, Northern Meck swung a good bit less and remains Republican. It will probably get more D so I don't think putting it in the 5th is crazy, but splitting a still Likely R area filled with a lot of Rich GOP power players seems a little odd.

In any case, very little here is certain. All of us, myself included, like to assume that we have some insight into what these legislators are going to do, but probably all of us will assume wrong at some point. A little humility is necessary, especially when one is arguing for outcomes which are certain to be controversial.