Oppenheimer wins 7 Oscars (Best Picture) (film & awards)

[T'Chenka]

Film Discussion & Awards Season Discussion

I'm pretty into films and awards season, and I like to discuss upcoming awards as well as years past. The thread about Joker is showing me that others like to discuss as well. Here's a thread for that. This also for discussing movies in general, as long as they're well made or half-decent. Fast & Furious 9 and badly written comedy / action can be discussed if you really want to, but intended the focus here is more on film: acting, directing, screenplay, editing, pacing, score, plot, cinematography, etc.

Discussion of 2024 movies
Will Dune: Part Two win Best Picture? Which films do you think will be big players this year? Will Sing Sing go far and maybe win it all as the pundits are predicting, or is that premature? Will Conclave, Queer, Blitz, Flint Strong get into Best Picture? Will Coppola's new film Megalopolis be a dud?

Discussion of 2023 movies
Did Oppenheimer deserve to win Best Picture over Barbie, Poor Things, Killers Of The Flower Moon, Anatomy Of A Fall? Did Killers Of The Flower Moon deserve zero Oscar wins (including Actress)? Do you think Anatomy Of A Fall would have defeated The Zone Of Interest for International Feature if France had submitted it to the Oscars? Should Past Lives been nominated in more than 2 categories?

Discussion of 2022 movies
Did Everything Everything All At Once deserve to perform so strong at the Oscars? Should Babylon and the performances from Babylon have been nominated in the bigger categories? Which awards were you disappointed about the results of?

Discussion of 2021 movies
Did you find The Power Of The Dog leading the pack all year to be boring? Were you happy with CODA winning Best Picture? Were you annoyed at some of the extremely well made films like The Greeen Knight, Spencer, The Humans all getting zero nominations for technical categories?

Discussion of 2020 movies
Did you find Nomadland leading the pack all year to be boring? Should The Father have won instead? Were you annoyed that Another Round didn't get into Best Picture? Was Mank under-nominated?

Discussion of 2019 movies
Did 1917 deserve to win Best Picture or at the very least Director over Parasite? Did Marriage Story deserve more Oscars than the one it got? Did The Irishman winning zero Oscars sit well with you? All 5 directing nominees were men, but did all 5 deserve to be nominated over Greta Gerwig for Little Women?

[T'Chenka]

Gonna leave some stuff here, just for reference:


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

2023 films - Oscars - Best Picture nominees
- American Fiction
- Anatomy Of A Fall [Anatomie D'Une Chute]
- Barbie
- The Holdovers
- Killers Of The Flower Moon (apple)
- Maestro (netflix)
- Oppenheimer (winner)
- Past Lives
- Poor Things
- The Zone Of Interest

2022 films - Oscars - Best Director/Screenplay (but not Picture) nominees
- May December (netflix in North America)

2022 films - Other notable films

- (documentary) 20 Days In Mariupol
- A Thousand And One
- All Of Us Strangers
- (documentary) American Symphony (netflix)
- Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret
- BlackBerry
- The Boy And The Heron
- The Color Purple
- The Creator
- Creed III
- Dream Scenario
- Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
- Elemental
- Fallen Leaves [Kuolleet Lehdet]
- Godzilla Minus One
- Guardians Of The Galaxy: Vol. 3
- How To Have Sex
- The Hunger Games: The Ballad Of Songbirds And Snakes
- Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny
- The Killer (netflix)
- Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning
- Monster [怪物]
- Napoleon (apple)
- Nimona (netflix)
- Nyad (netflix)
- Origin
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
- The Peasants [Chłopi]
- Perfect Days
- Priscilla
- Robot Dreams
- Rustin (netflix)
- Rye Lane
- Society Of The Snow [La Sociedad De La Nieve]
- Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse
- The Taste Of Things [La Passion De Dodin Bouffant]
- They Cloned Tyrone (netflix)
- Wonka

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

2022 films - Oscars - Best Picture nominees
- All Quiet On The Western Front [Im Westen Nichts Neues] (netflix)
- Avatar: The Way Of Water
- The Banshees Of Inisherin
- Elvis
- Everything Everywhere All At Once (winner)
- The Fabelmans
- TÁR
- Top Gun: Maverick
- Triangle Of Sadness
- Women Talking

2022 films - Oscars - Best Director/Screenplay (but not Picture) nominees
- Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (netflix)
- Living

2022 films - Other notable films

- Aftersun
- [documentary] All The Beauty And The Bloodshed
- Argentina, 1985
- Barbarian
- The Batman
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Bones & All
- Decision To Leave
- Empire Of Light
- [documentary] Fire Of Love
- Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio (netflix)
- Morbius
- [documentary] Navalny
- Nope
- The Northman
- Push In Boots: The Last Wish
- The Quiet Girl
- RRR
- The Sea Beast (netflix)
- The Son
- Till
- The Whale
- The Woman King

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

2021 films - Oscars - Best Picture nominees
- Belfast
- CODA (apple +) (winner)
- Don't Look Up (netflix)
- Drive My Car [ドライブ・マイ・カー]
- Dune
- King Richard
- Licorice Pizza
- Nightmare Alley
- The Power Of The Dog (netflix)
- West Side Story

2021 films - Oscars - Best Director/Screenplay (but not Picture) nominees
- The Worst Person In The World
- The Lost Daughter (netflix)

2021 films - Other notable films

- A Hero [Ghahreman] (amazon prime)
- Annette (amazon prime)
- Being The Ricardos (amazon prime)
- Compartment No. 6 [Hytti nro 6]
- C'mon C'mon
- Cruella (disney +)
- Cyrano
- Encanto (disney +)
- Eternals (disney +)
- Flee
- Happening [L'Evenement]
- In The Heights
- Last Night In Soho
- Luca  (disney +)
- Mass
- Nitram
- No Time To Die
- Nobody
- Pig
- Raya And The Last Dragon  (disney +)
- Red Rocket
- Spencer
- Spider-Man: No Way Home
- Shang-Chi And The Legend Of The Ten Rings  (disney +)
- The French Dispatch
- The Green Knight
- The Hand Of God (netflix)
- The Harder They Fall (netflix)
- The Humans
- The Last Duel
- The Matrix Resurrections
- The Mitchells vs The Machines (netflix)
- The Novice
- The Suicide Squad
- The Tragedy Of Macbeth (apple +)
- Tick, Tick... Boom! (netflix)
- Titane

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

2020 films - Oscars - Best Picture nominees
- Judas And The Black Messiah
- Mank (netflix)
- Minari
- Nomadland (winner)
- Promising Young Woman
- Sound Of Metal (amazon prime)
- The Father
- The Trial Of The Chicago 7 (netflix)

2020 films - Oscars - Best Director/Screenplay (but not Picture) nominees
- Another Round
- Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm (amazon prime)
- One Night In Miami (amazon prime)
- The White Tiger (netflix)

2020 films - Other notable films
- Ammonite
- Bad Boys For Life
- Bill & Ted Face The Music
- Birds Of Prey (Harley Quinn)
- Cherry (apple+)
- Da 5 Bloods (netflix)
- Emma.
- First Cow
- Greyhound (apple+)
- Hamilton
- Happiest Season
- Hillbilly Elegy (netflix)
- I'm Thinking Of Ending Things (netflix)
- Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (netflix)
- Mulan
- Never Rarely Sometimes Always
- News Of The World
- Nine Days
- On The Rocks (apple+)
- Onward
- Palm Springs
- Pieces Of A Woman (netflix)
- Possessor
- Relic
- Sonic The Hedgehog
- Soul (disney+)
- Tenet
- The Devil All The Time (netflix)
- The Gentlemen
- The Hunt
- The Invisible Man
- The King Of Staten Island
- The Midnight Sky (netflix)
- The United States vs Billie Holiday
- The Way Back
- Wolfwalkers (apple+)
- Wonder Woman 1984

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

2019 films - Oscars - Best Picture nominees
- 1917
- Ford V Ferrari
- Joker
- Jojo Rabbit
- Little Women
- Marriage Story (netflix)
- Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
- Parasite [Gisaengchung] (winner)
- The Irishman (netflix)

2019 films - Oscars - Best Director/Screenplay (but not Picture) nominees
- Knives Out
- The Two Popes (netflix)

2019 films - Other notable films
- A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood
- A Hidden Life
- Ad Astra
- Avengers: Endgame
- Blinded By The Light
- Bombshell
- Booksmart
- Clemency
- Crawl
- Dark Waters
- Dolemite Is My Name
- Fighting With My Family
- Frozen II
- Harriet
- Honey Boy
- Hustlers
- I Lost My Body [J'ai Perdu Mon Corps]
- John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum
- Judy
- Just Mercy
- Klaus
- Late Night
- Long Shot
- Luce
- Midsommar
- Missing Link
- Monos
- Queen & Slim
- Pain & Glory [Dolor Y Gloria]
- Portrait Of A Lady On Fire [Portrait De La Jeune Fille En Feu]
- Richard Jewell
- Rocketman
- Shazam!
- The Farewell
- The Last Black Man In San Francisco
- The Lighthouse
- The Peanut Butter Falcon
- The Report
- Toy Story 4
- Uncut Gems
- Us
- Waves

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

2018 films - Oscars - Best Picture nominees
- A Star Is Born
- Black Panther
- BlackKklansman
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- Green Book (winner)
- The Favourite
- Roma (netflix)
- Vice

2018 films - Oscars - Best Director/Screenplay (but not Picture) nominees
- Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Cold War [Zimna Wojna]
- First Reformed
- If Beale Street Could Talk
- The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs (netflix)

2018 films - Other notable films
- A Quiet Place
- At Eternity's Gate
- Avengers: Infinity War
- Blindspotting
- Burning [Beoning]
- Capernaum [Capharnaum]
- Eighth Grade
- First Man
- Free Solo
- Hereditary
- Incredibles 2
- Leave No Trace
- Mary Poppins Returns
- Never Look Away
- Shoplifters [Manbiki Kazoku]
- Sorry To Bother You
- Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse
- Upgrade
- Widows

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

2017 films - Oscars - Best Picture nominees
- Call Me By Your Name
- Darkest Hour
- Dunkirk
- Get Out
- Lady Bird
- Phantom Thread
- The Post
- The Shape Of Water (winner)
- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

2016 films - Oscars - Best Picture nominees
- Arrival
- Fences
- Hacksaw Ridge
- Hell Of High Water
- Hidden Figures
- La La Land
- Lion
- Manchester By The Sea
- Moonlight (winner)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

2015 films - Oscars - Best Picture nominees
- The Big Short
- Bridge Of Spies
- Brooklyn
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Martian
- The Revenant
- Room
- Spotlight (winner)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

[T'Chenka]

A Quiet Place was wonderful.  This year's movies overall were not very memorable.  I think its going to be another boring season.

Parasite is really really good and a future classic, but it hasn't been seen by hundreds of thousands of people yet. Not so artsy that it would turn people off, though it is a bit of a thinking man's movie. Highly recommend it.

Midsommar was also great, but it's a horror movie that isn't scary, somewhat artsy and 2.5 hours long. Obviously not for everyone, but I strongly recommend it if the previous sentence didn't turn you off.

[T'Chenka]

I think Star Wars The Rise of Skywalker too will be nominated fir awards like best sound, for example like The Force Awakens.

Some chance to ne nominated:
- Best Score
- Best Sound Mixing
- Best Visual Effects
- Best Production Design

Long shot but not totally impossible to be nominated:
- Best Original Screenplay
- Best Cinematography
- Best Editing
- Best Sound Editing

[T'Chenka]

I expect a lot of accolades for 'The Irishman.' Other than that and 'Once Upon a Time In Hollywood,' I can't think of too many shoo-ins for awards season yet, this year. It's still early though, and this time of year is when most awards season films come out too, so it might be too early to speculate still.

I think it's pretty safe to say that Marriage Story is getting nominated. Many many people that have seen it claim that it's got a good shot at Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay and Best Director. Reviews in general have been extremely good as well. The type of film and style are very Academy-friendly as well, and it was one of the two People's Choice Award runner-up films at the Toronto International Film Festival (tied for second place with Parasite).

[T'Chenka]

Btw, could you remind me what the difference is between sound mixing and sound editing?  I always forget this and end up getting them confused.  IIRC, one is sound effects during filming and the other is sound added in post, but I could be misremembering.  

Sound Editing is the creation of sounds... think about creating the T-Rex roar for Jurassic Park or the lightsaber sound for Star Wars.

Sound Mixing is putting all the sounds for a movie together, how loud and quiet each sound is (including the score and sound from the set from microphones like talking, doors closing), and how left-speaker / right-speaker / advanced surround sound details everything is .

Sadly and pathetically, the Academy voters don't even seem to know the difference. They gave Bohemian Rhapsody the award for Sound Editing over A Quiet Place and First Man. They gave Bohemian Rhapsody the award for Sound Mixing over Roma. It's so cringe and facepalm worthy, but I guess the Academy just doesn't care. I consider being nominated as one of the five films up for each of those awards to be an equal or greater honor than actually winning the award at this point.

[T'Chenka]

JOJO RABBIT (no spoilers)

This movie lacks truly top-tier directing, cinematography, acting, score, and the script isn't perfectly paced. This is not an "artistic masterpiece". All of the things I just mentioned are actually pretty good, but not at that very top level.

That being said, this was a DAMNED good film and I absolutely loved it. People worried that this film is offensive need to go see it. It's great, and it's message is great. Thomasin Mackenzie has a long career in Hollywood ahead of her - she upstaged both Johansson and Rockwell. BIG recommendation for anybody reading this to go and check this film out. Best Picture nomination is expected and it better not get overlooked.

[T'Chenka]

One more update, I finally saw 'Blindspotting' yesterday. Holy s***! Now this was a snub! This is the other best movie I have ever seen of 2018. It's right up there with 'Won't You Be My Neighbor.'

It's like 'Friday' meets 'Do the Right Thing,' but for this generation. It explores themes of class, criminal justice, culture, gentrification, identity, race, and more all in a very organic way with just as much as humor as there is meaningful, gripping drama. Massively underrated!

Blindspotting's biggest problem BY FAR is that not enough people have seen it. Great film that I always recommend to others. For whatever it's worth, I have it at #13 on my rankings for 2018 films.

[T'Chenka]

I really hope "Parasite" gets nominated for BP, and many other awards. I saw it today and it's the best film of the year.

I lurk "r/oscarrace" on Reddit and read all the predictions for who will get NOMINATED (not win the award) for all the categories, and Parasite is looking to do well.

Best International Feature: 99.999% guarantee

Best Picture: extremely good chance

Best Director: very good chance
Best Original Screenplay: very good chance
Best Production Design: very good chance (*** see note at end)

Best Cinematography: good chance
Best Editing: good chance

Best Score: somewhat likely, about 50/50

Best Supporting Actor: unlikely but possible
Best Supporting Actress: unlikely but possible


*** NOTE - They partially built the big fancy house just for this film, though some of it was CGI apparently. They also built the entire street that the sub-basement apartment is on just for this film.

[T'Chenka]

Gonna do my first predictions now. Will possibly do another one around New Years and a final one in the last week or two before the Oscars.



BEST PICTURE
Marriage Story
The Irishman
Parasite
Little Women
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Jojo Rabbit
1917
Ford V Ferrari
Bombshell
(#10 = Joker, I predict they nominate only 9 though)


BEST DIRECTOR
The Irishman, Parasite, Marriage Story, Once Upon / In Hollywood, Little Women

BEST ACTOR
Marriage Story, Joker, Once Upon / In Hollywood, The Irishman, Pain & Glory

BEST ACTRESS
Marriage Story, Judy, Bombshell, Little Women, The Farewell

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The Irishman, A Beautiful Day / Neighborhood, The Irishman, Once Upon / In Hollywood, The Lighthouse

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Little Women, Marriage Story, Bombshell, Hustlers, Jojo Rabbit

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
 Marriage Story, Parasite, Once Upon / In Hollywood, Bombshell, The Farewell

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman, Little Women, Jojo Rabbit, A Beautiful Day / Neighborhood, The Two Popes



BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Parasite, Pain & Glory, Les Miserables, Atlantics, Monos

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Toy Story 4, Frozen II, How To / Dragon 3, Weathering With You, I Lost My Body

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Factory, Apollo 11, One Child Nation, The Cave, Honeyland



BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917, Once Upon / In Hollywood, Parasite, The Irishman, The Lighthouse

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Irishman, Avengers: Endgame, Ad Astra, Star Wars 9, The Lion King

BEST EDITING
Marriage Story, The Irishman, Once Upon / In Hollywood, Parasite, Ford v Ferrari

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Once Upon / In Hollywood, Parasite, Ad Astra, 1917, The Irishman

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Little Women, Jojo Rabbit, Dolemite Is My Name, Once Upon / In Hollywood, Downton Abbey

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Bombshell, Judy, Rocketman, Joker, Little Women

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Marriage Story, 1917, Star Wars 9, Little Women, Joker

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Frozen II, Harriet, Toy Story 4, Rocketman, The Lion King

BEST SOUND EDITING
1917, Ford V Ferrari, Star Wars 9, Ad Astra, Avengers: Endgame

BEST SOUND MIXING
Ford v Ferrari, 1917, Star Wars 9, Ad Astra, The Lighthouse

BEST (Documentary, Live-Action, Animated) SHORT
I honestly don't care about short films and these 3 awards. Maybe I should, but it is what it is.



6 Oscars - Marriage Story
4 Oscars - The Irishman
2 Oscars - Little Women, 1917
1 Oscar - Parasite, Once Upon / In Hollywood, Ford v Ferrari, Bombshell...
               ...Toy Story 4, Frozen II, American Factory


9 Nominations - The Irishman, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
8 Nominations - Marriage Story, Little Women
7 Nominations - Parasite
6 Nominations - 1917
5 Nominations - Bombshell
4 Nominations - Jojo Rabbit, Ford v Ferrari, Ad Astra, Star Wars 9
3 Nominations - Joker, The Lighthouse
2 Nominations - A Beautiful Day / Neighborhood, The Farewell, Pain & Glory, Avengers: Endgame...
                         ...Rocketman, Toy Story 4, Judy, Frozen II, The Lion King
1 Nomination  - The Two Popes, Harriet, Hustlers, Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey...
                        ...and all other international / documentary / animated nominees

[T'Chenka]

And who do you think will be the nominee for best supporting actor for Irishman according to you? Pacino or Pesci?

I haven't seen it yet, but I'm reading a lot of people saying Pacino and a lot saying Pesci. It's a toss up. Voters might feel the same and end up voting Tom Hanks instead, just so they don't have to pick one over the other. I personally support Dafoe in The Lighthouse, but I don't think it'll happen.

[T'Chenka]

FORD V FERRARI (no spoilers)

I didn't like this as much as the critics seem to. I'd say it's an above-average film, and probably not praise it further than that, except to say that the acting and sound design were really good. I'm having a hard time articulating why I didn't love it. The pacing / plot movement perhaps. The story progressing from scene to scene to scene didn't "feel organic" as mucg as it felt like a list of plot points that we slowly move down one by one. Does that make sense? Another movie totally different movoe that I had this problem with is Rogue One: A Star Wars Story.

Overall, I recommend the movie if you don't have high expectations, but I don't strongly recommend it.

In terms of the Academy Awards, I'd say Joker absolutely deserves to be the 8th or 9th or 10th Best Picture nominee if this one of the few movies it's competing against for that spot. Due to "Oscar politics" (not the left wing right wing stuff) this may get a fairer shake than Joker, which is really too bad. In a fairer world, Joker would get the #8 spot and this would be competing for #9 or #10 with Bombshell and The Two Popes (with an outside chance for The Farewell or A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood). This should be a front runner for Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing, with a shot at Best Editing and an outside shot at Best Actor (Christian Bale).

[T'Chenka]

Joker wins Golden Frog, The Two Popes wins Silver Frog at EnergaCamerimage

This is a Polish festival where the Golden Frog winners often go on to Oscar nominations for the category of Best Cinematography. Joker has been talked about as maybe getting a nomination in this category or maybe just missing. The Two Popes has been in I guess the top 15 films talked about for this award? But not top 5 in most predictions. We'll see if this is the beginning of The Two Popes gaining momentum for a Best Cinematograpgy nomination or not.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/behind-screen/camerimage-joker-wins-golden-frog-1255133

[T'Chenka]

Just saw The Report last night.  This was a phenomenal movie that - despite seemingly having Oscar bait written all over it - is really a one of those rare movies that everyone should see.  There’s reading about what we did to detainees and then there’s seeing a guy get water boarded or mock-buried alive in a wooden coffin.  The attempted CIA coverup (including its efforts to frame a Senate staffer using trumped up charges) are a whole horror story unto themselves.  Naturally most of the CIA officers involved were promoted and one of the top ones later became general counsel at AIG b/c of course she did   This movie should really be shown in every high school American history class, but obviously that’s never gonna happen.

This movie probably isn’t more than a long-shot play for a nomination in BP, best adapted screenplay (probably its best chance for a nom), and maybe best editing.  However, it really deserves to be a top contender in numerous categories.  This is a movie that needed to be made and will absolutely horrify anyone with a soul...and I say that as someone who was in high school and college when this was coming out.  It’s not preachy either, it just shines a light on some of the monsters on our side.

5/5 - Highly recommended, then tell your friends to go see it

Sounds great! Most theaters aren't playing it, sadly.


There is SOME talk of Annette Benning getting a Best Supporting Actress nomination as well, but she's gotta beat out two of Lopez, Mackenzie and the grandma from The Farewell (always forget her name). Dern, Pugh and Robbie seem to be fairly locked in already.

[T'Chenka]

The new Netflix holiday "Santa origin story" movie Klaus was pretty good, and better than I expected. The locks are Toy Story 4, Frozen 2 and How To Train Your Dragon 3, but I'm now hoping Klaus gets a Best Animated Feature nomination. I haven't seen Weathering With You, I Lost My Body or Abominable yet, but it was definitely better than Missing Link, which itself was a half-decent movie.

[T'Chenka]

2017 Oscar race and The Shape Of Water

Just watched The Shape Of Water again, and I think I agree with the Academy awarding this Best Picture in the 2017 competition. I can also see very good arguments for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, Phantom Thread and Call Me By Your Name winning. I agree with Lady Bird and Get Out receiving Best Picture nominations, but I'm glad they weren't awarded over (IMO) better films. I'm 50/50 on whether Dunkirk and Darkest Hour should have been nominated or not, though they are very well made films. The Post should not have been nominated IMO. I think Bladerunner 2049, The Wife and especially Logan should have received nominations.

The Shape Of Water (winner)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Logan (my addition)
Phantom Thread
Call Me By Your Name

Lady Bird
Get Out
Bladerunner 2049 (my addition)

Darkest Hour
The Wife (my addition)
Dunkirk (my subtraction)

The Post (my subtraction)

[T'Chenka]

Since we're also doing 2017 and that's a year which 1) was a pretty great one for film and 2) where I have some rather...unusual thoughts about what should've won/been nominated (especially the latter), here are my thoughts on that year in the major categories:

You really hated Logan and Call Me By Your Name, huh? I wasn't a huge fan of Call Me By Your Name overall - I thought it was good but overrated - but the craftsmanship (cinematography, directing, acting) was objectively very good. Logan I absolutely loved, but it's harder to objectively argue it's merits without inserting my biases, so I won't do that.

[T'Chenka]

A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD (no spoilers)

This movie is a lot more experimental and outside-of-the-box than I thought it would be, and that's mostly a good thing.  From a story perspective however, it feels like a TV movie but with way above average budget, cinematography, acting, and some very interesting creative decisions that I can't get into in a non-spoiler review. The "TV movie plot" aspect is my biggest criticism here, because IMO it prevents this movie from being "great" or "amazing" or "a classic", but there's so much more to this movie besides the plot. It's an emotional and inspirational film and some may cry.

When it comes to acting, Matthew Rhys was just as good as Tom Hanks IMO. I actually feel like Hanks was slightly miscast, but made it work well enough regardless. Hanks may or may not deserve an Oscar nomination, but he was goox. IMO he doesn't deserve to win the Oscar as his performance wasn't mindblowing.

The marketing for this movie is misleading as well, be warned. The movie as a whole is all about Mr. Rodgers, but the man himself is a supporting character in the plot. I prefer not to elaborate for non-spoiler purposes.

VERDICT - I can see some mainstream movie watchers disliking this for being a drama and not being a Fred Rogers bio-pic. If you like "Oscar drama" type movies, you will probably appreciate this movie and like it. I'm going to give this a "B+" rating. There are lots of great elements that make me want to go higher, but the plot just didn't do enough for me.

OSCAR NOMINATIONS - This is going to miss out on Best Picture, Best Director and Best Actor IMO. There is a good chance that Tom Hanks is nominated for Best Supporting Actor, 50/50 chance for Best Adapted Screenplay and an outside shot at Best Cinematography.

[T'Chenka]

I accidentally deleted my The Irishman review trying to post my brand new Knives Out review. Damn.

Cut-and-paste recap from another thread:


THE IRISHMAN (no spoilers)

I posted a short spoiler-free review in the Oscars & Awards Season thread.

Basically, I view it as a very good film that deserves a lot of the praise, but there are several aspects that I think are being over-rated, that ARE very good but are not amazing and incredible. Some of those would be Pacino's performance, the cinematography, how the film delivers the message it's trying to deliver, and the entire film overall. I think major praise is fully deserved in regards to DeNiro, the de-aging special effects, and the pacing of this 3.5 hour film.

Some people are saying masterpiece, but I would give a score of "A minus" or possibly "A".

FINAL SCORE
A minus

[T'Chenka]

KNIVES OUT (no spoilers)

Hard to talk about this without spoilers. First off, I have to say, this is a political movie that you can also enjoy if you ignore the politics. The politics seem like small, unimportant window dressing, and the movie works 100% without them and without focusing on them. If you want to though, you can peel back all sorts of layers here and see all kinds of politics. I can't discuss any of that because of spoilers, but maybe that's something that could entice you to go and see this (very good) film. It's a murder mystery whodunit with thriller elements and the all-star cast does a good job. The main character played by Ana De Armas is probably the best performance.

DECENT BUT NOT GREAT
- Cinematography
- The cast. ALL good acting but nobody was incredible
- The twists and turns are pretty good
- I really liked Toni Collette's performance

DESERVES A LOT OF PRAISE
- Ana De Armas was good, deserves praise for pulling off a lead role
- The subtle politics was icing on the cake. Your Mileage May Vary

FINAL SCORE
A minus

OSCAR TALK
The one Oscar that Knives Out has a 50/50 shot at being nominated for is Best Original Screenplay. Some other non-Oscar awards have a Best Ensemble Cast award, and this has a good shot at those awards for sure. Ana De Armas was pretty good, but probably not good enough to get a Best Actress nomination in a year full of good female lead performances. There's some small chance that Daniel Craig gets nominated for Best Supporting Actor, but it's a long shot.

[T'Chenka]

J'AI PERDU MON CORPS (I LOST MY BODY) [Netflix] (no spoilers)

This is a well-made and well-animated artsy fartsy French film following two plots - the story of a young arab Frenchman living in Paris and the story of a walking severed hand with a mind of it's own. It is a good movie and I would recommend it either strongly or not at all, depending on how you feel about artsy European films. Make sure you watch it it's original audio of French and use subtitles. When I watched it, my Netflix account started me off in an english dub, which is not the way the actual movie was envisioned, written or voice-acted.

THINGS THAT WILL BE DIVISIVE
- Does the artsy stuff help the story or waste time?
- What are the deeper meanings here? Expressed well enough?
- The third act

DESERVES A LOT OF PRAISE
- The animation
- The scene where he first meets Martinez
- The way the film expresses moods and emotions

FINAL SCORE
B plus

OSCAR TALK
This is only going for Best Animated Film I think, and is expected to be a top 7 movie (nominated or just misses out). I think this is the kind of film the Academy LOVES, so my personal opinion is that it will get nominated by beating out Missing Link and one of Klaus / Weathering With You. I actually see this as a long shot to win the Oscar over Toy Story 4. It's pretty unlikely but IMO not impossible.

[T'Chenka]

I saw A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.  I liked it well enough, I guess, but it wasn't an amazing movie by any means.  Really good message though!  It was a perfect tribute to Fred Rogers and what he stood for.   It might be a contender for an Adapted Screenplay nomination given how weak the field is this year as far as #OscarMovies go, but I think that it probably doesn't get nominated in any category.  It just isn't going to get many #1 votes and the Oscar nominations are determined by the number of first choice votes.

3/5

A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood's reddit Oscar nominations chatter says...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - 75% chance or even higher
BEST PICTURE - top 15 film but not in the top 7 (only 8/9/10 get nominated)
BEST DIRECTOR - top 10 film but not in the top 6 (only 5 get nomonated)

[T'Chenka]

I saw A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.  I liked it well enough, I guess, but it wasn't an amazing movie by any means.  Really good message though!  It was a perfect tribute to Fred Rogers and what he stood for.   It might be a contender for an Adapted Screenplay nomination given how weak the field is this year as far as #OscarMovies go, but I think that it probably doesn't get nominated in any category.  It just isn't going to get many #1 votes and the Oscar nominations are determined by the number of first choice votes.

3/5

A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood's reddit Oscar nominations chatter says...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - 75% chance or even higher
BEST PICTURE - top 15 film but not in the top 7 (only 8/9/10 get nominated)
BEST DIRECTOR - top 10 film but not in the top 6 (only 5 get nomonated)

I mean, is there really any difference between this and Tom Hanks’ general screen persona?  I feel like this is the same performance he’s given in at least half of his post-Cast Away roles.

IMO yes there's a difference, and the best parts of Hanks' performance were subtle. That said, I'm not as huge of a fan of his performance as others are. In my opinion though, it's a weak year for Best Supporting Actor. Nobody has really impressed me outside of performances that might not even be nominated (Willam Dafoe, maybe Johnathan Pryce based on the trailer I saw).

[T'Chenka]

Of all the different awarfs ceremonies nominees and winners that tend to indicate who will get Oscar nominations, the Golden Globes are probably the most relevant, followed by the BAFTAs, followed by the Critics Choice Awards and PGAs. We'll be getting the Golden Globe nominees announcement tomorrow, and today we have the Critics Choice Awards nominees.

In 2020, from early January to mid January, we have those two awards ceremonies, the other two sets of nominees announced, the PGA awards and the Oscar nominees announced.

Early February is the BAFTAs and then the Oscars.


Critics Choice Awards nominees

BEST PICTURE
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Parasite
1917
Little Women
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Jojo Rabbit
Ford V Ferrari
Joker
Uncut Gems

BEST DIRECTOR
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Parasite
1917
Little Women
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Uncut Gems

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Marriage Story
Parasite
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
The Farewell
Knives Out

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman
Little Women
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
The Two Popes
A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood

BEST ACTOR
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Joker
Uncut Gems
Pain & Glory
Dolemite Is My Name

BEST ACTRESS
Marriage Story
Little Women
Bombshell
The Farewell
Us
Judy
Harriet

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The Irishman (Pesce)
The Irishman (Pacino)
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
The Two Popes
A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood
The Lighthouse

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Marriage Story
Little Women
Jojo Rabbit
Bombshell
The Farewell
Hustlers

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS (Non-Oscar category)
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Jojo Rabbit (Davis)
Jojo Rabbit (Mackenzie)
Jojo Rabbit (Yates)
Honey Boy
Us

BEST ENSEMBLE CAST (Non-Oscar category)
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Parasite
Little Women
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Bombshell
Knives Out

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Parasite
Pain & Glory
Portrait Of A Lady On Fire
Les Miserables
Atlantics

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Toy Story 4
Frozen II
How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Missing Link
Abominable

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Irishman
1917
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Ford V Ferrari
The Lighthouse

BEST EDITING
The Irishman
Parasite
1917
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Ford V Ferrari
Uncut Gems

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Irishman
1917
Ford V Ferrari
Avengers: Endgame
Ad Astra
The Aeronauts
The Lion King

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Irishman
Parasite
1917
Little Women
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Joker
Downton Abbey

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Irishman
Little Women
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Rocketman
Dolemite Is My Name
Downton Abbey

BEST HAIR & MAKEUP
The Irishman
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Bombshell
Joker
Rocketman
Dolemite Is My Name
Judy

BEST SCORE
The Irishman
Marriage Story
1917
Little Women
Joker
Us

BEST SONG
Rocketman
Harriet
Wild Rose
Frozen II
The Lion King
Aladdin
Breakthrough

BEST ACTION MOVIE (Non-Oscar category)
1917
Ford V Ferrari
Avengers: Endgame
Spider-Man: Far From Home
John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum

BEST COMEDY (Non-Oscar category)
Jojo Rabbit
The Farewell
Knives Out
Booksmart
Dolemite Is My Name

BEST SCI-FI OR HORROR MOVIE (Non-Oscar category)
Avengers: Endgame
Ad Astra
Us
Midsommar


My thoughts in the top 13 contenders...

- The Irishman did great
- Marriage Story doing good but no Editing no Cinematography
- Parasite doing well but no Cimematography and only Ensemble for acting
- 1917 doing as expected
- Little Women doing as expected
- Once Upon A Time In Hollywood doing good, no snubs
- Jojo Rabbit did poorly here, at least it got Screenplay and Supporting Actress
- Ford V Ferrari only gets Picture and technical stuff, no Actor
- Joker no Director no cimematography but overall did okay
- Bombshell doing bad, only acting and hair makeup
- The Two Popes did poorly, only Screenplay and Supporting Actor
- The Farewell doing as expected
- A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood did poorly, only Screenplay and Supporting Actor

- Uncut Gems did VERY well, has some shot at a Best Picture Oscar nomination now


If this ends up having some bearing on the final Oscars results, the Best Picture race would now look like this:

FRONT-RUNNERS
The Irishman, Marriage Story, Parasite

COULD WIN BEST PICTURE
1917, Little Women, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

WILL BE NOMINATED
Jojo Rabbit

JUST GET IN OR JUST MISS
Ford V Ferrari, Joker, The Farewell, Uncut Gems

WILDCARD TO GET IN
Bombshell, The Two Popes, A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood

[T'Chenka]

My thoughts in the top 13 contenders...

- The Irishman did great
- Marriage Story doing good but no Editing no Cinematography
- Parasite doing well but no Cimematography and only Ensemble for acting
- 1917 doing as expected
- Little Women doing as expected
- Once Upon A Time In Hollywood doing good, no snubs
- Jojo Rabbit did poorly here, at least it got Screenplay and Supporting Actress
- Ford V Ferrari only gets Picture and technical stuff, no Actor
- Joker no Director no cimematography but overall did okay
- Bombshell doing bad, only acting and hair makeup
- The Two Popes did poorly, only Screenplay and Supporting Actor
- The Farewell doing as expected
- A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood did poorly, only Screenplay and Supporting Actor

- Uncut Gems did VERY well, has some shot at a Best Picture Oscar nomination now


If this ends up having some bearing on the final Oscars results, the Best Picture race would now look like this:

FRONT-RUNNERS
The Irishman, Marriage Story, Parasite

COULD WIN BEST PICTURE
1917, Little Women, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

WILL BE NOMINATED
Jojo Rabbit

JUST GET IN OR JUST MISS
Ford V Ferrari, Joker, The Farewell, Uncut Gems

WILDCARD TO GET IN
Bombshell, The Two Popes, A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood

Gotta disagree, this group was never going to be among Jojo Rabbit’s strongest supporters whereas Parasite needs to absolute clean up with critics groups to have any shot at winning Best Picture.  At this point the contenders for a BP win are (in order)

Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (Hollywood loves seeing itself romanticized)
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit (this is definitely the “everyone at the Thanksgiving table will like it even if only some of people love it” contender)
Marriage Story (if it gets best director and best editing nods...watch out)

Marriage Story is my hope to win Best Picture, on the strength of Original Screenplay, Actor, Actress and some technical Oscars. The only movie I'd prefer at this stage is Parasite, which is more of a long shot. To win Best Picture, Parasite like you said needs to win Best Director or have both of Marriage Story and The Irishman underperform, or both. The third option in my mind is the most likely, where The Irishman wins based on Adapted Screenplay, acting, and technical. If The Irishman gets both Adapted Screenplay and Director, the game is over for everybody else.

Outside of those 3, my gut tells me Once Upon A Time In Hollywood isn't happening and I would kind of be okay with Jojo Rabbit being this year's version of Crash / Green Nook and winning over better films. I loved Jojo Rabbit so much.

Parasite will definitely be nominated, but right now I doubt it has more than an outside shot although a Best Director win is still possible.  Any acting nominations seem extremely unlikely though tbh.

I'm still holding out hope on acting, but it's looking unlikely.

Also not to nitpick, but Jojo Rabbit did get nominated for Best Picture

Thanks I missed that. This is good news IMO.