Oppenheimer wins 7 Oscars (Best Picture) (film & awards)

[T'Chenka]

I still can't comprehend what cinematic greatness people see in Joker that eludes me.
Philips got a nomination just because he aped Scorsese good enough?
A screenplay nominated for having a message that it's ok if you are mentally and don't take your medicine and/or it's ok to kill rich people if you think they wronged you?

First off, let me just say that I think Joker is a fairly good and well-made movie, but that I also think it's overrated relative to the massive hype. So I wouldn't say I'm an unobjective fanboy.

- Phoenix gives a GREAT performance

- The score and cinematography are very good

JOKER SPOILERS BELOW (no major spoilers but "medium" spoilers)

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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- This is all just my opinion

- The "message" that you offered is NOT what the movie is saying in my opinion, rather what people have been fearing the audience might misinterpret the meaning of the movie as. We aren't supposed to think Arthur is the hero, rather a victim (AND a terrible monster). The movie is a criticism of austerity and small government, as well as the self-centered and unempathetic aspects of our society. There is a dash of class warfare thrown in.

The movie does NOT take Arthur's side, it's simply showing us that we as a community can't ignore and s__t all over people who are ill and then take away their therapy and medications and expect that one or two of those people aren't going to eventually blow up in our faces. The Joker was inevitable. If not Arthur, then somebody else some other time. When we create these conditions in our society, we are creating a ticking time bomb. We understand exactly why Joker feels the way he does and we are shown why his outlook is justified. Obviously the solutions he embraces to those problems are totally unacceptable and we don't condone it, but we understand why.

[GoTfan]

I have only seen 'Marriage Story' and 'The Irishman' of all the nominees...and 'How To train Your Dragon 3,' so I don't have too many stakes in this year's ceremony. All I can say is that I'm surprised that the Academy didn't give a shock Best Actor nod to Adam Sandler in 'Uncut Gems' and that 'Frozen II' didn't get nominated for Best Animated Feature. Everything else seems about in line with my expectations.

I'm also glad that there is no host again. That format worked really well last year in my opinion. It kept a better flow and helped the ceremony move faster.

Nostalgia Critic made a video a while back that even on the rare occasion Sandler makes a good film, he gets no consideration for it because important people feel like they have to hate it.

That's a skin-deep reading at best though, so take it with a grain of salt.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Joker's only deserved nominations are Phoenix, art direction, and cinematography. Even the much praised score is generic tripe IMHO. I couldn't remember a single note the moment I left the theater.

Arthur becomes the hero by default because every other character in the movie is a horrible human being (which is another one of my big problems with the film).

And when it comes to politics Phillips wants to eat his cake and have it too. On one hand he clearly has a political message, even if it's presented in a superficial and heavy-handed way, but on the other he has Arthur declaring that he is just an apolitical clown.  

[T'Chenka]

And when it comes to politics Phillips wants to eat his cake and have it too. On one hand he clearly has a political message, even if it's presented in a superficial and heavy-handed way, but on the other he has Arthur declaring that he is just an apolitical clown.  

I picked up Joker on Bluray last week and watched the special features. Phillips claims that his singular vision was to show how a guy like Joker can become Joker in a completely real character study devoid of fantasy or comic elements. There are very clearly political themes and messages in the movie, but IF we take Phillips at his word, this message isn't important to him outside of the fact that it best serves his stated goal. He even specifically states in one of the special features that he "wasn't trying to make a political commentary".

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Quite a good year. Hopefully Tarantino wins some awards (did he ever win best director?), and Parasite does well, but they're guaranteed one award, that of best foreign film. I have to watch all movies except Parasite, but i'll do certainly in time.

[T'Chenka]

Quite a good year. Hopefully Tarantino wins some awards (did he ever win best director?), and Parasite does well, but they're guaranteed one award, that of best foreign film. I have to watch all movies except Parasite, but i'll do certainly in time.

Tarantino hasn't won Director yet, no.

The only movies since the 1950s to win Director without also winning Picture:
1967 - The Graduate
1972 - Cabaret
1981 - Reds
1989 - Born On The Fourth Of July
1998 - Saving Private Ryan
2000s - Traffic + The Pianist + Brokeback Mountain
2010s - Life Of Pi + Gravity + The Revenant + La La Land + Roma

Hollywood's the favourite to win Original Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor, so Tarantino getting at least one Oscar this year is extremely likely.

[GoTfan]

And when it comes to politics Phillips wants to eat his cake and have it too. On one hand he clearly has a political message, even if it's presented in a superficial and heavy-handed way, but on the other he has Arthur declaring that he is just an apolitical clown.  

I picked up Joker on Bluray last week and watched the special features. Phillips claims that his singular vision was to show how a guy like Joker can become Joker in a completely real character study devoid of fantasy or comic elements. There are very clearly political themes and messages in the movie, but IF we take Phillips at his word, this message isn't important to him outside of the fact that it best serves his stated goal. He even specifically states in one of the special features that he "wasn't trying to make a political commentary".

I would be very, very careful about taking directors at their word. How many times did Romero flip-flop on Night of the Living Dead?

[Don Vito Corleone]

What does the Best Director race look like?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What does the Best Director race look like?

Probably a toss-up between Tarantino, Bong-Joon Ho, and Mendes with the latter two being slightly favored.  Small chance that Scorsese wins here, but that means The Irishman is already winning Best Adapted Screenplay, BP, and perhaps even Best Supporting Actor.  Phillips is the only one with no shot, but the nomination is the win for him here.  

Anyway, key take-aways:

- Joker's performance is a great example of how the Academy's very weird voting system often favors relatively mainstream contenders that are still much rougher-around-the-edges than typical Oscar fare and thus have a really passionate support base in the academy...albeit one that is numerically too small to win in most categories (The Wolf of Wall Street is another great example of this sort of surprise over-performance).  Joker probably wins Best Actor and maybe Best Original Score, but nothing else.

- Marriage Story is tanking hard

- Glad De Niro didn't get a lazy (and quite undeserved) nomination

- Taika Waititi's Best Director miss means no BP win for Jojo Rabbit, but I do think it'll get Best Adapted Screenplay as a consolation prize.  As I suspected, the Academy and guilds clearly liked it far more than the critics did.  

- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is the slight BP frontrunner

- Parasite doesn't have the below the line branch support to win BP imo.  It needs to win Best Ensemble (SAG) or Best Picture at the PGA to have any shot there.

- The 1917 surge is real and Mendes probably has a small lead for Best Director, but it depends whether more people want to reward 1917 or Parasite with a consolation prize...or if Tarantino is just running the board (less likely).  

- Frozen II missed

- Kitbull got nominated for best animated short

- Glad to see The Lighthouse get a much deserved cinematography nod

- American Factory is probably winning Best Documentry

- Really annoyed Luptia N'yongo missed for Best Actress

- Us, The Farewell, and Uncut Gems got completely shut out

[Hindsight was 2020]

I can’t believe I would ever say this but Adam Sandler got an undeserved Oscar snub

[Progressive Pessimist]

I have only seen 'Marriage Story' and 'The Irishman' of all the nominees...and 'How To train Your Dragon 3,' so I don't have too many stakes in this year's ceremony. All I can say is that I'm surprised that the Academy didn't give a shock Best Actor nod to Adam Sandler in 'Uncut Gems' and that 'Frozen II' didn't get nominated for Best Animated Feature. Everything else seems about in line with my expectations.

I'm also glad that there is no host again. That format worked really well last year in my opinion. It kept a better flow and helped the ceremony move faster.

Nostalgia Critic made a video a while back that even on the rare occasion Sandler makes a good film, he gets no consideration for it because important people feel like they have to hate it.

That's a skin-deep reading at best though, so take it with a grain of salt.

It's true. Nine out of ten times Adam Sandler pisses me off and I hate most of his movies and his entire lazy process and reasoning for making them (at least most of the ones from 2000 on, starting with 'Little Nicky,' I liked most of his 1990's comedies) but when he acts in a movie where a real director can get a good performance out of him, he really can be great. 'Punch-Drunk Love' and 'The Meyerowitz Stories' come to mind. I haven't seen 'Uncut Gems' but the directors of that film, the Safdi Brothers, directed 'Good Time' and seem to have very unique visions. A good director can work wonders for an unconventional actor. Tyler Perry was actually very good in 'Gone Girl' to give another example, even though he is atrocious in his own films.

 I fully believe that Sandler was great in the film, and I hope to see it at some point, but it is possible that wanting to give him an accolade for it dredges up memories of 'Jack and Jill.' I almost can't blame them, though he should earn some credit for being able to be a quality part of quality films from time to time.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It's the same thing that happened to Jim Carrey when he gave some good performances in  quality movies. The Oscars snubbed him because voters were thinking about "Ace Ventura" and "Dumb and Dumber".

[T'Chenka]

Okay, so we all know for sure who the nominees are now. Anybody want to share their predictions?


Post-Nominations Pre-PGA Pre-BAFTA Oscar Predictions

I was going to wait until after the BAFTAs to do final predictions, but I want to do a third one now and the post-BAFTAs one will be my fourth and final predictions. This is what I PREDICT, not what I'm hoping or cheering for. Otherwise Parasite would have won Original Screenplay and Best Picture and Florence Pugh and Adam Driver would win their acting categories.

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BEST PICTURE
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

BEST DIRECTOR
1917

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman

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BEST ACTOR
Joker - Joaquin Phoenix

BEST ACTRESS
Judy - Renee Zellweger

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood - Brad Pitt

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Marriage Story - Laura Dern

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BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Parasite

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Toy Story 4

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Factory

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BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Irishman

BEST EDITING
Parasite

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BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Once Upon A Time In Holywood

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Little Women

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Bombshell

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BEST SOUND EDITING
1917

BEST SOUND MIXING
1917

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Joker

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Rocketman - (I'm Gonna) Love Me Again

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BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Brotherhood

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Hair Love

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Learning To Skateboard In A Warzone (If You're A Girl)

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4 Oscars - Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, 1917
2 Oscars - Parasite, The Irishman, Joker
1 Oscar  - Marriage Story, Little Women, Judy, Bombshell, Rocketman
... and 1 Oscar each to winners of Animated, Documentary and the 3 short film categories

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[T'Chenka]

1917 was awarded Best Picture last night by the Producer's Guild. This increases the odds that 1917 will win at the Oscars, as they both tend to pick the same film for Best Picture (in the last few decades) about 65% of the time.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Same as yours except 1917 as Best Picture.

Cinematography is correct.

Has Brad Pitt ever won an Oscar.

It's a shame Lighthouse was snubbed.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Same as yours except 1917 as Best Picture.

Cinematography is correct.

Has Brad Pitt ever won an Oscar.

It's a shame Lighthouse was snubbed.

Brad Pitt won Best Picture; he was one of the producers of 12 Years Slave.

[T'Chenka]

Phoenix, Zellweger, Pitt and Dern won the four Oscar-equivelant acting categories tonight at the Screen Actors Guild awards. All four of thenm also won Golden Globes and countless smaller awards this year as well.

I think it's safe to say they'll probably win the 4 acting awards at the Oscars, which puts even more intrigue and focus on Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Director and Picture.

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EDIT - The biggest award of the night, "Outstanding Performance By A Cast In A Motion Picture" went to Parasite (!!!). If you look back at the last 20+ years, any movie that doesn't win the PGA (which was 1917 this year) but still wants to win Best Picture at the Oscars usually needs to win DGA (coming Saturday) or this award.

Last week it was looking like Once Upon A Time In Hollywood was "in the lead", but this weekend 1917 and Parasitr both gained lots of momentum. It's really a three way race now. This weekend has been bad news for people hoping for an Irishman win this year. It's more of a long shot every day.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Phoenix, Zellweger, Pitt and Dern won the four Oscar-equivelant acting categories tonight at the Screen Actors Guild awards. All four of thenm also won Golden Globes and countless smaller awards this year as well.

I think it's safe to say they'll probably win the 4 acting awards at the Oscars, which puts even more intrigue and focus on Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Director and Picture.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

EDIT - The biggest award of the night, "Outstanding Performance By A Cast In A Motion Picture" went to Parasite (!!!). If you look back at the last 20+ years, any movie that doesn't win the PGA (which was 1917 this year) but still wants to win Best Picture at the Oscars usually needs to win DGA (coming Saturday) or this award.

Last week it was looking like Once Upon A Time In Hollywood was "in the lead", but this weekend 1917 and Parasitr both gained lots of momentum. It's really a three way race now. This weekend has been bad news for people hoping for an Irishman win this year. It's more of a long shot every day.

I still say Parasite is a long-shot and it’s a two-way race between 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

[T'Chenka]

Phoenix, Zellweger, Pitt and Dern won the four Oscar-equivelant acting categories tonight at the Screen Actors Guild awards. All four of thenm also won Golden Globes and countless smaller awards this year as well.

I think it's safe to say they'll probably win the 4 acting awards at the Oscars, which puts even more intrigue and focus on Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Director and Picture.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

EDIT - The biggest award of the night, "Outstanding Performance By A Cast In A Motion Picture" went to Parasite (!!!). If you look back at the last 20+ years, any movie that doesn't win the PGA (which was 1917 this year) but still wants to win Best Picture at the Oscars usually needs to win DGA (coming Saturday) or this award.

Last week it was looking like Once Upon A Time In Hollywood was "in the lead", but this weekend 1917 and Parasitr both gained lots of momentum. It's really a three way race now. This weekend has been bad news for people hoping for an Irishman win this year. It's more of a long shot every day.

I still say Parasite is a long-shot and it’s a two-way race between 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

I'm not saying I agree with this, but I've seen sone Reddit chatter today that Once Upon A Time In Hollywood is now the distant third after losing both the PGA award and the SAG ensemble award to 1917 and Parasite respectively.

https://www.reddit.com/r/oscarrace/comments/erg976/is_once_upon_a_time_in_hollywood_out_of_the_best/

[T'Chenka]

EXTREMELY Early 2021 Best Picture talk (Jan 2020)

The Oscars are almost here and I thought I would share which 2020 films I think will be going to the 2021 Oscars next year. Obviously at this point, this is impossible to predict and just for fun. Both lists are in alphabetical order.


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5 films most likely to be top contenders for BEST PICTURE
Bernstein (Bradley Cooper)
Mank (David Fincher) ... (Netflix)
Nightmare Alley (Guillermo Del Toro)
The French Dispatch (Wes Anderson)
The Last Duel (Ridley Scott)

15 films most likely to get in to BEST PICTURE or almost get in
Ammonite (Francis Lee)
Blonde (Andrew Dominik)... (Netflix)
Da 5 Bloods (Spike Lee)... (Netflix)
Dune (Denis Villeneuve)
In The Heights (Jon M. Chu)
News Of The World (Paul Greengrass)
Next Goal Wins (Taika Waititi)
Nomadland (Chloe Zhao)
On The Rocks (Sofia Coppola)... (Apple Plus)
Respect (Liesl Tommy)
Stillwater (Tom McCarthy)
Tenet (Christopher Nolan)
The Last Thing He Wanted (Dee Rees)... (Netflix)
The Trial Of The Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin)
West Side Story (Steven Spielberg)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The Last Thing He Ever Wanted is a The Accountant-type commercial thriller, not an awards play.  Also, I keep reading rumors that The Last Duel has some really gross/problematic gender politics (specifically regarding a rape scene).  I mean, it was written by Matt Damon and Ben Affleck, but IIRC the initial script somehow raised so many eyebrows (in Hollywood, so that tells you how bad it was) that the studio pressured them to hire a female co-screenwriter to help clean it up.  Did she succeed?  We’ll see, but I don’t know that I’d call it a top-tier BP contender until we know how this likely controversy shakes out. 

[T'Chenka]

The Last Thing He Ever Wanted is a The Accountant-type commercial thriller, not an awards play.  Also, I keep reading rumors that The Last Duel has some really gross/problematic gender politics (specifically regarding a rape scene).  I mean, it was written by Matt Damon and Ben Affleck, but IIRC the initial script somehow raised so many eyebrows (in Hollywood, so that tells you how bad it was) that the studio pressured them to hire a female co-screenwriter to help clean it up.  Did she succeed?  We’ll see, but I don’t know that I’d call it a top-tier BP contender until we know how this likely controversy shakes out.  

Thanks for this info, all very interesting.


The one's I'm most excited for are NIGHTMARE ALLEY and THE FRENCH DISPATCH. The amount of talent in each movie is crazy.


NIGHTMARE ALLEY
- Guillermo Del Toro (director, co-writer)
- Bradley Cooper
- Toni Colette
- Cate Blanchett
- Willam Dafoe
- Roonie Mara
- Richard Jenkins (not confirmed)
- Ron Perlman (not confirmed)


THE FRENCH DISPATCH
- Wes Anderson (director, writer)
- Frances McDormand
- Bill Murray
- Tilda Swinton
- Timothy Chalamet
- Saoirse Ronan
- Willam Dafoe
- Kate Winslet
- Benicio Del Toro
- Christoph Waltz
- Adrian Brody
- Jeffrey Wright
- Owen Wilson
- Henry Winkler
- Lea Seydoux
- Jason Schwartzman
- Bob Babalan
- Fisher Stevens

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

And now it's time to play If I had an Oscar Ballot...

Note #1: I considered Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) and Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes) co-leads in their respective films.

Note #2: I still haven't seen Clemency, Richard Jewell, The Kingmaker, American Dharma, or One Child Nation

Best Picture
1. Marriage Story
2. Jojo Rabbit
3. 1917
4. Uncut Gems
5. The Report
6. Us
7. Ford v Ferrari
8. Booksmart
9. Joker
10. Pet Sematary

Best Actor
1. Roman Griffin Davis - Jojo Rabbit
2. Adam Driver - The Report

3. Adam Sandler - Uncut Gems
4. Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse
5. Joaquin Phoenix - Joker

Best Actress
1. Lupita Nyong’o - Us

2. Elisabeth Moss - Her Smell
3. Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
4. Aisling Franciosi - The Nightingale
5. Saoirse Ronan - Little Women

Best Director
1. 1917
2. Uncut Gems
3. Marriage Story
4. Us
5. Jojo Rabbit

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Jojo Rabbit
2. The Farewell
3. The Report
4. Joker
5. Pet Sematary


Best Original Screenplay
1. Marriage Story
2. Booksmart
3. Us
4. Parasite
5. Honey Boy

Best Supporting Actor
1. Sam Clafin - The Nightingale

2. Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

3. Baykali Ganambarr - The Nightingale
4. Ray Liotta - Marriage Story


5. Bill Hader - IT: Chapter 2

Best Supporting Actress
1. Amy Seimetz - Pet Sematary
2. Laura Dern - Marriage Story
3. Jeté Laurence - Pet Sematary
4. Zhao Shuzhen - The Farewell

5. Rebecca Ferguson - Doctor Sleep

Best Animated Film
1. Toy Story 4
2. Invader Zim: Enter the Florpus!
3. The Lego Movie: The Second Part

4. I Lost My Body
5. Frozen II  

Best Documentary
1. American Factory
2. Where’s My Roy Cohn?
3. Honeyland
4. Fyre
5. Hail Satan?

Best Foreign Film
1. Parasite (South Korea)
2. Les Misérables (France)

3. Honeyland (North Macedonia)
4. Tel Aviv on Fire (Luxembourg)
5. Pain and Glory (Spain)

Best Original Score
1. 1917
2. Joker
3. Us
4. The Lighthouse
5. IT: Chapter 2

Best Original Song
1. (I’m Gonna) Love Me Again - Rocketman
2. Stand Up - Harriet
3. Speechless - Aladdin
4. The Hide and Seek Song - Ready Or Not
5. The Buddi Song - Child’s Play

Best Film Editing
1. Ford v Ferrari

2. The Report
3. 1917
4. Uncut Gems
5. Us

Best Cinematography
1. 1917
2. The Lighthouse
3. Midsommar
4. Ford v Ferrari
5. Jojo Rabbit

Best Visual Effects
1. The Irishman
2. Shazam!

3. The Lion King
4. Pet Sematary
5. Detective Pikachu

Best Sound Editing
1. Ford v Ferrari
2. Shazam!
3. Child’s Play

4. Pet Sematary
5. Us

Best Sound Mixing
1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Uncut Gems
4. Rocketman
5. Pet Sematary

Best Makeup
1. Bombshell
2. Us
3. Pet Sematary
4. Child’s Play
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Art Direction
1. Doctor Sleep
2. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
3. Parasite
4. 1917
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Costume Design
1. Rocketman
2. The Two Popes
3. The Nightingale
4. 
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Midsommar

[T'Chenka]

We've got some more awards shows tonight that might hint towards where certain Oscar categories are going. I'll come back and edit this post with the winners of relevant categories.

Director's Guild Awards
- Best Director - 1917

Annie Awards
- Best Animated Feature - Klaus
- Best Animated Short - (not one of the Oscar nominees)

American Society Of Cinematographers Awards
- Best Cinematography - 1917

Cinema Audio Society Awards
- Best Sound Editing - Ford V Ferrari
- Best Sound Mixing - Ford V Ferrari

[HillGoose]

Once Upon A Time In Hollywood is probably one of my top 3 movies of all time. that sh**t banged.