Oppenheimer wins 7 Oscars (Best Picture) (film & awards)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The only film I've seen so far that feels like a strong best picture contender is Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and that's largely because Hollywood loves movies about Hollywood (The Artist is among the most glaring examples of this causing weird Oscar results).  And that's a shame because Booksmart, Pet Sematary, Ready or Not, The Lighthouse, Joker, Us, Child's Play, and Toy Story 4 were all much better movies.  

Alas, I'm pretty sure that aside from a Best Actor nomination for Phoenix's performance in Joker and a Best Animated Film win for Toy Story 4, none of those films are going to get nominated for anything above-the-line  

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was basically 1/3 self-indulgent snoozefest, 1/3 perfectly serviceable (but decidedly inoffensive) "Movie about Movies," and then 1/3 great film that kept reminding me of how much I wished the film's B-plot about the Manson family was the main focus of the movie (although the parts with DiCaprio's character trying to shoot that one guest villain scene in some western TV pilot were perfect).  Honestly, it's one of Tarantino's weaker outings.

Anyway, I'll end by saying that if you have any interest in seeing a smart, unpredictable, and extremely entertaining horror comedy whose satire about income inequality is (despite the dumbed down, spoiler-laden trailers) in the same ballpark as Get Out's satire of limousine liberal racism, you should really check out Ready or Not.  It's one of the real hidden gems of 2019 (I was lucky enough to go in blind because I was bored and there was nothing else remotely interesting playing nearby).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think Star Wars The Rise of Skywalker too will be nominated fir awards like best sound, for example like The Force Awakens.

Some chance to ne nominated:
- Best Score
- Best Sound Mixing
- Best Visual Effects
- Best Production Design

Long shot but not totally impossible to be nominated:
- Best Original Screenplay
- Best Cinematography
- Best Editing
- Best Sound Editing

- I have a pretty hard time seeing another Star Wars movie come anywhere close to repeating A New Hope’s feat of earning a screenplay nod, plus it’d be contending in the best adapted screenplay category.  Best Editing is probably too much of a reach given how that has been increasingly treated as pseudo-above-the-line award by voters trying to find another place to vote for there preferred BP winner (why, IDK, but it seems to be a trend).  

- A Best Cinematography nod is always a possibility with a film like Star Wars - especially given the tendency of the Oscars to sometimes treat this as a second Best Visual Effects category (ex: Avatar and Gravity’s otherwise inexplicable wins) - but it largely depends on the strength of the field.  The field doesn’t seem weak enough this year on paper, although it’s also not strong enough for me to rule out the possibility before Star Wars: Episode 2019 has even come out, especially when I’ve yet to see so many of the top contenders like 1917 and The Irishman.

What I can say is that a Best Cinematography win is highly unlikely at best, 1917 will probably be tough to beat here if Mendes actually made a good war film in one long tracking shot and even if the film is a dud quality-wise, voters may still want to reward the technical achievement of doing a war movie - of all things - in one shot.  Now, if 1917 is “only” a few long tracking shots seamlessly made to look like a single one, that’s another story since Birdman, The Haunting of Hill House, It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, and season one of True Detective would’ve all beaten 1917 to the punch by over a year (albeit in different genres).  Plus, there’s also The Irishman if voters want to go the “second Best Visual Effects category” route.

- Otherwise, I completely agree with your assessment of Star Wars’ chances.  

- Btw, could you remind me what the difference is between sound mixing and sound editing?  I always forget this and end up getting them confused.  IIRC, one is sound effects during filming and the other is sound added in post, but I could be misremembering.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

For what deserved to win/be nominated in 2018, my thoughts:

Best Picture
1) Hereditary
2) BlacKkKlansman
3) Boy Erased
4) Detainment (this may be the best short film ever made, the only other one I've seen that comes close is Everything Will be Okay)
5) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
6) Green Book
7) Eighth Grade
Paddington 2
9) A Star is Born
10) Christopher Robin (I saw this one on Amazon Prime and was sobbing like a baby for much of the runtime, by time it got to the heffalump trap scene I almost had to shut the movie off because the first half was so sad).

Best Actor
1) Ely Solan - Detainment
2) John David Washington - BlacKkKlansman
3) Christian Bale – Vice
4) Bradley Cooper - A Star is Born
5) Lucas Hedges - Boy Erased

Best Actress
1) Toni Collette - Hereditary
2) Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3) Lady Gaga - A Star is Born
4) Elsie Fisher - Eighth Grade
5) Saoirse Ronan - Mary Queen of Scots

Best Director
1) Ari Aster - Hereditary
2) Joel Edgerton - Boy Erased
3) Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman
4) Bradley Cooper - A Star is Born
5) Vincent Lambe - Detainment

Best Adapted Screenplay
1) Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, and Kevin Willmott - BlacKkKlansman
2) Joel Edgerton – Boy Erased
3) Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4) Rhett Reese, Ryan Reynolds, and Paul Wernick - Deadpool 2
5) 
Simon Farnaby and Paul King - Paddington 2


Best Original Screenplay
1) Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, and Nick Vallelonga – Green Book
2) Bo Burnham - Eighth Grade
3) Ari Aster - Hereditary
4) Vincent Lambe - Detainment
5) Paul Schrader - First Reformed

Best Supporting Actor
1) Russell Crowe - Boy Erased
2) Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3) Alex Woolf - Hereditary
4) Timothée Chalamet - Beautiful Boy
5) Daniel Kaluuya – Widows (the bowling alley scene alone was a masterclass in acting).

Best Supporting Actress
1) Amy Adams – Vice
2) Claire Foy - First Man
3) Milly Shapiro - Hereditary
4) Margo Robbie - Mary Queen of Scots
5) Olivia Colman - The Favourite (this was a supporting role imo)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Saw three Oscar contenders over the weekend: Jojo Rabbit*, Parasite, and Where is My Roy Cohn?

- Where is my Roy Cohn? is definitely a contender for a best documentary nomination, but I was disappointed that I didn’t learn more about him.  However, the film does a better job than most docs or biopics of seamlessly weaving together all the key points in Cohn’s life without it feeling like checking off boxes.  I may’ve simply known too much about him going in to get the full effect.  3/5

- Parasite: It was good and I’m glad I saw it, but I also think this movie has been waaaaaaaaaay overhyped.  It’s really good, has some great twists, interesting social commentary about human nature, and was surprisingly funny.  Without spoiling anything, I’ve never heard of a home invasion film being done in anything remotely like what Parasite does, so that was good.  With an aggressive campaign, it should be able to get a BP nomination (probably not a win), has a shot at a Best Director nomination due to its passionate fanbase, and will definitely get a nomination (*maybe* even a consolation win, but I doubt it) for best original screenplay.  I could also see a nomination for best editing, but that feels like a longshot.  

Ultimately, Parasite is a good film, but I was hoping for a classic and it just isn’t.  It’s a smart, creative, well-made thriller with a good sense of humor and there’s no shame in that.  3.5/5 (it probably deserves a better rating, but the #InstantClassic hype probably set me up for disappointment when it turned out to be “only” a good movie).  

- Jojo Rabbit: This was an excellent movie.  It has some problems (such as the mom - who just doesn’t work at all as a character - and MacKenzie’s character who feels more like a plot device than an actual person), but this was a great movie.  Definitely a contender for BP and has an outside shot at winning although the (grossly unfair) Green Book comparisons may keep it from actually winning.  Best Director and Best Supporting Actor (Watiti) nominations are both possible, but really feel like long-shots (especially the latter), definitely a lock for Adapted Screenplay (which will probably come down to this and The Irishman competing for the win).  

The kid who plays the lead gives an absolutely amazing performance that runs the full emotional gauntlet flawlessly and while he certainly deserves a Best Actor nomination (maybe even a win), I highly doubt he’ll be nominated  Hopefully this is a star-making role because this kid has truly amazing emotional range.  His performance alone is more than worth the price of admission.  Sam Rockwell (gets a good character arc) and Stephen Merchant (really creepy) are also quite good in smaller parts, as is the kid who plays Jojo’s best friend.  Thomasin Mackenzie was good, but her character was really more of a plot device.  

This is a hilarious, well-made, first rate movie with a great message.  Also, it’s not really about WWII/the Nazis so much as it is about a 10 year old German boy coming of age during that period.  5/5

*A really good movie and one that - unlike the deeply offensive Holocaust/death camp “comedy” Life is Beautiful - understands the difference between making a comedy set in Nazi Germany (you have to tread lightly, but it can absolutely be done and isn’t an inherently offensive concept) and a comedy about the Holocaust (which is unacceptable, period, end of story regardless of the film’s merits or lack thereof).  

Mel Brooks himself explicitly recognized this distinction when he spoke about how grotesque and offensive Life is Beautiful (a comedy by a gentile writer-Director which posits that you can even make even a Nazi death camp seem like a fun-filled adventure as long as you use the power of imagination and keep your sense of childlike wonder).  Brooks argued that you cannot make a joke about everything and argued some things should be off-limits, especially to those with no connection to the pain the events caused in real life.  He noted that while most Jews would be fine with a post-WWII comedy like The Producers mocking the absurd self-indulgent, decidedly effeminate OTT theatricality of Nazi propaganda and certain fascistic symbols (ex: the de facto dance choreography which was used in Triumph of the Will), that was very different from making a whimsical feel good comedy about Jews trying to survive a death camp (Life is Beautiful).  It’s the difference between mocking the perpetrators of a genocide through satire and trivializing the actual suffering which occurred during the genocide through whimsical feel-goodism.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

One more update, I finally saw 'Blindspotting' yesterday. Holy s***! Now this was a snub! This is the other best movie I have ever seen of 2018. It's right up there with 'Won't You Be My Neighbor.'

It's like 'Friday' meets 'Do the Right Thing,' but for this generation. It explores themes of class, criminal justice, culture, gentrification, identity, race, and more all in a very organic way with just as much as humor as there is meaningful, gripping drama. Massively underrated!

Blindspotting's biggest problem BY FAR is that not enough people have seen it. Great film that I always recommend to others. For whatever it's worth, I have it at #13 on my rankings for 2018 films.

Huh.  I'll have to check it out.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So I saw The Irishman and - unpopular opinion alert - I didn’t think it was anything special (and I say that as someone who usually really enjoys Scorsese’s films).  Don’t get me wrong, it wasn’t bad and it definitely had its strengths.  Joe Pesci gives an excellent, highly restrained performance as an elderly mob boss who felt like the most believable character* in the film.  The de-aging effects didn’t really work with Al Pacino and I often felt like I was watching Al Pacino playing Jimmy Hoffa as opposed to watching Jimmy Hoffa, but he had such great energy that it wasn’t really a problem.  Bobby Cannavale (Sheeran’s first boss), Ray Romano (a corrupt mob lawyer), and especially Stephen Graham (Anthony “Tony Pro” Provenzano) were also good in smaller supporting roles. 

On a technical level, the cinematography was great, the de-aging technology worked really well with Pesci generally and with De Niro’s face.  The film had great production values (it better given its budget ).  There was also a great WATN running joke that’s too good to spoil and gets funnier every time. 

The biggest problem is the movie’s length.  3 and a half hours is a long time and you feel it.  The movie is okay quality-wise, but once you get to hours and realize you’ve got another hour and a half of meh, it feels more and more like a chore.  It’s also a pretty slow movie.  Plus De Niro still moves like an old person, so that was really distracting.

*And that’s the right word since the film is based on a book about the now largely discredited claims of a mid-level union racketeer with delusions of grandeur.  As such, much of what happens is heavily fictionalized, sometimes to an absurd degree.  While this generally wasn’t a problem, three things required more suspension of disbelief than I could give: specifically, the film’s 1) implication the mafia had JFK assassinated, 2) claim that Frank Sheeran killed Joe Gallo on Bill Bufilino’s orders when in fact neither man was even tangentially connected to Gallo’s murder or the events that caused it, and 3) its depiction of Joe Gallo as a boorish, hot-headed John Gotti type who went rogue when he had Joe Columbo shot when in fact he was by most accounts a very well-mannered, cultured, and genuinely intellectual individual who - while a fierce inter-family rival of Columbo’s - didn’t have Columbo whacked until after he was given permission to do so by the bosses of three other NY families b/c Columbo spat in Carlo Gambino’s face and screamed obscenities at him during a public argument.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Just saw The Report last night.  This was a phenomenal movie that - despite seemingly having Oscar bait written all over it - is really a one of those rare movies that everyone should see.  There’s reading about what we did to detainees and then there’s seeing a guy get water boarded or mock-buried alive in a wooden coffin.  The attempted CIA coverup (including its efforts to frame a Senate staffer using trumped up charges) are a whole horror story unto themselves.  Naturally most of the CIA officers involved were promoted and one of the top ones later became general counsel at AIG b/c of course she did   This movie should really be shown in every high school American history class, but obviously that’s never gonna happen.

This movie probably isn’t more than a long-shot play for a nomination in BP, best adapted screenplay (probably its best chance for a nom), and maybe best editing.  However, it really deserves to be a top contender in numerous categories.  This is a movie that needed to be made and will absolutely horrify anyone with a soul...and I say that as someone who was in high school and college when this was coming out.  It’s not preachy either, it just shines a light on some of the monsters on our side.

5/5 - Highly recommended, then tell your friends to go see it

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Just saw The Report last night.  This was a phenomenal movie that - despite seemingly having Oscar bait written all over it - is really a one of those rare movies that everyone should see.  There’s reading about what we did to detainees and then there’s seeing a guy get water boarded or mock-buried alive in a wooden coffin.  The attempted CIA coverup (including its efforts to frame a Senate staffer using trumped up charges) are a whole horror story unto themselves.  Naturally most of the CIA officers involved were promoted and one of the top ones later became general counsel at AIG b/c of course she did   This movie should really be shown in every high school American history class, but obviously that’s never gonna happen.

This movie probably isn’t more than a long-shot play for a nomination in BP, best adapted screenplay (probably its best chance for a nom), and maybe best editing.  However, it really deserves to be a top contender in numerous categories.  This is a movie that needed to be made and will absolutely horrify anyone with a soul...and I say that as someone who was in high school and college when this was coming out.  It’s not preachy either, it just shines a light on some of the monsters on our side.

5/5 - Highly recommended, then tell your friends to go see it

Sounds great! Most theaters aren't playing it, sadly.


There is SOME talk of Annette Benning getting a Best Supporting Actress nomination as well, but she's gotta beat out two of Lopez, Mackenzie and the grandma from The Farewell (always forget her name). Dern, Pugh and Robbie seem to be fairly locked in already.

Honestly, while the makeup team did a great job making her look just like Feinstein, it really wasn’t a large or meaty enough role to merit serious awards consideration, especially given that it’s not exactly a weak field this time around.  The only real acting play this film has is Adam Driver for Best Actor and while he is excellent, I’m pretty sure he’s gonna get nominated for Marriage Story instead. 

Also, I am not at all a car person (never have been, I just wanna get from point A to point B safely with good fuel economy without paying more than I should for the car, I don’t care if it has all these random new features or not), but I saw Ford v Ferrari and loved it.  Is it the best film of the year?  No.  Is it an excellent film that deserves a BP nomination?  Absolutely, one of the best sports films I’ve ever seen (especially if we’re talking non-boxing sports films).  While it’s not as smart or insightful as Rush, it still has a solid script which includes two fascinating characters: Ken Miles and Henry Ford II. 

While the race scenes are riveting (so much so that during the Daytona one mid-way through the film, I actually stood up in the theater in excitement at the end before remembering where I was lol), the film’s ace in the hole is Ken Miles.  He’s a very interesting guy and Bale did a great job playing him.  I won’t spoil the end, but at first it reminded me of another classic sports film...and then something happened that I never would’ve seen coming in a million years and really hit me like a ton of bricks.  I started tearing up in the theater.  Also, Tracy Letts was excellent as Henry Ford II (stole every scene he was in before the final race) and the scene where we see his reaction upon learning of a particularly cutting insult Enzo Ferrari directed at him was a real masterclass in acting.

That said, Matt Damon’s performance was pretty meh and has gotten much more praise than it deserved.  It was just him using an awkward-sounding southern accent while playing a pretty bland, generic protagonist.  The film’s Carroll Shelby lacked the edge it needed to make the character work and a lot of the blame for that lies with Damon.  The problem is all the more glaring in his scenes with Bale, whose performance has this in spades and transcends the “non-threatening lovable rogue” stock character in a way Damon was seemingly unable to. 

I think it has a shot at a BP nomination, but it’s lost a lot of momentum in that race and I doubt it has any chance of winning at this point.  Bale has a shot at a Best Actor nomination, but it’ll depend on the strength of the field and whether he can get a SAG nomination.  If so, then he’s probably a serious contender for the fourth or fifth slot, but if he can’t crack the field there then he’s probably gonna get snubbed...probably.  Mangold did a great job directing (easily the best of his career thus far), but he’s got no chance of even a nomination.  I think the film will be a serious contender for Best Editing (though a win - while possible - definitely feels like a reach right now), nominations in both sound categories (b/c Hollywood doesn’t know the difference and just treats them as a catch-all “best sound”), and has an outside shot at a best cinematography nomination depending on how the field shakes out and how many people confuse visual effects with Cinematography (as the academy is wont to do). 

Don’t be surprised if the film over-performs at the Globes and then gets bupkis everywhere else.  If anyone is gonna respond to this movie on the circuit, it’ll be Globes voters (although to be clear, it’s not a sure thing that they will).

I give Ford v Ferrari a solid 4/5.  If you go in expecting an excellent sports movie that will entertain you for the night, you won’t be disappointed.  Just don’t expect anything more than that

Note: I went in with pretty low expectations, so that may well have caused me to be a bit more positive than I would otherwise have been.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Since we're also doing 2017 and that's a year which 1) was a pretty great one for film and 2) where I have some rather...unusual thoughts about what should've won/been nominated (especially the latter), here are my thoughts on that year in the major categories:

Best Picture
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Get Out
3. World of Tomorrow - Episode Two: The Burden of Other People’s Thoughts
4. Wonder (This movie really didn't get its due, but it spoke to me on a very personal level and was one of the year's true hidden gems...or perhaps not so hidden since it shocked many by becoming one of 2017's big sleeper hits, speaking of which...)
5. IT: Chapter 1 (I know movies like this don't usually get nominated, but this was a great movie which managed to be both a near-perfect adaptation of a well-known doorstopper and very much its own thing)
6. Coco
7. Lady Bird
8. Okja (Fun fact: While I ultimately fell off the wagon, this movie inspired me to try to become a vegetarian and I went literally eight and a half months without eating any meat; talk about a powerful movie )
9. Detroit (another surprisingly under-appreciated film during award season)
10. I, Tonya

Best Actor
1. James Franco - The Disaster Artist (I'm not gonna complain about a sex predator not even getting nominated, but on the merits of performance quality, Franco deserved the win)
2. James McAvoy - Split (career best work completely overlooked )
3. Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out
4. Jacob Tremblay - Wonder (I thought he was much better here than in Room tbh)
5. Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour (Oldman was good, but the makeup did some of the work here and I feel like a lot of the awards were really for "best performance by someone who is ‘overdue’ in an Oscar-bait role” b/c he wasn't "give him every award ever" level good in Darkest Hour, not by a long shot)

Best Actress
1. Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

2. Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
3. Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
4. Ahn Seo-hyun - Okja (an under-appreciated performance in an under-appreciated movie)
5. Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water

Best Director
1. Andrés Muschietti - IT: Chapter 1 (his direction is part of why this film worked as well as it did)
2. Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird
4. Jordan Peele - Get Out
5. Lee Unkrich - Coco

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Don Hertzfeldt - World of Tomorrow - Episode Two: The Burden of Other People’s Thoughts
2. Stephen Chbosky, Steve Conrad, and Jack Thorne - Wonder (The screenwriters of this film got robbed; the fact that Logan was nominated instead of Wonder was easily one of the year's worst Oscar snubs)
3. Gary Dauberman, Cary Fukunaga, and Chase Palmer - IT: Chapter 1
4. Scott Neustadter and Michael A. Weber - The Disaster Artist
5. Mike Flanagan and Jeff Howard - Gerald’s Game

Best Original Screenplay
1. Jordan Peele - Get Out
2. Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Matthew Aldrich, Jason Katz, Adrian Molina, and Lee Unkrich - Coco
4. Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird
5. Mark Boal - Detroit (although there’s definitely an argument for giving Okja the fifth slot)

Best Supporting Actor
1. Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Will Poulter - Detroit (I suppose the Oscars were never gonna nominated two performances as violently racist cops in the same year in the same category)
3. Harrison Ford - Blade Runner 2049
4. Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water
5. Steve Carrell - Battle of the Sexes (so hard to choose between this, Jake Gyllenhaal balls-to-the-walls madcap turn as a washed-up, alcoholic, cartoonishly evil Steve Irwin parody in Okja and Jack Dylan Grazer's hilariously neurotic performance as Eddie in IT: Chapter 1, but Carrell’s scene-stealing, hammy as hell yet surprisingly nuanced take on Bobby Riggs probably deserves the fifth slot most for turning what could’ve easily been a one-note caricature into a three-dimensional, always entertaining, decidedly obnoxious yet just as often sympathetic portrait of flawed man trying to hide his failings behind a MAGA-lite public persona)

Best Supporting Actress
1. Allison Janney - I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
3. Betty Buckley - Split (about 80% of her lines were silly nonsense, but Buckley sold every one of them perfectly and made it look easy in her career best performance; that's right Cats fans, you heard me )
4. Betty Gabriel - Get Out
5. Brooklynn Prince - The Florida Project

Best Animated Film
1. World of Tomorrow - Episode Two: The Burden of Other People’s Thoughts - Don Hertzfeldt
2. Coco - Lee Unkrich
3. The Breadwinner - Nora Twomey
4. Loving Vincent - Dorota Kobiela and Hugh Welchman
5. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie - David Soren

Best Documentary
1. Get Me Roger Stone - Dylan Bank, Daniel DiMauro, and Morgan Pehme  (Great documentary, also far less preachy than I had feared)
2. Icarus - Bryan Fogel
3. Jim & Andy: The Great Beyond - Chris Smith
4. Last Men in Aleppo - Firas Fayyad
5. Kedi - Ceyda Torun

Best Foreign Film
1. Loveless (Russia) - Andrey Zvyagintsev
2. Raw (Belgium) - Julia Ducournau

3. The Square (Sweden) - Ruben Östlund

4. First They Killed my Father (Cambodia) - Angelina Jolie
5. BPM (Beats per Minute) (France) - Robin Campillo

Best Original Score
1. IT: Chapter 1 - Benjamin Wallfisch
 (Another ridiculous Oscar snub)
2. The Shape of Water - Alexandre Desplat
3. Phantom Thread - Jonny Greenwood
4. Okja - Jaeil Jung
5. Darkest Hour - Dario Marianelli

Best Original Song
1. Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez - Remember Me (Coco) (A great example of a song being perfect in the context of the story, much harder than merely writing hummable tunes)
2. Sufjan Stevens - Mystery of Love (Call Me by Your Name) (Probably the only nom the film deserved tbh)
3. Germaine Franco and Adrian Molina - Un Poco Loco (Coco)
4. Bilal and The Roots - It Ain’t Fair (Detroit)
5. Andra Day and Common - Stand Up for Something (Marshall)  (As good a choice to round out the fifth slot as any)

Best Film Editing
1. Wonder - Mark Livolsi
2. Baby Driver - Jonathan Amos and Paul Machliss
3. All the Money in the World - Claire Simpson
4. Dunkirk - Lee Smith
5. Lady Bird - Nick Houy

Best Cinematography
1. IT: Chapter 1 - Chung-hoon Chung
2. Darkest Hour - Bruno Delbonnel
3. Baby Driver - Bill Pope
4. Blade Runner 2049 - Roger Deakins
5. Detroit - Barry Ackroyd

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Since we're also doing 2017 and that's a year which 1) was a pretty great one for film and 2) where I have some rather...unusual thoughts about what should've won/been nominated (especially the latter), here are my thoughts on that year in the major categories:

You really hated Logan and Call Me By Your Name, huh? I wasn't a huge fan of Call Me By Your Name overall - I thought it was good but overrated - but the craftsmanship (cinematography, directing, acting) was objectively very good. Logan I absolutely loved, but it's harder to objectively argue it's merits without inserting my biases, so I won't do that.

- I didn't see what all of the fuss was about Call Me By Your Name tbh.  Then again, I've never really been a fan of Luca Guadagnino or James Ivory's work.  I didn't hate it, it was perfectly serviceable...but 2017 was a very strong year for movies and there are only so many slots to go around (same reason Shape of Water is missing from so many categories)

- I didn't hate Logan, but my understanding is that Wonder and Logan were always battling for the fifth slot that year in Adapted Screenplay

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I saw A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.  I liked it well enough, I guess, but it wasn't an amazing movie by any means.  Really good message though!  It was a perfect tribute to Fred Rogers and what he stood for.   It might be a contender for an Adapted Screenplay nomination given how weak the field is this year as far as #OscarMovies go, but I think that it probably doesn't get nominated in any category.  It just isn't going to get many #1 votes and the Oscar nominations are determined by the number of first choice votes.

3/5

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I saw A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.  I liked it well enough, I guess, but it wasn't an amazing movie by any means.  Really good message though!  It was a perfect tribute to Fred Rogers and what he stood for.   It might be a contender for an Adapted Screenplay nomination given how weak the field is this year as far as #OscarMovies go, but I think that it probably doesn't get nominated in any category.  It just isn't going to get many #1 votes and the Oscar nominations are determined by the number of first choice votes.

3/5

A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood's reddit Oscar nominations chatter says...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - 75% chance or even higher
BEST PICTURE - top 15 film but not in the top 7 (only 8/9/10 get nominated)
BEST DIRECTOR - top 10 film but not in the top 6 (only 5 get nomonated)

I mean, is there really any difference between this and Tom Hanks’ general screen persona?  I feel like this is the same performance he’s given in at least half of his post-Cast Away roles.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Of all the different awarfs ceremonies nominees and winners that tend to indicate who will get Oscar nominations, the Golden Globes are probably the most relevant, followed by the BAFTAs, followed by the Critics Choice Awards and PGAs. We'll be getting the Golden Globe nominees announcement tomorrow, and today we have the Critics Choice Awards nominees.

In 2020, from early January to mid January, we have those two awards ceremonies, the other two sets of nominees announced, the PGA awards and the Oscar nominees announced.

Early February is the BAFTAs and then the Oscars.


Critics Choice Awards nominees

BEST PICTURE
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Parasite
1917
Little Women
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Ford V Ferrari
Joker
Uncut Gems

BEST DIRECTOR
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Parasite
1917
Little Women
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Uncut Gems

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Marriage Story
Parasite
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
The Farewell
Knives Out

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman
Little Women
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
The Two Popes
A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood

BEST ACTOR
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Joker
Uncut Gems
Pain & Glory
Dolemite Is My Name

BEST ACTRESS
Marriage Story
Little Women
Bombshell
The Farewell
Us
Judy
Harriet

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The Irishman (Pesce)
The Irishman (Pacino)
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
The Two Popes
A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood
The Lighthouse

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Marriage Story
Little Women
Jojo Rabbit
Bombshell
The Farewell
Hustlers

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS (Non-Oscar category)
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Jojo Rabbit (Davis)
Jojo Rabbit (Mackenzie)
Jojo Rabbit (Yates)
Honey Boy
Us

BEST ENSEMBLE CAST (Non-Oscar category)
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Parasite
Little Women
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Bombshell
Knives Out

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Parasite
Pain & Glory
Portrait Of A Lady On Fire
Les Miserables
Atlantics

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Toy Story 4
Frozen II
How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Missing Link
Abominable

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Irishman
1917
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Ford V Ferrari
The Lighthouse

BEST EDITING
The Irishman
Parasite
1917
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Ford V Ferrari
Uncut Gems

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Irishman
1917
Ford V Ferrari
Avengers: Endgame
Ad Astra
The Aeronauts
The Lion King

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Irishman
Parasite
1917
Little Women
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Joker
Downton Abbey

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Irishman
Little Women
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Rocketman
Dolemite Is My Name
Downton Abbey

BEST HAIR & MAKEUP
The Irishman
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Bombshell
Joker
Rocketman
Dolemite Is My Name
Judy

BEST SCORE
The Irishman
Marriage Story
1917
Little Women
Joker
Us

BEST SONG
Rocketman
Harriet
Wild Rose
Frozen II
The Lion King
Aladdin
Breakthrough

BEST ACTION MOVIE (Non-Oscar category)
1917
Ford V Ferrari
Avengers: Endgame
Spider-Man: Far From Home
John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum

BEST COMEDY (Non-Oscar category)
Jojo Rabbit
The Farewell
Knives Out
Booksmart
Dolemite Is My Name

BEST SCI-FI OR HORROR MOVIE (Non-Oscar category)
Avengers: Endgame
Ad Astra
Us
Midsommar


My thoughts in the top 13 contenders...

- The Irishman did great
- Marriage Story doing good but no Editing no Cinematography
- Parasite doing well but no Cimematography and only Ensemble for acting
- 1917 doing as expected
- Little Women doing as expected
- Once Upon A Time In Hollywood doing good, no snubs
- Jojo Rabbit did poorly here, at least it got Screenplay and Supporting Actress
- Ford V Ferrari only gets Picture and technical stuff, no Actor
- Joker no Director no cimematography but overall did okay
- Bombshell doing bad, only acting and hair makeup
- The Two Popes did poorly, only Screenplay and Supporting Actor
- The Farewell doing as expected
- A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood did poorly, only Screenplay and Supporting Actor

- Uncut Gems did VERY well, has some shot at a Best Picture Oscar nomination now


If this ends up having some bearing on the final Oscars results, the Best Picture race would now look like this:

FRONT-RUNNERS
The Irishman, Marriage Story, Parasite

COULD WIN BEST PICTURE
1917, Little Women, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

WILL BE NOMINATED
Jojo Rabbit

JUST GET IN OR JUST MISS
Ford V Ferrari, Joker, The Farewell, Uncut Gems

WILDCARD TO GET IN
Bombshell, The Two Popes, A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood

Gotta disagree, this group was never going to be among Jojo Rabbit’s strongest supporters whereas Parasite needs to absolute clean up with critics groups to have any shot at winning Best Picture.  At this point the contenders for a BP win are (in order)

Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (Hollywood loves seeing itself romanticized)
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit (this is definitely the “everyone at the Thanksgiving table will like it even if only some of people love it” contender)
Marriage Story (if it gets best director and best editing nods...watch out)

Parasite will definitely be nominated, but right now I doubt it has more than an outside shot although a Best Director win is still possible.  Any acting nominations seem extremely unlikely though tbh.

Also not to nitpick, but Jojo Rabbit did get nominated for Best Picture

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Always happy to see Roman Griffin Davis getting some unexpected, but very well-deserved recognition

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD NOMINATIONS.

Akwafina got snubbed for Nyongo and Zhao Shuzhen (as well as Annette Bening and Cathy Bates) didn't get in over Scarlet Johansson and Nicole Kidman. This doesn't help The Farewell. At least it did okay at the Golden Globes.

The Irishman, Parasite and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood got an Ensemble Cast nominations while Marriage Story did not, despite Driver Johansson Dern all being major acting contenders. I'd say this hurts Marriage Story and helps Once Upon A Time In Hollywood in this four-way Best Picture race.

Bale and Edgerton nominated for Actor over Banderas and Pryce. Pugh passed over again for Actress. Foxx over Hopkins for Supporting Actor.

- Banderas was never going to get nominated here. 

- Bale's nomination is a nice surprise.  IDK if it was deserved or not, but either way, he was great in Ford v Ferrari, so I won't complain about him getting some attention. 

- I haven't seen Rocketman, but folks keep recommending it and while I still worry about it being another Bohemian Rhapsody, I may well end up checking it out. 

- The Two Popes missing out completely, however, is a very bad sign for that film's Oscar prospects although it could still score a Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, or Best Adapted Screenplay nomination (although even the former is looking more and more like a heavy lift).  It may well have to content itself with a lone Best Adapted Screenplay nomination (which will likely end up annoying me to no end if the movie turns out to be even half as good as it looks)

- Adam Sandler missing out on SAG and especially Globes nominations is not a good sign for his Best Actor prospects.  What may save him, however, is that folks who love Uncut Gems seem to really love it.  As in "it might get enough 1st choice votes to eeek out a surprise BP nomination" love it.  Then again, critics don't vote for Oscars.  And Adam Sandler has [somehow] made a lot of money for a lot of people over the years.  We'll see what happens.  I suspect he would've gotten nominated were there six SAG slots. 

- Finally, we reach a group where Jojo Rabbit will likely do quite well: the Guilds.  From what I've read, industry types seems to love Jojo Rabbit.  Film critics, not so much   I still think Jojo Rabbit is very much in the thick of the BP contest, although obviously not the frontrunner, but we'll know more with this film once the Oscar nominations are announced. 

- I gotta say, I'm kinda sad that Ray Liotta (Marriage Story) and Shia LaBouf (Honey Boy) aren't getting much recognition for their respective Oscar-caliber performances this year. 

- Parasite [somehow] getting a Best Ensemble nomination means that T'Chenka was probably right.  Parasite may be a strong contender for a BP win after all.  If Bong Joon-Ho starts consistently winning Best Director from non-critics awards groups, watch out!

- Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood did exactly what it needed to here and was pretty clearly the HFPA (Golden Globes) favorite film.  But then, Globes voters don't vote for Oscars. 

- Jojo Rabbit and Parasite did really well here.  We're probably looking at a tossup between Jojo Rabbit, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood, Parasite, and The Irishman.  I absolutely loved Marriage Story (honestly, it's a perfect movie; I don't even know what nitpick I could make much less actual substantive criticism) and expect it to both win some major awards and get tons of nominations, but for some reason I can't shake the feeling that it's a bit of a longshot to take home the big prize.  We'll see what happens on nomination day.  A best director nomination for Noah Baumbach would be a really good sign for its chances.

- Clearly, the industry is not responding to Little Women at all though.  The Globes were one thing, but that SAG shutout...yikes.  I'm not exactly complaining, mind you, but still...you'd think actors would be this film's base.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

As far as Best Picture goes, the movies that can actually win the award at this point are The Irishman, Parasite, Marriage Story and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, with 1917 being an underdog 5th option and Jojo Rabbit being a long-shot highly unlikely 6th option. There is theoretically a chance for a few movies to go from a 0% chance of winning up to a 5% long-shot chance between now and the Oscars, those movies being Little Women, Joker and The Two Popes. So there are 4 or 5 real contenders and 9 total contenders at this point.

The other movies people mention in regards to Best Picture can only hope for a nomination at best, which is still a big deal in itself. Those movies are Ford V Ferrari, Bombshell, The Farewell, Knives Out, Uncut Gems, A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood, and then again for this category there are 5 or 10 highly unlikely other movies with a 10% chance or less of sneaking in as a suprise nomination.

Out of the 9 actual contenders, I've seen 6, and the one I would recommend most to anybody is Parasite. Totally worth a watch if you get the chance to see it.

I haven't followed Best Picture closely yet, but based on my understanding from previous years I think that you're probably right in saying that there are 5 movies with an actual chance. I would be really surprised, though, if Parasite or 1917 won based on the fact that foreign language films and war movies (respectively) don't seem to win very often. My guess is that it will come down to the Irishman (peak Scorsese is always a contender), Marriage Story (the kind of film that often wins Oscars), and Once Upon a Time (subject matter + Tarantino being due for a win).

This is probably my bias, but I think Parasite might win. Roma almost won last year, which was foreign and Netflix and slow and artsy, four potential downfalls. Parasite is foreign, but not only is it NOT Netflix, but it's actually competing against Netflix. It's also not slow and not "artsy" in the way that might turn some people off, even though it's extremely well made. People who want to see justice for Roma, people that don't respect Netflix and people who dislike slow artsy stuff might all come out this year for Parasite.

Also keep in mind that The Irishman Once Upon A Time In Hollywood are long films that some might feel are slow, and Marriage Story is a mildly artsy drama. If you can get past the foreign language aspect, Parasite is arguably the most accessible (mainstream friendly) film, the fastest-paced and best film overall out of the top 4 of Irishman, Marriage Story, Hollywood, Parasite. I think it's also (slightly) better than Roma or ay least equal, and much more accessible.

Hollywood is full of liberals trying to be progressive and inclusive, as we all know. What better time to show it than to choose an Asian culture film? I just this second realizef how incredibly white Irishman, Marriage Story and Hollywood are. Don't Hollywood libs like to pat themselves on the back for supporting minorities? Here's their chance.

The thing with Roma that I think hurt it more than anything tbh is that it (at least imo) does not play well on the TV.  Like, it's a slow film and I come at it as someone who didn't see what all the hubbub was about (aside from the Cinematography which totally deserved an Oscar), but I feel like the issues I had with the film were almost all far more pronounced b/c I saw it on TV rather than in a theater.  OTOH, like Green Book last year, all five of this year's frontrunners will play very well on screener (especially The Irishman since you can take breaks which is probably the best way to watch it). 

To your point in the last paragraph, I mean, they do like to pat themselves on the back for supporting minorities in superficial ways.  I'm sure the industry's immediate narrative if Parasite would be some cringey-as-hell version of "We did it!  We just struck a huge blow against Trump's xenophobic policies by giving an award to an Asian people movie; no need for applause, this sort of enlightenment just comes naturally."

At the same time, though, they also really like movies about Hollywood and they really like movies set during WWII.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I just saw a few movies:

1) Her Smell - Great, vanity-free, Oscar-worthy lead performance by a manic Elisabeth Moss as an incredibly unlikable punk rock singer...but in a very meh movie.  I give it a C.
______________________

2) Bombshell - Man, what an awful movie.  And they made up false instances of sexual harassment and sexual assault by Ailes.  Like, why do that?  Even if you were dead set on having Margot Robbie in the movie for some reason, you could’ve at least began the film with a disclaimer saying “some of this is true.”  Or have her play one of the less well-known victims of Ailes in a flashback, Idk.  Ideally, her whole character could’ve been cut from the movie.  

I usually give movies a lot of leeway about fictionalizing certain (or even most) elements of true stories as long as they capture the spirit of the truth, but there are some things where you can’t just make stuff up even if you capture the spirit of the truth (which tbf Robbie’s character’s storyline did) and depicting someone committing sex crimes is one of them...even if said person really was a sex predator.  

The Loudest Voice may’ve been - aside from Russell Crowe’s suburb performance as Ailes - a dull, poorly-written, superficial miniseries, but at least it tried to stick to the facts.  Bombshell didn’t even try and it was still a boring, poorly written film with no interest in going beyond the most superficial surface level.  In any case, Robbie’s character didn’t even exist, much less get sexually assaulted or harassed by Ailes.  I know Ailes did the things he does to her character to a number of women, but making up a character who really just exists to be a naive idealist who becomes a victim...it really bothered me.  Maybe I’m getting too hung up on this and it doesn’t matter b/c Ailes did do this stuff to other people, idk.  Either way, it was still a boring and very by-the-numbers movie.

Tbh, Bombshell really should’ve focused on Gretchen Carlson who was actually...you know...sexually harassed by Ailes and was certainly the real hero of this scandal.  Margot Robbie’s character and Kate McKinnon’s secretly Hillary supporting lesbian [see, audience, even Fox employees are really liberals deep down ) didn’t exist irl.  

For that matter - unlike Carlson - Megyn Kelly didn’t come forward until it was clear that Ailes was going down no matter what and she was a pretty horrible person even compared to Carlson.  I’m not sure why they tried to shoehorn her into this as some sort of hero nor did I think Theron even gave that good a performance, but whatever.

I mean, this movie was just plain dull.  The only good things were Nicole Kidman and John Lithgow’s (stealing every scene he was in as Ailes) excellent performances, the makeup (good prosthetics on Lithgow and Theron looked just like Kelly), the bit about Hannity and O’Reilly’s rivalry, some genuinely funny lines mocking O’Reilly’s use of a vibrator (yes, that actually happened and raises so many questions), and the bit of the film’s score used for the brief elevator scene which inexplicably constituted the film’s entire theatrical trailer.  

Anyway, Bombshell barely gets a C- b/c of Lithgow and Kidman’s performances, otherwise I’d have given it a D.  It’s just a boring, generic, dull movie.
____________________________
3) Uncut Gems - This film was amazing.  Loved every minute of it!  The film has this chaotic, propulsive, violent, hyper-active energy that grabs you and then never lets go.  It’s probably the most immersive film I’ve seen since Hereditary.  Uncut Gems also excels as both a crime film and a character study of a degenerate, deeply unsympathetic gambling addict.  

It is superbly edited and directed, but the real MVP is Adam Sandler.  He just completely disappears into the character and delivers such a raw, powerful, nuanced, vanity-free performance that you never for a second remember you’re watching Adam Sandler.  For the duration of the movie, there is no Adam Sandler, only Howard Rattner.  I always thought Sandler could give a solid dramatic performance in a supporting part as hammy [inks]hole villain if he were so inclined (something like a white version of Tuco Salamanca’s character from Breaking Bad), but this...wow.  I mean, I just didn’t think Sandler had it in him.  Uncut Gems also features good supporting performances by Julie Fox (Howard Ratner’s girlfriend), Eric Bogosian (a loanshark), and Kevin Garnett (as himself in a non-cameo role...apparently the dude can act)

The script is excellent and contains tons of great twists (you’ll want to go into this one as close to blind as possible).  It always keeps you on the edge of your seat and everything just feels so realistic.  You can well that a lot of careful research went into every aspect of this movie.

I suspect that Uncut Gems will do well (relatively speaking) with nominations b/c while it’s very much not an academy movie, those who like it will absolutely love it.  BP and Best Director are probably not in the cards, but I think it has a solid shot at nominations for editing, Best Actor, and quite possibly original screenplay and maybe even cinematography.  I suppose an upset BP nom is possible, but I doubt it.  A Best Director nomination is too heavy a lift imo (that’ll be Scorsese, Tarantino, Bong Joon-Ho, Mendes, and one of Waititi, Baumbach, or *maybe* Phillips).  

Not gonna lie, if he gets nominated then Sandler has a real shot at winning Best Actor imo.  The only danger sign is that he got snubbed by the SAG since they use the same preferential voting system as the OSCARs.  I think Bale edging Sandler out was a fluke, but we’ll see.   

I give it an A+ and highly recommend seeing it, ideally in theaters since watching this one really is an experience that will be amplified by seeing it that way.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

THE TWO POPES (no spoilers)

This was a nice film, well made and intimate, about two polar opposites in the Vatican spending time together. You learn a lot about Pope Francis, and you get to know how Pope Benefict was in his 80s. The cinematograghy is excellent and the acting is pretty good. I loved all the politics: Benedict thinks the church needs to stay conservative and Francis believes in a liberal church. This is definitely a "slow character drama", which will completely tirn some people off, but it's good.

WEAK POINTS
- "Excitement level", feeling the plot progress

DESERVES A LOT OF PRAISE
- Cinematograohy was delicious
- Pryce and Hopkins both act very well in this
- Church political discussion was great

FINAL SCORE
B plus

OSCAR TALK
This may sneak into Best Picture and/or Best Original Screenplay. Pryce (Actor) and Hopkins (Supporting Actor) are going to either just sneak into nominations or just miss out. There isn't much talk about Best Cinematography, but there should be IMO.





RICHARD JEWELL (no spoilers)

This was a good drama. There isn't much to praise but there isn't much to criticize. Hauser, Rockwell and especially Kathy Bates were pretty good in this. Hamm and Wilde were forgettable.

OKAY BUT ONLY OKAY
- Side characters (script, acting)

DESERVE PRAISE
- Kathy Bates, Sam Rockwell, Paul Walter Hauser

FINAL SCORE
B

OSCAR TALK
Not much. Kathy Bates has some chance to get a Best Supporting Actress nomination. Rockwell could on a longshot get into Best Supporting Actor because the Academy loves him (see: Vice Rockwell nomination last year over over Beautiful Boy Chalamet).

Small nitpick: The Two Popes is adapted from a play, it’s not an original screenplay.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I saw The Two Popes and I really liked it, but I agree with T’Chenka’s observations about why it won’t be for everyone.  Great acting, excellent screenplay (despite being kinda slow at times, I was never the least bit bored), and just a really thoughtful, well-made film.  A religious film in the best sense and a very insightful one at that.  It’s also a beautiful film to watch even if the cinematography sometimes left a bit to be desired.  I’d give it an A-  Watch the trailer first though.  If you see it and think you’d like a deep, dialogue-heavy film along those lines then I highly recommend it.  Otherwise, you might wanna sit this one out.  Then again, it’s on Netflix so you can always shut it off if you don’t like it.

Oscar talk:

This has a shot at getting either the fourth or fifth adapted screenplay slot although it’s not a lock.  Jonathan Pryce and especially Anthony Hopkins do have a real - albeit less than 50% - chance of sneaking in for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor nominations respectively (even though they’re really both leads and the real supporting performance is the guy who played a younger Pope Francis in the flashbacks).  B/c of the Academy’s preferential voting system, I’d be shocked if this film got a BP nomination...not b/c it is undeserving, but b/c nominees in all categories are determined by the films with the most first place votes from that branch of the academy.*  Only the Oscars and the guilds do it that way.
————————
Warning: Incoming Inside Baseball (just skip ahead if not interested)

What this means is for, say, BP, you don’t vote for your top ten (otherwise a BP nod, Adapted Screenplay nod, and probably a nomination for Hopkins would be locks and Pryce would have a good shot at a nomination).  The Producer’s Branch members each vote for just one film and then once you have the nominees, the whole academy votes in every category.  This is an under-appreciated factor in who gets nominated (ex: Captain Philips would’ve been a lock for Best Director and Best Actor nods under a normal voting system, but was the sort of film likely to get a lot of 3-5th place votes, so it missed out in both categories). 

They briefly BP an exception to this rule and allow the producers branch to have ten votes (top ten films) for the 2010 Oscars, but a few films got nominated that the academy felt were from “low art genres” like The Blind Side (mainstream crowd pleaser/sports film), District 9 (Sci-Fi), A Serious Man (comedy), and Up (animated film).  Up and District 9’s BP nods in particular pissed off a lot of folks in the academy.  The academy promptly opted to return to the “pick one film” rule as a sort of genre gerrymandering of BP nominations. 
______________________
Inside baseball over.

Ultimately, preferential favors two types of films in the nominations voting: 1) Obvious Oscar bait frontrunners like The King’s Speech, Spotlight, La La Land [or really anything about Hollywood that depicts it as a magical place], Green Book, etc and 2) Films like Jojo Rabbit, Joker, The Wolf of Wall Street, Tarantino films, etc which are very much not for everyone, but that are absolutely beloved rather than just liked/respected by those who enjoyed them.  All of which is to say that I doubt anyone considers The Two Popes the best film of the year even if many academy members will consider it a top ten film. 

Similarly, Jonathan Pryce is so beloved in the film industry that many want him to get “his” Oscar nomination at some point (and you better believe the academy is that superficial about this stuff; “s/he’s overdue” is probably the single best narrative someone seeking an acting nomination could hope for), but is it enough to get Pryce the fifth most first place votes?  Hopkins gives his best performance in over twenty years, but is it good enough to crack the Best Supporting Actor field as an actor who has already won an Oscar and has periodically annoyed the academy by publicly expressing his contempt for the idea of actors campaigning for Oscar nominations (lest we forget many Academy members publicly called for Mo’nique not to be nominated for Precious [she ultimately won] b/c she “isn’t showing us the respect we deserve [by campaigning for an Oscar],” these are some petty folks). 

Anyway, we’ll see what happens, but I doubt it gets more than a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination.  Tbh, Pryce not getting a Best Actor nomination from the SAG might be a death blow to his chances since they use preferential voting and are the industry group most likely to be inclined to nominate a beloved, widely respected actor like Pryce.  The Globes are a bit weird [they’re less useful for predicting nominations since they’re mainly used as A) FYC to Academy members with a mountain of screeners to get through and B) a way for Globes winners to give a good speech to show the Academy members “hey, you’ll feel good about me being on the stage if I win”] and DiCaprio is a lock for a Best Actor nomination, but was nominated in the musical or comedy category at the Globes.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Similarly, Jonathan Pryce is so beloved in the film industry that many want him to get “his” Oscar nomination at some point (and you better believe the academy is that superficial about this stuff; “s/he’s overdue” is probably the single best narrative someone seeking an acting nomination could hope for), but is it enough to get Pryce the fifth most first place votes?  Hopkins gives his best performance in over twenty years, but is it good enough to crack the Best Supporting Actor field as an actor who has already won an Oscar and has periodically annoyed the academy by publicly expressing his contempt for the idea of actors campaigning for Oscar nominations (lest we forget many Academy members publicly called for Mo’nique not to be nominated for Precious [she ultimately won] b/c she “isn’t showing us the respect we deserve [by campaigning for an Oscar],” these are some petty folks). 

Anyway, we’ll see what happens, but I doubt it gets more than a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination.  Tbh, Pryce not getting a Best Actor nomination from the SAG might be a death blow to his chances since they use preferential voting and are the industry group most likely to be inclined to nominate a beloved, widely respected actor like Pryce.  The Globes are a bit weird [they’re less useful for predicting nominations since they’re mainly used as A) FYC to Academy members with a mountain of screeners to get through and B) a way for Globes winners to give a good speech to show the Academy members “hey, you’ll feel good about me being on the stage if I win”] and DiCaprio is a lock for a Best Actor nomination, but was nominated in the musical or comedy category at the Globes.

You're not wrong, but the Oscars aren't 100% predictable, despite definitely being 95% predictable. Almost nobody but Roma stans were predicting Marina De Tavira to get a Best Supporting Actress nomination. It came way out of left field. After the Golden Globes, I'm simply not willing to write this film or these actors off just yet.

Pryce and Hopkins could still sneak in, a BP nod would shock me though.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

They briefly BP an exception to this rule and allow the producers branch to have ten votes (top ten films) for the 2010 Oscars, but a few films got nominated that the academy felt were from “low art genres” like The Blind Side (mainstream crowd pleaser/sports film), District 9 (Sci-Fi), A Serious Man (comedy), and Up (animated film).  Up and District 9’s BP nods in particular pissed off a lot of folks in the academy.  The academy promptly opted to return to the “pick one film” rule as a sort of genre gerrymandering of BP nominations. 

That's a shame, Up and District 9 were both very good films, and there's nothing wrong with the Academy giving BP noms to particularly good animated/genre films. I'd easily take both of those films over e.g. War Horse and Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close.

Agreed

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The biggest problem is the movie’s length.  3 and a half hours is a long time and you feel it.  The movie is okay quality-wise, but once you get to hours and realize you’ve got another hour and a half of meh, it feels more and more like a chore.  It’s also a pretty slow movie.  Plus De Niro still moves like an old person, so that was really distracting.

Couldn't agree more

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Golden Globes Predictions:

Note: I have not seen 1917, Harriet, or Rocketman

BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)


Will Win: Marriage Story
Could Win: Joker
Should Win: Marriage Story

BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)


Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
Could Win: Adam Driver - Marriage Story
Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix - Joker

BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)


Will Win: Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
Could Win: Saoirse Ronan - Little Women
Should Win: Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story

BEST PICTURE (COMEDY/MUSICAL)

Will Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Could Win: Jojo Rabbit
Should Win: Jojo Rabbit

BEST ACTOR (COMEDY/MUSICAL)

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Could Win: Eddie Murphy - Dolemite is My Name
Should Win: Roman Griffin Davis - Jojo Rabbit


BEST ACTRESS (COMEDY/MUSICAL)


Will Win: Awkwafina - The Farewell
Could Win: Beanie Feldstein - Booksmart
Should Win: Ana De Armas - Knives Out

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR


Will Win: Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Could Win: Joe Pesci - The Irishman
Should Win: Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS


Will Win: Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers
Could Win: Laura Dern - Marriage Story
Should Win: Laura Dern - Marriage Story

BEST DIRECTOR

Will Win: Bong Joon-Ho - Parasite
Could Win: Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should Win: Todd Phillips - Joker

BEST SCREENPLAY


Will Win: Marriage Story
Could Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should Win: Marriage Story

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM


Will Win: Parasite
Could Win: The Farewell
Should Win: Parasite

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM


Will Win: Toy Story 4
Could Win: Frozen 2
Should Win: Toy Story 4

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE


Will Win: Joker
Could Win: Marriage Story
Should Win: Marriage Story

BEST ORIGINAL SONG


Will Win: (I'm Gonna) Love Me Again
Could Win: Into the Unknown - Frozen II
Should Win: I honestly don't care about any of these nominees

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

And that may well be the ballgame for Marriage Story...

Edit: So...how about 1917?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Movies that are basically done now (IMO), that will be nominated for Oscars but won't win:

- Jojo Rabbit
- Little Women (still tiny chance for Score, Supporting Actress)
- Ford V Ferrari (can still win technical stuff, no acting directing screenplay)
- The Two Popes
- The Farewell (Awkwafina won but Drama actresses are all "better")
- Knives Out

Definitely disagree on Jojo Rabbit, that one is gonna play far better with the guilds and Oscars than anyone else.  If Taika Watiti gets a Best Director nomination tomorrow (sadly, I don’t think he will) and Johansson also gets a supporting actress nomination (I do think this will happen) then Jojo Rabbit is one of the frontrunners for BP.  Otherwise, it’ll have to make due with having like a 40% chance of winning Best Adapted Screenplay and various nominations.  In other words, the jury is still out on that one.

Did anybody else like Ricky Gervais ripping into Hollywood and all the actors/actresses? I was amazed with how hard he went after everybody. Good for you Ricky.

Full opening monologue, audio only
(NOT SAFE FOR WORK LANGUAGE)
https://youtu.be/o2y99o99GTg

He’s always been one of the few good awards show hosts for this reason.  The Globes let him do his thing.  If you have Chris Rock, you gotta let him do race jokes.  If you have Jon Stewart, you gotta let him do political jokes.  If you have some random old person or two random actors, you’re doing it wrong and would be better off with no host.