Oppenheimer wins 7 Oscars (Best Picture) (film & awards)

[kyc0705]

My post-Globes takeaways, with the usual caveat that it's just the Golden Globes:

Dern and Pitt seem like done deals now. I think the Supporting categories are basically wrapped.

Zellweger still seems a little vulnerable to win Best Actress, but unlike last year with Colman upsetting in the end, there's no other contender that singularly commands a strong base of support.

In Best Actor, I don't know who wins, but Phoenix absolutely could, though I wouldn't rule out Driver or possibly even DiCaprio, depending on how SAG goes. (And also in Best Actor, I could definitely see a scenario where Egerton gets nominated.)

As for Best Picture, is it between Parasite, The Irishman, OUATIH, and... 1917 now? Seemed like there was a lot of hype after it first started screening, then it died down, but I could definitely see it coming back.

[kyc0705]

I'm fairly confident in Driver/Phoenix winning Best Actor, and Scarlett Johansson has a clear leg up on Theron and Ronan in my eyes.

I agree that if Zellweger does end up losing Actress, she'll lose to Johansson. As for Actor, it's almost certainly Phoenix or Driver (I did hear a wild theory of the case for DiCaprio to sneak through the precursors at the last minute, but that doesn't seem like it's happening). In any case, SAG is the decider: if Phoenix loses, the Oscar is a photo finish. But if he wins, it's a lock.

[kyc0705]

I have so many gripes with these nominations that I genuinely wouldn't even know where to start (though I did worry that Parasite would underperform, so it even doing on the level with what we expected is actually deeply relieving), so... let's just cut right to early predictions:

- Acting categories are 1000% locked at this point.
- Director might come down to between Bong and Mendes
- Picture is a virtual toss-up, with OUATIH, Parasite, 1917, and Jojo Rabbit all with a chance (but I think in that order if I had to guess). No clue on where this goes until the rest of the precursors.
- Screenplay winners are probably OUATIH and Irishman.

[kyc0705]

Nah, it'll probably be Phoenix, Zellweger, Pitt, and Dern.  Johansson and Pesci could theoretically pull off an upset in Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor, but I doubt it (especially in Pesci's case).

My reading of this is that they're basically all heavy favorites to different degrees: Zellweger and Phoenix win because nobody else can pose a serious enough challenge to rally enough votes—in other words, there's a chance they could lose but it's not clear exactly what that scenario looks like. Pitt even moreso. And in Supporting Actress I can't even imagine how Dern loses, much less who she would lose to. That category is a lock beyond locks.

[kyc0705]

My ranking of this year's Best Picture nominees:

A:
Drive My Car
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

B:
Nightmare Alley
Dune
Licorice Pizza

B-/C+:
CODA
King Richard
Belfast

D:
Don't Look Up

[kyc0705]

Just about everything else still feels like it's in flux, but it's looking like Supporting Actor is already wrapped and Supporting Actress is getting there quickly.

[kyc0705]

Oppenheimer will be the first blockbuster to win since Return of the King, 20 years ago.
Two years ago CODA became the lowest grossing Oscar winner ever with just 1 million.

To be fair, CODA was a streaming exclusive.

On the other hand, we know what becomes (or more correctly, doesn't become) of most streaming exclusives in terms of people discussing them or even seeing them to begin with.