Oppenheimer wins 7 Oscars (Best Picture) (film & awards)
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  Oppenheimer wins 7 Oscars (Best Picture) (film & awards)
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #400 on: December 13, 2023, 12:44:38 AM »


That's probably what the filmmakers were trying to do. Mission accomplished.
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #401 on: January 07, 2024, 08:17:31 AM »

Golden Globes awards are tonight.

Expecting Oppenheimer to win Best Picture Drama. Would not be totally shocked to see Killers Of The Flower Moon win instead though.

Really hoping that Poor Things wins Best Picture Comedy/Musical, but I'm expecting Barbie to win.

Emma Stone (Poor Things) is the favourite to win Actress Comedy/Musical, and she REALLY deserves it. Will be upset if they give it to Margot Robbie (Barbie) instead.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #402 on: January 07, 2024, 08:34:36 AM »

I finally saw Killers of the Flower Moon and was very disappointed. There was little drama, little suspense, little tension because you knew from the start who was going to do what. So it’s just a series of cold killings of characters you are barely introduced to and don’t care about shown over and over again to the point you become numb to it. All the while not really understanding Leo’s motivation at all, he just seemed like a total idiot, and De Niro seemed like a cartoon villain. Also Lily Gladstone’s performance has to be the most overrated of all-time. THIS is getting Oscar buzz? She just stares blankly off into space and lies in bed for most of the movie. Her few lines are monotone and emotionless. I never got any sense of romance between her and Leo, I was just told they were supposed to have a connection I guess.

I was shocked to see something so… bad from Scorsese. It’s like he tried to make a Western but couldn’t help himself from making it a gangster/mob movie like Goodfellas, and it just didn’t work for me. Also the Indians are basically props while the story is told from the perspective of the bad guys; how is this getting praise for giving voices to marginalized people or whatever again? It’s just another Scorsese/DiCaprio/De Niro gangster movie. Yes I know it’s a true story but that doesn’t mean you have to tell it like this. I would have preferred to see it from the perspective of the early FBI investigators uncovering what happened, would have been more engaging probably.

Anyway, Oppenheimer was MUCH better. Hell, I think I even enjoyed Barbie more! Now that’s a surprise.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #403 on: January 07, 2024, 09:51:00 AM »

Barbenheimer will win big. Besides the phenomenon online of the duo-release,  they were the only 2 “original” adult films (not sequels or shared universe) that managed to make HUGE box office combined with major critical acclaim.

Which is what Hollywood lacks right now, so they will try to reward those. Barbie wins Comedy/Musical and Oppenheimer wins Drama. Both of those two will also be big at the Oscars.

My favorite film from 2023 was actually Ari Aster’s “Beau is Afraid” though.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #404 on: January 07, 2024, 10:26:34 AM »

Golden Globe winners predictions:

FILM - DRAMA
Winner: Oppenheimer
Alternative: Killers of the Flower Moon

FILM - COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Winner: Barbie
Alternative: Poor Things

FILM - NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
Winner: Anatomy of a Fall
Alternative: The Zone of Interest

FILM - ANIMATION
Winner: Spider-Man: Across the Spiderverse
Alternative: The Boy and the Heron

DIRECTOR
Winner: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Alternative: Greta Gerwig, Barbie

ACTOR - DRAMA
Winner: Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Alternative: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

ACTOR - COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Winner: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Alternative: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

ACTRESS - DRAMA
Winner: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Alternative: None, maybe Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall in a distant 2nd.

ACTRESS - COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Winner: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Alternative: Margot Robbie, Barbie

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Winner: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Alternative: Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Alternative: Julianne Moore, May December

SCREENPLAY
Winner: Barbie
Alternative: Oppenheimer

ORIGINAL SCORE
Winner: Oppenheimer
Alternative: Killers of the Flower Moon

ORIGINAL SONG
Winner: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Alternative: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

CINEMATIC AND BOX OFFICE ACHIEVEMENT
Winner: Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Alternative: Barbie


TOTAL AWARDS PREDICTION PER FILM:

1. Barbie - 4 awards (Film - Comedy/Musical + Screenplay + Supporting Actor + Song)
2. Oppenheimer - 3 awards (Film - Drama + Director + Score)
3. The Holdovers - 2 awards (Actor - Comedy/Musical + Supporting Actress)
4. Poor Things - 1 award (Actress - Comedy/Musical)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon - 1 award (Actress - Drama)
6. Maestro - 1 award (Actor - Drama)
7. Anatomy of a Fall - 1 award (Film - Not in the English Language)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spiderverse - 1 award (Film - Animation)
9. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour - 1 award (Cinematic and Box Office Achievement)
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John Dule
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« Reply #405 on: January 07, 2024, 03:21:40 PM »

I finally saw Killers of the Flower Moon and was very disappointed. There was little drama, little suspense, little tension because you knew from the start who was going to do what. So it’s just a series of cold killings of characters you are barely introduced to and don’t care about shown over and over again to the point you become numb to it. All the while not really understanding Leo’s motivation at all, he just seemed like a total idiot, and De Niro seemed like a cartoon villain. Also Lily Gladstone’s performance has to be the most overrated of all-time. THIS is getting Oscar buzz? She just stares blankly off into space and lies in bed for most of the movie. Her few lines are monotone and emotionless. I never got any sense of romance between her and Leo, I was just told they were supposed to have a connection I guess.

I was shocked to see something so… bad from Scorsese. It’s like he tried to make a Western but couldn’t help himself from making it a gangster/mob movie like Goodfellas, and it just didn’t work for me. Also the Indians are basically props while the story is told from the perspective of the bad guys; how is this getting praise for giving voices to marginalized people or whatever again? It’s just another Scorsese/DiCaprio/De Niro gangster movie. Yes I know it’s a true story but that doesn’t mean you have to tell it like this. I would have preferred to see it from the perspective of the early FBI investigators uncovering what happened, would have been more engaging probably.

Anyway, Oppenheimer was MUCH better. Hell, I think I even enjoyed Barbie more! Now that’s a surprise.

Lmao, Oppenheimer was not better than KOTFM by any stretch of the imagination. Oppenheimer was ponderous and overblown; every single second of the movie has an overbearing, self-important musical score designed to telegraph just how important the events are. The whole point of KOTFM is that the scheme is discussed as if it’s nothing out of the ordinary. This shows how pliable, manipulable people like DiCaprio’s character can be roped into committing evil acts. The movie is about the banality of evil, which is why it chooses subtlety— not something a Nolan fan could understand.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #406 on: January 07, 2024, 03:25:47 PM »
« Edited: January 07, 2024, 03:33:29 PM by Alben Barkley »

I finally saw Killers of the Flower Moon and was very disappointed. There was little drama, little suspense, little tension because you knew from the start who was going to do what. So it’s just a series of cold killings of characters you are barely introduced to and don’t care about shown over and over again to the point you become numb to it. All the while not really understanding Leo’s motivation at all, he just seemed like a total idiot, and De Niro seemed like a cartoon villain. Also Lily Gladstone’s performance has to be the most overrated of all-time. THIS is getting Oscar buzz? She just stares blankly off into space and lies in bed for most of the movie. Her few lines are monotone and emotionless. I never got any sense of romance between her and Leo, I was just told they were supposed to have a connection I guess.

I was shocked to see something so… bad from Scorsese. It’s like he tried to make a Western but couldn’t help himself from making it a gangster/mob movie like Goodfellas, and it just didn’t work for me. Also the Indians are basically props while the story is told from the perspective of the bad guys; how is this getting praise for giving voices to marginalized people or whatever again? It’s just another Scorsese/DiCaprio/De Niro gangster movie. Yes I know it’s a true story but that doesn’t mean you have to tell it like this. I would have preferred to see it from the perspective of the early FBI investigators uncovering what happened, would have been more engaging probably.

Anyway, Oppenheimer was MUCH better. Hell, I think I even enjoyed Barbie more! Now that’s a surprise.

Lmao, Oppenheimer was not better than KOTFM by any stretch of the imagination. Oppenheimer was ponderous and overblown; every single second of the movie has an overbearing, self-important musical score designed to telegraph just how important the events are. The whole point of KOTFM is that the scheme is discussed as if it’s nothing out of the ordinary. This shows how pliable, manipulable people like DiCaprio’s character can be roped into committing evil acts. The movie is about the banality of evil, which is why it chooses subtlety— not something a Nolan fan could understand.

That may have been "the point" but if so I got "the point" very early on and then it just started feeling repetitive. Just didn't make for a very entertaining movie to watch for 3 and a half hours, unlike some of Scorsese's other works which hit on similar themes but do so in a more engrossing way.

Just my opinion man, you know I respect yours so why not respect mine? Sure Nolan is a bit bombastic, but so was Wagner. Doesn't mean you can't create great art just like more subtle works can be.
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nicholas.slaydon
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« Reply #407 on: January 07, 2024, 06:23:08 PM »

Predictions:

Best Film Drama:
Oppenheimer
2nd place: Anatomy of a Fall

Best Film Drama Actress:
Sandra Huller
2nd Place: Lily Gladstone

Best Film Drama Actor:
Cillian Murphey
2nd Place: Andrew Scott

Best Film Comedy/Musical:
Barbie
2nd Place: Poor Things

Best Film Comedy/Musical Actress:
Margot Robbie
2nd Place: Emma Stone

Best Film Comedy/Musical Actor:
Paul Giamatti
2nd Place: Jeffery Wright

Best Film Supporting Actress:
Da'Vine Joy Randolph
2nd Place: Danielle Brooks

Best Film Supporting Actor:
Charles Melton
2nd Place: Robert Downey Jr

Best Film Director:
Christopher Nolan
2nd Place: Greta Gerwig

Best Film Screenplay:
Anatomy of a Fall
2nd Place: Past Lives

Best Animated Feature:
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2nd Place: The Boy and the Heron

Best Non-English Film:
Anatomy of a Fall
2nd Place: Past Lives

Best Score: Oppenheimer
2nd Place: Poor Things

Best Song:
"What Was I Made For"- Barbie
2nd Place: "I'm Just Ken" Barbie

Cinematic and Box Office Achievement:
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
2nd Place: Barbie

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John Dule
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« Reply #408 on: January 07, 2024, 08:00:12 PM »

I finally saw Killers of the Flower Moon and was very disappointed. There was little drama, little suspense, little tension because you knew from the start who was going to do what. So it’s just a series of cold killings of characters you are barely introduced to and don’t care about shown over and over again to the point you become numb to it. All the while not really understanding Leo’s motivation at all, he just seemed like a total idiot, and De Niro seemed like a cartoon villain. Also Lily Gladstone’s performance has to be the most overrated of all-time. THIS is getting Oscar buzz? She just stares blankly off into space and lies in bed for most of the movie. Her few lines are monotone and emotionless. I never got any sense of romance between her and Leo, I was just told they were supposed to have a connection I guess.

I was shocked to see something so… bad from Scorsese. It’s like he tried to make a Western but couldn’t help himself from making it a gangster/mob movie like Goodfellas, and it just didn’t work for me. Also the Indians are basically props while the story is told from the perspective of the bad guys; how is this getting praise for giving voices to marginalized people or whatever again? It’s just another Scorsese/DiCaprio/De Niro gangster movie. Yes I know it’s a true story but that doesn’t mean you have to tell it like this. I would have preferred to see it from the perspective of the early FBI investigators uncovering what happened, would have been more engaging probably.

Anyway, Oppenheimer was MUCH better. Hell, I think I even enjoyed Barbie more! Now that’s a surprise.

Lmao, Oppenheimer was not better than KOTFM by any stretch of the imagination. Oppenheimer was ponderous and overblown; every single second of the movie has an overbearing, self-important musical score designed to telegraph just how important the events are. The whole point of KOTFM is that the scheme is discussed as if it’s nothing out of the ordinary. This shows how pliable, manipulable people like DiCaprio’s character can be roped into committing evil acts. The movie is about the banality of evil, which is why it chooses subtlety— not something a Nolan fan could understand.

That may have been "the point" but if so I got "the point" very early on and then it just started feeling repetitive. Just didn't make for a very entertaining movie to watch for 3 and a half hours, unlike some of Scorsese's other works which hit on similar themes but do so in a more engrossing way.

Just my opinion man, you know I respect yours so why not respect mine? Sure Nolan is a bit bombastic, but so was Wagner. Doesn't mean you can't create great art just like more subtle works can be.

Literally none of Scorsese's other films hit on this theme aside from maybe The Irishman. The whole point is that his past films have always glorified his criminal protagonists to some degree-- Travis Bickle and Jordan Belfort are "literally me" heroes to mentally ill teenage boys, and even Rupert Pupkin is somewhat admirable for his commitment to achieving his goal. KOTFM is instead about a group of people with no admirable traits. No one will quote or imitate them. Nobody will relate to them as "cool." In this sense the movie is a much greater achievement than his past crime thrillers, because it succeeds in unequivocally denouncing its own characters. This is very difficult for a movie to do, given that almost anything that happens on the screen is inevitably glorified to some degree.

Why don't I respect your opinion? Simple: I like to start drama and cause arguments about movies. This is because I'm an asshole.
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #409 on: January 08, 2024, 04:38:37 AM »

Poor Things won Best Picture (Comedy/Musical) over Barbie!

Was not expecting that at all, but I'm very pleasantly surprised. Poor Things is an amazing movie. People are sleeping on it.
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #410 on: January 08, 2024, 04:42:26 AM »

SAG (Screen Actors' Guild) and DGA (Directors' Guild of America) will announce their nominations on Wednesday. PGA (Producers' Guild of America) will announce their nominations on Friday.

The ceremony for the Critics Choice Awards will take place on Sunday (Jan 14)

Thursday January 18: the BAFTA nominations will be announced.

Tuesday January 23: the Academy Awards (Oscars) nominations will be announced.
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MABA 2020
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« Reply #411 on: January 08, 2024, 01:19:11 PM »

Glad to see Oppenheimer and Poor Things win, I haven't seen it yet but I'm very excited to see it when it's released.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #412 on: January 08, 2024, 03:25:12 PM »

I didn't watch the Golden Globes, but my biggest takeaway is that Billie Eilish could pass for Cillian Murphy's daughter.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #413 on: January 08, 2024, 07:21:53 PM »

No chance Oppenheimer loses.
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #414 on: January 08, 2024, 07:54:11 PM »
« Edited: January 08, 2024, 08:04:31 PM by T'Chenka »


Oppenheimer is going to have a strong package, for sure.

Director + probably 1 or 2 of Actor and or Supporting Actor + also win some tech awards

For another movie to beat that, it's going to AT LEAST need Screenplay, and likely it would need Actress or Supporting Actress, or even better than that, Actor (which means Cillian Murphy loses) or Supporting Actor (which means Robert Downie Jr loses).

Movies we could imagine could do that right now...

Barbie - Adapted Screenplay + Supporting Actor (Ryan Gosling)
Poor Things - Adapted Screenplay + Actress (Emma Stone)
The Holdovers - Original Screenplay + Supporting Actress (Da'Vine Joy Randolph)


Also possible but not particularly likely...
Killers Of The Flower Moon - Adapted Screenplay + Actress (Lily Gladstone)
American Fiction - Adapted Screenplay + Actor (Jeffrey Wright)


Flower Moon's weak point is how unlikely it is to win Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction's weak point is how unlikely it is for Jeffrey Wright to win Actor


Maestro could win Actor, but I don't see it winning Screenplay or stealing Director away from Oppenheimer.

Past Lives or Anatomy Of A Fall could win Original Screenplay, but they won't win any acting awards.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #415 on: January 08, 2024, 08:03:03 PM »


Oppenheimer is going to have a strong package, for sure.

Director + probably 1 or 2 of Actor and or Supporting Actor + also win some tech awards

For another movie to beat that, it's going to AT LEAST need Screenplay, and likely it would need Actress or Supporting Actress, or even better than that, Actor (which means Cillian Murphy loses) or Supporting Actor (which means Robert Downie Jr loses).

Movies we could imagine could do that right now...

Barbie - Adapted Screenplay + Supporting Actor (Ryan Gosling)
Poor Things - Adapted Screenplay + Actress (Emma Stone)
The Holdovers - Original Screenplay + Supporting Actress (Da'Vine Joy Randolph)
Killers Of The Flower Moon - Adapted Screenplay + Actress (Lily Gladstone)

Also possible but not particularly likely...
American Fiction - Adapted Screenplay + Actor (Jeffrey Wright)

Maestro could win Actor, but I don't see it winning Screenplay or stealing Director away from Oppenheimer.

Past Lives or Anatomy Of A Fall could win Original Screenplay, but they won't win any acting awards.

Flower Moon could win Actor or Director
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #416 on: January 08, 2024, 08:09:45 PM »


Oppenheimer is 90% or higher chance to win Director. If it somehow loses, I THINK Flower Moon would be the second in line to win, but honestly that's not 100% clear at this point. There's some world out there where Oppenheimer loses against all odds and the movie that wins isn't Flower Moon.

In terms of Actor... Cillian Murphy, Bradley Cooper and Paul Giamatti are the three guys fighting to win this award. Leonardo DiCaprio and Jeffrey Wright are both likely to be nominated, but not with a good chance to win.

Flower Moon's best chances to win a (big, non-tech) Oscar is Actress, by far.

Adapted Screenplay is probably it's second best chance, but it's odds are not good.

Director would be third best chance.

Actor and Supporting Actor are very tiny chances to win. But good chance to get nominated.


All of this is based on what internet nerds are predicting, past precedents, etc. Take it with a grain of salt if you want. Sadly, I follow this kind of closely, so I'm confident in all of this. Things CAN change (pay attention to: DGA PGA Critics Choice SAG and BAFTA) but as of right now, it looks like this IMO.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #417 on: January 08, 2024, 08:15:14 PM »


Oppenheimer is 90% or higher chance to win Director. If it somehow loses, I THINK Flower Moon would be the second in line to win, but honestly that's not 100% clear at this point. There's some world out there where Oppenheimer loses against all odds and the movie that wins isn't Flower Moon.

In terms of Actor... Cillian Murphy, Bradley Cooper and Paul Giamatti are the three guys fighting to win this award. Leonardo DiCaprio and Jeffrey Wright are both likely to be nominated, but not with a good chance to win.

Flower Moon's best chances to win a (big, non-tech) Oscar is Actress, by far.

Adapted Screenplay is probably it's second best chance, but it's odds are not good.

Director would be third best chance.

Actor and Supporting Actor are very tiny chances to win. But good chance to get nominated.


All of this is based on what internet nerds are predicting, past precedents, etc. Take it with a grain of salt if you want. Sadly, I follow this kind of closely, so I'm confident in all of this. Things CAN change (pay attention to: DGA PGA Critics Choice SAG and BAFTA) but as of right now, it looks like this IMO.

Not even sure Cooper will get nominated for Best Actor.  He was decidedly meh and Maestro was a pretty bad movie.
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GoTfan
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« Reply #418 on: January 09, 2024, 10:22:23 AM »

I finally saw Killers of the Flower Moon and was very disappointed. There was little drama, little suspense, little tension because you knew from the start who was going to do what. So it’s just a series of cold killings of characters you are barely introduced to and don’t care about shown over and over again to the point you become numb to it. All the while not really understanding Leo’s motivation at all, he just seemed like a total idiot, and De Niro seemed like a cartoon villain. Also Lily Gladstone’s performance has to be the most overrated of all-time. THIS is getting Oscar buzz? She just stares blankly off into space and lies in bed for most of the movie. Her few lines are monotone and emotionless. I never got any sense of romance between her and Leo, I was just told they were supposed to have a connection I guess.

I was shocked to see something so… bad from Scorsese. It’s like he tried to make a Western but couldn’t help himself from making it a gangster/mob movie like Goodfellas, and it just didn’t work for me. Also the Indians are basically props while the story is told from the perspective of the bad guys; how is this getting praise for giving voices to marginalized people or whatever again? It’s just another Scorsese/DiCaprio/De Niro gangster movie. Yes I know it’s a true story but that doesn’t mean you have to tell it like this. I would have preferred to see it from the perspective of the early FBI investigators uncovering what happened, would have been more engaging probably.

Anyway, Oppenheimer was MUCH better. Hell, I think I even enjoyed Barbie more! Now that’s a surprise.

Lmao, Oppenheimer was not better than KOTFM by any stretch of the imagination. Oppenheimer was ponderous and overblown; every single second of the movie has an overbearing, self-important musical score designed to telegraph just how important the events are. The whole point of KOTFM is that the scheme is discussed as if it’s nothing out of the ordinary. This shows how pliable, manipulable people like DiCaprio’s character can be roped into committing evil acts. The movie is about the banality of evil, which is why it chooses subtlety— not something a Nolan fan could understand.

That may have been "the point" but if so I got "the point" very early on and then it just started feeling repetitive. Just didn't make for a very entertaining movie to watch for 3 and a half hours, unlike some of Scorsese's other works which hit on similar themes but do so in a more engrossing way.

Just my opinion man, you know I respect yours so why not respect mine? Sure Nolan is a bit bombastic, but so was Wagner. Doesn't mean you can't create great art just like more subtle works can be.

Literally none of Scorsese's other films hit on this theme aside from maybe The Irishman. The whole point is that his past films have always glorified his criminal protagonists to some degree-- Travis Bickle and Jordan Belfort are "literally me" heroes to mentally ill teenage boys, and even Rupert Pupkin is somewhat admirable for his commitment to achieving his goal. KOTFM is instead about a group of people with no admirable traits. No one will quote or imitate them. Nobody will relate to them as "cool." In this sense the movie is a much greater achievement than his past crime thrillers, because it succeeds in unequivocally denouncing its own characters. This is very difficult for a movie to do, given that almost anything that happens on the screen is inevitably glorified to some degree.

Why don't I respect your opinion? Simple: I like to start drama and cause arguments about movies. This is because I'm an asshole.

I think both are excellent films in their own right.  Oppenheimer succeeded at what it wanted to be, so did KOTFM. Personally they're two of the best films I've seen in the last fifteen years.

I do happen to agree with the point about Scorsese dropping the hammer on the whole idea that the mob is a good way to live in his more recent films, but there is an argument if it's too little, too late now. I'll let that be decided by people more intelligent than me.
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Sestak
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« Reply #419 on: January 09, 2024, 03:22:28 PM »


Oppenheimer is 90% or higher chance to win Director. If it somehow loses, I THINK Flower Moon would be the second in line to win, but honestly that's not 100% clear at this point. There's some world out there where Oppenheimer loses against all odds and the movie that wins isn't Flower Moon.

In terms of Actor... Cillian Murphy, Bradley Cooper and Paul Giamatti are the three guys fighting to win this award. Leonardo DiCaprio and Jeffrey Wright are both likely to be nominated, but not with a good chance to win.

Flower Moon's best chances to win a (big, non-tech) Oscar is Actress, by far.

Adapted Screenplay is probably it's second best chance, but it's odds are not good.

Director would be third best chance.

Actor and Supporting Actor are very tiny chances to win. But good chance to get nominated.


All of this is based on what internet nerds are predicting, past precedents, etc. Take it with a grain of salt if you want. Sadly, I follow this kind of closely, so I'm confident in all of this. Things CAN change (pay attention to: DGA PGA Critics Choice SAG and BAFTA) but as of right now, it looks like this IMO.

Not even sure Cooper will get nominated for Best Actor.  He was decidedly meh and Maestro was a pretty bad movie.

The entire reason Maestro was made was to get Bradley Cooper an Oscar. It probably doesn’t have the steam to get there all the way, but when you’re as well liked in Hollywood as Cooper seems to be, this type of thing generally garners at least a nomination.
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« Reply #420 on: January 09, 2024, 04:01:40 PM »
« Edited: January 10, 2024, 11:17:48 AM by Chancellor Tanterterg »


Oppenheimer is 90% or higher chance to win Director. If it somehow loses, I THINK Flower Moon would be the second in line to win, but honestly that's not 100% clear at this point. There's some world out there where Oppenheimer loses against all odds and the movie that wins isn't Flower Moon.

In terms of Actor... Cillian Murphy, Bradley Cooper and Paul Giamatti are the three guys fighting to win this award. Leonardo DiCaprio and Jeffrey Wright are both likely to be nominated, but not with a good chance to win.

Flower Moon's best chances to win a (big, non-tech) Oscar is Actress, by far.

Adapted Screenplay is probably it's second best chance, but it's odds are not good.

Director would be third best chance.

Actor and Supporting Actor are very tiny chances to win. But good chance to get nominated.


All of this is based on what internet nerds are predicting, past precedents, etc. Take it with a grain of salt if you want. Sadly, I follow this kind of closely, so I'm confident in all of this. Things CAN change (pay attention to: DGA PGA Critics Choice SAG and BAFTA) but as of right now, it looks like this IMO.

Not even sure Cooper will get nominated for Best Actor.  He was decidedly meh and Maestro was a pretty bad movie.

The entire reason Maestro was made was to get Bradley Cooper an Oscar. It probably doesn’t have the steam to get there all the way, but when you’re as well liked in Hollywood as Cooper seems to be, this type of thing generally garners at least a nomination.


Maybe, but it was a really bad movie.  I don’t usually have to repeatedly rewind a movie due to falling asleep multiple times out of sheer boredom.  And Cooper’s performance wasn’t anything special, although it wasn’t an embarrassment like whatever Carey Mulligan was doing.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #421 on: January 10, 2024, 03:08:47 AM »

The entire reason Maestro was made was to get Bradley Cooper an Oscar. It probably doesn’t have the steam to get there all the way, but when you’re as well liked in Hollywood as Cooper seems to be, this type of thing generally garners at least a nomination.

Are there really so many people in Hollywood who think that Cooper is overdue for an Oscar? I don't think so. If Glenn Close and Chadwick Boseman couldn't get sympathy awards then I doubt that Cooper will succeed.
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #422 on: January 22, 2024, 10:31:39 AM »

Oscar nominations coming in 22 hours.

FINAL PREDICTIONS

PICTURE
Oppenheimer, The Holdovers, Barbie, Killers Of The Flower Moon, Poor Things, Anatomy Of A Fall, Past Lives, American Fiction, Maestro, The Zone Of Interest

DIRECTOR
Oppenheimer, Killers Of The Flower Moon, Poor Things, The Holdovers, Anatomy Of A Fall

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Holdovers, Anatomy Of A Fall, Past Lives, Maestro, May December

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Barbie, American Fiction, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Killers Of The Flower Moon

ACTRESS
Poor Things, Killers Of The Flower Moon, Maestro, Barbie, Anatomy Of A Fall

ACTOR
The Holdovers, Oppenheimer, Maestro, American Fiction, Rustin

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The Holdovers, The Color Purple, Oppenheimer, Nyad, Ferrari

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Oppenheimer, Barbie, Killers Of The Flower Moon, Poor Things, American Fiction
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #423 on: January 23, 2024, 08:24:39 AM »
« Edited: January 23, 2024, 08:28:51 AM by Chancellor Tanterterg »

Final Oscar Predictions:

* = a lock

Picture:
American Fiction
*Anatomy of a Fall
*Barbie
*The Holdovers
*Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
*Oppenheimer
*Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Alternate: All of Us Strangers

Actor:
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
*Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
*Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Alternate: Coleman Domingo (Rustin)

Actress:
*Lilly Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
*Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
Margot Robbie (Barbie)
*Emma Stone (Poor Things)

Alternate: Greta Lee (Past Lives)

Director:
Greta Gerwig (Barbie)
Yargos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
*Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
*Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)

Alternate: Justine Trier (Anatomy of a Fall)

Adapted Screenplay:
*American Fiction
*Barbie (absurd categorization that no one but AMPAS agrees with)
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
*Poor Things

Alternate: The Zone of Interest

Original Screenplay:
*Anatomy of a Fall
*The Holdovers
*May December
Maestro
Past Lives

Alternate: Saltburn

Supporting Actor:
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
*Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
*Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Alternate: Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)

Supporting Actress:
*Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
*Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
Jodie Foster (NYAD)
Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers)
*Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Alternate: Penelope Cruz (Ferrari)

Editing:
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
*Killers of the Flower Moon
*Oppenheimer
*Poor Things

Alternate: The Holdovers

Foreign Film:
Fallen Leaves
Perfect Days
*Society of the Snow
The Taste of Things ( Roll Eyes )
*The Zone of Interest

Alternate: The Teacher’s Lounge
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Sestak
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« Reply #424 on: January 23, 2024, 09:11:32 AM »

Nyad just had to eat two spots and ruin everyone’s day, huh.
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