Oppenheimer wins 7 Oscars (Best Picture) (film & awards)

[T'Chenka]

DGA:

1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Jojo Rabbit just might pull off a BP win after all

Happy to see Todd Philips being ignored for his shameless Scorsese rip-off.  

The front-runners are Best Director locks (Parasite Hollywood 1917 Irishman) but that fifth spot is up for grabs. IMO it should realy go to Baumbach, though I would much rather settle for Gerwig or Waititi than Todd Phillips. My money's on Phillips or Gerwig getting it.

[GoTfan]

The Irishman was screwed over, I think

[T'Chenka]

The Irishman was screwed over, I think

The only Golden Globe it should have clear-cut won was Best Picture (Drama), though it was a top contender for Best Director, Best Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor. You can look at it two ways. The movie either (A) under-performed due to the length and pacing of the movie and/or anti-Netflix bias, or (B) the movie did just fine, but the Globes voters just liked 1917 and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood ever so slightly more.

We'll see how the Oscars go, it's not over yet. It's still one of the front-runners.

[T'Chenka]

AMERICAN FACTORY (very mild spoilers only)

This is a Netflix documentary that is considered the primary front-runner for Best Documentary Feature at the Oscars.

This was an interesting film about a Chinese auto glass manufacturer re-oepening an old GM plant in Dayton, Ohio and hiring over one thousand Americans to work there under Chinese management and corporate philosophy. There is a focus on cultural differences in regards to worker's rights.

CRITICISMS
- The movie isn't exactly subtle, but a few scenes or moments could have maybe been given more weight.
- This movie didn't use music or score as well as it could have
- You don't get to connect with some of the workers introduced due to lack of screen time

DESERVES PRAISE
- The stuff with the anti-union managers, presidents and CEO was great. They said this stuff ON CAMERA. Wow.
- Overall well made, well shot, good quality documentary
.
FINAL SCORE
B plus

OSCAR TALK
This is a good documentary, but I feel like it's not strong enough to be the front-runner. Perhaps this is a weak year for feature-length documentaries? The only others I saw were Knock Down The House (almost as good) and Hail Satan? (solid, not Oscar-level), so I don't really know how the best documentaries this year would compare to the best docs in an average year. It will probably win Best Documentary Feature unless it's beaten by Apollo 11, or one of the war dramas (For Sama, The Cave).

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I've only seen the new Pokemon movie and Parasite from this year. Hope Parasite wins, and it's luckily almost guaranteed to win the best foreign language picture which i almost always check anyway. Will watch some other movies like Joker and so on, later.

[GoTfan]

Having seen 1917, I don't really see what all the fuss is about. Visually, it's a stunning film, but that is basically it, from what I saw. I couldn't really get behind the charcters at all. I just found it hard to get into. What i can't get around is why do you hire Colin Firth, Mark Strong and Benedict Cumberbatch, and then give them only a handful of lines and a tiny bit of screentime?

Honestly, it's not a bad film, but I do think it's pretty overrated. I still think Journey's End is a better World War One film. For all the talk of 1917 being about trench warfare, it really wasn't. Journey's End was able to do a lot more with a lot less, and with fewer big names in the cast.

Not a bad film, but vastly overrated and inferior to The Irishman I think. 7/10.

[T'Chenka]

Does anybody care to give a final prediction on which films will be the 8 or 9 or 10 Best Picture nominees for this year's Oscars? They're doing the official announcement on Monday morning.

I'm going to give mine and rank them by how good I thought they were. I'm having a really hard time ranking the movies within each tier.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
PARASITE (10/10)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
MARRIAGE STORY (9.5/10)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD (9/10)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
1917 (8.5/10)
JOJO RABBIT (8.5/10)
THE IRISHMAN (8.5/10)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
JOKER (8/10)
LITTLE WOMEN (8/10)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

predicting no 9th nominee
predicting no 10th nominee

[T'Chenka]

1917 (very mild spoilers only)

This movie has an average screenplay. There is nothing special or "great" about this script. However, this film takes that screenplay and maximizes the hell out of it, with very good acting (not Oscar level), great directing, a great score that is used very well, and god-level cinematography.

Because of the screenplay, I am anticipating a lot of people finding this movie to be overrated. I've seen it already offline and online. You're entited to feel that way. I personally thought this was a great movie, and one of the very best films of 2019.

CRITICISMS
- Screenplay, script
- Acting is very good but nothing mindblowing
- The script doesn't spoonfeed you the drama and emotion
- Some minor characters have quite limited screen time

DESERVES PRAISE
- The acting and the score REALLY worked FOR ME, some may disagree
- The directing is VERY good, and the more you try to figure out how exactly it was directed, the better you realize it was. Might win the Oscar
- The diversity of the cast was just right, not unrealistically diverse to pander to SJWs, but not 100% white either

BEYOND PRAISE, WORSHIP-WORTHY
- The cinematography is mind-blowing

FINAL SCORE (updated)
A  (2 days contemplating = A not A minus)

OSCAR TALK
This is the front-runner for Cinematography, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. Also has a good shot at Best Director, Best Original Score and Production Design. There is some chance for Best Picture and Best Editing.

[GoTfan]

I still think that Journey's End is the way to go for a character-driven WW1 drama.

[T'Chenka]

I still think that Journey's End is the way to go for a character-driven WW1 drama.

I assume you mean the 1930 original and not the very recent remake? Never heard of this film but I'll add it to my list of of films to keep an eye out for. I'm not very knowledgeable on pre-70s cinema.

[GoTfan]

I still think that Journey's End is the way to go for a character-driven WW1 drama.

I assume you mean the 1930 original and not the very recent remake? Never heard of this film but I'll add it to my list of of films to keep an eye out for. I'm not very knowledgeable on pre-70s cinema.

They're both very similar, I can say safely. I mean, they both draw from the same play script.

[T'Chenka]

EDIT - I accidentally edited this post instead of quotong it for copy/paste purposes.

The list of all Oscar nominees for all categories is easily available at Wikipedia.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

In other news, Parasite really underperformed at the critics choice awards which should be its best group.  Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won BP Drama and Best Original Screenplay while Best Director was a tie between 1917 and Parasite.  

[T'Chenka]

In other news, Parasite really underperformed at the critics choice awards which should be its best group.  Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won BP Drama and Best Original Screenplay while Best Director was a tie between 1917 and Parasite.  

Parasite is struggling a bit yeah, whereas The Irishman and Marriage Story are really sinking fast. The PGAs on Saturday and the BAFTAs in three weeks are probably Parasite's last couple of chances to show it can hang with Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (and to a lesser extent 1917).

I think Best Picture at the Oscars will play out one of these ways now:

via Original Screenplay - Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (most likely scenario)
via Director - 1917 or maybe Parasite
via Adapted Screenplay - this winner won't win Best Picture this year, unless it's a huge upset

[T'Chenka]

Thoughts on the Oscar nominations...

- Joker got the most nominations. LOL.
- Hollywood did good but was actually projected to do even better
- Parasite did okay but not as good as some had hoped
- The Academy seems to really like 1917. Screenplay nomination? Wow.
- The Irishman did well as expected, it's losing awards but still getting nominations
- Marriage Story did poorly. It's done, suprassed now by Joker and Jojo Rabbit.
- Jojo Rabbit did VERY well. Long shot for Best Picture via Adapted Screenplay
- Little Women did well, got into Picture and Supporting Actress.

- Jennifer Lopez was snubbed for Cathy Bates. Wow.
- Surprised to see Erivo get in over Awkwafina
- Happy to see The Lighthouse get in for Cinematography, over Parasite though?
- The Farewell and Uncut Gems did terribly, got zero nominations
- Dolemite Is My Name and Rocketman totally collapsed as well, Rocketman got Song
- Jojo Rabbit getting into Editing over Once Upon / Hollywood is confusing to me
- Atlantics snubbed in International for Corpus Christi
- Frozen II snubbed for Klaus
- Apollo 11 snubbed for The Edge Of Democracy is a HUGE snub
- Portrait Of A Lady On Fire got nothing, but we expected that

[Santander]

Only 2019 movies I watched were Official Secrets (good) and Ad Astra (bad). Both on the same flight. In 2020.

[kyc0705]

I have so many gripes with these nominations that I genuinely wouldn't even know where to start (though I did worry that Parasite would underperform, so it even doing on the level with what we expected is actually deeply relieving), so... let's just cut right to early predictions:

- Acting categories are 1000% locked at this point.
- Director might come down to between Bong and Mendes
- Picture is a virtual toss-up, with OUATIH, Parasite, 1917, and Jojo Rabbit all with a chance (but I think in that order if I had to guess). No clue on where this goes until the rest of the precursors.
- Screenplay winners are probably OUATIH and Irishman.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

In other news, Parasite really underperformed at the critics choice awards which should be its best group.  Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won BP Drama and Best Original Screenplay while Best Director was a tie between 1917 and Parasite.  

Parasite is struggling a bit yeah, whereas The Irishman and Marriage Story are really sinking fast. The PGAs on Saturday and the BAFTAs in three weeks are probably Parasite's last couple of chances to show it can hang with Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (and to a lesser extent 1917).

I think Best Picture at the Oscars will play out one of these ways now:

via Original Screenplay - Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (most likely scenario)
via Director - 1917 or maybe Parasite
via Adapted Screenplay - this winner won't win Best Picture this year, unless it's a huge upset

I do think that Jojo Rabbit is probably the most likely to win Best Adapted Screenplay at this point, although Little Women winning wouldn't surprise me.  I actually don't see The Irishman winning at this point, it's slowly going the way of Marriage Story (lots of nominations, but few wins).  I agree though that Jojo Rabbit won't win BP, it needed a Best Director nomination for that to be in the cards imo.  As I've said all along, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood feels like the slight frontrunner for Best Picture.    

Fun fact: If Tarantino wins Best Original Screenplay, I believe he'll have tied Woody Allen's record for most wins in that category.  

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So who's supposedly the frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor? I suppose that Phoenix, Ronan and Johannsen are for Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress respectively.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So who's supposedly the frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor? I suppose that Phoenix, Ronan and Johannsen are for Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress respectively.

Nah, it'll probably be Phoenix, Zellweger, Pitt, and Dern.  Johansson and Pesci could theoretically pull off an upset in Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor, but I doubt it (especially in Pesci's case).

[kyc0705]

Nah, it'll probably be Phoenix, Zellweger, Pitt, and Dern.  Johansson and Pesci could theoretically pull off an upset in Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor, but I doubt it (especially in Pesci's case).

My reading of this is that they're basically all heavy favorites to different degrees: Zellweger and Phoenix win because nobody else can pose a serious enough challenge to rally enough votes—in other words, there's a chance they could lose but it's not clear exactly what that scenario looks like. Pitt even moreso. And in Supporting Actress I can't even imagine how Dern loses, much less who she would lose to. That category is a lock beyond locks.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also while I wasn't expecting any nominations, but Booksmart was snubbed. It should've at least got Best Original Screenplay and Olivia Wilde for Best Director.

[T'Chenka]

So who's supposedly the frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor? I suppose that Phoenix, Ronan and Johannsen are for Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress respectively.

Nah, it'll probably be Phoenix, Zellweger, Pitt, and Dern.  Johansson and Pesci could theoretically pull off an upset in Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor, but I doubt it (especially in Pesci's case).

This is the right answer, but I'd also add Adam Driver and basically all of the Supporting Actress nominees into the "unlikely but possible as an upset" category.

VERY CLEAR FRONTRUNNER - Phoenix, Zellweger, Pitt, Dern
UNLIKELY UPSET PICK - Driver, Johansson, Pesci, (Robbie / Pugh / Johansson / Bates)
DARK HORSE "WTF LOL" LONG SHOT - DiCaprio, Theron, Hanks, (none)

Banderas, Pryce, Ronan, Erivo, Pacino and Hopkins aren't winning jack, I would put good money on it.

Also while I wasn't expecting any nominations, but Booksmart was snubbed. It should've at least got Best Original Screenplay and Olivia Wilde for Best Director.

There was a brief moment last week after the scrrenwriting guild announced nominations where Booksmart looked like it might jump back into the Best Original Screenplay race, but the Oscars had to go and give the 5th nomination to 1917 instead of The Farewell / Booksmart / Uncut Gems.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I have only seen 'Marriage Story' and 'The Irishman' of all the nominees...and 'How To train Your Dragon 3,' so I don't have too many stakes in this year's ceremony. All I can say is that I'm surprised that the Academy didn't give a shock Best Actor nod to Adam Sandler in 'Uncut Gems' and that 'Frozen II' didn't get nominated for Best Animated Feature. Everything else seems about in line with my expectations.

I'm also glad that there is no host again. That format worked really well last year in my opinion. It kept a better flow and helped the ceremony move faster.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I still can't comprehend what cinematic greatness people see in Joker that eludes me.
Philips got a nomination just because he aped Scorsese good enough?
A screenplay nominated for having a message that it's ok if you are mentally and don't take your medicine and/or it's ok to kill rich people if you think they wronged you?