Oppenheimer wins 7 Oscars (Best Picture) (film & awards)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I just saw a few movies:

1) Her Smell - Great, vanity-free, Oscar-worthy lead performance by a manic Elisabeth Moss as an incredibly unlikable punk rock singer...but in a very meh movie.  I give it a C.
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2) Bombshell - Man, what an awful movie.  And they made up false instances of sexual harassment and sexual assault by Ailes.  Like, why do that?  Even if you were dead set on having Margot Robbie in the movie for some reason, you could’ve at least began the film with a disclaimer saying “some of this is true.”  Or have her play one of the less well-known victims of Ailes in a flashback, Idk.  Ideally, her whole character could’ve been cut from the movie.  

I usually give movies a lot of leeway about fictionalizing certain (or even most) elements of true stories as long as they capture the spirit of the truth, but there are some things where you can’t just make stuff up even if you capture the spirit of the truth (which tbf Robbie’s character’s storyline did) and depicting someone committing sex crimes is one of them...even if said person really was a sex predator.  

The Loudest Voice may’ve been - aside from Russell Crowe’s suburb performance as Ailes - a dull, poorly-written, superficial miniseries, but at least it tried to stick to the facts.  Bombshell didn’t even try and it was still a boring, poorly written film with no interest in going beyond the most superficial surface level.  In any case, Robbie’s character didn’t even exist, much less get sexually assaulted or harassed by Ailes.  I know Ailes did the things he does to her character to a number of women, but making up a character who really just exists to be a naive idealist who becomes a victim...it really bothered me.  Maybe I’m getting too hung up on this and it doesn’t matter b/c Ailes did do this stuff to other people, idk.  Either way, it was still a boring and very by-the-numbers movie.

Tbh, Bombshell really should’ve focused on Gretchen Carlson who was actually...you know...sexually harassed by Ailes and was certainly the real hero of this scandal.  Margot Robbie’s character and Kate McKinnon’s secretly Hillary supporting lesbian [see, audience, even Fox employees are really liberals deep down ) didn’t exist irl.  

For that matter - unlike Carlson - Megyn Kelly didn’t come forward until it was clear that Ailes was going down no matter what and she was a pretty horrible person even compared to Carlson.  I’m not sure why they tried to shoehorn her into this as some sort of hero nor did I think Theron even gave that good a performance, but whatever.

I mean, this movie was just plain dull.  The only good things were Nicole Kidman and John Lithgow’s (stealing every scene he was in as Ailes) excellent performances, the makeup (good prosthetics on Lithgow and Theron looked just like Kelly), the bit about Hannity and O’Reilly’s rivalry, some genuinely funny lines mocking O’Reilly’s use of a vibrator (yes, that actually happened and raises so many questions), and the bit of the film’s score used for the brief elevator scene which inexplicably constituted the film’s entire theatrical trailer.  

Anyway, Bombshell barely gets a C- b/c of Lithgow and Kidman’s performances, otherwise I’d have given it a D.  It’s just a boring, generic, dull movie.
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3) Uncut Gems - This film was amazing.  Loved every minute of it!  The film has this chaotic, propulsive, violent, hyper-active energy that grabs you and then never lets go.  It’s probably the most immersive film I’ve seen since Hereditary.  Uncut Gems also excels as both a crime film and a character study of a degenerate, deeply unsympathetic gambling addict.  

It is superbly edited and directed, but the real MVP is Adam Sandler.  He just completely disappears into the character and delivers such a raw, powerful, nuanced, vanity-free performance that you never for a second remember you’re watching Adam Sandler.  For the duration of the movie, there is no Adam Sandler, only Howard Rattner.  I always thought Sandler could give a solid dramatic performance in a supporting part as hammy [inks]hole villain if he were so inclined (something like a white version of Tuco Salamanca’s character from Breaking Bad), but this...wow.  I mean, I just didn’t think Sandler had it in him.  Uncut Gems also features good supporting performances by Julie Fox (Howard Ratner’s girlfriend), Eric Bogosian (a loanshark), and Kevin Garnett (as himself in a non-cameo role...apparently the dude can act)

The script is excellent and contains tons of great twists (you’ll want to go into this one as close to blind as possible).  It always keeps you on the edge of your seat and everything just feels so realistic.  You can well that a lot of careful research went into every aspect of this movie.

I suspect that Uncut Gems will do well (relatively speaking) with nominations b/c while it’s very much not an academy movie, those who like it will absolutely love it.  BP and Best Director are probably not in the cards, but I think it has a solid shot at nominations for editing, Best Actor, and quite possibly original screenplay and maybe even cinematography.  I suppose an upset BP nom is possible, but I doubt it.  A Best Director nomination is too heavy a lift imo (that’ll be Scorsese, Tarantino, Bong Joon-Ho, Mendes, and one of Waititi, Baumbach, or *maybe* Phillips).  

Not gonna lie, if he gets nominated then Sandler has a real shot at winning Best Actor imo.  The only danger sign is that he got snubbed by the SAG since they use the same preferential voting system as the OSCARs.  I think Bale edging Sandler out was a fluke, but we’ll see.   

I give it an A+ and highly recommend seeing it, ideally in theaters since watching this one really is an experience that will be amplified by seeing it that way.

[SingingAnalyst]

Knives Out! was a great movie. Mysteries are not all that common a genre, and this one was suberbly executed. I for one did not see the details coming.

[T'Chenka]

I just saw a few movies:

1) Her Smell - Great, vanity-free, Oscar-worthy lead performance by a manic Elisabeth Moss as an incredibly unlikable punk rock singer...but in a very meh movie.  I give it a C.
______________________

2) Bombshell - Man, what an awful movie.  And they made up false instances of sexual harassment and sexual assault by Ailes.  Like, why do that?  Even if you were dead set on having Margot Robbie in the movie for some reason, you could’ve at least began the film with a disclaimer saying “some of this is true.”  Or have her play one of the less well-known victims of Ailes in a flashback, Idk.  Ideally, her whole character could’ve been cut from the movie.  

I usually give movies a lot of leeway about fictionalizing certain (or even most) elements of true stories as long as they capture the spirit of the truth, but there are some things where you can’t just make stuff up even if you capture the spirit of the truth (which tbf Robbie’s character’s storyline did) and depicting someone committing sex crimes is one of them...even if said person really was a sex predator.  

The Loudest Voice may’ve been - aside from Russell Crowe’s suburb performance as Ailes - a dull, poorly-written, superficial miniseries, but at least it tried to stick to the facts.  Bombshell didn’t even try and it was still a boring, poorly written film with no interest in going beyond the most superficial surface level.  In any case, Robbie’s character didn’t even exist, much less get sexually assaulted or harassed by Ailes.  I know Ailes did the things he does to her character to a number of women, but making up a character who really just exists to be a naive idealist who becomes a victim...it really bothered me.  Maybe I’m getting too hung up on this and it doesn’t matter b/c Ailes did do this stuff to other people, idk.  Either way, it was still a boring and very by-the-numbers movie.

Tbh, Bombshell really should’ve focused on Gretchen Carlson who was actually...you know...sexually harassed by Ailes and was certainly the real hero of this scandal.  Margot Robbie’s character and Kate McKinnon’s secretly Hillary supporting lesbian [see, audience, even Fox employees are really liberals deep down ) didn’t exist irl.  

For that matter - unlike Carlson - Megyn Kelly didn’t come forward until it was clear that Ailes was going down no matter what and she was a pretty horrible person even compared to Carlson.  I’m not sure why they tried to shoehorn her into this as some sort of hero nor did I think Theron even gave that good a performance, but whatever.

I mean, this movie was just plain dull.  The only good things were Nicole Kidman and John Lithgow’s (stealing every scene he was in as Ailes) excellent performances, the makeup (good prosthetics on Lithgow and Theron looked just like Kelly), the bit about Hannity and O’Reilly’s rivalry, some genuinely funny lines mocking O’Reilly’s use of a vibrator (yes, that actually happened and raises so many questions), and the bit of the film’s score used for the brief elevator scene which inexplicably constituted the film’s entire theatrical trailer.  

Anyway, Bombshell barely gets a C- b/c of Lithgow and Kidman’s performances, otherwise I’d have given it a D.  It’s just a boring, generic, dull movie.
____________________________
3) Uncut Gems - This film was amazing.  Loved every minute of it!  The film has this chaotic, propulsive, violent, hyper-active energy that grabs you and then never lets go.  It’s probably the most immersive film I’ve seen since Hereditary.  Uncut Gems also excels as both a crime film and a character study of a degenerate, deeply unsympathetic gambling addict.  

It is superbly edited and directed, but the real MVP is Adam Sandler.  He just completely disappears into the character and delivers such a raw, powerful, nuanced, vanity-free performance that you never for a second remember you’re watching Adam Sandler.  For the duration of the movie, there is no Adam Sandler, only Howard Rattner.  I always thought Sandler could give a solid dramatic performance in a supporting part as hammy [inks]hole villain if he were so inclined (something like a white version of Tuco Salamanca’s character from Breaking Bad), but this...wow.  I mean, I just didn’t think Sandler had it in him.  Uncut Gems also features good supporting performances by Julie Fox (Howard Ratner’s girlfriend), Eric Bogosian (a loanshark), and Kevin Garnett (as himself in a non-cameo role...apparently the dude can act)

The script is excellent and contains tons of great twists (you’ll want to go into this one as close to blind as possible).  It always keeps you on the edge of your seat and everything just feels so realistic.  You can well that a lot of careful research went into every aspect of this movie.

I suspect that Uncut Gems will do well (relatively speaking) with nominations b/c while it’s very much not an academy movie, those who like it will absolutely love it.  BP and Best Director are probably not in the cards, but I think it has a solid shot at nominations for editing, Best Actor, and quite possibly original screenplay and maybe even cinematography.  I suppose an upset BP nom is possible, but I doubt it.  A Best Director nomination is too heavy a lift imo (that’ll be Scorsese, Tarantino, Bong Joon-Ho, Mendes, and one of Waititi, Baumbach, or *maybe* Phillips).  

Not gonna lie, if he gets nominated then Sandler has a real shot at winning Best Actor imo.  The only danger sign is that he got snubbed by the SAG since they use the same preferential voting system as the OSCARs.  I think Bale edging Sandler out was a fluke, but we’ll see.  

I give it an A+ and highly recommend seeing it, ideally in theaters since watching this one really is an experience that will be amplified by seeing it that way.

From what I've read, every country outside of the USA is getting Uncut Gems on Netflix on January 31st. Can't wait. Going to see Bombshell tonight and trying to keep my expectations relatively low.

[T'Chenka]

THE TWO POPES (no spoilers)

This was a nice film, well made and intimate, about two polar opposites in the Vatican spending time together. You learn a lot about Pope Francis, and you get to know how Pope Benefict was in his 80s. The cinematograghy is excellent and the acting is pretty good. I loved all the politics: Benedict thinks the church needs to stay conservative and Francis believes in a liberal church. This is definitely a "slow character drama", which will completely tirn some people off, but it's good.

WEAK POINTS
- "Excitement level", feeling the plot progress

DESERVES A LOT OF PRAISE
- Cinematograohy was delicious
- Pryce and Hopkins both act very well in this
- Church political discussion was great

FINAL SCORE
B plus

OSCAR TALK
VERY good chance at Best Adapted Screenlay. This may sneak into Best Pictue.. Pryce (Actor) and Hopkins (Supporting Actor) are going to either just sneak into nominations or just miss out. There isn't much talk about Best Cinematography, but there should be IMO.





RICHARD JEWELL (no spoilers)

This was a good drama. There isn't much to praise but there isn't much to criticize. Hauser, Rockwell and especially Kathy Bates were pretty good in this. Hamm and Wilde were forgettable.

OKAY BUT ONLY OKAY
- Side characters (script, acting)

DESERVE PRAISE
- Kathy Bates, Sam Rockwell, Paul Walter Hauser

FINAL SCORE
B

OSCAR TALK
Not much. Kathy Bates has some chance to get a Best Supporting Actress nomination. Rockwell could on a longshot get into Best Supporting Actor because the Academy loves him (see: Vice Rockwell nomination last year over over Beautiful Boy Chalamet).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

THE TWO POPES (no spoilers)

This was a nice film, well made and intimate, about two polar opposites in the Vatican spending time together. You learn a lot about Pope Francis, and you get to know how Pope Benefict was in his 80s. The cinematograghy is excellent and the acting is pretty good. I loved all the politics: Benedict thinks the church needs to stay conservative and Francis believes in a liberal church. This is definitely a "slow character drama", which will completely tirn some people off, but it's good.

WEAK POINTS
- "Excitement level", feeling the plot progress

DESERVES A LOT OF PRAISE
- Cinematograohy was delicious
- Pryce and Hopkins both act very well in this
- Church political discussion was great

FINAL SCORE
B plus

OSCAR TALK
This may sneak into Best Picture and/or Best Original Screenplay. Pryce (Actor) and Hopkins (Supporting Actor) are going to either just sneak into nominations or just miss out. There isn't much talk about Best Cinematography, but there should be IMO.





RICHARD JEWELL (no spoilers)

This was a good drama. There isn't much to praise but there isn't much to criticize. Hauser, Rockwell and especially Kathy Bates were pretty good in this. Hamm and Wilde were forgettable.

OKAY BUT ONLY OKAY
- Side characters (script, acting)

DESERVE PRAISE
- Kathy Bates, Sam Rockwell, Paul Walter Hauser

FINAL SCORE
B

OSCAR TALK
Not much. Kathy Bates has some chance to get a Best Supporting Actress nomination. Rockwell could on a longshot get into Best Supporting Actor because the Academy loves him (see: Vice Rockwell nomination last year over over Beautiful Boy Chalamet).

Small nitpick: The Two Popes is adapted from a play, it’s not an original screenplay.

[T'Chenka]

THE TWO POPES (no spoilers)

This was a nice film, well made and intimate, about two polar opposites in the Vatican spending time together. You learn a lot about Pope Francis, and you get to know how Pope Benefict was in his 80s. The cinematograghy is excellent and the acting is pretty good. I loved all the politics: Benedict thinks the church needs to stay conservative and Francis believes in a liberal church. This is definitely a "slow character drama", which will completely tirn some people off, but it's good.

WEAK POINTS
- "Excitement level", feeling the plot progress

DESERVES A LOT OF PRAISE
- Cinematograohy was delicious
- Pryce and Hopkins both act very well in this
- Church political discussion was great

FINAL SCORE
B plus

OSCAR TALK
VERY good chance at Best Adapted Screenlay. This may sneak into Best Pictue.. Pryce (Actor) and Hopkins (Supporting Actor) are going to either just sneak into nominations or just miss out. There isn't much talk about Best Cinematography, but there should be IMO.





RICHARD JEWELL (no spoilers)

This was a good drama. There isn't much to praise but there isn't much to criticize. Hauser, Rockwell and especially Kathy Bates were pretty good in this. Hamm and Wilde were forgettable.

OKAY BUT ONLY OKAY
- Side characters (script, acting)

DESERVE PRAISE
- Kathy Bates, Sam Rockwell, Paul Walter Hauser

FINAL SCORE
B

OSCAR TALK
Not much. Kathy Bates has some chance to get a Best Supporting Actress nomination. Rockwell could on a longshot get into Best Supporting Actor because the Academy loves him (see: Vice Rockwell nomination last year over over Beautiful Boy Chalamet).

Small nitpick: The Two Popes is adapted from a play, it’s not an original screenplay.

Oops! Golden Globes messed my head up.

[T'Chenka]

BOMBSHELL (no spoilers)

This is more or less the Vice of 2019. True fact-based political drama with a great cast and great makeup that has great potential and doesn't quite live up to the hype due to the script. This movie was a real mixed bag, but it's absolutely worth a watch and I would recommend it if the concept / story / trailer have you interested.

CRITICISMS
- The script has issues. Some scenes and messages were home runs, some didn't work as well as they should have, and the third act didn't hold even close to the gravity that it should have
- The movie adressed a lot of issues very clearly, but didn't seem to have a clear message on about solving these problems noving forward. The film tried to criticize post-Ailes Fox as well, but didn't do a good enough clear enough job making it's case

DESERVES PRAISE
- The make-up was GREAT. There was one scene with Bill O'Reilly that looked off, and you only notice how they changed Kidman from certain angles in certain scenes. Theron and Lithgow were INCREDIBLE though.
- Charlize Theron gives a top 10 lead actress performance for 2019, maybe top 5.
- Margot Robbie was better than I expected. I always underrate her but she keeps proving me wrong.
- Lithgow and Kidman were good. Didn't blow me away but I have no criticisms.
- A few scenes and moments here and there were great, like scenes out of a Best Picture front-runner quality

FINAL SCORE
B plus (maybe just a B)

OSCAR TALK
This is the front-runner for Best Hairstyling And Makeup. Charlize Theron is a lock for a Best Actress nomination and an underdog to win. Robbie has a pretty good chance for a Best Supporting Actress nomination. Bombshell is in the top 11 or top 12 for Best Picture, but probably not one of the 8 or 9 (or 10) nominees. Lithgow is a longshot for Best Supporting Actor.

[Orser67]

I saw The Irishman last week. I thought it was a really good movie, and I really liked how Scorsese sort of counter-glamorized mob films (and went over some fairly accurate political history!) even while he made a classic Scorsese film.

But I would also say that it wasn't quite as good as Goodfellas, and it was obviously very, very long. Without the need to give Scorsese an Oscar (given his Best Picture and Best Director win for Departed) I'm skeptical that it will win BP (though it will almost certainly be nominated). In my intuition-driven (i.e. probably worthless) opinion, I'm now gonna say that Marriage Story and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (which I still haven't seen) are the co-frontrunners, though I do acknowledge T'Chenka's persuasive argument regarding Parasite.

[T'Chenka]

I saw The Irishman last week. I thought it was a really good movie, and I really liked how Scorsese sort of counter-glamorized mob films (and went over some fairly accurate political history!) even while he made a classic Scorsese film.

But I would also say that it wasn't quite as good as Goodfellas, and it was obviously very, very long. Without the need to give Scorsese an Oscar (given his Best Picture and Best Director win for Departed) I'm skeptical that it will win BP (though it will almost certainly be nominated).

I like The Irishman, but my personal preferences to win Best Picture are:

COULD ACTUALLY WIN
1 - Parasite
2 - Marruage Story
3 - Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
4/5 - The Irishman
4/5 - 1917  ---  (haven't seen yet)

OUT OF NOWHERE SHOCK WINNER
6/7- Jojo Rabbit
7/8 - Joker
6/7/8 - Little Women  ---  (haven't seen yet)

NO REAL SHOT TO WIN
9 - The Two Popes
10 - Bombshell
11 - Ford V Ferrari

In my intuition-driven (i.e. probably worthless) opinion, I'm now gonna say that Marriage Story and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (which I still haven't seen) are the co-frontrunners, though I do acknowledge T'Chenka's persuasive argument regarding Parasite.

Based on all the awards nominations and actual awards that happen at this time of year, big and small, things are always in a state of flux from week to week. The most influential things remaining before the Oscars are the Golden Globes, the SAG Awards, and both nominations and awards for the BAFTAs and PGAs.

Based on what the experts and armchair "experts" are all saying this week, The Irishman (#1), Parasite (#2) and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (#3) are the three front-runners right now. The Irishman is very very slowly trending downwards and Parasite is very very slowly trending upwards. Hollywood probably won't rise any higher, so it will only "move up" by Irishman or Parasite dropping down.

Marriage Story was in the top 4 as a front-runner as early as 2 weeks ago, but suprisingly it has basically fallen out of "front-runner" status and dropped to a second tier as #4, still above 1917 at #5 and still way above the third tier (Jojo Rabbit, Joker), fourth tier (Little Women) and fifth tier (Ford V Ferrari, The Two Popes, Bombshell). The main reason for this is that it keeps getting snubbed for Best Director nominations, which are going to Joker and Little Women instead.

[Orser67]

Marriage Story was in the top 4 as a front-runner as early as 2 weeks ago, but suprisingly it has basically fallen out of "front-runner" status and dropped to a second tier as #4, still above 1917 at #5 and still way above the third tier (Jojo Rabbit, Joker), fourth tier (Little Women) and fifth tier (Ford V Ferrari, The Two Popes, Bombshell). The main reason for this is that it keeps getting snubbed for Best Director nominations, which are going to Joker and Little Women instead.

Fair point, and TIL that Crash was the most recent film to win BP without being nominated for Best Director at the Golden Globes. On the other hand, I remember a few years ago Argo surprised a lot of people by winning Best Picture even though Affleck wasn't nominated for Best Director at the Academy Awards.

[T'Chenka]

Marriage Story was in the top 4 as a front-runner as early as 2 weeks ago, but suprisingly it has basically fallen out of "front-runner" status and dropped to a second tier as #4, still above 1917 at #5 and still way above the third tier (Jojo Rabbit, Joker), fourth tier (Little Women) and fifth tier (Ford V Ferrari, The Two Popes, Bombshell). The main reason for this is that it keeps getting snubbed for Best Director nominations, which are going to Joker and Little Women instead.

Fair point, and TIL that Crash was the most recent film to win BP without being nominated for Best Director at the Golden Globes. On the other hand, I remember a few years ago Argo surprised a lot of people by winning Best Picture even though Affleck wasn't nominated for Best Director at the Academy Awards.

I was planning on making a post specifically about this right before the Oscars, but perhaps I'll just re-quote this post at that time. The Best Picture winner also wins either Director or Screenplay or both at the Oscars 95% of the time. If it wins both, it's 95% likely to win Picture. Last year right before they announced Best Picture, the odds of it being anything other than Green Book (Original Screenplay) or Blakkklansman (Adapted Screenplay) or Roma (Director) were 5% or less.

When you watch the actual awards live, Screenplay and Director are HUGE hints as to who will not be winning Picture at the end of the night. For example, last year with The Favourite, Green Book winning Screenplay was s dagger in The Favourite's heart, since Roma was a lock for Director. Two years ago, Get Out winning Screenplay wss a dagger in the heart of Three Billboards, especially since it wasn't even nominated for Director. If Marruage Story isn't nominated for Director this year, it's Best Picture chances drop to 5% or less if it doesn't win Screenplay.

BEST PICTURE last ten years:

- Green Book (Original Screenplay)
- The Shape Of Water (Director)
- Moonlight (Adapted Screenplay)
- Spotlight (Original Screenplay)
- Birdman (Director + Original Screenplay)
- 12 Years A Slave (Adapted Screenplay)
- Argo (Adapted Screenplay)
- The Artist (Director)
- The King's Speech (Director + Original Screenplay)
- The Hurt Locker (Director + Original Screenplay)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I saw The Two Popes and I really liked it, but I agree with T’Chenka’s observations about why it won’t be for everyone.  Great acting, excellent screenplay (despite being kinda slow at times, I was never the least bit bored), and just a really thoughtful, well-made film.  A religious film in the best sense and a very insightful one at that.  It’s also a beautiful film to watch even if the cinematography sometimes left a bit to be desired.  I’d give it an A-  Watch the trailer first though.  If you see it and think you’d like a deep, dialogue-heavy film along those lines then I highly recommend it.  Otherwise, you might wanna sit this one out.  Then again, it’s on Netflix so you can always shut it off if you don’t like it.

Oscar talk:

This has a shot at getting either the fourth or fifth adapted screenplay slot although it’s not a lock.  Jonathan Pryce and especially Anthony Hopkins do have a real - albeit less than 50% - chance of sneaking in for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor nominations respectively (even though they’re really both leads and the real supporting performance is the guy who played a younger Pope Francis in the flashbacks).  B/c of the Academy’s preferential voting system, I’d be shocked if this film got a BP nomination...not b/c it is undeserving, but b/c nominees in all categories are determined by the films with the most first place votes from that branch of the academy.*  Only the Oscars and the guilds do it that way.
————————
Warning: Incoming Inside Baseball (just skip ahead if not interested)

What this means is for, say, BP, you don’t vote for your top ten (otherwise a BP nod, Adapted Screenplay nod, and probably a nomination for Hopkins would be locks and Pryce would have a good shot at a nomination).  The Producer’s Branch members each vote for just one film and then once you have the nominees, the whole academy votes in every category.  This is an under-appreciated factor in who gets nominated (ex: Captain Philips would’ve been a lock for Best Director and Best Actor nods under a normal voting system, but was the sort of film likely to get a lot of 3-5th place votes, so it missed out in both categories). 

They briefly BP an exception to this rule and allow the producers branch to have ten votes (top ten films) for the 2010 Oscars, but a few films got nominated that the academy felt were from “low art genres” like The Blind Side (mainstream crowd pleaser/sports film), District 9 (Sci-Fi), A Serious Man (comedy), and Up (animated film).  Up and District 9’s BP nods in particular pissed off a lot of folks in the academy.  The academy promptly opted to return to the “pick one film” rule as a sort of genre gerrymandering of BP nominations. 
______________________
Inside baseball over.

Ultimately, preferential favors two types of films in the nominations voting: 1) Obvious Oscar bait frontrunners like The King’s Speech, Spotlight, La La Land [or really anything about Hollywood that depicts it as a magical place], Green Book, etc and 2) Films like Jojo Rabbit, Joker, The Wolf of Wall Street, Tarantino films, etc which are very much not for everyone, but that are absolutely beloved rather than just liked/respected by those who enjoyed them.  All of which is to say that I doubt anyone considers The Two Popes the best film of the year even if many academy members will consider it a top ten film. 

Similarly, Jonathan Pryce is so beloved in the film industry that many want him to get “his” Oscar nomination at some point (and you better believe the academy is that superficial about this stuff; “s/he’s overdue” is probably the single best narrative someone seeking an acting nomination could hope for), but is it enough to get Pryce the fifth most first place votes?  Hopkins gives his best performance in over twenty years, but is it good enough to crack the Best Supporting Actor field as an actor who has already won an Oscar and has periodically annoyed the academy by publicly expressing his contempt for the idea of actors campaigning for Oscar nominations (lest we forget many Academy members publicly called for Mo’nique not to be nominated for Precious [she ultimately won] b/c she “isn’t showing us the respect we deserve [by campaigning for an Oscar],” these are some petty folks). 

Anyway, we’ll see what happens, but I doubt it gets more than a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination.  Tbh, Pryce not getting a Best Actor nomination from the SAG might be a death blow to his chances since they use preferential voting and are the industry group most likely to be inclined to nominate a beloved, widely respected actor like Pryce.  The Globes are a bit weird [they’re less useful for predicting nominations since they’re mainly used as A) FYC to Academy members with a mountain of screeners to get through and B) a way for Globes winners to give a good speech to show the Academy members “hey, you’ll feel good about me being on the stage if I win”] and DiCaprio is a lock for a Best Actor nomination, but was nominated in the musical or comedy category at the Globes.

[T'Chenka]

Similarly, Jonathan Pryce is so beloved in the film industry that many want him to get “his” Oscar nomination at some point (and you better believe the academy is that superficial about this stuff; “s/he’s overdue” is probably the single best narrative someone seeking an acting nomination could hope for), but is it enough to get Pryce the fifth most first place votes?  Hopkins gives his best performance in over twenty years, but is it good enough to crack the Best Supporting Actor field as an actor who has already won an Oscar and has periodically annoyed the academy by publicly expressing his contempt for the idea of actors campaigning for Oscar nominations (lest we forget many Academy members publicly called for Mo’nique not to be nominated for Precious [she ultimately won] b/c she “isn’t showing us the respect we deserve [by campaigning for an Oscar],” these are some petty folks). 

Anyway, we’ll see what happens, but I doubt it gets more than a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination.  Tbh, Pryce not getting a Best Actor nomination from the SAG might be a death blow to his chances since they use preferential voting and are the industry group most likely to be inclined to nominate a beloved, widely respected actor like Pryce.  The Globes are a bit weird [they’re less useful for predicting nominations since they’re mainly used as A) FYC to Academy members with a mountain of screeners to get through and B) a way for Globes winners to give a good speech to show the Academy members “hey, you’ll feel good about me being on the stage if I win”] and DiCaprio is a lock for a Best Actor nomination, but was nominated in the musical or comedy category at the Globes.

You're not wrong, but the Oscars aren't 100% predictable, despite definitely being 95% predictable. Almost nobody but Roma stans were predicting Marina De Tavira to get a Best Supporting Actress nomination. It came way out of left field. After the Golden Globes, I'm simply not willing to write this film or these actors off just yet.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Similarly, Jonathan Pryce is so beloved in the film industry that many want him to get “his” Oscar nomination at some point (and you better believe the academy is that superficial about this stuff; “s/he’s overdue” is probably the single best narrative someone seeking an acting nomination could hope for), but is it enough to get Pryce the fifth most first place votes?  Hopkins gives his best performance in over twenty years, but is it good enough to crack the Best Supporting Actor field as an actor who has already won an Oscar and has periodically annoyed the academy by publicly expressing his contempt for the idea of actors campaigning for Oscar nominations (lest we forget many Academy members publicly called for Mo’nique not to be nominated for Precious [she ultimately won] b/c she “isn’t showing us the respect we deserve [by campaigning for an Oscar],” these are some petty folks). 

Anyway, we’ll see what happens, but I doubt it gets more than a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination.  Tbh, Pryce not getting a Best Actor nomination from the SAG might be a death blow to his chances since they use preferential voting and are the industry group most likely to be inclined to nominate a beloved, widely respected actor like Pryce.  The Globes are a bit weird [they’re less useful for predicting nominations since they’re mainly used as A) FYC to Academy members with a mountain of screeners to get through and B) a way for Globes winners to give a good speech to show the Academy members “hey, you’ll feel good about me being on the stage if I win”] and DiCaprio is a lock for a Best Actor nomination, but was nominated in the musical or comedy category at the Globes.

You're not wrong, but the Oscars aren't 100% predictable, despite definitely being 95% predictable. Almost nobody but Roma stans were predicting Marina De Tavira to get a Best Supporting Actress nomination. It came way out of left field. After the Golden Globes, I'm simply not willing to write this film or these actors off just yet.

Pryce and Hopkins could still sneak in, a BP nod would shock me though.

[Orser67]

They briefly BP an exception to this rule and allow the producers branch to have ten votes (top ten films) for the 2010 Oscars, but a few films got nominated that the academy felt were from “low art genres” like The Blind Side (mainstream crowd pleaser/sports film), District 9 (Sci-Fi), A Serious Man (comedy), and Up (animated film).  Up and District 9’s BP nods in particular pissed off a lot of folks in the academy.  The academy promptly opted to return to the “pick one film” rule as a sort of genre gerrymandering of BP nominations. 

That's a shame, Up and District 9 were both very good films, and there's nothing wrong with the Academy giving BP noms to particularly good animated/genre films. I'd easily take both of those films over e.g. War Horse and Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

They briefly BP an exception to this rule and allow the producers branch to have ten votes (top ten films) for the 2010 Oscars, but a few films got nominated that the academy felt were from “low art genres” like The Blind Side (mainstream crowd pleaser/sports film), District 9 (Sci-Fi), A Serious Man (comedy), and Up (animated film).  Up and District 9’s BP nods in particular pissed off a lot of folks in the academy.  The academy promptly opted to return to the “pick one film” rule as a sort of genre gerrymandering of BP nominations. 

That's a shame, Up and District 9 were both very good films, and there's nothing wrong with the Academy giving BP noms to particularly good animated/genre films. I'd easily take both of those films over e.g. War Horse and Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close.

Agreed

[ricardotor]

The biggest problem is the movie’s length.  3 and a half hours is a long time and you feel it.  The movie is okay quality-wise, but once you get to hours and realize you’ve got another hour and a half of meh, it feels more and more like a chore.  It’s also a pretty slow movie.  Plus De Niro still moves like an old person, so that was really distracting.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The biggest problem is the movie’s length.  3 and a half hours is a long time and you feel it.  The movie is okay quality-wise, but once you get to hours and realize you’ve got another hour and a half of meh, it feels more and more like a chore.  It’s also a pretty slow movie.  Plus De Niro still moves like an old person, so that was really distracting.

Couldn't agree more

[Landslide Lyndon]

Who are these Academy members who had a problem with Up being nominated but were ok with Black Panther or Hacksaw Ridge?
What a bunch of idiots.

[T'Chenka]

LITTLE WOMEN (very mild spoilers only)

This is a really good coming-of-age classic tale, remade pretty well by Greta Gerwig. I don't know what else to say besides giving my pros and cons, but it's a very solid film and I would recommend it to anybody who likes the premise.


CRITICISMS
- The script is the weak point, specifically how it jumps back and forward in time. It works suprisingly well in most regards, but the non-linear timeline softens the emotional blows unfortunately.
-  I felt that the side characters could've been fleshed out a little bit more. The movie being 5-10 minutes longer in order to do that would've been okay with me, despite already being over 2 hours as is.

DESERVES PRAISE
The sets, costumes, camera work were all pretty good
- The main 7 actors plus a few side actors were all VERY good
- All of the emotional scenes hit hard due to acting, despite script softening blows

BEYOND PRAISE-WORTHY, TRULY GREAT
- Saoirse Ronan and Florence Pugh are SO good. Cannot praise them enough
- If Florence Pugh doesn't get her Best Supporting Actress Oscar nomination, we riot

FINAL SCORE
A minus (briefly considered B PLUS)

OSCAR TALK
This is a front-runner for Best Costume Design, also has a very good shot at nominations for Best Original Score and a 50/50 shot at Best Production Design. Saoirse Ronan is very likely to get a Best Actress nom, Florence Pugh is 50/50 on getting a Best Supporting Actress nom. Chalamet won't get a Best Supporting Actor nom with better competition this year. Best Adapted Screenplay is a very very likely nomination. Greta is going to probably just miss out on Best Director, unless Marriage Story and Joker both miss. The 8th slot for Best Picture should belong to Little Women, though it could be stolen by Ford V Ferrari, The Two Popes, Bombshell, or in a longshot scenario by Uncut Gems, The Farewell or Knives Out.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The biggest problem is the movie’s length.  3 and a half hours is a long time and you feel it.  The movie is okay quality-wise, but once you get to hours and realize you’ve got another hour and a half of meh, it feels more and more like a chore.  It’s also a pretty slow movie.  Plus De Niro still moves like an old person, so that was really distracting.

Couldn't agree more

On top of that, around the two hour mark the movie just gets f***ing repetitive. That's my biggest issue with it outside the unnecessary length.

*Spoilers?*

How many God damn scenes did we need of Sheeran having a conversation with Bufalino or Hoffa about how Hoffa either needs to stop putting his interests ahead of the mob's or how he needs to get whacked!? There is like a 45 minute segment of the film where this is all that happens, starting with that seemingly never-ending scene at Frank Sheeran's party. Oh, sometimes they're eating. That changes it up, right? No! I don't mind a long, slow movie, including other Sorcese films, but 'The Irishman' was just self-indulgent.

[T'Chenka]

This will be my second Oscar predictions, before the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, BAFTA nominations, PGA nominations, BAFTAs and PGAs. I will do a third and final prediction in the final week before the Oscars.

EDIT - Also, like my first predictions, I'm predicting all the nominees AND the winners. Nominees are announced in two weeks, and my final predictions will be after that, and therefore only predicting the award winners.


BEST PICTURE
Parasite
The Irishman
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Marriage Story
1917
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women

BEST DIRECTOR
Parasite
The Irishman
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
1917
Joker

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Marriage Story
Parasite
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Knives Out
The Farewell

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
The Two Popes
A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood

BEST ACTOR
Marriage Story - Adam Driver
Joker - Joaquin Phoenix
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood - Leonardi DiCaprio
Pain & Glory - Antonio Banderas
Ford V Ferrari - Christian Bale

BEST ACTRESS
Judy - Renee Zellweger
Marriage Story - Scarlett Johansson
Bombshell - Charlize Theron
Little Women - Saoirse Ronan
Harriet - Cynthia Erivo

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood - Brad Pitt
The Irishman - Joe Pesci
A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood - Tom Hanks
The Irishman - Al Pacino
The Two Popes - Anthony Hopkins

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Marriage Story - Laura Dern
Hustlers - Jennifer Lopez
Bombshell - Margot Robbie
Little Women - Florence Pugh
Richard Jewell - Cathy Bates

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Parasite
Pain & Glory
Les Miserables
Atlantics
Beanpole

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Toy Story 4
Frozen II
How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Missing Link

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Factory
Apollo 11
One Child Nation
For Sama
Honeyland

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Joker
The Irishman
Portrait Of A Lady On Fire

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Irishman
Avengers: Endgame
The Lion King
1917
Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker

BEST EDITING
The Irishman
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Parasite
Ford V Ferrari
Marriage Story

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
1917
Parasite
The Irishman
Joker

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Little Women
Dolemite Is My Name
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Rocketman
Downton Abbey

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Bombshell
Judy
Rocketman
Joker
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Marriage Story
1917
Joker
Little Women
Motherless Brooklyn

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Rocketman - (I'm Gonna) Love Me Again
Frozen II - Into The Unknown
Harriet - Stand Up
Toy Story 4 - I Won't Let You Throw Yourself Away
The Lion King - Spirit

BEST SOUND EDITING
Ford V Ferrari
1917
Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Joker

BEST SOUND MIXING
Ford v Ferrari
1917
Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker
Rocketman
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

BEST (Documentary, Live-Action, Animated) SHORT
I honestly don't care about short films and these 3 awards. Maybe I should, but it is what it is.



4 Oscars - Marriage Story
3 Oscars - Parasite, The Irishman
2 Oscars - Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, Ford V Ferrari
1 Oscar -  1917, Little Women, Bombshell, Rocketman...
                ...Judy, Toy Story 4, American Factory


12 Nominations - Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
9 Nominations - The Irishman
8 Nominations - 1917, Joker
7 Nominations - Marriage Story
6 Nominations - Parasite, Little Women
4 Nominations - Ford V Ferrari, Rocketman
3 Nominations - Bombshell, Star Wars: The Rise Of Sywalker
2 Nominations - Jojo Rabbit, The Two Popes, A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood...
                         ...Pain & Glory, Judy, Harriet, Toy Story 4, Frozen II, The Lion King
1 Nomination  - The Farewell, Knives Out, Hustlers, Richard Jewell, Avengers: Endgame...
                         ...Portrait Of A Lady On Fire, Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, Motherless Brooklyn...
                        ...and all other international / documentary / animated nominees

[Progressive Pessimist]

With it being the last day of the year, here is every film of 2019 that I have seen, listed in order of how much I enjoyed them:

Invader Zim: Enter the Florpus
Marriage Story
Paddleton
Everybody Knows
Cold Pursuit
Shazam!
Us
Under the Silver Lake
Rocko’s Modern Life: Static Cling
How To Train Your Dragon 3
The Irishman
The Last Black Man In San Francisco
Serenity
The Fanatic
Loqueesha

[T'Chenka]

With it being the last day of the year, here is every film of 2019 that I have seen, listed in order of how much I enjoyed them:

Invader Zim: Enter the Florpus
Marriage Story
Paddleton
Everybody Knows
Cold Pursuit
Shazam!
Us
Under the Silver Lake
Rocko’s Modern Life: Static Cling
How To Train Your Dragon 3
The Irishman
The Last Black Man In San Francisco
Serenity
The Fanatic
Loqueesha

Thoughts:

- A movie worse than The Fanatic? Wow. Impressive, almost.
- Isn't Rocko's Modern Life: Static Cling a mini-series not a film?
- I hope you eventually get to see Parasite

[Progressive Pessimist]

With it being the last day of the year, here is every film of 2019 that I have seen, listed in order of how much I enjoyed them:

Invader Zim: Enter the Florpus
Marriage Story
Paddleton
Everybody Knows
Cold Pursuit
Shazam!
Us
Under the Silver Lake
Rocko’s Modern Life: Static Cling
How To Train Your Dragon 3
The Irishman
The Last Black Man In San Francisco
Serenity
The Fanatic
Loqueesha

Thoughts:

- A movie worse than The Fanatic? Wow. Impressive, almost.
- Isn't Rocko's Modern Life: Static Cling a mini-series not a film?
- I hope you eventually get to see Parasite

'Loqueesha' is a film released to Amazon Prime that depicts a white guy getting a job as a radio host who gives advice to people. However, he's posing as a black woman when he hosts the show because they wanted to hire more people of color for their programs. The movie isn't as overtly racist as you might think, but in trying to be self-aware of that aspect and trying to seem smarter than it is, it becomes offensive in an entirely different way. This movie thinks it's somehow going to solve racism yet falls flat on its face with the message it wants to communicate. It's also a "comedy" that is far less humorous than 'The Fanatic' and is extremely cheaply made. I enjoy terrible movies often, and this one isn't quite in that "funny-bad" category like 'The Fanatic' is, but is uniquely baffling still.

And 'Rocko's Modern Life: Static Cling' was one 45 minute movie released on Netflix.