Oppenheimer wins 7 Oscars (Best Picture) (film & awards)

[T'Chenka]

Anyone else think talking about and commenting on the nominees without listing them or linking to them is weird?

I planned to post them here but got busy with life.

ALL NOMINEES
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/95th_Academy_Awards

Everything Everywhere All At Once or The Banshees Of Inisherin will win Best Picture. Top Gun: Maverick is the unlikely underdog 3rd choice. TÁR and The Fabelmans are theoretically also possible but very unlikely. If the Academy smokes crack, Elvis or All Quiet On The Western Front could win on a 1 in 1,000 chance. Avatar 2, Triangle Of Sadness and Women Talking have no chance at all to win.

As always, the Picture winner almost always wins Director or one of the Screenplay awards. On the rare occasion something wins without that, it will have at least an acting win.

[T'Chenka]

'Everything Everywhere All at Once' dominates at SAG Awards

The unlikely awards season juggernaut “Everything Everywhere All at Once” marched on at the Screen Actors Guild Awards on Sunday, and even gathered stream with wins not just for best ensemble, Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan but also for Jamie Lee Curtis.

The SAG Awards, often an Oscar preview, threw some curve balls into the Oscars race in a ceremony streamed lived on Netflix's YouTube page from Fairmont Century Plaza in Los Angeles.

But the clearest result of the SAG Awards was the overwhelming success of Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert's madcap multiverse tale, which has now used its hotdog fingers to snag top honours from the acting, directing and producing guilds. Only one film ("Apollo 13") had won all three and not gone on to win best picture at the Oscars.

[T'Chenka]

We've now had the DGA, BAFTA, PGA and SAG awards. Next weekend will be the screenplay guild awards (WGA) and then Sunday March 12th (in 13 days) we have the Academy Awards ceremony.

BEST PICTURE

Everything Everywhere All At Once is positioned as the strong favourite now. As long as it wins Director (expected) or Original Screenplay (possible), it should win Best Picture. It may need an acting win too, but luckily Quan has Supporting Actor pretty much locked up at this point.

All Quiet On The Western Front has SOME potential to upset, but it would require it winning several Oscars, and it would NEED to win the Adapted Screenplay award to have any sort of real chance at Best Picture.

The Banshees Of Inisherin has SOME potential to upset, though it doesn't seem like it has a good shot anymore. This would require winning the Original Screenplay award (which is expected), and probably it would also need Supporting Actress or Actor. Both of these acting wins are possible but neither is likely.

TAR is very very unlikely but theoretically possible with a Director/Screenplay + Actress win combo.

The Fabelmans is very very unlikely but theoretically possible. Would need to win Director (possible but unlikely) and one of the acting awards (very unlikely).

Top Gun Maverick and Elvis are both insanely likely to win. Maverick has maybe 2% chance and Elvis has maybe 1% chance.

Avatar 2, Triangle Of Sadness and Women Talking will not win. They don't even have a crazy longshot chance.

[AelroseB]

Any final predictions?  For me:

Best Picture: Everything Everywhere all at Once (would personally vote for Banshees)
Director: The Daniels (Would personally vote for Field)
Actress: Yeoh
Actor: Butler (I'd either vote Fraser or Farrell)
Supporting Actress: Pure tossup, but going with Bassett (would vote Condon or Chau)
Supporting Actor: Quan
International Feature Film: All Quiet (would vote for Quiet Girl)
Animated Feature Film: Pinocchio
Original Screenplay: Everything Everywhere all at Once (would vote Banshees)
Adapted Screenplay: Women Talking (would vote Living)

I really love this year's acting and BP lineups.  Top Gun Maverick was my favorite moviegoing experience, although I felt Banshees was the artistic best of the year, in my very subjective opinion.
 
Finally seeing Triangle of Sadness right before Oscars night, too.

EDIT: I liked ToS, although I feel like the "seasickness" in Act 2 was a little (a lot) too much, the whole sequence just lasting way too long, and its humor wearing off after a couple minutes.

[Pyro]

Love Academy Awards season, even if the Billy Crystal era trounces the shows nowadays

Best Picture: Leaning Everything Everywhere as the winner. There is a possibility for an upset by one of the other contenders, though. I've seen Banshees, Top Gun, Fabelmans, and Elvis so far, and I plan to check out the All Quiet remake on Netflix sometime this weekend, too.

Director: Kwan and Scheinert probably win this.
Actor: Either Fraser or Butler.
Supporting Actor: Quan, unless Banshees is favored more than expected.
Actress: I do think Yeoh has this one.
Supporting Actress: I'd love to see Jamie Lee Curtis take it, though I think Bassett wins.
Animated: Rooting hard for Puss in Boots! :>

[T'Chenka]

What is likely happening Sunday night :

BEST PICTURE
Very likely - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Unlikely - The Banshees Of Inisherin
Unlikely - All Quiet On The Western Front

BEST DIRECTOR
Likely - Everything Everywhere All At Once (Daniels)
Unlikely - The Fabelmans (Steven Spielberg)
Very unlikely - TAR (Todd Field)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Likely - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Likely - The Banshees Of Inisherin

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Likely - Women Talking
Possible - All Quiet On The Western Front

BEST ACTRESS
Likely - Cate Blanchett (TAR)
Likely - Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

BEST ACTOR
Likely - Austin Butler (Elvis)
Likely - Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Unlikely - Colin Farrell (The Banshees Of Inisherin)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Possible - Kerry Condon (The Banshees Of Inisherin)
Possible - Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Unlikely - Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Extremely likely - Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Extremely unlikely - Barry Keoghan (The Banshees Of Inisherin)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Very likely - All Quiet On The Western Front
Unlikely - Argentina, 1985
Very unlikely - The Quiet Girl

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Very likely - Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Unlikely - Puss In Boots: The Last Wish
Unlikely - Marcel The Shell With Shoes On

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Likely - Navalny
Possible - Fire Of Love
Possible - All That Breathes

[nicholas.slaydon]

Predictions:
Best Picture: Everything, Everywhere, All at Once
Best Director: The Daniels
Best Original Screenplay: Everything, Everywhere, All at Once
Best Adapted Screenplay: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Actor: Austin Butler
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Jamie Lee Curtis
Best Animated Feature: Pinocchio
Best International Film: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Documentary Feature: Navalny
Best Film Editing: Everything, Everywhere, All at Once


What I want to Win:
Best Picture: Everything, Everywhere, All at Once
Best Director: The Daniels
Best Original Screenplay: Everything, Everywhere, All at Once
Best Adapted Screenplay: Living
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh
Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Jamie Lee Curtis
Best Animated Feature: Marcell the Shell With Shoes On
Best International Film: Close
Best Film Editing: Everything, Everywhere, All at Once

[Mr. Smith]

Puss in Boots is probably gonna win for Animated Feature. Dreamworks is the usual go-to if Pixar/Disney slack.

I'm more interested in The Razzies tbh.

[T'Chenka]

Puss in Boots is probably gonna win for Animated Feature. Dreamworks is the usual go-to if Pixar/Disney slack.

Almost all of the "precursor" awards shows that lead up to the Oscars gave the award to Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio. It's probably got around an 80% to 90% chance of winning.

more specifically :
- animation guild (forget the name)
- Golden Globes Wards
- Critics Choice Awards
- BAFTA awards

[T'Chenka]

Any final predictions?

95TH OSCARS
FINAL PREDICTIONS

PICTURE
Everything Everywhere All At Once
DIRECTOR
Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Banshees Of Inisherin
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Women Talking

ACTRESS
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
ACTOR
Austin Butler (Elvis)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kerry Condon (The Banshees Of Inisherin)
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
All Quiet On The Western Front
ANIMATED FEATURE
Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Navalny

EDITING
Everything Everywhere All At Once
VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar: The Way Of Water
CINEMATOGRAPHY
All Quiet On The Western Front

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Babylon
COSTUMES
Elvis
MAKEUP & HAIR
Elvis

SOUND
Top Gun: Maverick
ORIGINAL SCORE
All Quiet On The Western Front
ORIGINAL SONG
Naatu Naatu (RRR)

LIVE-ACTION SHORT
An Irish Goodbye
ANIMATED SHORT
My Year Of Dicks
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Stranger At The Gate

OSCAR WINS
5 - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3 - All Quiet On The Western Front
3 - Elvis
2 - The Banshees Of Inisherin

[AelroseB]

I am so excited for tonight's show--I haven't been anticipating an Oscars night as much as I have since the King's Speech year.

What a great year of films we had, in retrospect.

[Sestak]

Never watched one of these in full before. How long is Jimothy Kimmel going to go on for?

[AelroseB]

Pinocchio was a really wonderful win.  Lovely speeches by the recipients.

[Pyro]

First upset with the Jamie Lee Curtis win!
Looking increasingly likely we get an "Everything, Everywhere" sweep.

[morgankingsley]

To be honest, this year seems to have a stronger list of films than some previous years, such as Pinnochio winning best animated, and the nominations of Maverick for best picture (which I doubt it will win, but I do respect the fact that it at least got nomianted). Also nice to see that Jamie Lee Curtis is able to get a get a solid career outside of being the lead in Halloween, as I didn't know her film existed until now.

Morgan Kingsley -

March 12 2023

[Cokeland Saxton]

*EDT

[Sestak]

And there's the sweep. Wow.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

EEAAO was an amazing film, one of the best I've ever seen. The sweep was so unbelievably deserved and I'm so happy for Michelle Yeoh.

One of the best Oscar's ever, imo.

[T'Chenka]

EEAAO is the third movie ever to win 3 acting Oscars. However, the first two - A Street Car Named Desire 1951 and Network 1976 - did not win Best Picture. Therefore, EEAAO is the first ever Best Picture winner to win more than 2 acting Oscars.

[T'Chenka]

7 out of the 8 "above the line" categories - the "biggest" and "most important" awards - were won by A24 Studios films. It won Picture, Director, Original Screenplay and all 4 acting awards. Only Adapted Screenplay was won by a different studio, MGM.

As a massive fan of A24 Studios, this makes me happy.

[Sestak]

7 out of the 8 "above the line" categories - the "biggest" and "most important" awards - were won by A24 Studios films. It win Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actor. Only Adapted Screenplay was won by a different studio, MGM.

As a massive fan of A24 Studios, this makes me happy.

Of all the categories open to live-action, English-language, feature length films, A24 won an absolute majority - 9 of 17. Incredible performance.

[LabourJersey]

Happy for the actors in EEAAO (I thought the acting was great, even though the movie as a whole was 10% too weird for my taste, in spite of great scenes).

Very sad to see Banshees of Inisherin walk away with nothing. As a huge fan of the movie (and of Irish drama in general) it's very unfortunate.

Haven't yet seen Tar (I plan to soon) but also surprised it won nothing.

[Santander]

Another step towards Asians claiming their rightful place in the Western cultural zeitgeist.

[Ferguson97]

EEAAO deserved the win. My only major complaint is that Stephanie Hsu deserved the best supporting role over Jamie Lee Curtis.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Yeah this is a movie that I kind of had in mind to see but never got around to...I guess I need to now.