Oppenheimer wins 7 Oscars (Best Picture) (film & awards)

[T'Chenka]

Of all the different awarfs ceremonies nominees and winners that tend to indicate who will get Oscar nominations, the Golden Globes are probably the most relevant, followed by the BAFTAs, followed by the Critics Choice Awards and PGAs. We'll be getting the Golden Globe nominees announcement tomorrow, and today we have the Critics Choice Awards nominees.

In 2020, from early January to mid January, we have those two awards ceremonies, the other two sets of nominees announced, the PGA awards and the Oscar nominees announced.

Early February is the BAFTAs and then the Oscars.


Critics Choice Awards nominees

BEST PICTURE
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Parasite
1917
Little Women
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Jojo Rabbit
Ford V Ferrari
Joker
Uncut Gems

BEST DIRECTOR
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Parasite
1917
Little Women
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Uncut Gems

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Marriage Story
Parasite
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
The Farewell
Knives Out

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman
Little Women
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
The Two Popes
A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood

BEST ACTOR
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Joker
Uncut Gems
Pain & Glory
Dolemite Is My Name

BEST ACTRESS
Marriage Story
Little Women
Bombshell
The Farewell
Us
Judy
Harriet

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The Irishman (Pesce)
The Irishman (Pacino)
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
The Two Popes
A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood
The Lighthouse

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Marriage Story
Little Women
Jojo Rabbit
Bombshell
The Farewell
Hustlers

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS (Non-Oscar category)
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Jojo Rabbit (Davis)
Jojo Rabbit (Mackenzie)
Jojo Rabbit (Yates)
Honey Boy
Us

BEST ENSEMBLE CAST (Non-Oscar category)
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Parasite
Little Women
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Bombshell
Knives Out

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Parasite
Pain & Glory
Portrait Of A Lady On Fire
Les Miserables
Atlantics

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Toy Story 4
Frozen II
How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Missing Link
Abominable

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Irishman
1917
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Ford V Ferrari
The Lighthouse

BEST EDITING
The Irishman
Parasite
1917
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Ford V Ferrari
Uncut Gems

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Irishman
1917
Ford V Ferrari
Avengers: Endgame
Ad Astra
The Aeronauts
The Lion King

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Irishman
Parasite
1917
Little Women
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Joker
Downton Abbey

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Irishman
Little Women
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Rocketman
Dolemite Is My Name
Downton Abbey

BEST HAIR & MAKEUP
The Irishman
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Bombshell
Joker
Rocketman
Dolemite Is My Name
Judy

BEST SCORE
The Irishman
Marriage Story
1917
Little Women
Joker
Us

BEST SONG
Rocketman
Harriet
Wild Rose
Frozen II
The Lion King
Aladdin
Breakthrough

BEST ACTION MOVIE (Non-Oscar category)
1917
Ford V Ferrari
Avengers: Endgame
Spider-Man: Far From Home
John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum

BEST COMEDY (Non-Oscar category)
Jojo Rabbit
The Farewell
Knives Out
Booksmart
Dolemite Is My Name

BEST SCI-FI OR HORROR MOVIE (Non-Oscar category)
Avengers: Endgame
Ad Astra
Us
Midsommar


My thoughts in the top 13 contenders...

- The Irishman did great
- Marriage Story doing good but no Editing no Cinematography
- Parasite doing well but no Cimematography and only Ensemble for acting
- 1917 doing as expected
- Little Women doing as expected
- Once Upon A Time In Hollywood doing good, no snubs
- Jojo Rabbit did poorly here, at least it got Screenplay and Supporting Actress
- Ford V Ferrari only gets Picture and technical stuff, no Actor
- Joker no Director no cimematography but overall did okay
- Bombshell doing bad, only acting and hair makeup
- The Two Popes did poorly, only Screenplay and Supporting Actor
- The Farewell doing as expected
- A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood did poorly, only Screenplay and Supporting Actor

- Uncut Gems did VERY well, has some shot at a Best Picture Oscar nomination now


If this ends up having some bearing on the final Oscars results, the Best Picture race would now look like this:

FRONT-RUNNERS
The Irishman, Marriage Story, Parasite

COULD WIN BEST PICTURE
1917, Little Women, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

WILL BE NOMINATED
Jojo Rabbit

JUST GET IN OR JUST MISS
Ford V Ferrari, Joker, The Farewell, Uncut Gems

WILDCARD TO GET IN
Bombshell, The Two Popes, A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Of all the different awarfs ceremonies nominees and winners that tend to indicate who will get Oscar nominations, the Golden Globes are probably the most relevant, followed by the BAFTAs, followed by the Critics Choice Awards and PGAs. We'll be getting the Golden Globe nominees announcement tomorrow, and today we have the Critics Choice Awards nominees.

In 2020, from early January to mid January, we have those two awards ceremonies, the other two sets of nominees announced, the PGA awards and the Oscar nominees announced.

Early February is the BAFTAs and then the Oscars.


Critics Choice Awards nominees

BEST PICTURE
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Parasite
1917
Little Women
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Ford V Ferrari
Joker
Uncut Gems

BEST DIRECTOR
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Parasite
1917
Little Women
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Uncut Gems

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Marriage Story
Parasite
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
The Farewell
Knives Out

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman
Little Women
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
The Two Popes
A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood

BEST ACTOR
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Joker
Uncut Gems
Pain & Glory
Dolemite Is My Name

BEST ACTRESS
Marriage Story
Little Women
Bombshell
The Farewell
Us
Judy
Harriet

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The Irishman (Pesce)
The Irishman (Pacino)
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
The Two Popes
A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood
The Lighthouse

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Marriage Story
Little Women
Jojo Rabbit
Bombshell
The Farewell
Hustlers

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS (Non-Oscar category)
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Jojo Rabbit (Davis)
Jojo Rabbit (Mackenzie)
Jojo Rabbit (Yates)
Honey Boy
Us

BEST ENSEMBLE CAST (Non-Oscar category)
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Parasite
Little Women
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Bombshell
Knives Out

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Parasite
Pain & Glory
Portrait Of A Lady On Fire
Les Miserables
Atlantics

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Toy Story 4
Frozen II
How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Missing Link
Abominable

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Irishman
1917
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Ford V Ferrari
The Lighthouse

BEST EDITING
The Irishman
Parasite
1917
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Ford V Ferrari
Uncut Gems

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Irishman
1917
Ford V Ferrari
Avengers: Endgame
Ad Astra
The Aeronauts
The Lion King

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Irishman
Parasite
1917
Little Women
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Joker
Downton Abbey

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Irishman
Little Women
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Rocketman
Dolemite Is My Name
Downton Abbey

BEST HAIR & MAKEUP
The Irishman
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Bombshell
Joker
Rocketman
Dolemite Is My Name
Judy

BEST SCORE
The Irishman
Marriage Story
1917
Little Women
Joker
Us

BEST SONG
Rocketman
Harriet
Wild Rose
Frozen II
The Lion King
Aladdin
Breakthrough

BEST ACTION MOVIE (Non-Oscar category)
1917
Ford V Ferrari
Avengers: Endgame
Spider-Man: Far From Home
John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum

BEST COMEDY (Non-Oscar category)
Jojo Rabbit
The Farewell
Knives Out
Booksmart
Dolemite Is My Name

BEST SCI-FI OR HORROR MOVIE (Non-Oscar category)
Avengers: Endgame
Ad Astra
Us
Midsommar


My thoughts in the top 13 contenders...

- The Irishman did great
- Marriage Story doing good but no Editing no Cinematography
- Parasite doing well but no Cimematography and only Ensemble for acting
- 1917 doing as expected
- Little Women doing as expected
- Once Upon A Time In Hollywood doing good, no snubs
- Jojo Rabbit did poorly here, at least it got Screenplay and Supporting Actress
- Ford V Ferrari only gets Picture and technical stuff, no Actor
- Joker no Director no cimematography but overall did okay
- Bombshell doing bad, only acting and hair makeup
- The Two Popes did poorly, only Screenplay and Supporting Actor
- The Farewell doing as expected
- A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood did poorly, only Screenplay and Supporting Actor

- Uncut Gems did VERY well, has some shot at a Best Picture Oscar nomination now


If this ends up having some bearing on the final Oscars results, the Best Picture race would now look like this:

FRONT-RUNNERS
The Irishman, Marriage Story, Parasite

COULD WIN BEST PICTURE
1917, Little Women, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

WILL BE NOMINATED
Jojo Rabbit

JUST GET IN OR JUST MISS
Ford V Ferrari, Joker, The Farewell, Uncut Gems

WILDCARD TO GET IN
Bombshell, The Two Popes, A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood

Gotta disagree, this group was never going to be among Jojo Rabbit’s strongest supporters whereas Parasite needs to absolute clean up with critics groups to have any shot at winning Best Picture.  At this point the contenders for a BP win are (in order)

Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (Hollywood loves seeing itself romanticized)
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit (this is definitely the “everyone at the Thanksgiving table will like it even if only some of people love it” contender)
Marriage Story (if it gets best director and best editing nods...watch out)

Parasite will definitely be nominated, but right now I doubt it has more than an outside shot although a Best Director win is still possible.  Any acting nominations seem extremely unlikely though tbh.

Also not to nitpick, but Jojo Rabbit did get nominated for Best Picture

[T'Chenka]

My thoughts in the top 13 contenders...

- The Irishman did great
- Marriage Story doing good but no Editing no Cinematography
- Parasite doing well but no Cimematography and only Ensemble for acting
- 1917 doing as expected
- Little Women doing as expected
- Once Upon A Time In Hollywood doing good, no snubs
- Jojo Rabbit did poorly here, at least it got Screenplay and Supporting Actress
- Ford V Ferrari only gets Picture and technical stuff, no Actor
- Joker no Director no cimematography but overall did okay
- Bombshell doing bad, only acting and hair makeup
- The Two Popes did poorly, only Screenplay and Supporting Actor
- The Farewell doing as expected
- A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood did poorly, only Screenplay and Supporting Actor

- Uncut Gems did VERY well, has some shot at a Best Picture Oscar nomination now


If this ends up having some bearing on the final Oscars results, the Best Picture race would now look like this:

FRONT-RUNNERS
The Irishman, Marriage Story, Parasite

COULD WIN BEST PICTURE
1917, Little Women, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

WILL BE NOMINATED
Jojo Rabbit

JUST GET IN OR JUST MISS
Ford V Ferrari, Joker, The Farewell, Uncut Gems

WILDCARD TO GET IN
Bombshell, The Two Popes, A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood

Gotta disagree, this group was never going to be among Jojo Rabbit’s strongest supporters whereas Parasite needs to absolute clean up with critics groups to have any shot at winning Best Picture.  At this point the contenders for a BP win are (in order)

Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (Hollywood loves seeing itself romanticized)
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit (this is definitely the “everyone at the Thanksgiving table will like it even if only some of people love it” contender)
Marriage Story (if it gets best director and best editing nods...watch out)

Marriage Story is my hope to win Best Picture, on the strength of Original Screenplay, Actor, Actress and some technical Oscars. The only movie I'd prefer at this stage is Parasite, which is more of a long shot. To win Best Picture, Parasite like you said needs to win Best Director or have both of Marriage Story and The Irishman underperform, or both. The third option in my mind is the most likely, where The Irishman wins based on Adapted Screenplay, acting, and technical. If The Irishman gets both Adapted Screenplay and Director, the game is over for everybody else.

Outside of those 3, my gut tells me Once Upon A Time In Hollywood isn't happening and I would kind of be okay with Jojo Rabbit being this year's version of Crash / Green Nook and winning over better films. I loved Jojo Rabbit so much.

Parasite will definitely be nominated, but right now I doubt it has more than an outside shot although a Best Director win is still possible.  Any acting nominations seem extremely unlikely though tbh.

I'm still holding out hope on acting, but it's looking unlikely.

Also not to nitpick, but Jojo Rabbit did get nominated for Best Picture

Thanks I missed that. This is good news IMO.

[T'Chenka]

MARRIAGE STORY (no spoilers)

I'm having a hard time reviewing this. It was overall just so damn good, that I can't really say what was bad (nothing) or what were the strong points of the film (everything). This is my generation's Kramer Vs Kramer, and I can say with confidence that Marriage Story is the better film and therefore an instant classic. Drop everything you're doing, log onto Netflix and watch this movie right now. You owe it to yourself. I was blown away when I saw this late Thursday night, and I'm thinking about it all the time still days later.

DECENT BUT NOT GREAT
- Alan Alda
- Ray Liotta
- The pacing
- The smaller characters in the movie

DESERVES A LOT OF PRAISE
- Laura Dern
- The how good and confident in itself the script is
- The underrated subtle cinematography
- The emotion
- How REAL this movie feels

DESERVE MORE THAN PRAISE, WORSHIP-WORTHY
- Adam Driver
- Scarlett Johansson

FINAL SCORE
A (maybe A plus, I'll think on it)

OSCAR TALK
This is a big player for Best Picture, Original Screenplay, Actor, Actress and Supporting Actress. It also has a reasonable chance at Director, Cinematography, Editing and Score. Unlikely but possible is Supporting Actor. This is IMO going to win Best Picture unless the Academy goes with The Irishman (likely) or Parasite (unlikely). What a film.

[Progressive Pessimist]

MARRIAGE STORY (no spoilers)

I'm having a hard time reviewing this. It was overall just so damn good, that I can't really say what was bad (nothing) or what were the strong points of the film (everything). This is my generation's Kramer Vs Kramer, and I can say with confidence that Marriage Story is the better film and therefore an instant classic. Drop everything you're doing, log onto Netflix and watch this movie right now. You owe it to yourself. I was blown away when I saw this late Thursday night, and I'm thinking about it all the time still days later.

DECENT BUT NOT GREAT
- Alan Alda
- Ray Liotta
- The pacing
- The smaller characters in the movie

DESERVES A LOT OF PRAISE
- Laura Dern
- The how good and confident in itself the script is
- The underrated subtle cinematography
- The emotion
- How REAL this movie feels

DESERVE MORE THAN PRAISE, WORSHIP-WORTHY
- Adam Driver
- Scarlett Johansson

FINAL SCORE
A (maybe A plus, I'll think on it)

OSCAR TALK
This is a big player for Best Picture, Original Screenplay, Actor, Actress and Supporting Actress. It also has a reasonable chance at Director, Cinematography, Editing and Score. Unlikely but possible is Supporting Actor. This is IMO going to win Best Picture unless the Academy goes with The Irishman (likely) or Parasite (unlikely). What a film.

I'm in the process of watching it. It's another one of those that I've had to watch in pieces. I'll get back to you with my thoughts, if I feel like I have anything to add.

[T'Chenka]

Golden Globes nominations are here!

Joker and The Two Popes did very well, definitely better than Ford V Ferrari and Bombshell. These movies are all just outside the top 7 for Best Picture Oscar nominations, fighting fir the #8 spot and a possibly #9 (and #10?) spot. Golden Globes are probably the biggest film awards that influence and/or reveal how the Oscars might go, so this is big news.

Little Women was not nominated for Best Picture or Director, with The Two Popes and Joker taking it's places.

Also big news, Marriage Story and Little Women were both not nominated for Best Director, but Joker was.

Robert DeNiro wasn't nominated for Best Actor, it went to Anthony Hopkins instead.

Knives Out did pretty good, but other movies trying to get in - or back in - to the conversation got nothing done here... The Lighthouse, Just Mercy, A Hidden Life, Queen & Slim, Waves, The Aeronauts and Clemency. The only nomination for A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood was Tom Hanks, so it looks like a Best Picture nomination is really slipping away fast for that film.

Golden Globe Awards nominees

BEST PICTURE
The Irishman (drama)
Marriage Story (drama)
1917 (drama)
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (comedy/musical)
Jojo Rabbit (comedy/musical)
Joker (drama)
The Two Popes (drama)
Knives Out (comedy/musical)
Rocketman (comedy/musical)
Dolemite Is My Name (comedy/musical)

BEST DIRECTOR
The Irishman
Parasite
1917
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Joker

BEST SCREENPLAY
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Parasite
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
The Two Popes

BEST ACTOR
Marriage Story (drama)
Joker (drama)
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (comedy/musical)
The Two Popes (drama)
Pain & Glory (drama)
Ford V Ferrari (drama)
Rocketman (comedy/musical)
Dolemite Is My Name (comedy/musical)
Jojo Rabbit (comedy/musical)
Knives Out (comedy/musical)

BEST ACTRESS
Judy (drama)
Marriage Story (drama)
Little Women (drama)
Bombshell (drama)
The Farewell (comedy/musical)
Harriet (drama)
Knives Out (comedy/musical)
Booksmart (comedy/musical)
Late Night (comedy/musical)
Where'd You Go Bernadette (comedy/musical)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
The Irishman (Pesce)
A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood
The Irishman (Pacino)
The Two Popes

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Marriage Story
Bombshell
Hustlers
The Report
Richard Jewell

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Parasite
The Farewell
Pain & Glory
Portrait Of A Lady On Fire
Les Miserables

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Toy Story 4
Frozen II
How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Missing Link
The Lion King

BEST SCORE
1917
Marriage Story
Little Women
Joker
Motherless Brooklyn

BEST SONG
Rocketman
Harriet
Frozen II
The Lion King
Cats

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Always happy to see Roman Griffin Davis getting some unexpected, but very well-deserved recognition

[Orser67]

Still haven't seen most of the Best Picture front-runners, but I just saw Marriage Story, and I thought it was really good. I definitely think it's good enough to win BP.

Ford v. Ferrari was the ultimate dad movie (and in fact, my dad really liked it). I thought it was a solid, entertaining film that was a little long. Along with Rocket Man, Booksmart, and Dolemite is My Name, I'd be fine with it getting a BP nomination, but I wouldn't want it to win Best Picture.

[Orser67]

For 2017, my favorite film was Thor: Ragnarok. But in terms of Best Picture, I would have given it to Lady Bird. I really liked the first half of Three Billboards, but it fell apart for me in the second half. The Shape of Water was a good movie but I didn't think it deserved to win. My rankings of 2017:

Very good: Lady Bird, The Post, Florida Project, The Big Sick, The Death of Stalin, Blade Runner 2049, Thor Ragnarok

Good: Three Billboards, Logan Lucky, Wind River, Get Out, Darkest Hour, Guardians of the Galaxy 2, Baby Driver, Mudbound, Spider-Man Homecoming, Wonder Woman, The Shape of Water, I Tonya, Mother!, Good Time, The Disaster Artist, Logan, The Meyerowitz Stories, probably a few others

Ok: First Reformed, Phantom Thread, Dunkirk, The Lost City of Z, Columbus

Most disappointing: Last Jedi, Alien Covenant

Worst movie I saw all year: Singularity

[T'Chenka]

Still haven't seen most of the Best Picture front-runners, but I just saw Marriage Story, and I thought it was really good. I definitely think it's good enough to win BP.

Ford v. Ferrari was the ultimate dad movie (and in fact, my dad really liked it). I thought it was a solid, entertaining film that was a little long. Along with Rocket Man, Booksmart, and Dolemite is My Name, I'd be fine with it getting a BP nomination, but I wouldn't want it to win Best Picture.

As far as Best Picture goes, the movies that can actually win the award at this point are The Irishman, Parasite, Marriage Story and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, with 1917 being an underdog 5th option and Jojo Rabbit being a long-shot highly unlikely 6th option. There is theoretically a chance for a few movies to go from a 0% chance of winning up to a 5% long-shot chance between now and the Oscars, those movies being Little Women, Joker and The Two Popes. So there are 4 or 5 real contenders and 9 total contenders at this point.

The other movies people mention in regards to Best Picture can only hope for a nomination at best, which is still a big deal in itself. Those movies are Ford V Ferrari, Bombshell, The Farewell, Knives Out, Uncut Gems, A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood, and then again for this category there are 5 or 10 highly unlikely other movies with a 10% chance or less of sneaking in as a suprise nomination.

Out of the 9 actual contenders, I've seen 6, and the one I would recommend most to anybody is Parasite. Totally worth a watch if you get the chance to see it.

[AtorBoltox]

I'm surprised The Farewell isn't getting much love this awards season. It seems like the type of movie critics would love. IMO it was better than Marriage Story, which was also very good, and certainly better than Joker

[T'Chenka]

I'm surprised The Farewell isn't getting much love this awards season. It seems like the type of movie critics would love. IMO it was better than Marriage Story, which was also very good, and certainly better than Joker

It's doing okay IMO. It got Golden Globes nominations for Foreign Language Film, Actress (Comedy/Musical), and likely would have gotten Screenplay as well if The Golden Globes zplit it into two categories in the same way that the Oscars do.

At the Oscars, it still has a really good shot at Screenplay and Actress, and has small chances at Picture and Supporting Actress. Those last two will likely need a few nominations from other awards in the next 2 months, which is possible.

The direct competitor movies for Best Picture are The Two Popes, Ford V Ferrari and Bombshell. There are between 0 and 2 slots left and The Farewell could realistically beat out those films to get in. Florence Pugh getting snubbed at the Oscars is also good for The Farewell for Best Supporting Actress. Annette Bening and Cathy Bates - at this point - haven't solidified their status in the category and could be bumped out between now and February. Dern is a lock and I don't see Robbie or Lopez getting bumped out.

The SAG nominations coming out in just a few hours are going to give us a better look at the acting categories, which will be interesting.

EDIT - Also a REALLY important point that I missed. The rules of the Golden Globes are that foreign films are not allowed to compete for Best Picture. That's why Parasite didn't get a Best Picture nomination. It's very reasonable to assume that The Farewell would have beaten out Dolemite Is My Name and maybe also Rocketman if it was allowed into the Best Picture category. Therefore, the Golden Globes did not make any sort of an indication whether or not The Farewell is worthy of a Best Picture Oscar nomination. There was no snub here whatsoever, and IMO it's very likely tbat it would have been nominated if the rules were different.

[T'Chenka]

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD NOMINATIONS.

Akwafina got snubbed for Nyongo and Zhao Shuzhen (as well as Annette Bening and Cathy Bates) didn't get in over Scarlet Johansson and Nicole Kidman. This doesn't help The Farewell. At least it did okay at the Golden Globes.

The Irishman, Parasite and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood got an Ensemble Cast nominations while Marriage Story did not, despite Driver Johansson Dern all being major acting contenders. I'd say this hurts Marriage Story and helps Once Upon A Time In Hollywood in this four-way Best Picture race.

Bale and Edgerton nominated for Actor over Banderas and Pryce. Pugh passed over again for Actress. Foxx over Hopkins for Supporting Actor.

[Orser67]

As far as Best Picture goes, the movies that can actually win the award at this point are The Irishman, Parasite, Marriage Story and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, with 1917 being an underdog 5th option and Jojo Rabbit being a long-shot highly unlikely 6th option. There is theoretically a chance for a few movies to go from a 0% chance of winning up to a 5% long-shot chance between now and the Oscars, those movies being Little Women, Joker and The Two Popes. So there are 4 or 5 real contenders and 9 total contenders at this point.

The other movies people mention in regards to Best Picture can only hope for a nomination at best, which is still a big deal in itself. Those movies are Ford V Ferrari, Bombshell, The Farewell, Knives Out, Uncut Gems, A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood, and then again for this category there are 5 or 10 highly unlikely other movies with a 10% chance or less of sneaking in as a suprise nomination.

Out of the 9 actual contenders, I've seen 6, and the one I would recommend most to anybody is Parasite. Totally worth a watch if you get the chance to see it.

I haven't followed Best Picture closely yet, but based on my understanding from previous years I think that you're probably right in saying that there are 5 movies with an actual chance. I would be really surprised, though, if Parasite or 1917 won based on the fact that foreign language films and war movies (respectively) don't seem to win very often. My guess is that it will come down to the Irishman (peak Scorsese is always a contender), Marriage Story (the kind of film that often wins Oscars), and Once Upon a Time (subject matter + Tarantino being due for a win).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD NOMINATIONS.

Akwafina got snubbed for Nyongo and Zhao Shuzhen (as well as Annette Bening and Cathy Bates) didn't get in over Scarlet Johansson and Nicole Kidman. This doesn't help The Farewell. At least it did okay at the Golden Globes.

The Irishman, Parasite and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood got an Ensemble Cast nominations while Marriage Story did not, despite Driver Johansson Dern all being major acting contenders. I'd say this hurts Marriage Story and helps Once Upon A Time In Hollywood in this four-way Best Picture race.

Bale and Edgerton nominated for Actor over Banderas and Pryce. Pugh passed over again for Actress. Foxx over Hopkins for Supporting Actor.

- Banderas was never going to get nominated here. 

- Bale's nomination is a nice surprise.  IDK if it was deserved or not, but either way, he was great in Ford v Ferrari, so I won't complain about him getting some attention. 

- I haven't seen Rocketman, but folks keep recommending it and while I still worry about it being another Bohemian Rhapsody, I may well end up checking it out. 

- The Two Popes missing out completely, however, is a very bad sign for that film's Oscar prospects although it could still score a Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, or Best Adapted Screenplay nomination (although even the former is looking more and more like a heavy lift).  It may well have to content itself with a lone Best Adapted Screenplay nomination (which will likely end up annoying me to no end if the movie turns out to be even half as good as it looks)

- Adam Sandler missing out on SAG and especially Globes nominations is not a good sign for his Best Actor prospects.  What may save him, however, is that folks who love Uncut Gems seem to really love it.  As in "it might get enough 1st choice votes to eeek out a surprise BP nomination" love it.  Then again, critics don't vote for Oscars.  And Adam Sandler has [somehow] made a lot of money for a lot of people over the years.  We'll see what happens.  I suspect he would've gotten nominated were there six SAG slots. 

- Finally, we reach a group where Jojo Rabbit will likely do quite well: the Guilds.  From what I've read, industry types seems to love Jojo Rabbit.  Film critics, not so much   I still think Jojo Rabbit is very much in the thick of the BP contest, although obviously not the frontrunner, but we'll know more with this film once the Oscar nominations are announced. 

- I gotta say, I'm kinda sad that Ray Liotta (Marriage Story) and Shia LaBouf (Honey Boy) aren't getting much recognition for their respective Oscar-caliber performances this year. 

- Parasite [somehow] getting a Best Ensemble nomination means that T'Chenka was probably right.  Parasite may be a strong contender for a BP win after all.  If Bong Joon-Ho starts consistently winning Best Director from non-critics awards groups, watch out!

- Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood did exactly what it needed to here and was pretty clearly the HFPA (Golden Globes) favorite film.  But then, Globes voters don't vote for Oscars. 

- Jojo Rabbit and Parasite did really well here.  We're probably looking at a tossup between Jojo Rabbit, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood, Parasite, and The Irishman.  I absolutely loved Marriage Story (honestly, it's a perfect movie; I don't even know what nitpick I could make much less actual substantive criticism) and expect it to both win some major awards and get tons of nominations, but for some reason I can't shake the feeling that it's a bit of a longshot to take home the big prize.  We'll see what happens on nomination day.  A best director nomination for Noah Baumbach would be a really good sign for its chances.

- Clearly, the industry is not responding to Little Women at all though.  The Globes were one thing, but that SAG shutout...yikes.  I'm not exactly complaining, mind you, but still...you'd think actors would be this film's base.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I haven't followed Best Picture closely yet, but based on my understanding from previous years I think that you're probably right in saying that there are 5 movies with an actual chance. I would be really surprised, though, if Parasite or 1917 won based on the fact that foreign language films and war movies (respectively) don't seem to win very often. My guess is that it will come down to the Irishman (peak Scorsese is always a contender), Marriage Story (the kind of film that often wins Oscars), and Once Upon a Time (subject matter + Tarantino being due for a win).

Tarantino has two Oscars (one more than Scorsese) and even his fans admit that OUATIH is his weakest film.

[T'Chenka]

I haven't followed Best Picture closely yet, but based on my understanding from previous years I think that you're probably right in saying that there are 5 movies with an actual chance. I would be really surprised, though, if Parasite or 1917 won based on the fact that foreign language films and war movies (respectively) don't seem to win very often. My guess is that it will come down to the Irishman (peak Scorsese is always a contender), Marriage Story (the kind of film that often wins Oscars), and Once Upon a Time (subject matter + Tarantino being due for a win).

Tarantino has two Oscars (one more than Scorsese) and even his fans admit that OUATIH is his weakest film.

Many fans think it's his best film...

[Progressive Pessimist]

I finally saw 'Marriage Story' in its entirety. It really was superb.

It kind of made me depressed though because it really reminded me of my parents' divorce; which became final just this year, right down to one of my parents wanting to settle the divorce outside of using lawyers, and the other going through with getting a lawyer anyway. Thankfully, as messy as it was, their's wasn't as complicated as Charlie and Nicole's. There was no custody issue, for one thing. And unlike the kid in this movie, I took, and am still taking, my parents' divorce very poorly. And that's as an adult too!

 I guess that's one of the movie's strengths though-how relatable it is. It was apparently inspired by Noah Baumbach's own divorce, and as such it really is a story that can resonate with anyone who has been through family issues like this. Our main characters are very realistic, neither of them are perfect but neither of them are bad people either. They're just people. That goes for the very nuanced situations in the divorce too. There will always be awkwardness, there will always be heartbreak, there will always be humor. All of that was here in spades.

 Unlike another Baumbach film, 'The Squid and the Whale,' which was supposedly inspired by his parents' divorce, you don't really root for one person over the other (in that film, the dad ends up being much less sympathetic than the mom). By that notion this film is superior to that one, which I also liked though. There is the added benefit of this film not having the creepy-ass younger brother character from 'The Squid and the Whale,' I will say. Baumbach seems to really like to focus on themes of family conflict in his films, and he's great at portraying them. That even goes for 'The Meyerowitz Stories,' which is another of his films that I would recommend.

I would agree with T'Chenka that it is like a better, updated 'Kramer vs. Kramer.' That's not to take anything away from that movie, it was ahead of its time, and deserves its place as a classic. It's just that 'Marriage Story' is better at balancing its focus on both the dad and mom, and is more contemporary and potentially even timeless.

Scarlett Johansson is an actress who I always thought was great, but never really blew me away with one of her performances until this one! This is her best performance ever. Same with Adam Driver. Both are great in different ways though-Johansson gets a lot of individual moments where she shines, but Driver shines in his interactions with other characters. Needless to say the explosive scene at the apartment features both of those strengths coming together. That entire scene almost felt like it could be its own excellent one act play. Both really ought to be nominated for whatever awards possible.

The supporting characters are all great too. Especially all of the lawyers. Alan Alda was just adorable and Laura Dern was extremely charismatic. I was very surprised to see Ray Liotta make an appearance. I haven't seen him in a recent movie in awhile, and it was nice to see him not playing him typecast as the usual cop or gangster for once.

So yeah, this is definitely one of the best films of the year, and the best that I have seen so far (if we don't count 'Invader Zim: Enter the Florpus'). I found few to no flaws with it. I mean okay, maybe the Steven Sondheim songs could have been cut out, but whatever. They didn't bother me or disrupt the film's pacing too much.

And one last thing: did anyone else think that the boy who played Henry was a dead-ringer for the actor who played Danny Torrance in 'The Shining?' He looked exactly like him! It was almost off-putting! I kept expecting him to talk to his finger.

Also Bob Fossil from 'The Mighty Boosh' playing the judge was kind of distracting.

[Orser67]

I haven't followed Best Picture closely yet, but based on my understanding from previous years I think that you're probably right in saying that there are 5 movies with an actual chance. I would be really surprised, though, if Parasite or 1917 won based on the fact that foreign language films and war movies (respectively) don't seem to win very often. My guess is that it will come down to the Irishman (peak Scorsese is always a contender), Marriage Story (the kind of film that often wins Oscars), and Once Upon a Time (subject matter + Tarantino being due for a win).

Tarantino has two Oscars (one more than Scorsese) and even his fans admit that OUATIH is his weakest film.

Yeah, I should have been more specific. He's won two Oscars, but they were both for screenwriting. He's never won Best Director (despite two nominations) and a Tarantino film has never won Best Picture (despite three nominations).

[T'Chenka]

As far as Best Picture goes, the movies that can actually win the award at this point are The Irishman, Parasite, Marriage Story and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, with 1917 being an underdog 5th option and Jojo Rabbit being a long-shot highly unlikely 6th option. There is theoretically a chance for a few movies to go from a 0% chance of winning up to a 5% long-shot chance between now and the Oscars, those movies being Little Women, Joker and The Two Popes. So there are 4 or 5 real contenders and 9 total contenders at this point.

The other movies people mention in regards to Best Picture can only hope for a nomination at best, which is still a big deal in itself. Those movies are Ford V Ferrari, Bombshell, The Farewell, Knives Out, Uncut Gems, A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood, and then again for this category there are 5 or 10 highly unlikely other movies with a 10% chance or less of sneaking in as a suprise nomination.

Out of the 9 actual contenders, I've seen 6, and the one I would recommend most to anybody is Parasite. Totally worth a watch if you get the chance to see it.

I haven't followed Best Picture closely yet, but based on my understanding from previous years I think that you're probably right in saying that there are 5 movies with an actual chance. I would be really surprised, though, if Parasite or 1917 won based on the fact that foreign language films and war movies (respectively) don't seem to win very often. My guess is that it will come down to the Irishman (peak Scorsese is always a contender), Marriage Story (the kind of film that often wins Oscars), and Once Upon a Time (subject matter + Tarantino being due for a win).

This is probably my bias, but I think Parasite might win. Roma almost won last year, which was foreign and Netflix and slow and artsy, four potential downfalls. Parasite is foreign, but not only is it NOT Netflix, but it's actually competing against Netflix. It's also not slow and not "artsy" in the way that might turn some people off, even though it's extremely well made. People who want to see justice for Roma, people that don't respect Netflix and people who dislike slow artsy stuff might all come out this year for Parasite.

Also keep in mind that The Irishman Once Upon A Time In Hollywood are long films that some might feel are slow, and Marriage Story is a mildly artsy drama. If you can get past the foreign language aspect, Parasite is arguably the most accessible (mainstream friendly) film, the fastest-paced and best film overall out of the top 4 of Irishman, Marriage Story, Hollywood, Parasite. I think it's also (slightly) better than Roma or ay least equal, and much more accessible.

Hollywood is full of liberals trying to be progressive and inclusive, as we all know. What better time to show it than to choose an Asian culture film? I just this second realizef how incredibly white Irishman, Marriage Story and Hollywood are. Don't Hollywood libs like to pat themselves on the back for supporting minorities? Here's their chance.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I haven't followed Best Picture closely yet, but based on my understanding from previous years I think that you're probably right in saying that there are 5 movies with an actual chance. I would be really surprised, though, if Parasite or 1917 won based on the fact that foreign language films and war movies (respectively) don't seem to win very often. My guess is that it will come down to the Irishman (peak Scorsese is always a contender), Marriage Story (the kind of film that often wins Oscars), and Once Upon a Time (subject matter + Tarantino being due for a win).

Tarantino has two Oscars (one more than Scorsese) and even his fans admit that OUATIH is his weakest film.

Many fans think it's his best film...

Honestly, I haven't heard/read anyone say that. There are many people who love it but even they don't think it's his best effort.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

As far as Best Picture goes, the movies that can actually win the award at this point are The Irishman, Parasite, Marriage Story and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, with 1917 being an underdog 5th option and Jojo Rabbit being a long-shot highly unlikely 6th option. There is theoretically a chance for a few movies to go from a 0% chance of winning up to a 5% long-shot chance between now and the Oscars, those movies being Little Women, Joker and The Two Popes. So there are 4 or 5 real contenders and 9 total contenders at this point.

The other movies people mention in regards to Best Picture can only hope for a nomination at best, which is still a big deal in itself. Those movies are Ford V Ferrari, Bombshell, The Farewell, Knives Out, Uncut Gems, A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood, and then again for this category there are 5 or 10 highly unlikely other movies with a 10% chance or less of sneaking in as a suprise nomination.

Out of the 9 actual contenders, I've seen 6, and the one I would recommend most to anybody is Parasite. Totally worth a watch if you get the chance to see it.

I haven't followed Best Picture closely yet, but based on my understanding from previous years I think that you're probably right in saying that there are 5 movies with an actual chance. I would be really surprised, though, if Parasite or 1917 won based on the fact that foreign language films and war movies (respectively) don't seem to win very often. My guess is that it will come down to the Irishman (peak Scorsese is always a contender), Marriage Story (the kind of film that often wins Oscars), and Once Upon a Time (subject matter + Tarantino being due for a win).

This is probably my bias, but I think Parasite might win. Roma almost won last year, which was foreign and Netflix and slow and artsy, four potential downfalls. Parasite is foreign, but not only is it NOT Netflix, but it's actually competing against Netflix. It's also not slow and not "artsy" in the way that might turn some people off, even though it's extremely well made. People who want to see justice for Roma, people that don't respect Netflix and people who dislike slow artsy stuff might all come out this year for Parasite.

Also keep in mind that The Irishman Once Upon A Time In Hollywood are long films that some might feel are slow, and Marriage Story is a mildly artsy drama. If you can get past the foreign language aspect, Parasite is arguably the most accessible (mainstream friendly) film, the fastest-paced and best film overall out of the top 4 of Irishman, Marriage Story, Hollywood, Parasite. I think it's also (slightly) better than Roma or ay least equal, and much more accessible.

Hollywood is full of liberals trying to be progressive and inclusive, as we all know. What better time to show it than to choose an Asian culture film? I just this second realizef how incredibly white Irishman, Marriage Story and Hollywood are. Don't Hollywood libs like to pat themselves on the back for supporting minorities? Here's their chance.

The thing with Roma that I think hurt it more than anything tbh is that it (at least imo) does not play well on the TV.  Like, it's a slow film and I come at it as someone who didn't see what all the hubbub was about (aside from the Cinematography which totally deserved an Oscar), but I feel like the issues I had with the film were almost all far more pronounced b/c I saw it on TV rather than in a theater.  OTOH, like Green Book last year, all five of this year's frontrunners will play very well on screener (especially The Irishman since you can take breaks which is probably the best way to watch it). 

To your point in the last paragraph, I mean, they do like to pat themselves on the back for supporting minorities in superficial ways.  I'm sure the industry's immediate narrative if Parasite would be some cringey-as-hell version of "We did it!  We just struck a huge blow against Trump's xenophobic policies by giving an award to an Asian people movie; no need for applause, this sort of enlightenment just comes naturally."

At the same time, though, they also really like movies about Hollywood and they really like movies set during WWII.

[T'Chenka]

9 Academy Awards Short-Lists Revealed
9 of the 16 "below the line" (minor) categories now have short-lists.
0 of the 8 "above the line" (major) categories have short-lists out.


BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Parasite (South Korea)
Pain & Glory (Spain)
Les Miserables (France)
Atlantics (Senegal) (netflix)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Beanpole (Russua)
Corpus Christi (Poland)
The Painted Bird (Czech Republic)
Those Who Remained (Hungary)
Truth And Justice (Estonia)
SNUBS - Monos (Colombia) is a big snub, should have made the short-list.
SNUBS - France snubbed Portrait Of A Lady On Fire by submitting Les Miserables instead.
SNUBS - And Then We Danced (Sweden)
SNUBS - The Invisible Life Of Euridice Gusmao (Brazil)


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Factory (netflix)
Apollo 11
One Child Nation
The Cave
For Sama
Honeyland
Maiden
The Biggest Little Farm
Knock Down The House (netflix)
The Great Hack (netflix)
The Edge Of Democracy
Aquarela
Midnight Family
Advocate
The Apollo
SNUBS - Varda By Agnes
SNUBS - I thought "Hail Satan?" would make the short-list.


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Irishman
1917
The Lion King
Cats
Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker
Gemini Man
Avengers: Endgame
Alita: Battle Angel
Captain Marvel
Terminator: Dark Fate
SNUBS - Ad Astra is a MASSIVE snub. WOW. Unbelievable.
SNUBS - Ford V Ferrari
SNUBS - The Aeronauts
SNUBS - Spider-Man: Far From Home


BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Bombshell
Joker
Dolemite Is My Name
Judy
Little Women
Downton Abbey
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Rocketman
Maleficent: Mistress Of Evil
1917
SNUBS - Nothing comes to mind.


MUSIC - BEST SCORE
Marriage Story
Joker
1917
Little Women
Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker
Motherless Brooklyn
Us
Jojo Rabbit
Avengers: Endgame
Ford V Ferrari
The Farewell
Pain & Glory
Bombshell
Frozen II
The King
SNUBS - Parasite
SNUBS - Uncut Gems
SNUBS - Waves


MUSIC - BEST SONG
Harriet - "Stand Up"
Frozen II - "Into The Unknown"
Rocketman - "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again"
The Lion King - "Spirit"
Aladdin - "Speechless"
Wild Rose - "Glasgow"
Breakthrough - "I'm Standing With You"
Motherless Brooklyn - "Daily Battles"
Toy Story 4 - "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away
The LEGO Movie 2 - "Catchy Song"
The Lion King - "Never Too Late"
Parasite - "A Glass Of Soju"
The Black Godfather - "Letter To My Godfather"
The Bronx USA - "Da Bronx"
Joni Morrison: The Pieces That I Am - "High Above The Water"
SNUBS - A pretty big snub would be Cats - "Beautiful Ghosts"


LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
I don't really care about the 3 short film categories. Information can be found below.
https://oscars.org/oscars/92nd-oscars-shortlists


ANIMATED SHORT FILM
I don't really care about the 3 short film categories. Information can be found below.
https://oscars.org/oscars/92nd-oscars-shortlists


DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
I don't really care about the 3 short film categories. Information can be found below.
https://oscars.org/oscars/92nd-oscars-shortlists

[SingingAnalyst]

Favorite films: Titanic (1997), Apollo 13 (1995)
Best character development ever: Searching for Bobby Fischer (1993). Everything, down to every little detail, was spot-on.

[T'Chenka]

The official trailer for Tenet came out today, Christopher Nolan's new film that comes out in July, starring John David Washington. What an absolute MIND-F__K.

If you're the kind of person that watches movie trailers, this is a must-watch trailer.  The trailer doesn't give away exactly what's going on, but you get a bit of an idea. This is Inception-level mind-f__kery going on here. Based on that trailer, this has the potential to be the best film of 2020. Not sure on how likely it is to reach that potential, but the potential is there IMO. Future classic film? Let the hype begin.

The cast includes Robert Pattinson, Elizabeth Debecki. Kenneth Branagh, Michael Caine, Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Himesh Patel. Ludwig Goransson does the score, which is in the trailer. He won an Oscar for Best Original Score for Black Panther.

TENET Official Trailer
https://youtu.be/LdOM0x0XDMo