Will Matt Bevin win by more or less than he did in 2015?

[Bidenworth2020]

More. If he’s polling 6-10 ahead now, oof. We know how KY polling is

No poll has said this? Are you seriously trusting Begin' s mind model over the actual polling we have?

Well, Bevin's mind model was certainly more accurate than any poll was in 2015. In fact, my guess is that his mind model actually overestimated the Democrats, lol.

To be clear though, his prediction is not polls. If you want to base your argument off polls, base it off actual polls.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I just saw something interesting on Facebook, which I don't think changes the outlook at all, but it's still pretty funny.

In 2015, Bevin ran on opposing tolls for a yet-to-be-built bridge to Cincinnati. The Tea Party was with him because they wanted a sales tax increase instead, or a completely useless "eastern bypass." But at the debate yesterday, Bevin said he now supports tolls, and now everyone - right, center, and left - is mad.

So someone just posted on Facebook: "I can tell you from being on the ground up here Bevin cost himself the election last night."

It might not hurt him that much, but if the election is close, it might. Still, it would be pretty funny if Bevin lost all because of this.

[Del Tachi]

More, as he'll win by >10pts

[junior chįmp]

Less tbh

[Pericles]

I wonder what Conway-Bevin voters would be thinking, if there is a meaningful amount of them.

[BP🌹]

I wonder what Conway-Bevin voters would be thinking, if there is a meaningful amount of them.

I think that a lot of these new Republican voters in rural areas just simply did a 180 with regard to their political views. Probably the same in Democratic-trending suburbs too.

[Xing]

I wonder what Conway-Bevin voters would be thinking, if there is a meaningful amount of them.

"Big Daddy Trump says Bevin, R good, and D, socialism, immigrants bad, so I'll vote for Bevin."

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I wonder what Conway-Bevin voters would be thinking, if there is a meaningful amount of them.

They're thinking whatever the hell FitzGerald-DeWine voters were thinking.

[lfromnj]

I wonder what Conway-Bevin voters would be thinking, if there is a meaningful amount of them.

The same as the ok gov d 2014 to stitt voters in areas like Coal county.

[Calthrina950]

I wonder what Conway-Bevin voters would be thinking, if there is a meaningful amount of them.

There certainly will be, since Bevin will win most, if not all, of the rural counties that Conway carried. Probably Obama-Trump white working-class voters, or at least "ancestral" Democrats (like those in Elliott County) who believe that the Democratic Party has moved too far to the left, and can no longer detach their local Democrats from the national organization to which they pay allegiance to.

[Pericles]

I wonder what Conway-Bevin voters would be thinking, if there is a meaningful amount of them.

They're thinking whatever the hell FitzGerald-DeWine voters were thinking.

Wow those types of voters existing is crazy.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I wonder what Conway-Bevin voters would be thinking, if there is a meaningful amount of them.

They're thinking whatever the hell FitzGerald-DeWine voters were thinking.

Wow those types of voters existing is crazy.

Monroe County, OH 2014
FitzGerald 51.90%
Kasich 44.25%

Monroe County, OH 2018
DeWine 62.68%
Cordray 34.27%

Crazy is an understatement.

[IceSpear]

I wonder what Conway-Bevin voters would be thinking, if there is a meaningful amount of them.

They're thinking whatever the hell FitzGerald-DeWine voters were thinking.

Wow those types of voters existing is crazy.

Monroe County, OH 2014
FitzGerald 51.90%
Kasich 44.25%

Monroe County, OH 2018
DeWine 62.68%
Cordray 34.27%

Crazy is an understatement.

Even crazier: Adam Laxalt did 50 points worse than Brian Sandoval and two rural counties still managed to swing R!



#trendsareVERYreal

[Flyersfan232]

52 Bevin 47 besher 1 for the lib who name isn’t important